STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY NOVEMBER, 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #12 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Monday's Week #12 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#277 BALTIMORE @ #278 NEW ORLEANS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Saint -3, Total: 50
The New Orleans Saints aren't kidding themselves about their current situation. Sure, they're right at the top of the NFC South and involved in a jumbled race for what almost assuredly will be the division's lone playoff berth. But that 4-6 record? That's a different story. "We can't escape the reality of where we are right now," quarterback Drew Brees said. "You are what your record says you are. We're a 4-6 team right now. None of us feel that because we're still in contention that that's good enough. We still have a lot of work to do." New Orleans hasn't lost three straight home games since a six-game slide in 2005, but that would change if they can't bounce back against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.
The Ravens are involved in a tight division race of their own, as each team in the NFC North has at least six victories. They ended a two-game skid with a 21-7 win over Tennessee on November 9th and have gotten a nice late-season rest due to last week's bye. "Players took some time off and kind of emotionally and physically recharged a little bit," coach John Harbaugh said. "You don't realize how exhausted you are until you get a chance to take a deep breath and relax." Harbaugh emphasized, though, that Baltimore has to quickly get back into game mode to be prepared for a hungry New Orleans team. "We're going to have a tough environment," Harbaugh said. "They're coming off two losses, they're a very proud team, very well coached, very talented. Great quarterback, aggressive defense.
•ABOUT THE RAVENS (6-4 SU, 6-4-0 ATS): After a blazing start Joe Flacco has struggled recently, throwing five touchdown passes and five interceptions over the past four games. Running back Justin Forsett continues to have a breakout season with 721 yards rushing, and had another solid effort against the Titans, rushing for 112 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He's averaging 5.4 yards per rush, tops among all running backs. Forsett could be in for another big day against the Saints, who are allowing 4.8 per carry and 146.3 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Teams from the AFC North are 8-1-1 against their counterparts from the NFC South this season.
•ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-6 SU, 4-6-0 ATS): The Saints lost 27-24 in overtime to San Francisco on November 9th before last week’s 27-10 defeat to Cincinnati, a contest during which they appeared "flat," according to coach Sean Payton. New Orleans has lost by three points or fewer four times but certainly doesn't care about moral victories. Each team in the division is below .500, with Atlanta owning an identical 4-6 record but having won the teams' first meeting. If they can turn around their season, the Saints could wind up with a home playoff game despite the current struggles. "There have been a number of tough losses, close losses, and what that means is at this point in the season, that margin for error becomes that much more slight," Payton said.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baltimore has won four of five all-time meetings, most recently overcoming three touchdown passes from Brees in a 30-24 victory in 2010.... Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks (53, receptions, 530 yards) was lost for the season after undergoing thumb surgery during the week. The sure-handed Cooks' loss will be felt by Brees, who leads the league completing 69.55 percent of his passes.... Baltimore is 20th in passing defense while New Orleans ranks 22nd.... LB Elvis Dumervil has 10.5 sacks and is on pace to break the Ravens' season record of 15.... Saints S Rafael Bush is out with a broken leg.
•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 19.0, OPPONENT 13.4.
--BALTIMORE is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 19.3, OPPONENT 14.9.
--BALTIMORE is 9-0 against the 1rst half line (+9.0 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 11.4, OPPONENT 6.4.
--BALTIMORE is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 17.4, OPPONENT 6.7.
--BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 6.0, OPPONENT 7.1.
--BALTIMORE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 7.3, OPPONENT 5.6.
--NEW ORLEANS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 17.2, OPPONENT 26.2.
--NEW ORLEANS is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.7, OPPONENT 19.0.
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 18.1, OPPONENT 13.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 21.1, OPPONENT 24.1.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 21-7 against the 1rst half line (+13.3 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 13.7, OPPONENT 8.3.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.7 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.9, OPPONENT 6.7.
--SEAN PAYTON is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 24.6, OPPONENT 24.4.
--SEAN PAYTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 32.0, OPPONENT 23.6.
--SEAN PAYTON is 10-23 against the 1rst half line (-15.3 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 11.2, OPPONENT 13.3.
--SEAN PAYTON is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 9.9, OPPONENT 15.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 4-1 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--BAL is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
--Under is 5-2 in BAL last 7 Monday games.
--NO is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--NO is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week #12.
--Over is 5-2 in NO last 7 games overall.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 33 times, while the underdog covered the spread 31 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 47 times, while the underdog won straight up 22 times. 20 games went under the total, while 13 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 71 times, while the underdog covered first half line 66 times. *No EDGE. 29 games went under first half total, while 13 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
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#281 NY JETS vs. #282 BUFFALO
TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Bills -2, Total: 41.5
With historic levels of snow blanketing Western New York, the Buffalo Bills were forced to switch the date and venue for Sunday's scheduled home game against the New York Jets. The National Football League announced Thursday morning that the matchup between the AFC East rivals will be moved to Detroit on Monday night after nearly six feet of snow pounded Buffalo - with another two-plus feet expected before the weekend. It will be the second trip to Detroit this season for the Bills, who beat the Lions 17-14 on October 5th.
The Jets are searching for their first road victory and went into the bye week with some positive momentum after snapping an eight-game skid with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on November 9th. Both Buffalo and New York have made quarterback changes this season, and Michael Vick’s turnover-free performance against the Steelers gave the Jets something around which to build. “I don't want to let my teammates down, I don't want to let myself down,” Vick told ESPN New York of the opportunity to start again. “I set high expectations for myself and I'm just trying to fulfill that and have fun doing it as the same time."
•ABOUT THE JETS (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS): Vick got a chance in relief against Buffalo on October 26th and went 18-for-36 with an interception and a pair of lost fumbles in a 43-23 setback. The former No. 1 overall pick was better in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs the following week before breaking out with a pair of touchdown passes as New York ended its eight-game slide against Pittsburgh. “Everything that goes along with this position is difficult and I think I just like the challenge,” Vick said. “I look forward to each and every day I get up, and one thing I'll never do is never take it for granted again."
•ABOUT THE BILLS (5-5 SU, 4-6-0 ATS): Buffalo had to estimate its injury report on Wednesday due to practice being canceled, and quarterback Kyle Orton was estimated to be a limited participant with a toe injury. The rest of the Bills were busy taking to social media with their snow experiences, hoping to ease the sting of back-to-back losses in which the team managed a total of 22 points. Orton, who is not expected to miss the game, is completing under 60 percent of his passes in the last two games and has just one scoring pass in that span after tossing four touchdowns in the win over the Jets on October 26th.
•PREGAME NOTES: Detroit's Ford Field was also used as an emergency venue in 2010 when the roof of the Metrodome in Minneapolis collapsed due to snow, forcing the Vikings-Giants game to be moved there.... Jets CB Jaiquawn Jarrett (calf), who grabbed two INTs and recorded a sack against Pittsburgh, was a limited participant at practice.... Buffalo RB Fred Jackson (groin) has missed two of the last three games but is expected to play against New York.... Buffalo has won three of the past four meetings with New York, and Orton tossed four touchdowns - including a 61-yarder to Sammy Watkins in its Week #8 road victory.
•KEY STATS
--NY JETS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 20.9, OPPONENT 20.4.
--NY JETS are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 21.3, OPPONENT 21.0.
--NY JETS are 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 11.5, OPPONENT 13.0.
--NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 12.1, OPPONENT 17.4.
--BUFFALO is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BUFFALO 25.6, OPPONENT 19.1.
--BUFFALO is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BUFFALO 14.3, OPPONENT 9.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--REX RYAN is 17-3 OVER (+13.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 22.3, OPPONENT 27.4.
--REX RYAN is 28-13 OVER (+13.7 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 21.7, OPPONENT 22.9.
--REX RYAN is 4-14 against the 1rst half line (-11.4 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 8.7, OPPONENT 10.9.
--REX RYAN is 30-14 OVER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 9.3, OPPONENT 13.2.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY JETS is 25-20 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992.
--NY JETS is 23-22 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992.
--26 of 45 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 23-22 versus the first half line when playing against NY JETS since 1992.
--24 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NYJ are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the AFC.
--NYJ are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
--Under is 13-4 in NYJ last 17 games in Week #12.
--BUF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #12.
--BUF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
--Under is 6-1 in BUF last 7 games in November.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 38 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 55 times, while the underdog won straight up 27 times. 84 games went under the total, while 45 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 70 times, while the underdog covered first half line 70 times. *No EDGE. 117 games went under first half total, while 83 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(88-47 since 1983.) (65.2%, +36.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
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