[h=1]How Vegas experts view KC-OAK[/h][h=3]Line analysis, ATS picks and prop bet advice for Thursday night's game[/h]
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider
After the Denver Broncos' loss to the St. Louis Rams last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are now tied for first in the AFC West, with both teams 7-3 entering Week 12. Since the Chiefs opened the season with back-to-back losses to the Titans and Broncos, they have been on an absolute roll, winning seven of their last eight games SU and ATS.
The Chiefs' rushing attack has been their bread and butter this season, where they are third in yards per rush (4.8) and fourth in rushing yards per game (141.2). Through 10 games, the Chiefs are still without a touchdown from their wide receivers. With their 7-3 record, it is their defense that seems to be carrying a lot of the load. Kansas City is in the top five on defense in yards per play, passing yards per game and yards per attempt -- a huge reason for their success.
What can be said about the Oakland Raiders? They've lost 16 games in a row, have been listed as an underdog in 19 straight games and they've lost eight straight games as a home underdogs. Nothing has been very positive about the Raiders' offense this season, as they are ranked 25th or worse in almost every category.
Over the past three seasons, Oakland is 3-12 against the AFC West, losing their last seven games against division opponents dating back to Week 5 of last season.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Chiefs at a clip of 84 percent, at the line of Kansas City minus-7.5.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton Hotel, an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys and some prop bets:
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Total: Opened 43; Now 42.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says: After the Chiefs had a hard-fought win over the visiting Seahawks, we posted Kansas City as a minus-6.5 road favorite over Oakland. The market moved the number up to minus-7 on Monday morning and has held steady. Trying to determine which way the line will move on any game is very difficult. Our prediction is the public money will win over and the line will move to the high side of minus-7 and close minus-7.5 or minus-8. It's not a great spot for the Chiefs after that emotional game, but we are talking about the Raiders. Capt O states that Oakland lacks support at the betting windows.
ATS Pick: Raiders (+7.5; buying ½ point)
ATS Pick: Under (42.5)
ATS Pick: Raiders (+7)
John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Hopefully Derek Carr enjoyed that Week 1 game against the Jets, because since then, the Raiders have faced defenses ranked in the top half of Total QBR allowed in eight of nine games. The only team in that stretch that's not currently a top-half QBR defense? The Seahawks, whom the Raiders faced in Seattle in Week 9. The Chiefs' defense is good, but Carr has faced a Chiefs defense every week: The Chiefs are ranked 10th in QBR allowed, and Oakland's nine opponents average a 10.4 rank. Over that same nine-game stretch, Carr's averaged 213.8 yards per game, highlighted by overs at the Seahawks and Browns and against the Chargers and Texans.
The major strength that separates the Chiefs from the rest of Oakland's opponents is the pass rush. The Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 7.9 percent of dropbacks this season, third best in the league. But for all their faults this year, the Raiders have protected the quarterback fairly well. Only Denver's offense has a lower sack percentage than Oakland (2.9 percent of dropbacks), and Derek Carr has been sacked only twice in five home games this season. If the Raiders can withstand the rush Thursday in Oakland, Carr can reach 194 yards, especially considering that Michael Vick and Kyle Orton both did against the Chiefs in two of the last three weeks.
The play: Over
Parolin says: For as successful as he has been this season, Jamaal Charles has rushed for 89 yards only four times and twice from Weeks 1-9. So how does Charles have 100 yards from scrimmage in five of his last seven games? What makes him such an appealing weapon (real life and fantasy) is what makes this a scary bet -- he's almost too versatile. He's posted at least 100 yards in five of his last seven games against the Raiders, but rushed for 89 yards once in nine games against Oakland. Charles at 100 yards from scrimmage is an easier over to take than 88.5 rushing yards.
Does the Raiders' defense set up to support one way or the other? They've allowed 1,298 rushing yards (seventh most), but only 3.8 yards per rush this season, eighth best in the league. Oakland's high total is inflated by having faced 12 more rushes than any other team this season and almost 70 more than the league average total, not surprising for an 0-10 team that's faced exactly one team currently below .500 this season. Are Alex Smith and the Chiefs wide receivers, still the only receiver group in the league to not catch a single touchdown pass, going to manage a big enough lead for Charles to salt away the clock and hit the over? It's likely Charles will be involved in getting that lead, but through the air (like last year). In Week 15 last year, Charles had 215 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns against Oakland -- a performance that included only eight rushes for 20 yards. They haven't improved much either, still allowing 7.0 yards per target to running backs this season, seventh most in the league. And none of those backs have been Charles, who will make an impact Thursday. It just may not be the traditional method for a running back.
The play: Under
By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider
After the Denver Broncos' loss to the St. Louis Rams last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are now tied for first in the AFC West, with both teams 7-3 entering Week 12. Since the Chiefs opened the season with back-to-back losses to the Titans and Broncos, they have been on an absolute roll, winning seven of their last eight games SU and ATS.
The Chiefs' rushing attack has been their bread and butter this season, where they are third in yards per rush (4.8) and fourth in rushing yards per game (141.2). Through 10 games, the Chiefs are still without a touchdown from their wide receivers. With their 7-3 record, it is their defense that seems to be carrying a lot of the load. Kansas City is in the top five on defense in yards per play, passing yards per game and yards per attempt -- a huge reason for their success.
What can be said about the Oakland Raiders? They've lost 16 games in a row, have been listed as an underdog in 19 straight games and they've lost eight straight games as a home underdogs. Nothing has been very positive about the Raiders' offense this season, as they are ranked 25th or worse in almost every category.
Over the past three seasons, Oakland is 3-12 against the AFC West, losing their last seven games against division opponents dating back to Week 5 of last season.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Chiefs at a clip of 84 percent, at the line of Kansas City minus-7.5.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton Hotel, an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys and some prop bets:
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<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders[/h]Spread: Opened KC -6.5; Now KC -7Total: Opened 43; Now 42.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says: After the Chiefs had a hard-fought win over the visiting Seahawks, we posted Kansas City as a minus-6.5 road favorite over Oakland. The market moved the number up to minus-7 on Monday morning and has held steady. Trying to determine which way the line will move on any game is very difficult. Our prediction is the public money will win over and the line will move to the high side of minus-7 and close minus-7.5 or minus-8. It's not a great spot for the Chiefs after that emotional game, but we are talking about the Raiders. Capt O states that Oakland lacks support at the betting windows.
[h=3]ATS Picks:[/h]Maddux Sports says: Kansas City has been undervalued by the betting markets this year as the Chiefs are 8-2 ATS but the line may have caught up to them this week. My numbers favor the Chiefs by seven points in this game and there are a number of strong situations that favor the Raiders in this contest. The Raiders are winless and a terrible team, but much like the Titans on Monday night, this is their one chance to shine in a standalone game. This isn't a case where Oakland has quit; the team is still putting in the effort. It's always scary betting on the team that figures to have more turnovers (Alex Smith has one of the best interception rates) and Andy Reid has been a stud on the road over his career, but that will only reduce the size of my wager today.ATS Pick: Raiders (+7.5; buying ½ point)
Erin Rynning says: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's done an excellent job once again, while they've won seven of their last eight games. The market was really against this Kansas City team in September as they've offered tremendous value in covering eight of their last nine games as well. The Chiefs have accomplished all this winning with a conservative style on offense. Taking what the defense gives them, and rarely throwing the ball downfield. This has also translated with them trending under the total in five of their last six as last week's 44 points just barely got the game over the total. Meanwhile, the Raiders have featured a better brand of football with Tony Sparano taking the controls. Note: Sparano prefers the run game and a conservative style as well, as they attempt to stay in the football game with an opportunity to win late. Look for conservative game plans from both coaches as the game goes under the total.ATS Pick: Under (42.5)
Dave Tuley says: Despite its 0-10 record, Oakland has been competitive at 5-5 ATS. Their best games have come against better competition -- covering against New England, twice San Diego and also at Seattle -- and except for the blowout loss against Denver two weeks ago, they've usually stayed close even when they don't cover in the end. The one concern is that they've actually fared better away from home (4-1 ATS on the road, 1-4 ATS at home), but hopefully a Thursday prime-time game will bring out Raider Nation.ATS Pick: Raiders (+7)
Wunderdog says: Pass
[h=3]Proposition Bets[/h]Derek Carr 193.5 passing yards (O/U -110)John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Hopefully Derek Carr enjoyed that Week 1 game against the Jets, because since then, the Raiders have faced defenses ranked in the top half of Total QBR allowed in eight of nine games. The only team in that stretch that's not currently a top-half QBR defense? The Seahawks, whom the Raiders faced in Seattle in Week 9. The Chiefs' defense is good, but Carr has faced a Chiefs defense every week: The Chiefs are ranked 10th in QBR allowed, and Oakland's nine opponents average a 10.4 rank. Over that same nine-game stretch, Carr's averaged 213.8 yards per game, highlighted by overs at the Seahawks and Browns and against the Chargers and Texans.
The major strength that separates the Chiefs from the rest of Oakland's opponents is the pass rush. The Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 7.9 percent of dropbacks this season, third best in the league. But for all their faults this year, the Raiders have protected the quarterback fairly well. Only Denver's offense has a lower sack percentage than Oakland (2.9 percent of dropbacks), and Derek Carr has been sacked only twice in five home games this season. If the Raiders can withstand the rush Thursday in Oakland, Carr can reach 194 yards, especially considering that Michael Vick and Kyle Orton both did against the Chiefs in two of the last three weeks.
The play: Over
Jamaal Charles 88.5 rushing yards (O/U -110)Parolin says: For as successful as he has been this season, Jamaal Charles has rushed for 89 yards only four times and twice from Weeks 1-9. So how does Charles have 100 yards from scrimmage in five of his last seven games? What makes him such an appealing weapon (real life and fantasy) is what makes this a scary bet -- he's almost too versatile. He's posted at least 100 yards in five of his last seven games against the Raiders, but rushed for 89 yards once in nine games against Oakland. Charles at 100 yards from scrimmage is an easier over to take than 88.5 rushing yards.
Does the Raiders' defense set up to support one way or the other? They've allowed 1,298 rushing yards (seventh most), but only 3.8 yards per rush this season, eighth best in the league. Oakland's high total is inflated by having faced 12 more rushes than any other team this season and almost 70 more than the league average total, not surprising for an 0-10 team that's faced exactly one team currently below .500 this season. Are Alex Smith and the Chiefs wide receivers, still the only receiver group in the league to not catch a single touchdown pass, going to manage a big enough lead for Charles to salt away the clock and hit the over? It's likely Charles will be involved in getting that lead, but through the air (like last year). In Week 15 last year, Charles had 215 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns against Oakland -- a performance that included only eight rushes for 20 yards. They haven't improved much either, still allowing 7.0 yards per target to running backs this season, seventh most in the league. And none of those backs have been Charles, who will make an impact Thursday. It just may not be the traditional method for a running back.
The play: Under
