NCAAB Systems 2014/15

rolltide · Nov 25, 2014

NCAAB systems thread.... don't really get many before JAN so i don't run them everyday. As such I missed a couple so far this year but caught this one for today:

PLAY ON double digit home favs off b2b fav losses and playing terrible opponent: 31-1 SU, 25-6-1 ATS (on OAK -12.5)

rolltide · Nov 25, 2014

btw, if either OAK/CHIST or WCAR/GAST had a total on the game the UNDER would be worth a look in same system....

PLAY UNDER teams playing on no rest after an overtime game they weren't huge fav or dog and didn't allow >100 points. 71-122-4 o/u (SDSU/PITT u119.5)

rolltide · Nov 30, 2014

YTD 1-1

UNDER with team in 3rd straight away game after b2b away blowout losses. 104-183-4 o/u (DEL/VIL under 134.5)

rolltide · Dec 2, 2014

if Texas vs Texas-Arlington gets a total tonight that will be an under...same system as DEL/VIL from last week. I'll post if I see one (unless y'all see it first)

rolltide · Dec 3, 2014

doesn't look like this one will be lined either...will wait and see

PLAY ON average away team with revenge after allowing 75+ in last meeting and opponent poor-average team themselves. 111-49-3 ATS (on UMKC)

rolltide · Dec 3, 2014

there is one for tonight as UMKC never got lined

OPPOSE ranked fav trying to oppose close loss from last year to this unranked team. 20-51 ATS / 0-0 (on Maryland +6)

rolltide · Dec 3, 2014

one other...

OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 51-15 o/u (DUKE/WISC over 135)

rolltide · Dec 5, 2014

3-2 YTD

FRI = OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 52-15 o/u (UK/TEX over 121.5)

indiana · Dec 5, 2014

R/T...........good luck tonight..........indy

rolltide · Dec 6, 2014

YTD 3-3

seriously, 22 missed free throws and combined 5/32 from 3?

Biz · Dec 6, 2014

I feel your pain. I had them too, and worse watched that absolute brickfest.

rolltide · Dec 12, 2014

missed the 140 this morning....

OVER top 25 dog or tiny fav visiting team that held previous opponent to <49 points. 89-39 o/u, 2-2 2014 (IOWA over 142)

OzCap · Dec 12, 2014

Rolltide: Have you consider removing tournament games?

If you remove tournament games that over percentage drops a fair amount, especially in the last 2-3 years. Still profitable, but much less so (especially if you consider more recent years more heavily).

Oz

rolltide · Dec 13, 2014

OzCap said:
Rolltide: Have you consider removing tournament games?

If you remove tournament games that over percentage drops a fair amount, especially in the last 2-3 years. Still profitable, but much less so (especially if you consider more recent years more heavily).

Oz

no doubt March has been the best month but 57-30 o/u in non-March isn't so horrible

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L (marg, %win)	SDQL
31	13-18-0 (-1.35, 41.9%)	3.3	19-12-0 (2.71, 61.3%)	136.8	10-21 (-4.61, 32.3%)	month = 1
19	9-10-0 (-1.95, 47.4%)	3.5	11-8-0 (3.13, 57.9%)	131.3	6-13 (-5.47, 31.6%)	month = 2
41	16-24-1 (-1.68, 40.0%)	5.8	32-9-0 (5.93, 78.0%)	131.8	11-30 (-7.44, 26.8%)	month = 3
8	4-4-0 (-2.69, 50.0%)	3.1	5-3-0 (-2.31, 62.5%)	134.8	3-5 (-5.75, 37.5%)	month = 11
29	16-12-1 (0.07, 57.1%)	3.4	22-7-0 (9.09, 75.9%)	136.7	14-15 (-3.34, 48.3%)	month = 12

Showing 1 to 5 of 5 entries

OzCap · Dec 13, 2014

Have you run that same query for the last 2-3 seasons (recent performance is always a concern) and I think the net (outside of March) becomes more pronounced.

Interesting to see the reduced totals as the season goes on (134-137 down to 131-132)...especially around tournament time...food for thought

Thanks for all your contributions to the forum, I know these things all take work.

Cheers
Oz

rolltide · Dec 13, 2014

4-3 YTD

tracking a few new ones showing up today for Cal u129 and Oregon State -1 but just tracking at this point...

SAT = PLAY ON away team, both average teams, if lost to same opponent in high scoring game last meeting. 111-50-3 (on Arkansas State +16)

SAT = OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 52-16 o/u (UK/UNC over 133)

indiana · Dec 13, 2014

R/T..........good luck with your action today..........indy

JSHTAX · Dec 13, 2014

what is this system? how can one gain a better understanding how it works?

rolltide · Dec 14, 2014

6-3 YTD

both tracking plays won last night...one play tracking for today is But/Ten o129 and one official play:

PLAY ON fav off OT dog game allowing 67 or less vs opponent off loss. 43-15 ATS, 1-0 2014 (on Clemson -6)

Ilovetobet · Dec 14, 2014

good work yesterday

NCAAB Systems 2014/15

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

Member

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

Member

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

New member

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

New member

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

Member

New member

I'm from the government and I'm here to help

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page