[h=1]NFL betting value in Week 12[/h][h=3]Playing underdogs with against-the-spread win rates of 25 percent or less[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Last week, we returned to a staple of our contrarian betting strategy, the 80/20 betting system, and took advantage of the value created by one-sided public betting. Despite an ugly result regarding our Philadelphia-Green Bay play, the other two matchups -- St. Louis (plus-9.5) vs. Denver and Tennessee (plus-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh -- covered, putting us at 2-1 against the spread for the week while improving our 2014 season record to 19-13 ATS for a 59.4 percent win rate.
Looking ahead to Week 12, we'll continue to focus on contrarian betting by backing teams that have performed poorly ATS through the first half of the season. Our working theory is that as a season progresses, fans and analysts "know" which teams are contenders while writing off current cellar dwellers. Recreational bettors have a similar mindset with their opinions based on ATS record as opposed to straight-up wins and losses.
With this theory in mind, I used our Bet Labs analysis software to develop an NFL betting system with a 57.4 percent ATS win rate and two matches for Week 12.
While constructing this system, I defined the second half of the NFL season as all regular-season games played from Week 10 on. With bye weeks starting in Week 4, beginning the analysis in Week 10 ensures that all teams have played at least eight games and are therefore at or past the halfway point of their seasons.
To create the system, I highlighted all games from Weeks 10 to 17 and determined that teams with an ATS win rate of 25 percent or less have won at a 57.4 percent rate ATS since 2005.
The table below summarizes the results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]Weeks 10-17, Since 2005[/h]
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody><tfoot style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tfoot>
Note: For the purposes of the analysis, I removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two teams with ATS win rates of 25 percent or less played each other, the result of that game is not included in our system since it will produce a 1-1 ATS record.
It's extremely difficult for bettors to continue betting on teams that have consistently lost them money, especially when these teams are also among the league's worst. At some point, bettors write bad teams off in an attempt to cut their losses for the rest of the season. However, as contrarian bettors, we see this as the perfect time to buy on these teams, especially when the betting market views them as "bad."
Remember, oddsmakers build the history of bad teams into the line, so past results are already reflected in current point spreads.
Note: All odds info courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Hotel.
This week's system has produced only two matches for Week 12. One of the most important characteristics of successful sports betting is having the discipline to bet games with a perceived edge only. The goal of this column is to produce profitable results over the course of the entire season and not to simply spit out plays to ensure we have "action." As a result, we'll focus on our two system matches and not force any further plays for Week 12.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) at Indianapolis Colts
Following their ninth loss of the season, Jacksonville returns from a bye week as a two-touchdown underdog against Indianapolis. Normally, getting crushed in front of a nationally televised audience in a prime-time game would hurt the public's perception of Indianapolis, but apparently not when the Colts are playing the Jaguars.
At the time of publication, 73 percent of spread bettors are laying the 14 points with the Colts, making this a clear contrarian play. We'll take the Jags and the points.
New York Jets (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
In a game that was basically unwatchable (unless you're a fan of the art of field goal kicking), Buffalo lost to Miami 22-9 on Thursday night. With the loss, the Bills have dropped to 5-5 on the season and sit in third in the AFC East.
The Jets pulled off a huge upset against the Steelers in Week 10, followed by a chance to rest, continue the transition to Michael Vick and prepare for Buffalo during their bye in Week 11. Interestingly, bettors don't seem to care, as 65 percent of spread bets are currently on the Bills. Based on our analysis above and the current public betting trends, we think the Jets are being undervalued in this matchup and will take them as a 4.5-point underdog.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Last week, we returned to a staple of our contrarian betting strategy, the 80/20 betting system, and took advantage of the value created by one-sided public betting. Despite an ugly result regarding our Philadelphia-Green Bay play, the other two matchups -- St. Louis (plus-9.5) vs. Denver and Tennessee (plus-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh -- covered, putting us at 2-1 against the spread for the week while improving our 2014 season record to 19-13 ATS for a 59.4 percent win rate.
Looking ahead to Week 12, we'll continue to focus on contrarian betting by backing teams that have performed poorly ATS through the first half of the season. Our working theory is that as a season progresses, fans and analysts "know" which teams are contenders while writing off current cellar dwellers. Recreational bettors have a similar mindset with their opinions based on ATS record as opposed to straight-up wins and losses.
With this theory in mind, I used our Bet Labs analysis software to develop an NFL betting system with a 57.4 percent ATS win rate and two matches for Week 12.
While constructing this system, I defined the second half of the NFL season as all regular-season games played from Week 10 on. With bye weeks starting in Week 4, beginning the analysis in Week 10 ensures that all teams have played at least eight games and are therefore at or past the halfway point of their seasons.
To create the system, I highlighted all games from Weeks 10 to 17 and determined that teams with an ATS win rate of 25 percent or less have won at a 57.4 percent rate ATS since 2005.
The table below summarizes the results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]Weeks 10-17, Since 2005[/h]
| Team ATS Win Rate | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 percent and less | 62-46 (57.4 percent) | +12.34 units | +11.4 percent |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records, units won and ROI. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system has won or lost after factoring in the vig. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,234 ($100 x 12.34 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from a sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody><tfoot style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tfoot>
Note: For the purposes of the analysis, I removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two teams with ATS win rates of 25 percent or less played each other, the result of that game is not included in our system since it will produce a 1-1 ATS record.
[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]It's extremely difficult for bettors to continue betting on teams that have consistently lost them money, especially when these teams are also among the league's worst. At some point, bettors write bad teams off in an attempt to cut their losses for the rest of the season. However, as contrarian bettors, we see this as the perfect time to buy on these teams, especially when the betting market views them as "bad."
Remember, oddsmakers build the history of bad teams into the line, so past results are already reflected in current point spreads.
[h=3]Week 12 system matches[/h]Note: All odds info courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Hotel.
This week's system has produced only two matches for Week 12. One of the most important characteristics of successful sports betting is having the discipline to bet games with a perceived edge only. The goal of this column is to produce profitable results over the course of the entire season and not to simply spit out plays to ensure we have "action." As a result, we'll focus on our two system matches and not force any further plays for Week 12.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) at Indianapolis Colts
Following their ninth loss of the season, Jacksonville returns from a bye week as a two-touchdown underdog against Indianapolis. Normally, getting crushed in front of a nationally televised audience in a prime-time game would hurt the public's perception of Indianapolis, but apparently not when the Colts are playing the Jaguars.
At the time of publication, 73 percent of spread bettors are laying the 14 points with the Colts, making this a clear contrarian play. We'll take the Jags and the points.
New York Jets (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
In a game that was basically unwatchable (unless you're a fan of the art of field goal kicking), Buffalo lost to Miami 22-9 on Thursday night. With the loss, the Bills have dropped to 5-5 on the season and sit in third in the AFC East.
The Jets pulled off a huge upset against the Steelers in Week 10, followed by a chance to rest, continue the transition to Michael Vick and prepare for Buffalo during their bye in Week 11. Interestingly, bettors don't seem to care, as 65 percent of spread bets are currently on the Bills. Based on our analysis above and the current public betting trends, we think the Jets are being undervalued in this matchup and will take them as a 4.5-point underdog.
