STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #13 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Thursday's Week #13 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#111 KANSAS ST @ #112 W VIRGINIA
TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
Line: W Virginia -2, Total: 57.5
Kansas State tries to bounce back from a devastating loss at Texas Christian when it visits West Virginia on Thursday evening, but the oddsmakers do not see it happening as the unranked Mountaineers are favored to defeat the No. 11 Wildcats. Kansas State was in the national championship picture before dropping a 41-20 decision to the Horned Frogs on November 8th, but still has an outside shot to win the Big 12 title with wins in its final three games and some help. The Wildcats are tied with No. 6 Baylor - one-half game behind No. 5 TCU - with a showdown looming with the Bears in Waco, Texas, on December 6th to finish the regular season.
West Virginia has dropped two straight, including a 31-30 decision to Texas Christian on November 1st before falling at Texas 33-16 on November 8th. While the Mountaineers are not involved in the Big 12 race, they will be tough to beat on Senior Night. "We still have things to fight for like a good bowl game," junior safety K.J. Dillon said in Monday's press conference. "No one is down, everyone still wants to win for the seniors this Thursday and wants to win and finish out a good season."
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (7-2, 5-1 Big 12): The Wildcats have two of the top receivers in the Big 12 in Tyler Lockett (60 receptions, 14.6 yards per catch, six touchdowns) and Curry Sexton (53, 13.6, four), but might be better off trying to run. QB Jake Waters (63.6 completion rate, 13 touchdowns, four interceptions) has rushed for 406 yards and seven touchdowns, second in both departments to Charles Jones (430, 11), and they'll go against a defense that yields an average of 181.5 rushing yards - eighth in the 10-team Big 12. Waters went 20 of 37 with two scores against the Horned Frogs. He was 10 of 13 for 198 yards last season against the Mountaineers while also running 10 times for 55 yards. The 6'1" Senior ranks second in the conference among QB's with 45.1 rushing yards per game. Kansas State won its first two road games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma by a combined five points.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (6-4, 4-3 Big 12): Quarterback Clint Trickett is putting together a solid season with a 68.3 completion rate and 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions. His favorite target is wide receiver Kevin White, who has 91 catches (second in the nation) for 1,207 yards (third) and eight touchdowns. White began the season with seven straight efforts of at least 100 yards and had a school-record 16 receptions for 132 yards against the Longhorns. "If you watch him on tape, you realize that he is a gifted young guy," Kansas State coach Bill Snyder said. "He can run, catch, and make you miss after he catches the ball. He has all of it." The Mountaineers can also get it done on the ground with Wendell Smallwood (585 yards, two touchdowns), Rushel Shell (560, six) and Dreamius Smith (411, five).
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas State averages 36.2 points - 19th in the country - while West Virginia is 33rd at 34.1 per game.... The Mountaineers, who are 27-11-2 in home night games, are 19-19 against Big 12 teams.... The Wildcats have won three of the four meetings, including a 35-12 victory last season when Lockett caught three touchdown passes - two from Waters.... Lockett is Kansas State's all-time leader with 3,073 receiving yards and ranks 16th in the nation with 97.6 per game after a spectacular 11-catch, 196-yard effort against the Horned Frogs. The 5'11" Senior is 122 yards shy of becoming the first player in school history with two 1,000-yard seasons.
•KEY STATS
--KANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 36.6, OPPONENT 26.3.
--KANSAS ST is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS ST 34.1, OPPONENT 23.6.
--KANSAS ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS ST 33.6, OPPONENT 20.8.
--KANSAS ST is 36-13 OVER (+21.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS ST 32.4, OPPONENT 25.5.
--KANSAS ST is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS ST 32.1, OPPONENT 24.8.
--W VIRGINIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 37.2, OPPONENT 22.5.
--W VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.8, OPPONENT 24.8.
--W VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.8, OPPONENT 24.8.
--W VIRGINIA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 21.8, OPPONENT 13.1.
--W VIRGINIA is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.8 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 21.3, OPPONENT 10.9.
--W VIRGINIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 17.7, OPPONENT 33.0.
--W VIRGINIA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 17.5, OPPONENT 25.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BILL SNYDER is 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of KANSAS ST.
The average score was KANSAS ST 32.8, OPPONENT 27.0.
--BILL SNYDER is 13-0 ATS (+13.0 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SNYDER 34.9, OPPONENT 17.6.
--BILL SNYDER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after being outrushed by 200 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SNYDER 34.9, OPPONENT 13.7.
--BILL SNYDER is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SNYDER 36.1, OPPONENT 16.8.
--BILL SNYDER is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SNYDER 28.6, OPPONENT 17.6.
--DANA HOLGORSEN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a bye week as the coach of W VIRGINIA.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 34.7, OPPONENT 32.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA since 1992.
--KANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS ST since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KSU is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
--KSU 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
--Over is 7-3 in KSU last 10 conference games.
--WVU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
--WVU is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
--Over is 13-6 in WVU last 19 games following a bye week.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 43 times, while the favorite covered the spread 30 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 38 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 34 times. 38 games went over the total, while 25 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 40 times, while the favorite covered first half line 29 times. *No EDGE. 32 games went over first half total, while 30 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS ST) - mistake-free team (<=1.25 TO/G committed) versus a team with <=1.25 TO/G forced, after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(46-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.7%, +24.0 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (45-22 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 31.1, Opponent 26.1 (Average point differential = +5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (79-57).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (133-120).
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#113 N CAROLINA @ #114 DUKE
TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Duke -6, Total: 66.5
After suffering its first home loss of the season, No. 25 Duke will look to protect its home turf when it faces arch-rival North Carolina on Thursday. The Blue Devils scored the first 10 points before coughing up three turnovers in a 17-16 loss to Virginia Tech, but a game against a Tar Heels' defense that has allowed 27 or more points in every contest may be a boon for David Cutcliffe's offense. "We probably did leave some points on the field," Cutcliffe told the media. "Field goals and touchdowns are two really different things. They (Virginia Tech) are good at taking advantage of mistakes you make and they did that. He (Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster) created issues for us that we didn't respond to very well."
With a victory over Pittsburgh last week, the Tar Heels have won three of their last four contests since a four-game losing streak that included a 34-17 defeat to Virginia Tech. Shakeel Rashad recovered a fumble caused by Malik Simmons to seal the win for Larry Fedora's team, which will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak to the Blue Devils. "We had a lot of adversity throughout the game and sometimes it gets the better of us with big plays or whatever," Rashad told the media. "But we fight back and when it really comes time to bow our necks and make a play, I think we're pretty good at doing that."
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (5-5, 3-3 ACC): As if losing to the Blue Devils isn't bad enough, the Tar Heels had the lead late in each of the last two meetings, only to watch Duke put up the final points. Last year, a field goal with two minutes left resulted in Cutcliffe being carried off the field in front of North Carolina fans as the Blue Devils clinched a berth in the ACC title game. "I don't have any doubt our team is going to prepare and be ready to play on Thursday night," Fedora, whose teams needs a win against Duke or North Carolina State to become bowl-eligible, told reporters. "We plan on being in a bowl game. I don't know if it matters who we play, but I'm glad it worked out the way it did."
•ABOUT DUKE (8-2, 4-2 ACC): In his weekly press conference, Cutcliffe spoke about what his team will need to do to succeed given the quick turnaround to a Thursday game. "It's a unique challenge. When you get into this circumstance, history tells you that you've got to do the things that you do best. When you have a fast turnaround, you depend on what you know best, what you do best in every phase, whether its kicking, offense or defense. You better go out and get busy in improving your execution." What the Blue Devils do best is running the ball to the tune of 193.7 yards per game and defense, where they rank 11th in the nation with 18.1 points allowed per game. Duke has nine turnovers all season - still the fewest in the ACC - but six have come in their two losses.
•PREGAME NOTES: The once-chaotic Coastal race is boiled down to this: Duke will return to the title game with wins over North Carolina and Wake Forest, while a loss by the Blue Devils will send Georgia Tech to Charlotte.... North Carolina has allowed 511.6 yards per game, fourth-worst in the nation and some 122 more than the next Atlantic Coast Conference team (Duke).... Despite the back-to-back losses, the Tars Heels hold a 58-38-4 lead in a series that began in 1888.... The last time the Blue Devils won three straight in the series came in 1987-89, but that was followed by a 1-21 stretch.... The Tar Heels have 20 takeaways, including at least one in every game. The Tar Heels got a big one in the waning moments against Pittsburgh, recovering a game-clinching fumble near midfield two plays after taking a 40-35 lead with 55 seconds left.
•KEY STATS
--N CAROLINA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
The average score was N CAROLINA 11.9, OPPONENT 9.4.
--DUKE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DUKE 32.4, OPPONENT 24.3.
--DUKE is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) in home games after playing 2 straight conference games since 1992.
The average score was DUKE 23.2, OPPONENT 33.7.
--DUKE is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
The average score was DUKE 16.3, OPPONENT 14.3.
--DUKE is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was DUKE 11.8, OPPONENT 20.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--LARRY FEDORA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a win by 6 or less points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FEDORA 16.6, OPPONENT 19.8.
--DAVID CUTCLIFFE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CUTCLIFFE 31.9, OPPONENT 33.8.
--DAVID CUTCLIFFE is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CUTCLIFFE 14.9, OPPONENT 25.5.
--DAVID CUTCLIFFE is 23-7 against the 1rst half line (+15.3 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CUTCLIFFE 15.2, OPPONENT 11.4.
--DAVID CUTCLIFFE is 52-25 against the 1rst half line (+24.5 Units) in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CUTCLIFFE 12.7, OPPONENT 13.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 12-10 against the spread versus N CAROLINA since 1992.
--N CAROLINA is 19-3 straight up against DUKE since 1992.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--DUKE is 16-5 versus the first half line when playing against N CAROLINA since 1992.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Duke.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UNC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--UNC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
--Under is 4-0 in UNC last 4 Thursday games.
--DUKE is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--DUKE is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
--Under is 8-1 in DUKE last 9 conference games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 21 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 54 times, while the underdog won straight up 11 times. 12 games went over the total, while 11 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 38 times, while the underdog covered first half line 24 times. *No EDGE. 15 games went under first half total, while 8 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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