[h=1]Early Week 14 NFL line moves[/h][h=3]Where early money is going for NFL Week 14, plus biggest Week 13 takeaways[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
When poker players split a pot, they say the chopped it.
That's what bookmakers also say when it's pretty much a break-even day or weekend, and that was the scenario in Las Vegas sports books in NFL betting over the long Thanksgiving weekend. Now, from covering the sports betting scene here for 16 years as of this week, I've come to learn that when book managers says they broke even, that usually means they won but it's nothing to brag about ("a small loss" usually means a book broke even on bets, but they consider it a loss since they have their overhead to pay).
The point-spread results were even-stephen, as favorites and underdogs went 7-7 ATS through Sunday afternoon. The Denver-Kansas City game closed a consensus pick 'em here in Vegas, which mostly worked in the books' favor with the majority of the late money coming in on the Chiefs as the Broncos won 29-16. The under of 49.5 also helped on a day when overs went 7-2 in the early games and split 1-1 in the afternoon (with the high-scoring and very popular "over" teams New England and Green Bay staying under their total of 58).
Among big winners for the books were the Jacksonville Jaguars upsetting the New York Giants25-24 as 3-point home underdogs; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers covering in a 14-13 loss to Cincinnati, which was bet from a 3.5- to a 6-point favorite; and the San Diego Chargers beating the Baltimore Ravens 34-33 after closing as 6.5-point road underdogs -- that also killed a lot of teaser liability for the books.
Most books also needed the Packers to cover as three-point home favorites, as the Patriots were a popular 'dog, and they got their wish with a 26-21 victory as the usually reliable Stephen Gostkowski's potential spread-covering 47-yard field-goal attempt with 2:30 left sailed wide right. Bettors also had their share of wins as Indianapolis, Houston, Buffalo, St. Louis and Minnesota covered as favorites, as Detroit did on Thanksgiving Day.
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have impacted the upcoming week's lines.
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[h=3]Early Week 14 line moves[/h][h=4]Week 14 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Cowboys -3.5
Bears
Ravens
Dolphins -3
Steelers
Bengals -4 (-3.5)
Colts -3.5
Browns
Texans -3.5
Jaguars
Giants
Titans PK (-1)
Panthers
Saints -9 (-9.5)
Buccaneers
Lions -9.5
Rams -1.5
Redskins
Jets
Vikings -5.5
Bills
Broncos -10
Chiefs
Cardinals PK
49ers -7.5
Raiders
Seahawks
Eagles -1
Patriots -3
Chargers
Falcons
Packers -11 (-11.5)
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the line for the Broncos' and Chiefs next games were taken off the board).
Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 14 that were put up last Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Cowboys (-3.5) at Bears: The Westgate advance line last week was Dallas minus-3, but after both teams lost on Thanksgiving, the Westgate reopened it at 3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Offshores went up with a mix of 3/3.5 and the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas went with 3.5. It looks like it'll stay just over a field goal.
Ravens at Dolphins (-3): The advance line was Miami minus-3 (even) but made minus-3 (flat, meaning the standard minus-110 on each side) on Sunday. William Hill also went with 3. Most other books don't have a line posted with the Dolphins playing Monday night, so we'll see how that game impacts this line.
Steelers at Bengals (-4): The advance line was Cincinnati minus-3.5, but increased to 4 at the Westgate on Sunday after the Bengals won and the Steelers lost. William Hill also opened it at 4, but offshore books ranged from 3 to 4 and the line looks like it has settled back at 3.5.
Colts (-3.5) at Browns: The Westgate had this at 3 last week, but after the Colts blew out the Redskins and the Browns lost to the Bills, the Westgate reopened at 3.5. Even though offshore giant Pinnacle opened at minus-3 (minus-120), the line has mostly settled at 3.5 and isn't expected to change too much whether Hoyer or Manziel starts for Cleveland.
Texans (-3.5) at Jaguars: The advance line was Houston minus-3.5, and after both teams won Sunday, the Westgate reopened right at 3.5. Offshores had a mix of 3.5/4, but the Wynn and William Hill books went with 4 and that looks like it's going to be the more common spread.
Giants at Titans (pick 'em): This was bet from pick 'em last week, and that's right where the Westgate reopened Sunday after both teams lost. The Wynn actually opened New York minus-1, but offshores opened Tennessee minus-1 and that's where everyone was by early Sunday night.
Panthers at Saints (-9): The Westgate had New Orleans minus-6.5 last week, but after the Saints won in Pittsburgh and the Panthers lost in Minnesota, we've seen this big adjustment. Offshores opened with a mix of 9.5/10 and William Hill went with 10 (and the Westgate was quickly bet to 9.5), so we could see this line wavering between those numbers all week.
Buccaneers at Lions (-9.5): This one could also hover around 9.5/10 all week. It was 9 last week at the Westgate and adjusted to 9.5 after Detroit's win on Thursday and Tampa's (spread-covering) loss on Sunday. Offshores had a mix of 9.5/10 and William Hill went with 9.5 while the Wynn dealt minus-10 (even).
Rams (-1.5) at Redskins: The Westgate had it pick 'em last week, but after the Rams won and the Redskins lost on Sunday, it reopened at St. Louis minus-1.5. Offshores ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 and William Hill split the difference at 2, which is where the Westgate was bet to later Sunday night. It looks like this will stay in that area just under a field goal.
Jets at Vikings (-5.5): This was 5.5 last week at the Westgate and reopened the same after Minnesota's rout of Carolina. Most books have it off the board with the Jets playing Monday night, so we'll see if their performance impacts this line.
Bills at Broncos (-10): Westgate had this 9.5 last week, but even with the Bills winning on Sunday, the line was reopened at 10 on Sunday afternoon before the Broncos' game on Sunday night. It was probably a good move, as Denver's win at Kansas City did nothing to make us think this line will open lower when more books post it Monday morning. CG Technology also went with Denver minus-10.
Chiefs at Cardinals (pick 'em): The Westgate had this as Arizona minus-3 (even) last Tuesday, but the Cardinals' second straight loss dropped it to pick 'em when the line reopened Sunday before the Chiefs' loss on Sunday night. CG Technology had it as 2.5 earlier Sunday afternoon and lowered it to 1.5.
49ers (-7.5) at Raiders: Westgate's advance line was 7.5, and that's right where it reopened Sunday after both lost over the weekend. Offshores opened with a mix of 7/7.5 and so did other Vegas books, so it'll probably waver between those two numbers.
Seahawks at Eagles (-1): This was Philadelphia minus-1.5 and lowered just a bit to minus-1 after both won on Thanksgiving. It opened as low as pick 'em at the Wynn, but William Hill also went with Philly minus-1 and while Pinny opened pick 'em, that got bet to Philly minus-2. It'll probably settle somewhere in those numbers between PK and a field goal.
Patriots (-3) at Chargers: Westgate has this at New England minus-4 last week, but the Patriots' loss at Green Bay and the Chargers' win at Baltimore had it adjusted to 3 on Sunday afternoon. The Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas both went with 3.5 and offshores had a mix of 3/3.5 and the Westgate went to minus-3 (minus-120) in early wagering. It looks to be headed toward 3.5 as the most common number, but several books will probably offer minus-3 with added juice.
Monday: Falcons at Packers (-11): The advance line was Green Bay minus-11.5, and the Westgate lowered it to 11 after both teams won Sunday, but it was bet up to 11.5 in early wagering. Offshore opened with a mix or 11/11.5, but it looks like 11.5 will be the more common number with some books probably moving even closer to the two touchdowns if the public backs the Pack as expected.
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</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 13[/h]Colts take over top spot in NFL ATS standings
Kansas City's loss on Sunday night not only hurt the Chiefs' playoff chances, but also knocked them from the top spot in the NFL ATS standings. Indianapolis -- which easily covered as an 8.5-point favorite over Washington in its 49-27 victory -- improved to 9-3 ATS to take over first place. The Chiefs dropped their second in a row to fall into a tied with the Eagles at 8-3-1 ATS. Those are the only teams still hitting over 70 percent after Arizona dropped to 8-4 ATS. The New York Jets are still in the cellar at 2-8-1 ATS, but can pass Tennessee (3-9 ATS) with a point-spread cover Monday night.
Best bet in NFL so far this season? Buffalo under
It hasn't mattered where the Bills play this season -- on the road, at home in Buffalo, or even on a neutral field in Detroit -- they've been a solid bet at 10-2 with the under, as their 26-10 win over Cleveland on Sunday was their fourth under in a row (though an overturned late defensive TD almost put it over the total of 42). Detroit is the next-best under team at 9-3, with Tampa Bay -- which has a league-best six-game under streak -- and Cincinnati at 8-4. Green Bay, which had been the best bet in the league at 9-1 with the over two weeks ago, had its second straight under (it's hard to keep going over when the total is 58) and falls to 9-3 with the over along with Indianapolis and New Orleans.
First-place teams mostly stepped up
We knew some first-place teams were going to lose in Week 13, because the AFC East-leading Patriots were visiting the NFC North-leading Packers, the NFC West-leading Cardinals were visiting the NFC South-leading Falcons and the NFC East co-leading Eagles and Cowboys were facing each other. But besides those games, the AFC North's Bengals, AFC South's Colts and AFC West's Broncos all won (though Cincy didn't cover). Even the NFC South's Saints, who entered the week tied for the division lead but trailing on the tiebreakers, won at Baltimore.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
When poker players split a pot, they say the chopped it.
That's what bookmakers also say when it's pretty much a break-even day or weekend, and that was the scenario in Las Vegas sports books in NFL betting over the long Thanksgiving weekend. Now, from covering the sports betting scene here for 16 years as of this week, I've come to learn that when book managers says they broke even, that usually means they won but it's nothing to brag about ("a small loss" usually means a book broke even on bets, but they consider it a loss since they have their overhead to pay).
The point-spread results were even-stephen, as favorites and underdogs went 7-7 ATS through Sunday afternoon. The Denver-Kansas City game closed a consensus pick 'em here in Vegas, which mostly worked in the books' favor with the majority of the late money coming in on the Chiefs as the Broncos won 29-16. The under of 49.5 also helped on a day when overs went 7-2 in the early games and split 1-1 in the afternoon (with the high-scoring and very popular "over" teams New England and Green Bay staying under their total of 58).
Among big winners for the books were the Jacksonville Jaguars upsetting the New York Giants25-24 as 3-point home underdogs; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers covering in a 14-13 loss to Cincinnati, which was bet from a 3.5- to a 6-point favorite; and the San Diego Chargers beating the Baltimore Ravens 34-33 after closing as 6.5-point road underdogs -- that also killed a lot of teaser liability for the books.
Most books also needed the Packers to cover as three-point home favorites, as the Patriots were a popular 'dog, and they got their wish with a 26-21 victory as the usually reliable Stephen Gostkowski's potential spread-covering 47-yard field-goal attempt with 2:30 left sailed wide right. Bettors also had their share of wins as Indianapolis, Houston, Buffalo, St. Louis and Minnesota covered as favorites, as Detroit did on Thanksgiving Day.
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have impacted the upcoming week's lines.
<offer></offer>
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday (note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those). This is the section where we note which games are off the board due to injuries, but this week there were lines posted for all 16 games, even the Colts-Browns game with the doubt about whether Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel would be named starter and the Giants-Titans game with Zach Mettenberger being listed as questionable after being knocked out of Sunday's game.[h=3]Early Week 14 line moves[/h][h=4]Week 14 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Cowboys -3.5
Bears
Ravens
Dolphins -3
Steelers
Bengals -4 (-3.5)
Colts -3.5
Browns
Texans -3.5
Jaguars
Giants
Titans PK (-1)
Panthers
Saints -9 (-9.5)
Buccaneers
Lions -9.5
Rams -1.5
Redskins
Jets
Vikings -5.5
Bills
Broncos -10
Chiefs
Cardinals PK
49ers -7.5
Raiders
Seahawks
Eagles -1
Patriots -3
Chargers
Falcons
Packers -11 (-11.5)
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the line for the Broncos' and Chiefs next games were taken off the board).
Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 14 that were put up last Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Cowboys (-3.5) at Bears: The Westgate advance line last week was Dallas minus-3, but after both teams lost on Thanksgiving, the Westgate reopened it at 3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Offshores went up with a mix of 3/3.5 and the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas went with 3.5. It looks like it'll stay just over a field goal.
Ravens at Dolphins (-3): The advance line was Miami minus-3 (even) but made minus-3 (flat, meaning the standard minus-110 on each side) on Sunday. William Hill also went with 3. Most other books don't have a line posted with the Dolphins playing Monday night, so we'll see how that game impacts this line.
Steelers at Bengals (-4): The advance line was Cincinnati minus-3.5, but increased to 4 at the Westgate on Sunday after the Bengals won and the Steelers lost. William Hill also opened it at 4, but offshore books ranged from 3 to 4 and the line looks like it has settled back at 3.5.
Colts (-3.5) at Browns: The Westgate had this at 3 last week, but after the Colts blew out the Redskins and the Browns lost to the Bills, the Westgate reopened at 3.5. Even though offshore giant Pinnacle opened at minus-3 (minus-120), the line has mostly settled at 3.5 and isn't expected to change too much whether Hoyer or Manziel starts for Cleveland.
Texans (-3.5) at Jaguars: The advance line was Houston minus-3.5, and after both teams won Sunday, the Westgate reopened right at 3.5. Offshores had a mix of 3.5/4, but the Wynn and William Hill books went with 4 and that looks like it's going to be the more common spread.
Giants at Titans (pick 'em): This was bet from pick 'em last week, and that's right where the Westgate reopened Sunday after both teams lost. The Wynn actually opened New York minus-1, but offshores opened Tennessee minus-1 and that's where everyone was by early Sunday night.
Panthers at Saints (-9): The Westgate had New Orleans minus-6.5 last week, but after the Saints won in Pittsburgh and the Panthers lost in Minnesota, we've seen this big adjustment. Offshores opened with a mix of 9.5/10 and William Hill went with 10 (and the Westgate was quickly bet to 9.5), so we could see this line wavering between those numbers all week.
Buccaneers at Lions (-9.5): This one could also hover around 9.5/10 all week. It was 9 last week at the Westgate and adjusted to 9.5 after Detroit's win on Thursday and Tampa's (spread-covering) loss on Sunday. Offshores had a mix of 9.5/10 and William Hill went with 9.5 while the Wynn dealt minus-10 (even).
Rams (-1.5) at Redskins: The Westgate had it pick 'em last week, but after the Rams won and the Redskins lost on Sunday, it reopened at St. Louis minus-1.5. Offshores ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 and William Hill split the difference at 2, which is where the Westgate was bet to later Sunday night. It looks like this will stay in that area just under a field goal.
Jets at Vikings (-5.5): This was 5.5 last week at the Westgate and reopened the same after Minnesota's rout of Carolina. Most books have it off the board with the Jets playing Monday night, so we'll see if their performance impacts this line.
Bills at Broncos (-10): Westgate had this 9.5 last week, but even with the Bills winning on Sunday, the line was reopened at 10 on Sunday afternoon before the Broncos' game on Sunday night. It was probably a good move, as Denver's win at Kansas City did nothing to make us think this line will open lower when more books post it Monday morning. CG Technology also went with Denver minus-10.
Chiefs at Cardinals (pick 'em): The Westgate had this as Arizona minus-3 (even) last Tuesday, but the Cardinals' second straight loss dropped it to pick 'em when the line reopened Sunday before the Chiefs' loss on Sunday night. CG Technology had it as 2.5 earlier Sunday afternoon and lowered it to 1.5.
49ers (-7.5) at Raiders: Westgate's advance line was 7.5, and that's right where it reopened Sunday after both lost over the weekend. Offshores opened with a mix of 7/7.5 and so did other Vegas books, so it'll probably waver between those two numbers.
Seahawks at Eagles (-1): This was Philadelphia minus-1.5 and lowered just a bit to minus-1 after both won on Thanksgiving. It opened as low as pick 'em at the Wynn, but William Hill also went with Philly minus-1 and while Pinny opened pick 'em, that got bet to Philly minus-2. It'll probably settle somewhere in those numbers between PK and a field goal.
Patriots (-3) at Chargers: Westgate has this at New England minus-4 last week, but the Patriots' loss at Green Bay and the Chargers' win at Baltimore had it adjusted to 3 on Sunday afternoon. The Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas both went with 3.5 and offshores had a mix of 3/3.5 and the Westgate went to minus-3 (minus-120) in early wagering. It looks to be headed toward 3.5 as the most common number, but several books will probably offer minus-3 with added juice.
Monday: Falcons at Packers (-11): The advance line was Green Bay minus-11.5, and the Westgate lowered it to 11 after both teams won Sunday, but it was bet up to 11.5 in early wagering. Offshore opened with a mix or 11/11.5, but it looks like 11.5 will be the more common number with some books probably moving even closer to the two touchdowns if the public backs the Pack as expected.
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</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 13[/h]Colts take over top spot in NFL ATS standings
Kansas City's loss on Sunday night not only hurt the Chiefs' playoff chances, but also knocked them from the top spot in the NFL ATS standings. Indianapolis -- which easily covered as an 8.5-point favorite over Washington in its 49-27 victory -- improved to 9-3 ATS to take over first place. The Chiefs dropped their second in a row to fall into a tied with the Eagles at 8-3-1 ATS. Those are the only teams still hitting over 70 percent after Arizona dropped to 8-4 ATS. The New York Jets are still in the cellar at 2-8-1 ATS, but can pass Tennessee (3-9 ATS) with a point-spread cover Monday night.
Best bet in NFL so far this season? Buffalo under
It hasn't mattered where the Bills play this season -- on the road, at home in Buffalo, or even on a neutral field in Detroit -- they've been a solid bet at 10-2 with the under, as their 26-10 win over Cleveland on Sunday was their fourth under in a row (though an overturned late defensive TD almost put it over the total of 42). Detroit is the next-best under team at 9-3, with Tampa Bay -- which has a league-best six-game under streak -- and Cincinnati at 8-4. Green Bay, which had been the best bet in the league at 9-1 with the over two weeks ago, had its second straight under (it's hard to keep going over when the total is 58) and falls to 9-3 with the over along with Indianapolis and New Orleans.
First-place teams mostly stepped up
We knew some first-place teams were going to lose in Week 13, because the AFC East-leading Patriots were visiting the NFC North-leading Packers, the NFC West-leading Cardinals were visiting the NFC South-leading Falcons and the NFC East co-leading Eagles and Cowboys were facing each other. But besides those games, the AFC North's Bengals, AFC South's Colts and AFC West's Broncos all won (though Cincy didn't cover). Even the NFC South's Saints, who entered the week tied for the division lead but trailing on the tiebreakers, won at Baltimore.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team (SU record) | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines. Teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record, then ATS streak. O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts (8-4) | 9-3 | W2 | 9-3 | O1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) | 8-3-1 | W2 | 8-4 | U1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) | 8-3-1 | L2 | 4-8 | U1 |
| Arizona Cardinals (9-3) | 8-4 | L2 | 4-7-1 | O1 |
| Green Bay Packers (9-3) | 7-4-1 | W1 | 9-3 | U2 |
| New England Patriots (9-3) | 7-5 | L1 | 8-4 | U2 |
| Miami Dolphins (7-5) | 7-5 | L1 | 5-7 | U1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (7-5) | 7-5 | L1 | 7-5 | O2 |
| Houston Texans (6-6) | 7-5 | W1 | 7-5 | O1 |
| Minnesota Vikings (5-7) | 7-5 | W2 | 4-8 | O1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) | 6-5-1 | L1 | 4-8 | U4 |
| Cleveland Browns (7-5) | 6-5-1 | L1 | 5-7 | U1 |
| Denver Broncos (9-3) | 6-6 | W1 | 8-4 | U1 |
| Detroit Lions (8-4) | 6-6 | W1 | 3-9 | O1 |
| Seattle Seahawks (8-4) | 6-6 | W2 | 7-5 | U2 |
| San Diego Chargers (8-4) | 6-6 | W1 | 6-6 | O2 |
| San Francisco 49ers (7-5) | 5-6-1 | L2 | 5-7 | U3 |
| Dallas Cowboys (8-4) | 6-6 | L2 | 6-5-1 | U1 |
| Buffalo Bills (7-5) | 6-6 | W2 | 2-10 | U4 |
| St. Louis Rams (5-7) | 6-6 | W3 | 7-5 | O2 |
| Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) | 6-6 | L1 | 7-5 | O1 |
| Oakland Raiders (1-11) | 6-6 | L1 | 7-5 | O2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) | 5-7 | L3 | 8-4 | O2 |
| Atlanta Falcons (5-7) | 5-7 | W1 | 5-7 | O2 |
| New Orleans Saints (5-7) | 5-7 | W1 | 9-3 | O2 |
| Chicago Bears (5-7) | 5-7 | L1 | 7-5 | O1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) | 5-7 | W1 | 4-8 | U6 |
| New York Giants (3-9) | 4-8 | L1 | 8-4 | O2 |
| Washington Redskins (3-9) | 4-8 | L1 | 6-6 | O1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) | 4-8 | W1 | 7-5 | O1 |
| New York Jets (2-10) | 3-8-1 | W1 | 5-7 | U6 |
| Tennessee Titans (2-10) | 3-9 | L2 | 6-6 | O3 |
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