[h=1]Week 14: NFL Playoff Probabilities[/h]
Wharton professor Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody run 20,000 full-season simulations each week to assess every NFL team’s chance of making the playoffs. The winner of each game is determined by a mathematical model that forecasts how each team would fare against a league-average team on a neutral field, but also factors in home-field advantage and chance.
Massey-Peabody have all roads going through Green Bay in the NFC, with the Packers currently sitting as both the conference and Super Bowl favorite (40% chance of making the Super Bowl, 21% chance of winning it). And the next most likely team to emerge from the NFC is not the defending Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks but the Eagles, who Seattle meets in Week 14 in Philadelphia. The Seahawks’ problem is that they still trail the NFC West by one game to the reeling Arizona Cardinals, who they must overtake if they want to play even one playoff game at home.
The more interesting battle is between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Whoever emerges with this seeding, and the home field throughout the playoffs that comes with it, will be the favorite to advance to the Super Bowl. Currently, the simulations most often pick the Broncos, despite a tie-breaking loss earlier this year to the Patriots. A key for New England will be winning a very tough game Sunday night in San Diego, though the oddsmakers favor the Patriots by a field goal.
Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns said they stuck with Brian Hoyer over rookie Johnny Manziel at quarterback because they are fighting for a playoff spot at 7-5. But Massey-Peabody’s simulations say head coach Mike Pettine’s playoff chances are so slim after last week’s defeat in Buffalo that they can reasonably be discounted. The Browns’ 4.5% probability to make the playoffs is the lowest among all AFC teams not officially eliminated, and a distant fourth in the AFC North.
Another big game to watch on Sunday is the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. With a win over Pittsburgh, the Bengals will increase their current 62.4% odds to win the seemingly hotly-contested AFC North.
Each division actually has a prohibitive favorite. Even the New Orleans Saints, technically behind the Atlanta Falcons due to an earlier loss in Atlanta, have nearly three times the chance to prevail in the NFC South mostly due to a Week 16 game against the Falcons in New Orleans.
- By
- Michael Salfino
<dl class="wp-caption "><dt class="wp-caption-dt">
</dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="text-align: left">The Green Bay Packers celebrate during a 26-21 win over the New England Patriots.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd wp-cite-dd" style="text-align: right">Reuters</dd></dl>
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</dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="text-align: left">The Green Bay Packers celebrate during a 26-21 win over the New England Patriots.</dd><dd class="wp-caption-dd wp-cite-dd" style="text-align: right">Reuters</dd></dl>
Wharton professor Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody run 20,000 full-season simulations each week to assess every NFL team’s chance of making the playoffs. The winner of each game is determined by a mathematical model that forecasts how each team would fare against a league-average team on a neutral field, but also factors in home-field advantage and chance.
Massey-Peabody have all roads going through Green Bay in the NFC, with the Packers currently sitting as both the conference and Super Bowl favorite (40% chance of making the Super Bowl, 21% chance of winning it). And the next most likely team to emerge from the NFC is not the defending Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks but the Eagles, who Seattle meets in Week 14 in Philadelphia. The Seahawks’ problem is that they still trail the NFC West by one game to the reeling Arizona Cardinals, who they must overtake if they want to play even one playoff game at home.
The more interesting battle is between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Whoever emerges with this seeding, and the home field throughout the playoffs that comes with it, will be the favorite to advance to the Super Bowl. Currently, the simulations most often pick the Broncos, despite a tie-breaking loss earlier this year to the Patriots. A key for New England will be winning a very tough game Sunday night in San Diego, though the oddsmakers favor the Patriots by a field goal.
Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns said they stuck with Brian Hoyer over rookie Johnny Manziel at quarterback because they are fighting for a playoff spot at 7-5. But Massey-Peabody’s simulations say head coach Mike Pettine’s playoff chances are so slim after last week’s defeat in Buffalo that they can reasonably be discounted. The Browns’ 4.5% probability to make the playoffs is the lowest among all AFC teams not officially eliminated, and a distant fourth in the AFC North.
Another big game to watch on Sunday is the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. With a win over Pittsburgh, the Bengals will increase their current 62.4% odds to win the seemingly hotly-contested AFC North.
Each division actually has a prohibitive favorite. Even the New Orleans Saints, technically behind the Atlanta Falcons due to an earlier loss in Atlanta, have nearly three times the chance to prevail in the NFC South mostly due to a Week 16 game against the Falcons in New Orleans.
