[h=1]Early Week 13 NFL line moves[/h][h=3]Where early money is going for NFL Week 13, plus biggest Week 12 takeaways[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
For the second straight Sunday, underdogs ruled in the NFL.
Unlike Week 11, when underdogs went 9-4 ATS and pulled six outright upsets, this weekend the 'dogs are 8-5 ATS entering the Monday doubleheader but with only three outright upsets (and the biggest one was Thursday night, when Oakland beat Kansas City 24-20 as a 7-point home 'dog and plus-300 on the money line). The only other minor upsets on Sunday were Cleveland's crazy 26-24 win at Atlanta as a 3-point underdog and Cincinnati's 22-13 victory at Houston as a 3-point road 'dog.
The other five underdog ATS wins were games in which the favorite won but didn't cover. Those are usually the best results for the sportsbooks as they don't pay out the majority of point-spread wagers on the favorite and also don't pay out the plus money on the underdogs on the money line. But cutting into the books' profits a little was the fact the that the big public favorites such as the Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Chargers and Broncos all cashed for teaser plays even though just the Patriots and Seahawks covered among that group.
But as we do in this "Opening Line Report" column each week, we quickly turn our attention to how the results affect next week's lines. And we have a lot of marquee matchups in Week 13.
On Thanksgiving Day, after Detroit tries to get back on the winning track against Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas battle for the NFC East lead and Seattle visits San Francisco with the loser facing an even tougher uphill battle to make the playoffs.
On Sunday, the winner of the New England at Green Bay game probably will be the Super Bowl favorite moving forward; the Denver-Kansas City game is for the lead in the AFC West; and the San Diego-Baltimore, New Orleans-Pittsburgh, Arizona-Atlanta (and possibly Cleveland-Buffalo) games have playoff implications for both teams. So let's take our weekly tour around the league's opening lines and see how the market adjusted in early wagering Sunday afternoon and evening.
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[h=4]Week 13 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Bears
Lions -6 (-6.5)
Eagles
Cowboys -3 (-3 EV)
Seahawks
49ers Pick 'em (-1)
Redskins
Colts -9
Titans
Texans -7
Browns
Bills -2
Chargers
Ravens -4.5
Giants -2
Jaguars
Bengals -3.5
Buccaneers
Raiders
Rams -7
Saints
Steelers -3
Panthers
Vikings -2.5
Cardinals -1 (-1.5)
Falcons
Patriots
Packers -3.5
Broncos -2.5 (-1.5)
Chiefs
Dolphins -4.5 (-4)
Jets
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Giants' and Cowboys' next games were taken off the board).
[h=3]Early Week 13 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 13 that were put up on Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. Although the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Bears at Lions (-6): The Westgate advance line last week was Detroit minus-6.5, but after Chicago won and Detroit lost Sunday, the Westgate reopened the line at 6. However, William Hill went with 6.5 and Wynn went with minus-7 (even money) and offshores were a mix of 6.5/7, so early bets pushed it to 6.5 at the Westgate. By late Sunday, most books were at 6.5, although Wynn was holding the line at 7, so, although 6.5 looks like the right number, it's probably more likely we'll see more 7s than a drop back to 6.
Thursday: Eagles at Cowboys (-3): The advance line was Dallas minus-3, and the Westgate reopened there after the Eagles routed the Titans. Most books kept this off the board with the Cowboys playing Sunday night, but CG Technology had it at Dallas minus-2 and that got bet to 2.5. Early money at the Westgate moved the juice on minus-3 to even, and, with the Cowboys not covering and nearly losing to the Giants, we could see this dip to 2.5.
Thursday: Seahawks at 49ers (pick 'em): The advance line was San Fran minus-1.5, but after the 49ers didn't cover against Washington while Seattle covered in beating Arizona 19-3, this line reopened pick 'em at the Westgate. However, William Hill and Wynn both went with 1, CG Technology and offshore giant Olympic (aka TheGreek.com) went with 1.5 and CRIS opened minus-2. The line was a consensus San Francisco minus-1 by the end of Sunday night.
Redskins at Colts (-9): The Westgate had this at 9.5 last week and reposted at 9 on Sunday afternoon, but William Hill and the Wynn opened at 9.5 and offshores were a mix of 9.5/10, so I'd expect the Vegas books to move in that direction, too.
Titans at Texans (-7): The advance line was Houston minus-6.5 and, after both lost Sunday, the Westgate reopened at 7. Offshores were a mix of 6.5/7, and even though the Westgate didn't move the line early Sunday night, it was bet down to 6.5 later. Pinnacle was bet down from 6.5 to 6, so the 7s probably won't last or will come with heavier juice attached.
Browns at Bills (-2): This was bet from Buffalo minus-1.5 to minus-3 early last week, but, after Cleveland beat Atlanta, the Westgate reopened at Buffalo minus-2. We'll see how it gets affected by the Bills' game Monday against the Jets. Also keep an eye on whether this game stays in Buffalo as scheduled.
Chargers at Ravens (-4.5): The Westgate had Baltimore minus-3.5 last week, but, after San Diego struggled to beat the Rams, it was raised to 4.5. The Ravens' Monday night game at New Orleans also could affect this line.
Giants (-2) at Jaguars: This was New York minus-3 last week, so it was a little surprising that it dropped to 2 after Jacksonville lost 23-3 at Indianapolis (although the Jaguars had a chance to cover late as a 13.5-point underdog). But after the G-Men covered and nearly beat Dallas on Sunday night, I expect this to end up back at a full field goal.
Bengals (-3.5) at Buccaneers: Cincinnati was a 3.5-point road favorite on the advance line last week, and that's where the Westgate reopened it. The Wynn and CRIS both opened at 4, and that looks likely to be where the other books are headed.
Raiders at Rams (-7): This was 7 last week and, after the Raiders beat the Chiefs on Thursday, still reopened at 7 as the Rams covered their second straight game and nearly beat the Chargers. CG Technology opened at 6.5, and Pinnacle is now shading its line toward Oakland, so we could see this dip under a full TD.
Saints at Steelers (-3): This was Pittsburgh minus-3 last week, and, with the Steelers on their bye week and the Saints playing Monday night, that's where the Westgate reposted it and where it sits early Monday morning.
Panthers at Vikings (-2.5): Minnesota was minus-2.5 at the Westgate last week, but, even after covering as a 7.5-point home underdog in a 27-24 loss to Green Bay, the Vikings were reopened at the same line. However, the Wynn went with minus-3 (even) and offshores had a mix of 2.5/3, so this should waver between the two numbers all week.
Cardinals (-1) at Falcons: Westgate's advance line was pick 'em, but, after both teams lost Sunday, the Westgate made Arizona a 1-point favorite. Pinnacle actually went with Atlanta minus-1, but, after several other offshore books went with pick 'em and William Hill and the Westgate also opened Arizona minus-1, CRIS went with 1.5, and that's where the early action moved the Westgate. Still, it's not a big move, and this probably will stay with the Cardinals favored by under a field goal.
Patriots at Packers (-3.5): This was Green Bay minus-2.5 last week at the Westgate, so, with the Patriots routing the Lions and the Packers failing to cover against the Vikings, it's a little surprising the line was reopened at minus-3.5. CG Technology had it as high as 4 earlier in the day Sunday before it was lowered to 3.5. Offshores had a mix of 3/3.5, so it looks as if this will settle at 3 between these two very public teams.
Broncos (-2.5) at Chiefs: Despite the Chiefs losing to the Raiders on Thursday, this line was reopened at the same price as the advance line. However, CRIS opened Kansas City minus-1 and Wynn and William Hill opened at Denver minus-1 and minus-1.5, respectively, and everyone met in the middle by late Sunday night, with the Westgate moving a full point down to 1.5. It looks most likely that the Broncos will remain short road favorites.
Monday: Dolphins (-4.5) at Jets: The advance line was Miami minus-3.5, and, after the Dolphins' near-upset of the Broncos, it was to 4.5 at the Westgate but bet down to 4 as William Hill opened at 4. Most books have it off the board with the Jets playing this Monday night, too.
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</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 12[/h]Chiefs' streak snapped, but still top NFL ATS Standings
Entering the Week 12 Thursday game, Kansas City had covered five straight and had a league-best 8-1-1 ATS record. However, the loss to previously winless Oakland (which, was a respectable 5-5 ATS despite being 0-10 straight up) dropped the Chiefs to 8-2-1 ATS. However, with Arizona also losing and falling to 8-3 ATS along with Indianapolis, K.C. still tops the NFL ATS standings. Philadelphia is next at 7-3-1 ATS, followed by New England (which now owns the longest ATS win streak at four in a row) and Miami at 7-4 ATS. The New York Jets are still the worst ATS team at 2-7-1, but they can move ahead of Tennessee and Jacksonville with a cover Monday night.
Include coaches in your handicapping
There's not enough room to go over all the coaching mistakes we see every week when it comes to timeout/clock management, fourth-down decisions, replay challenges, 2-point conversions, etc. (we'll leave that to the Twitterverse), but the Cleveland-Atlanta endgame was notably bad. The Falcons' Mike Smith had the game won and somehow let the Browns get the ball back with not only 44 seconds left but all three of their timeouts (previously, the Browns' Mike Pettine helped Atlanta get back in the game with some miscues of his own -- as well as Brian Hoyer's ill-advised INTs). There's a reason handicappers love backing coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jeff Fisher; you know they're going to put their team (and you) in the best position to win/cover.
Top over teams/QBs cool off a little
The Packers/Rodgers had their six-game over streak snapped but are still tops in the league at 9-2 with the over. The Patriots/Tom Brady had their seven-game over streak snapped but are still 8-3 with the over along with the Colts/Andrew Luck, Eagles/system QB and Broncos/Peyton Manning. The Saints/Brees can get to 8-3 if they go over on Monday night. The Lions improved to 9-2 with the under by snapping the Pats' over streak, and the Bills get to 9-2 if they stay under in the other Monday night game.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
For the second straight Sunday, underdogs ruled in the NFL.
Unlike Week 11, when underdogs went 9-4 ATS and pulled six outright upsets, this weekend the 'dogs are 8-5 ATS entering the Monday doubleheader but with only three outright upsets (and the biggest one was Thursday night, when Oakland beat Kansas City 24-20 as a 7-point home 'dog and plus-300 on the money line). The only other minor upsets on Sunday were Cleveland's crazy 26-24 win at Atlanta as a 3-point underdog and Cincinnati's 22-13 victory at Houston as a 3-point road 'dog.
The other five underdog ATS wins were games in which the favorite won but didn't cover. Those are usually the best results for the sportsbooks as they don't pay out the majority of point-spread wagers on the favorite and also don't pay out the plus money on the underdogs on the money line. But cutting into the books' profits a little was the fact the that the big public favorites such as the Patriots, Packers, Seahawks, Chargers and Broncos all cashed for teaser plays even though just the Patriots and Seahawks covered among that group.
But as we do in this "Opening Line Report" column each week, we quickly turn our attention to how the results affect next week's lines. And we have a lot of marquee matchups in Week 13.
On Thanksgiving Day, after Detroit tries to get back on the winning track against Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas battle for the NFC East lead and Seattle visits San Francisco with the loser facing an even tougher uphill battle to make the playoffs.
On Sunday, the winner of the New England at Green Bay game probably will be the Super Bowl favorite moving forward; the Denver-Kansas City game is for the lead in the AFC West; and the San Diego-Baltimore, New Orleans-Pittsburgh, Arizona-Atlanta (and possibly Cleveland-Buffalo) games have playoff implications for both teams. So let's take our weekly tour around the league's opening lines and see how the market adjusted in early wagering Sunday afternoon and evening.
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday (note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, but most books hold off on those). This is the section where we note which games are off the board because of injuries, but this week there were lines posted for all 16 games, even the Browns-Bills game in Buffalo even though it's not 100 percent certain the stadium will be ready in time.[h=4]Week 13 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Bears
Lions -6 (-6.5)
Eagles
Cowboys -3 (-3 EV)
Seahawks
49ers Pick 'em (-1)
Redskins
Colts -9
Titans
Texans -7
Browns
Bills -2
Chargers
Ravens -4.5
Giants -2
Jaguars
Bengals -3.5
Buccaneers
Raiders
Rams -7
Saints
Steelers -3
Panthers
Vikings -2.5
Cardinals -1 (-1.5)
Falcons
Patriots
Packers -3.5
Broncos -2.5 (-1.5)
Chiefs
Dolphins -4.5 (-4)
Jets
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Giants' and Cowboys' next games were taken off the board).
[h=3]Early Week 13 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 13 that were put up on Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. Although the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Bears at Lions (-6): The Westgate advance line last week was Detroit minus-6.5, but after Chicago won and Detroit lost Sunday, the Westgate reopened the line at 6. However, William Hill went with 6.5 and Wynn went with minus-7 (even money) and offshores were a mix of 6.5/7, so early bets pushed it to 6.5 at the Westgate. By late Sunday, most books were at 6.5, although Wynn was holding the line at 7, so, although 6.5 looks like the right number, it's probably more likely we'll see more 7s than a drop back to 6.
Thursday: Eagles at Cowboys (-3): The advance line was Dallas minus-3, and the Westgate reopened there after the Eagles routed the Titans. Most books kept this off the board with the Cowboys playing Sunday night, but CG Technology had it at Dallas minus-2 and that got bet to 2.5. Early money at the Westgate moved the juice on minus-3 to even, and, with the Cowboys not covering and nearly losing to the Giants, we could see this dip to 2.5.
Thursday: Seahawks at 49ers (pick 'em): The advance line was San Fran minus-1.5, but after the 49ers didn't cover against Washington while Seattle covered in beating Arizona 19-3, this line reopened pick 'em at the Westgate. However, William Hill and Wynn both went with 1, CG Technology and offshore giant Olympic (aka TheGreek.com) went with 1.5 and CRIS opened minus-2. The line was a consensus San Francisco minus-1 by the end of Sunday night.
Redskins at Colts (-9): The Westgate had this at 9.5 last week and reposted at 9 on Sunday afternoon, but William Hill and the Wynn opened at 9.5 and offshores were a mix of 9.5/10, so I'd expect the Vegas books to move in that direction, too.
Titans at Texans (-7): The advance line was Houston minus-6.5 and, after both lost Sunday, the Westgate reopened at 7. Offshores were a mix of 6.5/7, and even though the Westgate didn't move the line early Sunday night, it was bet down to 6.5 later. Pinnacle was bet down from 6.5 to 6, so the 7s probably won't last or will come with heavier juice attached.
Browns at Bills (-2): This was bet from Buffalo minus-1.5 to minus-3 early last week, but, after Cleveland beat Atlanta, the Westgate reopened at Buffalo minus-2. We'll see how it gets affected by the Bills' game Monday against the Jets. Also keep an eye on whether this game stays in Buffalo as scheduled.
Chargers at Ravens (-4.5): The Westgate had Baltimore minus-3.5 last week, but, after San Diego struggled to beat the Rams, it was raised to 4.5. The Ravens' Monday night game at New Orleans also could affect this line.
Giants (-2) at Jaguars: This was New York minus-3 last week, so it was a little surprising that it dropped to 2 after Jacksonville lost 23-3 at Indianapolis (although the Jaguars had a chance to cover late as a 13.5-point underdog). But after the G-Men covered and nearly beat Dallas on Sunday night, I expect this to end up back at a full field goal.
Bengals (-3.5) at Buccaneers: Cincinnati was a 3.5-point road favorite on the advance line last week, and that's where the Westgate reopened it. The Wynn and CRIS both opened at 4, and that looks likely to be where the other books are headed.
Raiders at Rams (-7): This was 7 last week and, after the Raiders beat the Chiefs on Thursday, still reopened at 7 as the Rams covered their second straight game and nearly beat the Chargers. CG Technology opened at 6.5, and Pinnacle is now shading its line toward Oakland, so we could see this dip under a full TD.
Saints at Steelers (-3): This was Pittsburgh minus-3 last week, and, with the Steelers on their bye week and the Saints playing Monday night, that's where the Westgate reposted it and where it sits early Monday morning.
Panthers at Vikings (-2.5): Minnesota was minus-2.5 at the Westgate last week, but, even after covering as a 7.5-point home underdog in a 27-24 loss to Green Bay, the Vikings were reopened at the same line. However, the Wynn went with minus-3 (even) and offshores had a mix of 2.5/3, so this should waver between the two numbers all week.
Cardinals (-1) at Falcons: Westgate's advance line was pick 'em, but, after both teams lost Sunday, the Westgate made Arizona a 1-point favorite. Pinnacle actually went with Atlanta minus-1, but, after several other offshore books went with pick 'em and William Hill and the Westgate also opened Arizona minus-1, CRIS went with 1.5, and that's where the early action moved the Westgate. Still, it's not a big move, and this probably will stay with the Cardinals favored by under a field goal.
Patriots at Packers (-3.5): This was Green Bay minus-2.5 last week at the Westgate, so, with the Patriots routing the Lions and the Packers failing to cover against the Vikings, it's a little surprising the line was reopened at minus-3.5. CG Technology had it as high as 4 earlier in the day Sunday before it was lowered to 3.5. Offshores had a mix of 3/3.5, so it looks as if this will settle at 3 between these two very public teams.
Broncos (-2.5) at Chiefs: Despite the Chiefs losing to the Raiders on Thursday, this line was reopened at the same price as the advance line. However, CRIS opened Kansas City minus-1 and Wynn and William Hill opened at Denver minus-1 and minus-1.5, respectively, and everyone met in the middle by late Sunday night, with the Westgate moving a full point down to 1.5. It looks most likely that the Broncos will remain short road favorites.
Monday: Dolphins (-4.5) at Jets: The advance line was Miami minus-3.5, and, after the Dolphins' near-upset of the Broncos, it was to 4.5 at the Westgate but bet down to 4 as William Hill opened at 4. Most books have it off the board with the Jets playing this Monday night, too.
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</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 12[/h]Chiefs' streak snapped, but still top NFL ATS Standings
Entering the Week 12 Thursday game, Kansas City had covered five straight and had a league-best 8-1-1 ATS record. However, the loss to previously winless Oakland (which, was a respectable 5-5 ATS despite being 0-10 straight up) dropped the Chiefs to 8-2-1 ATS. However, with Arizona also losing and falling to 8-3 ATS along with Indianapolis, K.C. still tops the NFL ATS standings. Philadelphia is next at 7-3-1 ATS, followed by New England (which now owns the longest ATS win streak at four in a row) and Miami at 7-4 ATS. The New York Jets are still the worst ATS team at 2-7-1, but they can move ahead of Tennessee and Jacksonville with a cover Monday night.
Include coaches in your handicapping
There's not enough room to go over all the coaching mistakes we see every week when it comes to timeout/clock management, fourth-down decisions, replay challenges, 2-point conversions, etc. (we'll leave that to the Twitterverse), but the Cleveland-Atlanta endgame was notably bad. The Falcons' Mike Smith had the game won and somehow let the Browns get the ball back with not only 44 seconds left but all three of their timeouts (previously, the Browns' Mike Pettine helped Atlanta get back in the game with some miscues of his own -- as well as Brian Hoyer's ill-advised INTs). There's a reason handicappers love backing coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jeff Fisher; you know they're going to put their team (and you) in the best position to win/cover.
Top over teams/QBs cool off a little
The Packers/Rodgers had their six-game over streak snapped but are still tops in the league at 9-2 with the over. The Patriots/Tom Brady had their seven-game over streak snapped but are still 8-3 with the over along with the Colts/Andrew Luck, Eagles/system QB and Broncos/Peyton Manning. The Saints/Brees can get to 8-3 if they go over on Monday night. The Lions improved to 9-2 with the under by snapping the Pats' over streak, and the Bills get to 9-2 if they stay under in the other Monday night game.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team (SU record) | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) | 8-2-1 | L1 | 4-7 | O2 |
| Arizona Cardinals (9-2) | 8-3 | L1 | 3-7-1 | U2 |
| Indianapolis Colts (7-4) | 8-3 | W1 | 8-3 | U1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) | 7-3-1 | W1 | 8-3 | O4 |
| New England Patriots (9-2) | 7-4 | W4 | 8-3 | U1 |
| Miami Dolphins (6-5) | 7-4 | W2 | 5-6 | O1 |
| Green Bay Packers (8-3) | 6-4-1 | L1 | 9-2 | U1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) | 6-4-1 | W2 | 4-7 | U3 |
| Cleveland Browns (7-4) | 6-4-1 | W1 | 5-6 | O1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (6-4) | 6-4 | W1 | 5-5 | U1 |
| Dallas Cowboys (8-3) | 6-5 | L1 | 6-4-1 | O2 |
| Houston Texans (5-6) | 6-5 | L1 | 6-5 | U2 |
| Minnesota Vikings (4-7) | 6-5 | W1 | 3-8 | U2 |
| Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) | 6-5 | W1 | 6-5 | U1 |
| Oakland Raiders (1-10) | 6-5 | W2 | 6-5 | O1 |
| San Francisco 49ers (7-4) | 5-5-1 | L1 | 5-6 | U2 |
| Denver Broncos (8-3) | 5-6 | L2 | 8-3 | O1 |
| Detroit Lions (7-4) | 5-6 | L2 | 2-9 | U4 |
| Seattle Seahawks (7-4) | 5-6 | W1 | 7-4 | U1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) | 5-6 | L2 | 7-4 | O1 |
| San Diego Chargers (7-4) | 5-6 | L6 | 5-6 | O1 |
| Chicago Bears (5-6) | 5-6 | W2 | 6-5 | U2 |
| St. Louis Rams (4-7) | 5-6 | W2 | 6-5 | O1 |
| Buffalo Bills (5-5) | 4-6 | L2 | 2-8 | U2 |
| New Orleans Saints (4-6) | 4-6 | L2 | 7-3 | U1 |
| Atlanta Falcons (4-7) | 4-7 | L2 | 4-7 | O1 |
| New York Giants (3-8) | 4-7 | W1 | 7-4 | O1 |
| Washington Redskins (3-8) | 4-7 | W1 | 5-6 | U2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) | 4-7 | L1 | 4-7 | U5 |
| Tennessee Titans (2-9) | 3-8 | L1 | 5-6 | O2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) | 3-8 | L2 | 6-5 | U1 |
| New York Jets (2-8) | 2-7-1 | W1 | 5-5 | U4 |
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines. Teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record, then ATS streak. O=over, U=under, P=push |
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