STATSYSTEMS SPORTS TNF REPORT
THURSDAY DECEMBER, 11th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #15 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Thursday's Week #15 Matchup
Systems Analyst William Stillman
#301 ARIZONA @ #302 ST LOUIS
TV: 8:25 PM EST, NFL Network
Line: Rams -4, Total: 39.5
Though the offense has sputtered since quarterback Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending knee injury against the St. Louis Rams one month ago, the Arizona Cardinals remain atop the NFC standings. But to build on a much-needed victory and avoid a third straight road loss Thursday night - while missing their leading passer and rusher - the Cardinals must prevent St. Louis from becoming the first team in 38 years to shut out three straight opponents. "For some teams, (playing in December) doesn't mean a damn thing except the season's almost over," Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said. "This one means a lot because everything rides from here on in, so every game is a real playoff game, especially in the NFC."
Arizona (10-3) has four offensive touchdowns in four games since a 31-14 win over St. Louis on November 9th, when Palmer tore his ACL while being sacked by safety Mark Barron in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals weren't an offensive juggernaut with Palmer under center, though they recorded at least 24 points five times while going 6-0 in games he started. They scored at least 20 in the three Drew Stanton started as Palmer was sidelined with a shoulder problem earlier this season, but have averaged 14.0 during his latest starting stint as he's thrown five interceptions in four games. Top rusher Andre Ellington also struggled after Palmer went down, and he was placed on season-ending injured reserve this week with a hip problem.
However, his replacement, second-year back Kerwynn Williams, came through with 100 yards on 19 carries in his third NFL game Sunday in a 17-14 home victory over Kansas City. "I didn't know what my role was going to be," said Williams, who had never touched the ball prior to Sunday. "I just wanted to be prepared whatever it was." The Cardinals avoided a third straight loss and remained one game ahead of Seattle in the West. They also own the tiebreaker over Green Bay for the top spot in the conference. Arizona, which fell 19-3 at Seattle on November 23rd, hosts the rematch next weekend.
The Cardinals know they first face a tough task against the Rams (6-7), who have allowed 34 points while going 3-1 since losing at Arizona. They outscored Oakland and Washington 76-0 in the last two weeks. No team has blanked three consecutive opponents since the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers. "They're playing as good a football as anybody now," Arizona defensive end Calais Campbell said. "It's a division game, a team you know. They know us, guys you've played against multiple times. It's going to be a good football game." Though the Rams' latest conquests came against two of the league's lowest-scoring teams with a combined 5-21 record, they're confident that dominance can continue against the offensively challenged NFC leaders.
"I want to see it again," said coach Jeff Fisher, whose team held Washington to 206 total yards in Sunday's 24-0 road victory. "We need to keep playing, keep preparing the way we are." St. Louis allowed 244 yards in a 52-0 rout of the Raiders on November 30th, part of an impressive three-game winning streak at home. The other two victories were against last season's Super Bowl participants, beating Seattle 28-26 and holding Denver to its lowest point total of the season in a 22-7 win. The Rams limited the Cardinals to a season-low 28 rushing yards on 22 carries last month and have allowed an average of 58.7 while winning four of six.
"We've been locked in and just getting better and tightening up on all the little plays that were hurting us," safety Rodney McLeod said. St. Louis has recorded 13 sacks in the last two games, including 4 1/2 by defensive end Robert Quinn. "Guys are playing lights-out right now," said Quinn, who has 10 1/2 sacks on the season. "Hopefully, we just keep it going." The Rams have recorded more than 20 points in four straight games after doing so three times in the first nine. They've returned two interceptions and a punt for touchdowns in those four. Shaun Hill has completed 62.0 percent of his passes with six TDs and two INTs while starting the last four games.
He earned the job after Austin Davis struggled against Arizona last month, when Patrick Peterson had a 30-yard interception return for a TD and Antonio Cromartie took back Davis' fumble 14 yards for a score. Five of Peterson's 14 career interceptions have come against the Rams. Arizona has allowed an average of 16.5 points in the last six games, though the only time it yielded more than 20 during that stretch came in a 29-18 loss to Atlanta on November 30th in its most recent road contest. Larry Fitzgerald caught a season-high nine passes for 112 yards against the Rams last month and has 29 catches for 288 with three TDs in the last three meetings. In that same span, Rams tight end Jared Cook has 274 yards and three scores. He had two TD receptions Sunday.
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•KEY STATS
--ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 27.6, OPPONENT 16.5.
--ARIZONA is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 19.1, OPPONENT 20.0.
--ARIZONA is 19-38 against the 1rst half line (-22.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.5, OPPONENT 14.2.
--ARIZONA is 11-31 against the 1rst half line (-23.1 Units) off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.7, OPPONENT 13.2.
--ST LOUIS is 11-30 ATS (-22.0 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.4, OPPONENT 24.6.
--ST LOUIS is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 30.8, OPPONENT 19.4.
--ST LOUIS is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 19.0, OPPONENT 18.6.
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 17.0, OPPONENT 6.7.
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season this season.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.7, OPPONENT 8.4.
--ST LOUIS is 17-4 against the 1rst half line (+12.6 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.6, OPPONENT 10.1.
--ST LOUIS is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was ST LOUIS 14.0, OPPONENT 7.9.
--ST LOUIS is 29-9 OVER (+19.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.2, OPPONENT 13.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BRUCE ARIANS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ARIANS 24.2, OPPONENT 17.9.
--BRUCE ARIANS is 7-19 against the 1rst half line (-13.9 Units) as an underdog versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ARIANS 8.6, OPPONENT 13.6.
--JEFF FISHER is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 21.8, OPPONENT 20.2.
--JEFF FISHER is 44-19 OVER (+23.1 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 24.6, OPPONENT 22.0.
--JEFF FISHER is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in December games as the coach of ST LOUIS.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.2, OPPONENT 18.5.
--JEFF FISHER is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of ST LOUIS.
The average score was ST LOUIS 6.2, OPPONENT 8.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 20-10 against the spread versus ST LOUIS since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 18-12 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--15 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
--Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in St. Louis.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARI is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--ARI is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
--Over is 7-1-1 in ARI last 9 games in Week #15.
--STL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--STL is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week #15.
--Under is 21-5-1 in STL last 27 games in December.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 50 times, while the underdog covered the spread 46 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 65 times, while the underdog won straight up 32 times. 82 games went over the total, while 41 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 91 times, while the underdog covered first half line 82 times. *No EDGE. 110 games went over first half total, while 77 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (ARIZONA) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23), after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(36-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 7.9 (Average first half point differential = +8.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-42).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (219-163).
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