[h=1]Should ATS go into CFP Rankings?[/h][h=3]Debating another angle for the CFP Rankings; plus, weekend betting recap[/h]
By David Purdum | ESPN.com
The 2007 LSU Tigers are the only national champion to finish with a losing record against the spread* in the last 17 seasons, dating back through the BCS era. LSU finished 5-7-2 against the spread that season.
With two weeks left before the College Football Playoff pairings are announced, two of the top four teams in the current rankings -- Alabama (2-8-1 ATS) and Florida State (3-8 ATS) -- are guaranteed to have losing records against the spread.
The playoff committee, of course, isn't determining the four playoff teams by the records against the spread. But should they?
Opening point spreads generally are set to attract even action on both teams. Knowing their clientele, some books may insert some opinion into their openers to attract early money on one side, but for the most part, opening lines are comparable from one book to another.
The betting market then sharpens the point spread, with books adjusting the number based on the amount of money that's wagered and who is wagering it. For example, $100,000 from public bettors may not have as much of an impact on the spread as a $50,000 bet from a gambler who is considered sharp by the books.
Some books will move the point spread without taking a bet at all. They'll simply monitor the market, especially the big, influential offshore sports books, and move the point spread to stay in line with what's being offered across the market. It's a tactic known as "moving on air."
After all the wagering is complete and the point spread is at its tightest, the closing line, in its simplest form, represents the betting market's expectations of what the final margin of victory will be. When a team covers the spread, it exceeds the betting market's expectations; when it fails to cover the spread, it fails to meet them.
Of course, more is expected out of an Alabama or Florida State this season compared to, for example, TCU or Mississippi State. And no one believes Western Michigan, which at 10-1 ATS has the best record against the spread in the nation, deserves a spot in the playoff. But when it comes down to splitting hairs between the final teams in, taking a look a team's record against the spread can be a good indication of which teams have exceed expectations and which ones have failed to meet them.
* Past ATS records according to ESPN Insider Phil Steele.
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</center>ATS Records of Top 7 teams in last week's College Football Playoff Rankings
(Teams with one or no losses; new rankings will be released Tuesday)
1. Alabama 2-8-1
2. Oregon 7-4
3. Florida State 3-8
4. Mississippi State 7-4
5. TCU 8-2
6. Ohio State 7-4
7. Baylor 7-3
[h=4]Odds to win 2015 national championship[/h]Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas
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</center>Big win on 49ers for an MGM house player
The turkey sweats arrived early at the MGM Mirage sports book this week.
On Sunday, a house player at the Mirage placed a series of large moneyline bets on the San Francisco 49ers to beat Washington straight-up. The bettor came to the window multiple times, placing six-figure wagers on the heavily-favored 49ers at big odds.
"He just kept coming back," Jay Rood, Vice President of MGM Race and Sports, said. "He must have been hitting some big poker pots or something and then coming back to the window. He was playing it for six figures a pop and also was hooking it to some (moneyline) parlays."
In addition to the 49ers, the bettor backed the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots andSeattle Seahawks on a $50,000 moneyline parlay that paid around 7-to-5, Rood said. But San Francisco was his biggest play, and by the time the game kicked off, he had a quarter of million dollars riding on the 49ers at odds of minus-500 and greater.
Wonder how his deodorant was holding up when Washington took a 13-10 lead with 7:42 to play?
Thankfully for the bettor -- not so much for the MGM -- San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick engineered an eight-play, 75-yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter, capped byCarlos Hyde's short touchdown run that helped the 49ers survive 17-13.
A house player is a term used for a high-roller casino player or hotel guest who is offered extended limits as a courtesy. It would be unusual for a sports book to offer a bettor that it considers sharp multiple six-figure cracks. Regardless, the 49ers bettor's bankroll is a little bit bigger heading into a tantalizing Thanksgiving weekend.
And don't worry about the MGM, either; an hour before kickoff of the Sunday night game, six times more money had been wagered on the Dallas Cowboys than the New York Giants, according to Rood. The Cowboys failed to cover as around 5-point favorites in a 31-28 win, capping what was described by multiple books as a ho-hum winning weekend.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"></center>Alabama is the favorite in the Iron Bowl for the seventh straight season. The Crimson Tide opened as 9-point favorites over Auburn at the CG Technology sports book. The Wynn opened Alabama -8.5, but the line was up to minus-10 as of Monday morning. Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook, believes the Iron Bowl line will close under double-digits.
Overall, it's the 66th consecutive game Alabama has been favored, the longest such streak in the modern era.
Since Auburn's Chris Davis returned an errant Alabama field goal 109 yards for a game-winning touchdown last season, the Crimson Tide have gone 2-10 against the spread.
The Iron Bowl (7:45 p.m. ET, Saturday; ESPN) highlights another stellar Thanksgiving weekend card that also features Florida at Florida State, Mississippi State at Ole Miss, Arkansas at Missouri, Minnesota at Wisconsin, TCU at Texas, Notre Dame at Southern Cal and Michigan at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes opened as 19.5-point favorites over Michigan and attracted early action. It's the fifth time in the last seven meetings that Ohio State has been a double-digit favorite over the Wolverines.
Several of the marquee games opened off the board due to quarterback injuries:
Arkansas at Missouri: Razorbacks quarterback Brandon Allen left Saturday's win over Ole Miss in the first half after suffering what's been described as a soft tissue injury to his hip. No line had been released as of Monday morning, and Allen's status is up in the air to start the week.
South Carolina at Clemson: The Wynn opened Clemson as a 4-point favorite, despite questions regarding the status of Tigers freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson. The line had dipped to Clemson -3.5 at the Wynn as of Monday morning, before being taken off the board. No other Vegas sports book had posted a line on the game as of Monday morning. Watson suffered a sprained LCL and bone bruise two weeks ago against Georgia Tech. He's expected to practice this week.
Arizona State at Arizona: Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon hurt his already gimpy right ankle in Saturday's win over Utah and was wearing a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. No line had been released as of Monday morning.
[h=4]Early Action for Week 14, per Wynn[/h]*CFB lines opened at 3 p.m. PT, Sunday.
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By David Purdum | ESPN.com
The 2007 LSU Tigers are the only national champion to finish with a losing record against the spread* in the last 17 seasons, dating back through the BCS era. LSU finished 5-7-2 against the spread that season.
With two weeks left before the College Football Playoff pairings are announced, two of the top four teams in the current rankings -- Alabama (2-8-1 ATS) and Florida State (3-8 ATS) -- are guaranteed to have losing records against the spread.
The playoff committee, of course, isn't determining the four playoff teams by the records against the spread. But should they?
Opening point spreads generally are set to attract even action on both teams. Knowing their clientele, some books may insert some opinion into their openers to attract early money on one side, but for the most part, opening lines are comparable from one book to another.
The betting market then sharpens the point spread, with books adjusting the number based on the amount of money that's wagered and who is wagering it. For example, $100,000 from public bettors may not have as much of an impact on the spread as a $50,000 bet from a gambler who is considered sharp by the books.
Some books will move the point spread without taking a bet at all. They'll simply monitor the market, especially the big, influential offshore sports books, and move the point spread to stay in line with what's being offered across the market. It's a tactic known as "moving on air."
After all the wagering is complete and the point spread is at its tightest, the closing line, in its simplest form, represents the betting market's expectations of what the final margin of victory will be. When a team covers the spread, it exceeds the betting market's expectations; when it fails to cover the spread, it fails to meet them.
Of course, more is expected out of an Alabama or Florida State this season compared to, for example, TCU or Mississippi State. And no one believes Western Michigan, which at 10-1 ATS has the best record against the spread in the nation, deserves a spot in the playoff. But when it comes down to splitting hairs between the final teams in, taking a look a team's record against the spread can be a good indication of which teams have exceed expectations and which ones have failed to meet them.
* Past ATS records according to ESPN Insider Phil Steele.
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</center>ATS Records of Top 7 teams in last week's College Football Playoff Rankings
(Teams with one or no losses; new rankings will be released Tuesday)
1. Alabama 2-8-1
2. Oregon 7-4
3. Florida State 3-8
4. Mississippi State 7-4
5. TCU 8-2
6. Ohio State 7-4
7. Baylor 7-3
[h=4]Odds to win 2015 national championship[/h]Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas
| Team | Opening | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5-1 | 8-5 |
| Oregon | 5-1 | 9-2 |
| Florida State | 5-2 | 7-1 |
| TCU | 150-1 | 7-1 |
| Ohio State | 12-1 | 7-1 |
| Mississippi State | 100-1 | 7-1 |
| Baylor | 20-1 | 7-1 |
| Georgia | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| UCLA | 20-1 | 40-1 |
| Missouri | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Georgia Tech | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Arizona State | 30-1 | 100-1 |
| Wisconsin | 25-1 | 100-1 |
| Kansas State | 60-1 | 100-1 |
| Michigan State | 35-1 | 200-1 |
| Arizona | 100-1 | 300-1 |
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</center>Big win on 49ers for an MGM house player
The turkey sweats arrived early at the MGM Mirage sports book this week.
On Sunday, a house player at the Mirage placed a series of large moneyline bets on the San Francisco 49ers to beat Washington straight-up. The bettor came to the window multiple times, placing six-figure wagers on the heavily-favored 49ers at big odds.
"He just kept coming back," Jay Rood, Vice President of MGM Race and Sports, said. "He must have been hitting some big poker pots or something and then coming back to the window. He was playing it for six figures a pop and also was hooking it to some (moneyline) parlays."
In addition to the 49ers, the bettor backed the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots andSeattle Seahawks on a $50,000 moneyline parlay that paid around 7-to-5, Rood said. But San Francisco was his biggest play, and by the time the game kicked off, he had a quarter of million dollars riding on the 49ers at odds of minus-500 and greater.
Wonder how his deodorant was holding up when Washington took a 13-10 lead with 7:42 to play?
Thankfully for the bettor -- not so much for the MGM -- San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick engineered an eight-play, 75-yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter, capped byCarlos Hyde's short touchdown run that helped the 49ers survive 17-13.
A house player is a term used for a high-roller casino player or hotel guest who is offered extended limits as a courtesy. It would be unusual for a sports book to offer a bettor that it considers sharp multiple six-figure cracks. Regardless, the 49ers bettor's bankroll is a little bit bigger heading into a tantalizing Thanksgiving weekend.
And don't worry about the MGM, either; an hour before kickoff of the Sunday night game, six times more money had been wagered on the Dallas Cowboys than the New York Giants, according to Rood. The Cowboys failed to cover as around 5-point favorites in a 31-28 win, capping what was described by multiple books as a ho-hum winning weekend.
College football opening line report<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"></center>Alabama is the favorite in the Iron Bowl for the seventh straight season. The Crimson Tide opened as 9-point favorites over Auburn at the CG Technology sports book. The Wynn opened Alabama -8.5, but the line was up to minus-10 as of Monday morning. Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook, believes the Iron Bowl line will close under double-digits.
Overall, it's the 66th consecutive game Alabama has been favored, the longest such streak in the modern era.
Since Auburn's Chris Davis returned an errant Alabama field goal 109 yards for a game-winning touchdown last season, the Crimson Tide have gone 2-10 against the spread.
The Iron Bowl (7:45 p.m. ET, Saturday; ESPN) highlights another stellar Thanksgiving weekend card that also features Florida at Florida State, Mississippi State at Ole Miss, Arkansas at Missouri, Minnesota at Wisconsin, TCU at Texas, Notre Dame at Southern Cal and Michigan at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes opened as 19.5-point favorites over Michigan and attracted early action. It's the fifth time in the last seven meetings that Ohio State has been a double-digit favorite over the Wolverines.
Several of the marquee games opened off the board due to quarterback injuries:
Arkansas at Missouri: Razorbacks quarterback Brandon Allen left Saturday's win over Ole Miss in the first half after suffering what's been described as a soft tissue injury to his hip. No line had been released as of Monday morning, and Allen's status is up in the air to start the week.
South Carolina at Clemson: The Wynn opened Clemson as a 4-point favorite, despite questions regarding the status of Tigers freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson. The line had dipped to Clemson -3.5 at the Wynn as of Monday morning, before being taken off the board. No other Vegas sports book had posted a line on the game as of Monday morning. Watson suffered a sprained LCL and bone bruise two weeks ago against Georgia Tech. He's expected to practice this week.
Arizona State at Arizona: Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon hurt his already gimpy right ankle in Saturday's win over Utah and was wearing a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. No line had been released as of Monday morning.
[h=4]Early Action for Week 14, per Wynn[/h]*CFB lines opened at 3 p.m. PT, Sunday.
| Matchup | Opening | Monday a.m. |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | -- | -- |
| TCU at Texas | TCU -7 | TCU -6.5 |
| LSU at Texas A&M | LSU -2 | LSU -2.5 |
| Friday | -- | -- |
| Arkansas at Missouri | NL | NL |
| Stanford at UCLA | UCLA -4.5 | UCLA -4.5 |
| Arizona State at Arizona | NL | NL |
| Saturday | -- | -- |
| Michigan at Ohio State | Ohio State -19.5 | Ohio State -20 |
| Tennessee at Vanderbilt | Tennessee -14.5 | Tennessee -17 |
| Minnesota at Wisconsin | Wisconsin -11.5 | Wisconsin -13 |
| Oregon at Oregon State | Oregon -18.5 | Oregon -20.5 |
| Auburn at Alabama | Alabama -8.5 | Alabama -10 |
| Florida at Florida State | Florida State -9 | Florida State -10 |
| Georgia Tech at Georgia | Georgia -14 | Georgia -13 |
| South Carolina at Clemson | Clemson -4 | NL |
| Mississippi State at Mississppi | Mississippi St -1 | Mississippi St -1 |
| Notre Dame at Southern Cal | Southern Cal -6.5 | Southern Cal -7 |
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