Fantasy Sit/Start

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

Playoff time, got one head-scratcher.

PPR league with a major twist, RB get a point for every 5 yards instead of every 10. All other scoring is PPR standard.

Are you playing Lamar Miller @ NE, Keenan Allen vs DEN, or Jeremy Hill @ CLE?

Allen has shredded Denver in his career and was putting together a killer run before last week.

Miller probably won't score on the ground vs NE but should catch a few passes out of the backfield and be good for 50-60 yards, which is 10-12 points in this league.

Hill is splitting carries but ESPN has him projected highest at 20 points.

ESPN has Allen projected at 17 vs Miller's 16.

I'm leaning Allen. Thoughts?

shdw01 · Dec 11, 2014

2x pts on yards plus PPR, I like the WR here

VIEJODINOSAUR · Dec 11, 2014

No brainer....Allen

Thank me later...

JakeT. · Dec 11, 2014

I like Lamar Miller. Wouldn't mess with Allen covered by Talib. Browns a tough D to run on for Hill who is splitting carries. Dolphins should find success on the ground game and with Wallace covered up by Revis we should see Miller catch 4-5 passes out of the backfield.

slapshot · Dec 11, 2014

No question Hill

slapshot · Dec 11, 2014

Bengals going with one back looks like Hill not splitting carries this week

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

slapshot said:
No question Hill

slapshot said:
Bengals going with one back looks like Hill not splitting carries this week

Where are you seeing this?

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

shdw01 said:
2x pts on yards plus PPR, I like the WR here

The 2x points on yards is only for RB.

WR is one point every 10.

If yardage points were equal Allen would be a no-brainer.

slapshot · Dec 11, 2014

HarryCaray said:
Where are you seeing this?

After 13 games it sounds like Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is moving to one running back to take the bulk of the carries and the conventional wisdom is it is going to be rookie <nobr>Jeremy Hill</nobr> and his 4.7 yards per average.
Since <nobr>Giovani Bernard</nobr> returned to the lineup three games ago against Houston, Hill has carried it 39 times and Bernard 33, but Jackson doesn’t like the total average per of 3.9 yards.
“I'm used to having one guy kind of dominate some carries because in order for backs to be really good, they've got to get lathered up to play,” Jackson said after Wednesday’s practice. “You've got to get a feel for the game. We have two capable guys and they're different guys and we'll let it play itself out, but I think we have a pretty good idea which way we're headed…Those guys are very capable. I just don't think I did a very good job this past week.”
In the 42-21 loss to the Steelers, Hill had 46 yards on eight carries and Bernard had 17 on six carries. Jackson said the plan was to run the ball more in the fourth quarter with the lead, but the Bengals lost it with about 11 minutes left.
“We were ahead and all of a sudden we thought we had a chance to make some hay there in the end. I hate to say this: That's the other side. That's when you start running,” Jackson said. “You look at a runner and all the rushes start to happen. We didn't get a chance to have that happen. I thought we did some good things earlier in the game and as the game progressed, there were some other things that we had going pretty good and then you look up and it's the fourth quarter and you've only rushed it this much and then all of a sudden, the score changed. So at the end of the day, we've just got to do it better.”
When Jackson was the offensive coordinator for the Raiders in 2010, he had Darren McFadden playing 13 games and Michael Bush 14 and McFadden finished with 223 carries to Bush’s 158. Jackson also called the plays as the head coach the next season, but McFadden was hurt most of the year and Bush led the way with 256 carries.
Hill is on pace for 187 carries and Bernard 175.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Notes-One-heavy-duty-back-Manziel-downplays-Lewis-remark-Halls-resolve/914a27f4-5c1b-4218-9954-e5995d657e1f

shdw01 · Dec 11, 2014

HarryCaray said:
The 2x points on yards is only for RB.

WR is one point every 10.

If yardage points were equal Allen would be a no-brainer.

Shit I had this backwards on the yards....

I take miller all day....he will get touches both receptions and rushing....plus he is a TD threat

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

shdw01 said:
Shit I had this backwards on the yards....

I take miller all day....he will get touches both receptions and rushing....plus he is a TD threat

Aren't you a Dolphins fan?

FearTheRaven · Dec 11, 2014

You have a true coin-flip on your hands sir.

I think I would roll with Miller. Cle is tough against the run.

For projected points I have Miller 16, Hill 15, Allen 13

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

Allen's last 3 games before going against Revis:

8/63/0
6/104/1
11/121/2

He was 9/73/1 on 13 targets last time he played Denver and has 5 TD in 4 career games vs the Broncos...

That is what has me leaning Allen. Curious how you only have him projected for 13 points. That's like a 6/70/0 line...

MIKEY.1TIME · Dec 11, 2014

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
No brainer....Allen

Thank me later...

+1

GoBlue34 · Dec 11, 2014

Millers agent complained this week that he isn't getting enough touches.

Not saying it will mean more touches but throwing it out there

shdw01 · Dec 11, 2014

HarryCaray said:
Aren't you a Dolphins fan?

Hahaha....shhhhh

FearTheRaven · Dec 11, 2014

HarryCaray said:
Allen's last 3 games before going against Revis:

8/63/0
6/104/1
11/121/2

He was 9/73/1 on 13 targets last time he played Denver and has 5 TD in 4 career games vs the Broncos...

That is what has me leaning Allen. Curious how you only have him projected for 13 points. That's like a 6/70/0 line...

Have him at 6/77. He could blow up. Den gives up the 10th most fantasy points to wrs. The big lines he put up were against the teams that give up the 6th and 4th most fantasy points to wrs.

My thinking was that the RB yardage is too valuable to pass up.

PatsFanatic · Dec 11, 2014

If Talib doesn't play I don't know how you don't start Allen.

ERockMoney · Dec 11, 2014

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

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ontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> This is a very difficult decision, but I’d lean towards Miller. Here are a few observations:

New England’s rushing defense numbers are massively skewed. Against top 16 rushing offenses the Patriots allow 147 yards per game and a whopping 4.9 ypc. These figures are even more disturbing considering a few of these games their opponents stopped running the ball later in the game because they were behind
On the other hand, New England only allows 68 yards per game on the ground and 2.8 ypc versus bottom 16 rushing offenses
Cleveland appears to be improving versus the run, but is on a streak of mostly horrid rushing offenses. When they faced top tier rushing offenses earlier in the season they were gashed. However, they did stop Cincinnati on the ground in their last meeting
Allen torched Denver in the first half in their earlier meeting with eight catches and a TD. Denver made some adjustments and held him to one catch in the second half despite the fact San Diego was throwing the entire half because they were down big. Was this defensive adjustment a fluke?
My numbers project Miller around 110-120 yards from scrimmage with 3-4 catches. I have similar projections for Hill with the exception that Bernard may/will steal some of those yards, 30-40, more?
Allen should be around 6-7 catches for 60-70 yards
As for TD’s, I’m projecting both Miami and Cincinnati in the 17-20 point range and San Diego 21-24, likely giving Allen a better probability for a TD, especially with Denver pass defense showing a major negative trend.
If I read correctly, RB’s get a point every five yards, which would push me to Miller with my biggest concern being New England routing Miami early and limiting Miller. The presence of Bernard and likely low scoring defensive game in Cleveland would keep me off Hill.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.

HarryCaray · Dec 11, 2014

ERockMoney said:
 This is a very difficult decision, but I’d lean towards Miller. Here are a few observations:

New England’s rushing defense numbers are massively skewed. Against top 16 rushing offenses the Patriots allow 147 yards per game and a whopping 4.9 ypc. These figures are even more disturbing considering a few of these games their opponents stopped running the ball later in the game because they were behind

On the other hand, New England only allows 68 yards per game on the ground and 2.8 ypc versus bottom 16 rushing offenses

Cleveland appears to be improving versus the run, but is on a streak of mostly horrid rushing offenses. When they faced top tier rushing offenses earlier in the season they were gashed. However, they did stop Cincinnati on the ground in their last meeting

Allen torched Denver in the first half in their earlier meeting with eight catches and a TD. Denver made some adjustments and held him to one catch in the second half despite the fact San Diego was throwing the entire half because they were down big. Was this defensive adjustment a fluke?

My numbers project Miller around 110-120 yards from scrimmage with 3-4 catches. I have similar projections for Hill with the exception that Bernard may/will steal some of those yards, 30-40, more?

Allen should be around 6-7 catches for 60-70 yards

As for TD’s, I’m projecting both Miami and Cincinnati in the 17-20 point range and San Diego 21-24, likely giving Allen a better probability for a TD, especially with Denver pass defense showing a major negative trend.

If I read correctly, RB’s get a point every five yards, which would push me to Miller with my biggest concern being New England routing Miami early and limiting Miller. The presence of Bernard and likely low scoring defensive game in Cleveland would keep me off Hill.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.

Thanks for the thoughts.

Agree it is a tough decision and I'm so evenly matched with this guy on paper (projected to win by 2) that this decision will probably make the difference.

Here's my whole team, anyone you would bench to start Miller and Allen?

I start 1 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, and 1 TE/WR/RB Flex

For those spots I have:

Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, Jeremy Hill, Calvin Johnson, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, Anquan Boldin

The only TE I have on the roster is Julius Thomas

Right now I have this lineup

RB: Foster
RB/WR: Allen
WR: Megatron
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Julius Thomas
FLEX: TY Hilton

Bench: Miller, Hill, Boldin

Usually my strategy is to start 2 or even 3 RB because of the extra points but I've run into some bad luck at RB this season. Matchups might dictate going WR heavy this week...