STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY DECEMBER, 21st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #16 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #15
•Biggest Favorite To Cash: Tom Brady threw for 287 yards and a pair of touchdowns as New England took over in the second half to surge past visiting Miami (41-13) and clinch the AFC East. Rob Gronkowski made three catches for 96 yards and a score while Julian Edelman picked up 88 receiving yards and a touchdown for the Patriots (11-3), who have won six straight and 12 of the last 14 AFC East titles. LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen each added a rushing TD as New England locked up a postseason berth and remained in line for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Ryan Tannehill went 29-of-47 for 346 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions as the Dolphins (7-7) fell for the fourth time in six games to see their wild-card hopes take a big hit. Mike Wallace had five receptions for 104 yards and a score, but Miami's defense allowed 293 yards in the second half.
Russell Wilson threw for 168 yards and a touchdown and Seattle's defense dominated in the second half to end visiting San Francisco's postseason hopes (17-7). Marshawn Lynch rushed for 76 of his 91 yards after the break and scored the go-ahead touchdown late in the third quarter as the Seahawks (10-4) won their fourth straight to remain one game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. Wilson was only 12-of-24 and threw an interception but also tossed a 10-yard scoring pass to rookie Paul Richardson early in the fourth. Colin Kaepernick finished 11-of-19 for 141 yards for the 49ers (7-7), who were held to 245 total yards - 67 in the second half - en route to their third consecutive loss. Frank Gore scored San Francisco's lone touchdown on a 10-yard run, but both he and backup Carlos Hyde were injured.
•Biggest Underdog To Cash: On Thursday, Arizona (+6) stifled St. Louis 12-6 as a road underdog. The Cardinals cashed money-line tickets as high as plus-230 (Bet $100 to win $230). Chandler Catanzaro kicked four field goals and Arizona's defense turned in a dominant outing to hold off host St. Louis. Arizona survived despite losing quarterback Drew Stanton, who was 12-for-20 for 109 yards before being taken off on a cart with a right knee injury. Kerwynn Williams rushed for 75 yards on 15 attempts and Stepfan Taylor added 61 on 14 carries for the Cardinals (11-3), who tied the franchise record for wins in a season. Shaun Hill finished 20-of-39 for 229 yards with an interception for the Rams (6-8), who were eliminated from playoff contention. St. Louis held Arizona to 274 total yards and did not allow a touchdown for a third straight game.
Dan Carpenter kicked four field goals and host Buffalo benefited from a swarming defensive performance to keep QB Aaron Rodgers in check and maintain its flickering postseason hopes. Defensive end Mario Williams blocked an attempted field goal and forced a fumble on a sack of Rodgers, resulting in a game-sealing safety with 1:51 remaining in the fourth quarter. Marcus Thigpen had a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown and safety Bacarri Rambo recorded his first two career interceptions in the second half for the Bills (8-6), who have won three in a row at home. Eddie Lacy rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown for the Packers (10-4), who saw their five-game winning streak come to an end. After throwing for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in his previous five games, Rodgers went 17-of-42 for 185 yards with two picks while Randall Cobb had seven receptions for 96 yards.
•Totals: Total Players watched the Under go 8-2 in the first 10 games of Week #15. In the late games on Sunday, the Under went 4-0. Including Thursday night’s outcome between the Cardinals and Rams, the Under went 12-2 in the first-half of the first 14 games. Sticking with first-half results, the Dolphins added a late touchdown in the second quarter, which helped Over (24.5) bettors in the Miami-New England matchup. Bettors with Under (23.5) in the first-half of the Redskins-Giants game were very happy to see RG3’s touchdown overturned with a fumble. Instead of Washington leading 17-7 at halftime, its lead was only 10-7 over New York. The worst total beat took place in the Kansas City-Oakland matchup. The Chiefs led 10-3 at halftime and held a 31-6 advantage with less than two minutes remaining. After a missed field goal by the Chiefs, Oakland added a meaningless touchdown in the final minute to burn Under bettors (41.5).
Week #16 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#107 MINNESOTA @ #108 MIAMI - 1:00 PM
The Vikings’ 16-14 loss as an eight-point road underdog in Detroit on Sunday was the fourth straight game Minnesota has covered. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have failed to cover in three straight after a 41-13 setback in New England. Miami had playoff aspirations this season, but they are now on the outside looking in. This game is likely to end up on the low-scoring side, as both of these teams are excellent against the pass. Minnesota gives up just 216.0 yards per game through the air and they’re up against a Miami team that allows even less at 209.2. Shariff Floyd (knee) and Anthony Barr (knee) are questionable for the Vikings.
KEY STATS
•MINNESOTA is 8-2 UNDER as an underdog this season.
•MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS vs. teams allowing >= 24 yards per kickoff return over the L3 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS vs. teams allowing >= 24 yards per kickoff return in 2nd half of season over L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 23-8 UNDER after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 11-1 UNDER at home in the second half of the season over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 34-11 UNDER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per punt return in 2nd half of season since 1992.
#109 GREEN BAY @ #110 TAMPA BAY - 1:00 PM
The Packers come into this game after a disappointing 21-13 loss to Buffalo as 3.5-point road favorites. After throwing for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in his previous five games, Aaron Rodgers went 17-of-42 for 185 yards with two picks while Randall Cobb had seven receptions for 96 yards. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Packers, but they’ll now get to right the ship with a matchup against a Buccaneers team that lost its fourth straight in a 19-17 defeat in Carolina last weekend. The Bucs have dominated the Packers in Tampa Bay, winning-and-covering in two straight. They’ve also won seven of the last eight games straight-up while covering in six of those contests.
KEY STATS
•GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in games played on a grass field this season.
•GREEN BAY is 40-20 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.
•GREEN BAY is 55-27 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
•TAMPA BAY is 208-163 UNDER in all lined games since 1992.
•TAMPA BAY is 9-1 OVER at home against teams who commit 1 or less TOs/game on season since 1992.
•TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375+ YPG in second half of season since 1992.
#111 DETROIT @ #112 CHICAGO - 1:00 PM
The Lions won their third straight game straight-up in a 16-14 victory over the Vikings and they’ll now get to take on the Bears, who will be playing tired after a Monday night game against the Saints last week. These teams met on Thanksgiving Day, when Matt Stafford threw for 390 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 34-17 win in Detroit. The Lions have won and covered in three straight meetings between these teams, but the Bears have won five of the last six games played in Chicago in this head-to-head series straight-up. Detroit’s top-ranked defense could cause some serious issues for the turnover-prone Jay Cutler.
KEY STATS
•DETROIT is 11-31 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
•DETROIT is 9-1 UNDER away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
•DETROIT is 0-9 ATS away vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260+ passing yards/game since 1992.
•CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, 32+ possession minutes/game over L3 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24+ yards per return over L2 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 11-2 ATS at home revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992.
#113 ATLANTA @ #114 NEW ORLEANS - 1:00 PM
The Falcons lost 27-20 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and they’ll now face the Saints in a must-win game. This matchup has major NFC South playoff implications, with both teams still in the hunt to win the division. In Week #1, the Falcons beat the Saints 37-34 in an overtime game in Atlanta behind 448 yards and three touchdowns from Matt Ryan. The Saints have, however, been dominant at home in this head to head series over the years. New Orleans has won-and-covered in three straight when hosting the Falcons and they’ve won eight of the last 10 straight-up. Atlanta WR Julio Jones (hip) is questionable.
KEY STATS
•ATLANTA is 3-21 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the L2 seasons.
•NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.
•NEW ORLEANS is 23-43 ATS at home when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 52-31 OVER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235+ pass yards/game since 1992.
#115 NEW ENGLAND @ #116 NY JETS - 1:00 PM
The Patriots won-and-covered in their second straight game in a 41-13 beatdown over the Miami Dolphins in New England last week. The Jets did, however, win-and-cover in a 16-11 victory in Tennessee. Earlier in the season, the Patriots beat the Jets 27-25 as 9.5-point favorites in New England. The Patriots have won six of the last seven games between these teams straight-up, but the Jets are 4-3 ATS in those contests. New York is also 3-2 straight-up and versus the spread when hosting the Patriots dating back to 2009. The play of Geno Smith will be the key in determining the outcome of this game, as his turnovers could potentially doom the Jets.
KEY STATS
•NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS off a division game over the L3 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the L2 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65+ yards/play over L2 seasons.
•NY JETS are 70-97 ATS after playing their last game on the road since 1992.
•NY JETS are 44-76 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road since 1992.
•REX RYAN is 19-8 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. as coach of NY JETS.
#117 KANSAS CITY @ #118 PITTSBURGH - 1:00 PM
The Chiefs got revenge on the Raiders last week with a 31-13 win as 11-point home favorites. The Steelers, meanwhile, won-and-covered in their second straight game with a 27-20 victory in Atlanta. The Chiefs have covered in three straight games against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh has won the last two straight-up. At home, Pittsburgh has four straight straight-up victories against Kansas City, covering in three of those games. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s second-ranked passing offense could have trouble against a tough Chiefs secondary, but Le’Veon Bell has a favorable matchup against their 28th-ranked rushing defense.
KEY STATS
•KANSAS CITY is 14-27 ATS away off a win against a division rival since 1992.
•KANSAS CITY is 11-23 ATS away after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
•KANSAS CITY is 26-13 ATS away vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24+ points/game since 1992.
•PITTSBURGH is 6-0 OVER in home lined games this season.
•PITTSBURGH is 7-0 OVER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per punt return over the L2 seasons.
•PITTSBURGH is 19-5 ATS at home after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
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#119 CLEVELAND @ #120 CAROLINA - 1:00 PM
Johnny Manziel had a brutal game in his debut as the Browns starter, throwing for just 80 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 30-0 loss at home against the Bengals. He’ll look to turn things around against a Panthers team that has the 12th-ranked passing defense in the league. Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off of a 19-17 victory over the Buccaneers. The team is still in contention to win the NFC South after winning their last two games and they could get Cam Newton back for this contest after a back injury he suffered in a car accident last week. Joe Haden (shoulder) is questionable for Cleveland.
KEY STATS
•CLEVELAND is 9-2 UNDER after the first month of the season this season.
•CLEVELAND is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
•CLEVELAND is 23-9 UNDER away after allowing 150 or less pass yards in their last game since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 52-28 ATS in December games since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 77-42 UNDER off a division game since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 9-0 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the L3 seasons.
#121 BALTIMORE @ #122 HOUSTON - 1:00 PM
The Ravens beat the Jaguars 20-12 as 14-point home favorites to win their fourth game in their last five straight-up. The Texans, meanwhile, lost 17-10 at Lucas Oil Stadium to Indianapolis as seven-point underdogs. Houston is now 3-1-1 ATS over the last five weeks. The most recent meeting between these teams was a 30-9 home victory for the Ravens as 1.5-point favorites on September 22nd, 2013. Since entering the league, the Texans are just 1-3 straight-up and versus the spread when hosting the Ravens but they did win the most recent matchup 43-13 on October 21, 2012. Quarterback Case Keenum will likely be forced into action in this one.
KEY STATS
•BALTIMORE is 25-8 UNDER against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 40-23 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS away after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 35-20 UNDER in December games since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
•HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS at home versus teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L2 seasons.
#123 NY GIANTS @ #124 ST LOUIS - 4:05 PM
The Giants won their second straight with a 24-13 victory over the Redskins. St. Louis, meanwhile, lost 12-6 at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Their offense put up just 280 total yards and was just 4-of-15 on third down conversions in the loss. Since 1992, these two teams have split wins straight-up but the Rams are 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 versus the spread when hosting the Giants in that time. Both teams are heading into this match-up after two consecutive Unders. St. Louis’ defense has allowed just 12 points total over the last three encounters and will now try to deal with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who caught three touchdown passes on Sunday.
KEY STATS
•NY GIANTS are 11-3 OVER off a division game over the L3 seasons.
•NY GIANTS are 28-14 OVER away off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 33-13 ATS away after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
•ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992.
•ST LOUIS is 10-1 OVER after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games since 1992.
•ST LOUIS is 18-38 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
#125 BUFFALO @ #126 OAKLAND - 4:25 PM
The Bills are coming off of a huge 21-13 victory over the Packers in Buffalo and they’ve now won three of their last four straight-up and four straight against the spread. They’ll be playing to improve their chances of making the postseason when they face a miserable Raiders team, which lost 31-13 in Kansas City last week. The Raiders have, however, dominated this head-to-head series. They are 6-4 straight-up against the Bills since 1992 and they’ve covered the number in eight of those games. The Raiders have also won three straight games straight-up when hosting the Bills. RB C.J. Spiller (collarbone) is eligible to return from I.R. in this game, but is listed as questionable.
KEY STATS
•BUFFALO is 52-32 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
•BUFFALO is 9-2 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
•BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return this season.
•OAKLAND is 28-53 ATS in December games since 1992.
•OAKLAND is 7-0 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival over the L3 seasons.
•OAKLAND is 10-33 ATS vs. teams allowing <=7.5 yards per punt return in 2nd half of season since 1992.
#127 INDIANAPOLIS @ #128 DALLAS - 4:25 PM
The Colts won their fourth straight straight-up in a 17-10 win at home over the Texans. The Cowboys, meanwhile, picked up a statement victory with a 38-27 win as three-point road underdogs against the Eagles. DeMarco Murray (hand) is questionable for this game after undergoing hand surgery earlier in the week and that will be a major hit, as the Cowboys have the league’s third-best rushing attack. Now Dallas’ defense will need to find a way to hold QB Andrew Luck in check, but they’re allowing 249.6 passing yards per game and Luck is throwing for 301.9 himself. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (groin) is questionable for the Colts.
KEY STATS
•INDIANAPOLIS is 25-10 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 34-13 OVER away when playing a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the L3 seasons.
•DALLAS is 12-3 OVER vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the L2 seasons.
•DALLAS is 12-29 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.
•DALLAS is 24-7 OVER home vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61%+ in 2nd half of season since 1992.
#129 SEATTLE @ #130 ARIZONA - 8:30 PM
The Seahawks beat the 49ers 17-7 as 9.5-point home favorites for their fourth straight win-and-cover last week. The Cardinals won-and-covered in their second straight with a 12-6 victory as six-point road ‘dogs in St. Louis. These teams met in Seattle four weeks ago and the Seahawks won 19-3 as seven-point favorites. They are now 3-2 straight-up and versus the spread against the Cardinals over the last three seasons, but Arizona has won and covered in two consecutive home games against Seattle. QB Ryan Lindley will start for the Cardinals in this game, which is bad news for Arizona as they’re up against the top-ranked defense in football.
KEY STATS
•SEATTLE is 7-0 UNDER in December games over the L2 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 12-2 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
•SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS away off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons.
•ARIZONA is 16-6 ATS against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
•ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better this season.
•ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the L2 seasons.
Monday, 12/22/2014
#131 DENVER @ #132 CINCINNATI - 8:30 PM
The Broncos went into San Diego and won 22-10 for their fourth consecutive straight-up triumph. The Bengals blew out the Browns 30-0 in Cleveland to pick up their fourth straight-up victory in their last five games. The last meeting between these two teams was on November 4th, 2012, when the Broncos won 31-23 as five-point favorites in Cincinnati. The Broncos have won-and-covered in three of their last four trips to Cincinnati dating back to 2003. This matchup will feature a Bengals offense that has the 6th-ranked rushing attack in football going against a Broncos team that is 2nd in the league in rushing defense.
KEY STATS
•DENVER is 21-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 14-4 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 49-21 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
•MARVIN LEWIS is 20-6 UNDER after a win by 14 or more points.
•CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS off a division game over the L2 seasons.
•CINCINNATI is 22-10 OVER off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992.
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