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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY DECEMBER, 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________



***** National Football League Information - Week #13 *****

(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________

Monday's Week #13 Matchup
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

#475 MIAMI @ #476 NY JETS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Dolphins -5.5, Total: 41.5

Geno Smith will step out of the revolving door to start at quarterback as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Monday Night Football. Smith, who has just one win in seven starts on the season, got the call from an apparent lame-duck coach Rex Ryan after Michael Vick struggled in another ugly performance for the Jets last week. Neither quarterback has made much of a difference for the Jets, who are ranked last in the league in passing. "Everybody's on board with this decision," Ryan told reporters. "I have said it all along that I feel we have two good quarterbacks, I definitely feel that. And we have another guy that is a decent quarterback as well, in (Matt) Simms. But I feel that way."

Miami is 0-3 in games decided by four or fewer points after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a 39-36 loss at Denver last Sunday. It was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 in 14 years. The Dolphins have little wiggle room in their playoff hunt that has basically come down to a quest for a wild card berth after losing touch in the division race to New England. "We have to find a way to win some of those games," coach Joe Philbin said. "We are going to be in some more of those games. That's just the way the NFL typically is." The Dolphins also gave up late leads in defeats to Detroit in Week #10 and Green Bay in Week #6.

•ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (6-5 SU, 7-4-0 ATS): Philbin's club is part of a tightly bunched group of playoff contenders. The Dolphins are in 10th place and one game behind a five-team pack fighting for the two wild-card spots. Miami also trails the Patriots by three games for the AFC East lead, though they defeated New England in their opener and travel to Gillette Stadium on December 14th. Ryan Tannehill is having a fine sophomore season with 20 touchdown passes and he's second on the team with 276 yards rushing. Mike Wallace has caught a touchdown pass in his last three games against the Jets but he is dealing with a calf injury and has been outplayed lately by rookie Jarvis Landry, who leads the team with 49 receptions. The Dolphins are ranked fourth in NFL in passing defense allowing 211.7 yards a game.

•ABOUT THE JETS (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS): Vick provided a spark in his first two starts in place of Smith, but he was 7 of 19 for 76 yards before being replaced by Smith in the third quarter Monday. Smith went 10 of 12 for 89 yards, earning another chance this week. The second-year pro hasn't started since October 26th in a 43-23 loss to Buffalo in which he was benched after throwing interceptions on three consecutive possessions. Smith also was replaced after going 4 of 10 for 29 yards and a pick in the last home meeting with the Dolphins, but he led three long scoring drives and completed 17 of 27 for 190 yards on December 29th. New York's Jace Amaro is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, while defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson may be out with a toe injury. Amaro leads all rookie tight ends with 34 catches for 291 yards.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Jets lead their all-time series with Miami by a 50-45-1 margin. On Monday night, the Dolphins play .500 football at 40-40 while New York is 20-29. The visiting team has won the past four games in the series. The teams meet again in Week #17 at Miami.... Tannehill ranks third in the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has thrown 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last six games. However, he did have a key fourth-quarter interception against the Broncos.... Turnovers have been a major issue for the Jets, who are minus-12 on the season, a number that helps explain how the team can be ranked No. 7 in total defense (328.8 yards per game) but be tied for 30th in points allowed (27.5 points per game).... The Dolphins are hoping to have cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan back from injury. Offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James and tight end Charles Clay also could return.

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•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 17.7, OPPONENT 18.7.

--MIAMI is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 18.2, OPPONENT 15.8.

--MIAMI is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 20.6, OPPONENT 18.6.

--MIAMI is 35-13 UNDER (+20.5 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 15.3, OPPONENT 21.7.

--MIAMI is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 17.4, OPPONENT 18.8.

--MIAMI is 29-13 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) in road games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 10.0, OPPONENT 8.0.

--NY JETS are 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 10.9, OPPONENT 26.2.

--NY JETS are 26-10 UNDER (+14.9 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 19.2, OPPONENT 16.9.

--NY JETS are 0-10 against the 1rst half line (-11.0 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 5.6, OPPONENT 14.7.

--NY JETS are 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.1 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 5.0, OPPONENT 8.9.

--NY JETS are 8-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.0 Units) after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 8.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

--NY JETS are 33-13 UNDER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games in December games since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 8.9, OPPONENT 7.7.

•COACHING TRENDS
--JOE PHILBIN is 21-8 UNDER (+12.1 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 20.9, OPPONENT 19.4.

--JOE PHILBIN is 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 19.9, OPPONENT 19.1.

--REX RYAN is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 19.7, OPPONENT 24.6.

--REX RYAN is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 13.0, OPPONENT 20.3.

--REX RYAN is 17-32 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 8.3, OPPONENT 12.5.

--REX RYAN is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 6.0, OPPONENT 6.5.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY JETS is 26-13 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--NY JETS is 25-19 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--24 of 43 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NY JETS is 26-18 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.
--Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings.
--Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New York.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MIA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--MIA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC.
--Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 games in December.

--NYJ are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC.
--NYJ are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 7-3 in NYJ last 10 versus the AFC.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 44 times, while the favorite covered the spread 37 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 69 times, while the underdog won straight up 14 times. 74 games went under the total, while 41 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 56 times, while the underdog covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 117 games went under first half total, while 88 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (MIAMI) -an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=27 PPG), after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(108-63 since 1983.) (63.2%, +38.7 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 7.7 (Average first half point differential = +6.1)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-16).
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 12/1/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 12/1/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_______________________________________________________________

Monday's Notebook

#715 SIENA @ #716 FORDHAM - 7:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Fordham Rams are ranked 338 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 34.4% while attempting 56.0 shots per game. The Rams shooting percentages include 62.8% for free throw percentage and 24.0% for three point percentage so far this season. The Siena Saints are ranked 159 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.1% while attempting 59.8 shots per game. The Saints shooting percentages include 75.4% for free throw percentage and 36.7% for three point percentage so far this season.

•Home and Away: The Rams are 1-2 at home this season, and 0-0 against 1-4 opponents. At home the Rams are averaging 61.5 scoring, and holding teams to 68.0 points scored on defense. The Saints are 2-1 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 2-2 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Saints are averaging 80.3 scoring, and holding teams to 78.7 points scored on defense.

#719 E TENN ST @ #720 MOREHEAD ST - 7:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Morehead St. Eagles are ranked 282 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 38.5% while attempting 58.5 shots per game. The Eagles shooting percentages include 63.9% for free throw percentage and 37.9% for three point percentage so far this season. The East Tennessee St. Buccaneers are ranked 186 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.2% while attempting 61.7 shots per game. The Buccaneers shooting percentages include 65.8% for free throw percentage and 39.3% for three point percentage so far this season.

•Home and Away: The Eagles are 2-0 at home this season, and 0-0 against 4-4 opponents. At home the Eagles are averaging 0.0 scoring, and holding teams to 0.0 points scored on defense. The Buccaneers are 1-1 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 3-1 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Buccaneers are averaging 72.5 scoring, and holding teams to 77.0 points scored on defense.

#721 ORAL ROBERTS @ #722 WEBER ST - 9:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Weber St. Wildcats are ranked 213 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 41.1% while attempting 46.2 shots per game. The Wildcats shooting percentages include 76.1% for free throw percentage and 34.5% for three point percentage so far this season. The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are ranked 344 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 33.9% while attempting 49.0 shots per game. The Golden Eagles shooting percentages include 71.6% for free throw percentage and 25.9% for three point percentage so far this season.

•Home and Away: The Wildcats are 1-0 at home this season, and 0-0 against 2-3 opponents. At home the Wildcats are averaging 0.0 scoring, and holding teams to 0.0 points scored on defense. The Golden Eagles are 0-2 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 2-3 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Golden Eagles are averaging 53.0 scoring, and holding teams to 66.5 points scored on defense.

Monday’s Week #4 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

#709 NEBRASKA @ #710 FLORIDA ST - 7:00 PM
After a three-game losing streak, Florida State has notched back-to-back wins as it prepares to host Nebraska in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Monday. The Seminoles got past Charleston Southern last time out but despite the mini-resurgence, coach Leonard Hamilton knows they have a long way to go. "Right now, I think we are a work in progress," he said.

The Cornhuskers are off to a fast start, their only loss a 66-62 overtime decision at Rhode Island. Nebraska has beaten its other four opponents by an average of more than 17 points. After defeating Tennessee-Martin last time out, coach Tim Miles gave this assessment of his team: "I really liked what we were doing for a long time on offense," said Miles. "We just still turn it over a little too much."

•ABOUT NEBRASKA (4-1 SU, 0-3-0 ATS): Forward Walter Pitchford set career highs against Tennessee-Martin, draining six 3-pointers on his way to 19 points. Pitchford entered the game 1-of-14 on 3-pointers, but assistant coach Kenya Hunter helped him snap out of it. "(Hunter) saw that he was dropping the ball a little and got him to tighten up his release and his shooting pocket," Miles told the Journal Star. "We ran some stuff for him early and I thought that was critical (to get) him going."

•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (3-3 SU, 1-4-0 ATS): Freshman guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes guided the Seminoles to their latest win, scoring 16 points in his third consecutive double-digit effort. He has averaged has averaged 21.3 points in that span as Florida State leans more on raw newcomers in the absence of veteran guards Devon Bookert (foot) and Aaron Thomas (illness). "I think they are inconsistent," Hamilton said of his underclassmen, including Rathan-Mayes, freshman Phil Cofer and sophomore Jarquez Smith. "But I see them mentally engaged and communicating with each other. Until we have a little bit more experience, I imagine we might be a little inconsistent from game to game."

#711 RUTGERS @ #712 CLEMSON - 7:00 PM
Six games into the season and Clemson is still searching for a spark as it prepares to host Rutgers on Monday as part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. The Tigers have struggled on offense, particularly in the last three games during which they have averaged 61.6 points. "I really think we are a team looking for somebody to be the go-to guy, but maybe we don't have him," coach Brad Brownell told the media after a victory over High Point. "When Damarcus (Harrison) and Donte (Grantham) shoot well, we're still a pretty good offensive team."

The Scarlet Knight have had their own struggles on offense, including a 50-point showing in a loss at home to Saint Peter's, but did rebound with 68 points in a win over Vanderbilt in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. Eddie Jordan's team followed that up with a dismal 26-point effort in the Barclays championship, although that was partly a function of playing No. 7 Virginia, which entered as the nation's second-ranked scoring defense. "We played a good team. They did things that make them a good team and they won," Jordan told reporters.

•ABOUT RUTGERS (3-3 SU, 1-3-0 ATS): Against Virginia, the Scarlet Knights were playing their fourth game in seven days and two starters were dealing with physical issues. Myles Mack, who had a season-low four points, had a toothache while Kadeem Jack was playing in his fourth game after missing the first two games with a thumb injury. "We won't use that," Jordan told reporters when asked if the duo's excessive minutes were to blame for their performance. "We want to make sure our guys in the locker room don't use that as an excuse. There's nothing to be ashamed about."

•ABOUT CLEMSON (4-2 SU, 2-1-0 ATS): Harrison and Grantham are among four players who average in double figures for the Tigers, along with leading-scorer Landry Nnoko and Jaron Blossomgame. One player Brownell can ill afford to be without is guard Rod Hall, who is questionable after injuring his ankle early in the High Point game. "We'll see if we can get him back for Monday," Brownell said of his senior, who averages nine points and three assists. "We don't have a lot of depth there, but I think Jordan (Roper) did some good things and got us in the offense well."
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#713 S CAROLINA @ #714 MARSHALL - 7:30 PM
Frank Martin left a successful Kansas State program for a rebuilding project at South Carolina. After going 28-38 in his first two years, Martin and his troops are off to an uneven start in 2013-14 and look to take a step forward Monday when they visit Marshall in their first true road contest. The Gamecocks dropped the final two games of the Charleston Classic against mid-majors Charlotte and Akron but snapped the brief skid Wednesday with an 89-75 win over UNC Asheville.

Laimonas Chatkevicius led the way against UNC Asheville with career highs of 17 points and 13 rebounds after being inserted as a starter for the first time this season. Marshall, under first-year coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of former NBA coach Mike D'Antoni, is coming off a 29-percent shooting effort in a 68-59 loss to Cleveland State on Friday. Ryan Tyler had 19 points and nine rebounds in defeat.

•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-3 SU, 3-3-0 ATS): Chatkevicius is averaging 9.2 points on 50-percent shooting and leads the team with seven rebounds per game. The Gamecocks are only as good as their talented group of guards, led by 6-5 Sindarius Thornwell, an All-SEC Freshman team member a season ago who leads the team in scoring (13.5) and steals (2.5), but is just 7-of-34 from the arc. Fellow starting guards Tyrone Johnson and Duane Notice combine for 17 points and 6.5 assists while freshman point guard Marcus Stroman is averaging 7.0 points and 4.3 assists in 25 minutes per game off the bench.

•ABOUT MARSHALL (3-3 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): D'Antoni's squad has dropped three straight after opening with wins over Jacksonville State, Savannah State and West Virginia Tech. The Thundering Herd will be without starting forward Shawn Smith (12.0 points) for the second straight game due to a left shoulder injury. Taylor (16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds) is one of nine players in the country averaging at least 16 points and 10 rebounds.

#717 MARIST @ #718 BOSTON COLLEGE - 7:00 PM
Boston College had little luck in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off and struggled to hold onto the ball in back-to-back losses to finish off the tournament. The Eagles will try to snap the skid when they host Marist on Monday. Boston College shot 54.3 percent from the field but turned the ball over 21 times in a loss to West Virginia before struggling from the field and turning it over 17 times in a 65-53 loss to Dayton closing out the trip.

The Eagles have yet to score 70 points in a game and are going up against a Red Foxes squad holding opponents to an average of 61.3 points in their last three games. Marist has its own issues on offense and was held to an average of 49 points in the first two games of the Gulf Cost Showcase before earning a 68-64 win over Fresno State in the seventh-place game Wednesday. The Red Foxes have been without leading scorer Khallid Hart (left foot) for the last three games and he will miss the contest with Boston College as well.

•ABOUT MARIST (1-4 SU, 1-2-0 ATS): First-year coach Mike Maker picked up his first win with the triumph over Fresno State as Chavaughn Lewis exploded for 28 points and seven rebounds. Lewis (19.4 points) is picking up some of the slack left from Hart (24.5), who is expected to miss four weeks. Junior forward Phillip Lawrence is getting a turn in the spotlight as well and recorded a career high for the second straight game with 19 points in the win over the Bulldogs.

•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (2-3 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): Eagles junior guard Olivier Hanlan scored at least 17 points in each of the first five games but was limited to 10 points on 5-of-16 shooting in the loss to Dayton while going 0-of-9 from 3-point range. Hanlan is 6-of-27 from beyond the arc and Boston College is struggling to 19.8 percent from 3-point range as a team. Forward Aaron Brown, who connected at a 38-percent clip from deep last season, is 5-of-30 while Patrick Heckmann is 3-of-14.

#731 TEXAS SOUTHERN @ #732 BAYLOR - 9:00 PM
Baylor, which suffered its first loss of the season to Illinois, 62-54, on Friday night in the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational, returns home to host Texas Southern on Monday night. The Bears have won seven straight home games dating to last season and are 25-4 against in-state opponents since 2011-12. Baylor will face a Tigers squad coming in off its lone win of the season, a 71-59 victory over Lamar on Friday.

Baylor has been one of the nation's premier defensive squads this season. The Bears are allowing 51.5 points per game, which ranks eighth nationally. Baylor held Memphis to 15 second half points in a 71-47 semifinal win in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving night, the fewest points allowed in any half in 11 seasons under coach Scott Drew.

•ABOUT TEXAS SOUTHERN (1-5 SU, 2-0-0 ATS): The Tigers return two starters from last year's team that lost to Cal Poly in the NCAA Tournament's opening round. Senior point guard Madarious Gibbs is averaging 11.3 points and 5.0 assists. Junior forward Chris Thomas, a transfer from Marshall who was dismissed from that program in June for violating team rules, is averaging a team-best 16.5 points and 6.2 rebounds.

•ABOUT BAYLOR (5-1 SU, 2-1-0 ATS): The Bears played the last two games without star point guard Kenny Chery who was sidelined with a foot injury suffered in a 67-51 win over Stephen F. Austin on Nov. 24. Drew had hoped Chery, who is averaging 10.3 points and 3.0 assists, would play in the Las Vegas Invitational title game against Illinois but he couldn't go. Junior forward Taurean Prince leads the team in scoring (13.2) and had 20 points in the win over Memphis.

Hoop Trends - Monday
•FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 60.5, OPPONENT 66.7.

•BOSTON COLLEGE is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 75.3, OPPONENT 63.5.

•CLEMSON is 14-30 (-39.7 Units) against the money line after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games since 1997.
The average score was CLEMSON 66.1, OPPONENT 65.5.

•RUTGERS is 1-11 (-11.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after a game where they attempted 7 or less free throws since 1997.
The average score was RUTGERS 25.3, OPPONENT 29.8.

•MOREHEAD ST is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 32.3, OPPONENT 31.8.

•JIMMY PATSOS is 43-16 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was PATSOS 70.1, OPPONENT 66.6.

Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=40%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).
(23-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-0 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.9
The average score in these games was: Team 76.9, Opponent 54.5 (Average point differential = +22.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (56% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-27).

•Play Against - A road team versus the 1rst half line (NEBRASKA) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), off 2 home no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.
(22-3 since 1997.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.8, Opponent 28.8 (Average first half point differential = +7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
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NHL

Hot teams
-- Tampa Bay won last five games, allowing five goals. Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Avalanche won five of their last seven games.
-- Bruins won four of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Columbus lost last six games, scoring eight goals. Florida lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Montreal lost last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Oilers lost last nine games, scoring total of five goals in last five games. Arizona lost last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Anaheim lost eight of its last twelve games.

Series records
-- Blue Jackets won their last eight games with Florida.
-- Rangers lost four of last five games with Tampa Bay.
-- Canadiens won last two games with Colorado, 6-3/3-2.
-- Coyotes won seven of last eight games with Edmonton.
-- Ducks won four of last six games with Boston.

Totals
-- Last seven Columbus-Florida games stayed under.
-- Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Tampa Bay games.
-- Eight of last eleven Colorado games went over.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Anaheim games.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | TAMPA BAY at NY RANGERS
Play On - Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (NY RANGERS) off a win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 4th game in 7 days
134-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 56.1 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )

NHL | MONTREAL at COLORADO
Play On - Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (COLORADO) off a win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 4th game in 7 days
134-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 56.1 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )
 
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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last seven games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Nuggets won six of last seven games (5-1-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won six of last seven games (5-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards covered two of their last eight games (1-5 HF).
-- 76ers are 0-16, but covered three of last four (5-4 HU).
-- Jazz lost their last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Minnesota won/covered twice in last eleven games.

Series Records
-- Heat won six of last eight games with Washington.
-- Spurs won seven in row vs 76ers, winning last three played in Philly by 10-5-24 points.
-- Nuggets won four of last six games with Utah.
-- Clippers won their last nine games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Five of last six Miami road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Nine of last twelve Utah games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Clipper games.

Back-to-Backs
-- Miami is 4-1 when it played the night before.
-- Spurs are 2-2 when they played night before.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MINNESOTA at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games
74-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 34.4 units )
1-4 this year. ( 20.0% | -3.4 units )

NBA | DENVER at UTAH
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games
26-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% | 22.5 units )

NBA | SAN ANTONIO at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (PHILADELPHIA) terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season, in December games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | TEXAS SOUTHERN at BAYLOR
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (BAYLOR) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )

CBB | NEBRASKA at FLORIDA ST
Play On - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (FLORIDA ST) after a combined score of 125 points or less, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season
94-50 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 39.4 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

CBB | E TENN ST at MOREHEAD ST
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MOREHEAD ST) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, playing only their 3rd game in a week
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )
 

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Football Crusher
New York Jets +7 over Miami Dolphins
(System Record: 35-5, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 35-37-2
 

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Hockey Crusher
Florida Panthers +102 over Columbus Blue Jackets
(System Record: 31-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 31-18-1
 

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Basketball Crusher
Texas Southern +21 over Baylor
(System Record: 16-0, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 16-15
-1
 
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Randall The Handle

NFL

Dolphins (6-5) at Jets(2-9)
LINE: MIAMI by 7
Are the Jets a crummy team? Answer: Yes. Are the Dolphins better than their 6-5 record would indicate? Answer: Yes. Are we willing to give away a converted touchdown to support those affirmations? Answer: Not on your life. This is a prime-time game that the Jets hardly deserve, but one they’ll be hosting for all the land to see. We saw Gang Green deliver a stellar performance on a Thursday night in New England, coming up just short in a 27-25 battle. The Jets were a 9½-point dog in that one and while things have not gone well for Rex Ryan’s club, should Miami really be a seven-point choice on a cool night up in New Jersey? The Fish have had trouble stopping the run recently and that happens to be New York’s bread and butter (perhaps not by choice) ranking fifth in the NFL. Geno Smith returns to pivot the Jets and, after learning from the bench for a few weeks, New York is hopeful he can execute at his position. Even if he’s mediocre, we’ve got plenty of room for a cover here.
TAKING: JETS +7
 

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Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + Belgrano UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 668-23, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 668-558-102
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 12/1/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________



***** Monday, 12/1/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________________________

Betting Notes - Monday

•Hot Teams
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last seven games (5-2 vs. spread).
-- Nuggets won six of last seven games (5-1-1 vs. spread).
-- Clippers won six of last seven games (5-2 vs. spread).

•Cold Teams
-- Wizards covered two of their last eight games (1-5 HF).
-- 76ers are 0-16, but covered three of last four (5-4 HU).
-- Jazz lost their last five games (1-4 vs. spread).
-- Minnesota won/covered twice in last eleven games.

•Totals
-- Five of last six Miami road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Nine of last twelve Utah games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Clipper games.

•Back-to-Backs

-- Miami is 4-1 when it played the night before.
-- Spurs are 2-2 when they played night before.

•Series Records
-- Heat won six of last eight games with Washington.
-- Spurs won seven in row vs. 76ers, winning last three played in Philly by 10-5-24 points.
-- Nuggets won four of last six games with Utah.
-- Clippers won their last nine games with Minnesota.

Hoop Trends - Monday
•PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 100.5, OPPONENT 110.6.

•LA CLIPPERS are 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 101.9, OPPONENT 88.7.

•DENVER is 16-4 against the money line (+12.1 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.4, OPPONENT 100.4.

•UTAH is 25-7 against the 1rst half line (+17.3 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 50.1, OPPONENT 47.8.

•WASHINGTON is 24-5 OVER (+18.5 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 52.8, OPPONENT 50.4.

•RANDY WITTMAN is 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was WITTMAN 96.9, OPPONENT 91.8.

Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team (<=25%).
(31-6 since 1996.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 44.1 (Total first half points scored = 91.6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
___________________________________________

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Monday's Week #6 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

#701 MIAMI @ #702 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
The Washington Wizards are expecting much better results when they host the Miami Heat on Monday in their second meeting this season. The Heat knocked off the visiting Wizards by 12 points in the season opener, but Washington was without its second-leading scorer the last two seasons, Bradley Beal, who missed the first nine games following wrist surgery. The Wizards are 3-3 since his return but are still dealing with injuries, most notably the three-game absence of Nene (foot).

The Heat got past the struggling New York Knicks on Sunday night as Dwyane Wade returned from a seven-game absence due to a hamstring injury and scored 27 points. Miami has played well so far in the second game of back-to-backs, winning four of the previous five. Chris Bosh could be in line for a second straight big game against Washington, especially if Nene is unavailable.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): Miami has a chance to move three games over .500 for the third time this season and they may need to depend heavily on Wade for some backcourt scoring against the Wizards. Starting point guard Norris Cole has been wearing a splint on his left middle finger, which is not his primary shooting hand, but seems to be affecting his willingness and ability to shoot the ball. He’s 2-for-11 in the two games since returning from a two-game absence with the injury, though he doesn’t have a turnover in those 49 minutes.

•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (10-5 SU, 6-9-0 ATS): Martin Gortat is coming off a season-high 24 points and 13 rebounds against the Pelicans on Saturday, helping Washington end a two-game skid. The player who needs to find his shooting touch is leading scorer John Wall, who is shooting 37.2 percent in the last four games and has 19 turnovers in that span. Beal is averaging 16.2 points on 44.7 percent shooting in 31.5 minutes per game.

#703 SAN ANTONIO @ #704 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
The San Antonio Spurs look to extend their winning streak to eight games when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. The Spurs started their four-game road swing with a 111-89 victory over the Boston Celtics on Sunday and hope to win their 16th consecutive regular-season game against Eastern Conference opponents. San Antonio has beaten the 76ers seven straight times and has held them under 100 points in each of their last nine meetings.

Philadelphia has lost a franchise-record 16 straight games to open the season after falling 110-103 to the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The 76ers are two games shy of matching the worst start in NBA history set by the New Jersey Nets at the beginning of the 2009-10 campaign and they haven't defeated San Antonio since Feb. 11, 2011. "I don't want those guys worrying about any record," coach Brett Brown told reporters. "I think they will be rewarded for the work they're putting in."

•ABOUT THE SPURS (12-4 SU, 8-8-0 ATS): San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich returned to the sidelines to oversee the victory over the Celtics after missing the previous two games due to a minor medical procedure. Danny Green led the way with 18 points and Boris Diaw added 15 to go along with seven rebounds as the Spurs handed Boston its sixth straight home defeat. Tony Parker was limited to nine points on 3-of-10 shooting and was held below 20 points for the first time in his last five outings.

•ABOUT THE 76ERS (0-16 SU, 7-9-0 ATS): Michael Carter-Williams collected 18 points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds for the third triple-double of his career in the loss to the Mavericks. Tony Wroten - who leads the team with 17.9 points and 6.3 assists per game - missed the Dallas loss with a sprained right knee and is doubtful for Monday. Jerami Grant - who was selected 39th overall in the 2014 NBA draft - made his debut on Saturday after missing the first 15 games with an ankle injury.

#705 DENVER @ #706 UTAH - 9:05 PM
The Denver Nuggets have not been over .500 since winning the first game of the season but can get back there when they visit the Utah Jazz on Monday. The Nuggets failed in their last chance to become a winning team but crushed the Phoenix Suns 122-97 on Friday to get back to even. The Jazz have not had a winning record yet this season and are losers of five straight, including three in a row at home.

Utah is putting together a young core of players under a first-year head coach and is dealing with the inconsistencies stemming from that approach. “I’d be shocked if we weren’t inconsistent right now, to be honest with you,” Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. “Inconsistency is human nature. To do something well all the time, that’s excellence.” The Nuggets have been much more consistent of late and are winners of six of their last seven games.

•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS): Denver’s big transformation has come on the defensive end, where it has held opponents to 97.3 points in the last seven wins as opposed to giving up 116.3 during a six-game slide that dropped the team to 1-6. The Nuggets put in work on the offensive end with a season-high 122 points on Friday as seven players scored in double figures. Point guard Ty Lawson is leading the charge and has recorded a points/assists double-double in six of the last seven contests.

•ABOUT THE JAZZ (5-12 SU, 8-9-0 ATS): Utah fell behind 35-18 after the first quarter in Saturday’s 112-96 home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers and never recovered. “When you’re playing from behind all game, it’s tough to generate emotion and enthusiasm—and that’s what we need to make up for our inconsistency right now,” Snyder told reporters. The bright spot of late has been forward Gordon Hayward, who has scored 24 or more in three of the last four games and is 19-of-33 from the field in the last two contests.

#707 MINNESOTA @ #708 LA CLIPPERS - 10:35 PM
The Los Angeles Clippers will try to maintain their momentum after a highly successful road trip when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. The Clippers won six out of seven on the second-longest road trip of the season—mileage-wise—in the NBA this season. They’ll face a vulnerable opponent in the injury-riddled Timberwolves, who haven’t strung together two wins all season.

Blake Griffin has punished Minnesota in his career, averaging 24.1 points and 9.7 rebounds in 15 games. He’s coming off his most efficient game of the season in Saturday’s win against the Utah Jazz, scoring 28 points on 13-for-18 from the floor and making his only 3-point try. The Timberwolves have little to counter Griffin's strength now that Kevin Love has moved on to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Nikola Pekovic is sidelined with an ankle injury, so expect another high-bar performance.

•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (4-11 SU, 6-9-0 ATS): Andrew Wiggins was a game-time decision Sunday against the Trail Blazers because of flu-like symptoms but played through the discomfort and logged seven points and a rebound in 18 minutes. At least Wiggins had an excuse for his average play. Nothing seemed amiss with fellow rookie Zach LaVine, yet two days after scoring 28 points against the Lakers he managed to go scoreless in 11 minutes against Portland.

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (11-5 SU, 6-10-0 ATS): Anyone who has watched Jamal Crawford long enough knows he’s as streaky a shooter as they come in the NBA. He’s definitely on one of his hot streaks lately, scoring at least 20 points in the last four games and shooting 31-for-58 in the process. Crawford is a 41.2-percent shooter in his 15-year career, so it’s rare when he makes half his shots for this long a stretch.
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