3 Saturday w/analysis

All plays are 2 units

Carolina +137 over PHILADELPHIA
1:00 PM EST. OT included. When will it end? We’re on a horrible streak of nothing but bad luck as we continue to run into hot goaltenders with teams that absolutely dominate play. Last night was another prime example, as L.A. outshot the Habs 46-20 and lost 6-2. On Thursday, we had Calgary, who outshot the Sabres 45-19 and lost 4-3. On Monday, we had Carolina over New Jersey and lost 2-1 after the ‘Canes outshot the Devils, 40-16. The list goes on and on and while it’s frustrating, it’s only a matter of time before we go on a huge run in the NHL because we’re on top of it without the results. That brings us to the Hurricanes once again. Carolina’s eight wins are the worst in the East and second worst in the league ahead of only the Oilers seven wins. That, too, will change, as Carolina is a very decent hockey team without the results. Carolina has dropped four in a row. They’ve outshot every opponent over that span and dominated play against both New Jersey and Detroit. The ‘Canes allow just an average of 27 shots on net per game, which is 8th in the NHL and ranks them on the same level as Nashville, Vancouver, and Chicago among others. Carolina’s problem is a lack of production but that’s bound to change, as they are getting the chances and have several players that can score. The Hurricanes are without question the unluckiest team on ice right now but they still offer up tremendous value and we’ll continue to back them when it’s called for.

Philadelphia is coming off a 4-1 win against the Devils. They returned home from a grueling five-game trip that started at Madison Square Gardens and ended in Columbus. In between those two, the Flyers played three games on the West Coast in San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles. This is their second game back from said trip and if teams aren’t flat in their first game back, they are very often flat in the second game. Besides that, the Flyers are one of the more beatable clubs in the league with a defense that gets caught running around in its own end and with two goaltenders that are shaky as hell. Philadelphia’s 86 goals allowed are just two ahead of Buffalo’s 88 allowed. We like the matinee start and we like the hunger in the ‘Canes belly, as they continue to work hard to snap this offensive funk. Overlay.

Minnesota -½ +121 over Arizona
Regulation only. We love that the Wild have dropped two of their past three games including the first game of this short, three-game trip. The Wild lost in San Jose on Thursday and they have the Blackhawks on deck Tuesday, so a loss here means they’re looking at a 0-3 trip. Don’t count on that happening. Minnesota leads the league by allowing the fewest shots on net per game. They are 11-2 against teams that are not in the top-16 in the standings and that applies here. The Wild are scoring goals and goaltender Darcy Kuemper is playing much better these past few games than he was earlier. In fact, Minnesota has scored four or more in half of their past eight games. This all bodes well against the NHL’s most beatable team.

Arizona, unlike Buffalo, has putrid goaltending with Mike Smith. If he’s not in net it leaves Devan Dubnyk, an Oiler castoff that has dropped three straight and allowed 12 goals over that span. The Coyotes also rank dead last in the league in goals scored on 5-on-5 play with an average of 0.65 goals per game. That’s another problem among many facing Minnesota here because The Wild are one of the least penalized teams in the league, ranking 5th best and their penalty kill ranks third best at 88.1%. The ‘Yotes have one win over their past eight games and that lone victory occurred against Edmonton. Over their past four games, Arizona has allowed four goals or more in all of them while being outscored 19-5 over that span. Arizona excels at nothing. They are weak defensively, they can’t score, they have garbage goaltending and they rank 25th in penalty killing. Now several players are on the block including their best player, defenseman, Keith Yandle. Dude can’t wait to get the hell out of Arizona and we can’t wait for this game to start.

TORONTO +100 over Detroit
OT included. The Red Wings will play their third game in four days here and the taild-end of back-to-backs after losing at home to Florida last night. Twice this season the Red Wings have been in the same situation and although they are 1-1 in those games, they have been badly outplayed both times. The last time occurred against Carolina just last weekend, when Detroit won 3-1 but was outshot 35-22. To make matters worse, this is the second time in nine days that Detroit will play three games in four days. They will also use backup goaltender Peter Mrazek and although he’s 3-0, he was tagged for three goals by Winnipeg, four by New Jersey and the ‘Canes managed just one. Those aren’t three offensive or opportunistic clubs like the Maple Leafs are.

We looked up the definition of the Hart Trophy: The Hart Memorial Trophy, originally known as the Hart Trophy, is awarded annually to the "player judged most valuable to his team" in the National Hockey League (NHL). The Hart Memorial Trophy has been awarded 90 times to 54 different players since its beginnings in 1924. We looked it up because without Jonathan Bernier, Toronto is one of the five worst teams in the league. With him, the Maple Leafs win more games than any team would with any other player out of the lineup. That includes the Pens without Crosby or the Blackhawks without Toews and that makes Bernier the runaway leader for the Hart Trophy. With him in net, the Maple Leafs always have a chance, as they have proven over and over and over since he arrived here. The Maple Leafs are well-rested for this one. They are playing on two full days of rest for the second time this week. Furthermore, no team in the NHL buries their chances quite like the Maple Leafs. They are 5-1 over their past six, they are 7-1 over their last eight home games and they’ve scored four or more in six of their past nine games. Go Johnny go.