~J.J. Bascus Power Rating Week 16: December 18-22, 2014 Analysis & Picks And Our Group Bets~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

J.J. Bascus Power Rating Week 16: December 18-22, 2014.

~ BEST~BET J.J.BASCUS RATING	Date	Time [EST]	J.J. BASCUS	J.J.BASCUS POWER LINE \\\\\\\	Game	VEGAS PREDICTING TEAM WIN	VEGAS OPENING LINE	$ MONEY $ LINE [Pick By J.J. Bascus]	%ECCO}}}/%
X NO ACTION	Th 12/18	825pm	X	X	TEN at JAC	JAC	-3	X	X
3	Sa 12/20	430pm	PHI	-3	PHI at WAS	PHI	-7.1/2	PHI -$350	PHI 29.7 WAS 18.4 Power Rank PHI 10 WAS 27
11	Sa 12/20	825pm	SF	-1 1/2	SD at SF	SF	-1 1/2		SD 21.6 SF 17.9 Power Rank SD 15 SF 7
5	Su 12/21	1pm	BAL	-1 1/2	BAL at HOU	BAL	-5.1/2		BAL 26.9 HOU 23.1 Power Rank BAL 5 HOU 17
10	Su 12/21	1pm	GB	-5	GB at TB	GB	-10 1/2		GB 31.1 TB 18.1 Power Rank GB 9 TB 29
X NO ACTION	Su 12/21	1pm	X	X	KC at PIT	PIT	-3	TO CLOSE TO CALL X NO ACTION	KC 23.0 PIT 27.8 Power Rank KC 8 PIT 18
2	Su 12/21	1pm	CAR	-4	CLE at CAR	CAR	-3 1/2	CAR - $175	CLE 19.7 CAR 20.6 Power Rank CLE 28 CAR 21
9	Su 12/21	1pm	DET	-1	DET at CHI	DET	-7	DET -$400	DET 20.1 CHI 21.1 Power Rank DET 6 CHI 26
4	Su 12/21	1pm	MIN	-1	MIN at MIA	MIA	-6 1/2		MIN 19.8 MIA 23.4 Power Rank MIA 19 MIN 22
5	Su 12/21	1pm	NO	-4 1/2	ATL at NO	NO	-5 1/2		ATL 24.9 NO 26.0 Power Rank ATL 25 NO 23
1	Su 12/21	1pm	NE	-5 1/2	NE at NYJ	NE	-10 1/2	NE -$650	NE 31.6 NYJ 16.4 Power Rank NE 3 NYJ 20
X NO ACTION	Su 12/21	405pm	X	X	NYG at STL	STL	-5	X	NYG 22.6 STL20.8 Power Rank NYG 24 STL 16 X NO ACTION
X NO ACTION	Su 12/21	425pm	X	X	IND at DAL	DAL	-2 1/2	X NO ACTION	IND 30.3 DAL 27.2 Power Rank IND 12 DAL13
6	Su 12/21	425pm	BUF	-3	BUF at OAK	BUF	-5 1/2		BUF 21.6 OAK 15.2 Power Rank BUF 11 OAK 30
7	Su 12/21	830pm	SEA	-1	SEA at ARI	SEA	-8		SEA 24.2 ARI 20.5 Power Rank SEA 1 ARI 4
8	Mo 12/22	830pm	DEN	-1	DEN at CIN	DEN	-3		DEN 29.1 CIN 22.2 Power Rank DEN 2 CIN 14

Best Bet J.J. Bascus Rating Ranks the spreads from high to low A 1 means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J.Bascus predicts to win the game.
J.J.Bascus Power Line = forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game by.
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
Vegas.Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by).
ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread & power rank lower number better the rating
*Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many point
$ Money Line Bet $ J.J.Bascus picks will win the game

This power rating is not ''computerized generated'' by J.J. analysis. These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.

J.J.BASCUS NOTES
Closest Projected Game: Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans Under 41 1/2

Best Chance (team to win by the most points): CAR -3 1/2 CLE at CAR Most Vegas lines are off for this one. Carolina- 3 1/2 [ Either Quarterback]

TEN at JAC JAC -3 43.8 2 worst in NFL for Thursday night ~NO ACTION

This one lines up as all NE. The game may end up being closer than expected though Vegas right to expect Brady
to take no chances. NE Money line -$650

Packers due for a big game after a couple tough weeks Last time Rodgers was in Florida (week 6) he escaped
with a final drive 27-24 victory over MIA

Technically, the Dolphins are still alive in the playoffs. Vikings as we have been saying will ride up and down with rookie QB so
hard to say, safe is going big on MIA.

Saints maybe coming together, need to avenge their week 1 OT loss at Atlanta to work toward solidifying
their tentative hold on the NFC South.

Most Vegas lines are off for this one. Another chance for Manziel, defenses obviously get excited about stopping him. Cam Newton questionable but might play. Even with Anderson - 3 1/3 lots value in this game. Money line is shoe in at CAR -$175 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both eliminated from playoffs though the Rams have been looking alright of late and will likely play with more
enthusiasm preparing for a better 2015. No Action Bet

J.J. Bascus and Vegas in line. Big Ben has been doing amazing work positioning PIT for a seat in the playoffs.
Watch this one though? with a No Action Bet !!!

Vegas all over the Eagles and no reason to expect otherwise. Griffin heads back in at QB

Bills working to keep slim playoff hopes alive. This week is a test they should be able to pass.
a good thing this time around?

The two worst offenses… the two worst teams period in the NFL collide in Jacksonville for... a primetime
showdown? NO ACTION [save your money]

Saturday night football. The Chargers head north to take on team turmoil. Would avoid as SD should do
everything they can to win this

The Lions are defensively capable of shutting down CHI and their offense should find an opportunity here to
show its full potential. A good money line bet Lions -$400

Look out Broncos. Statistically Peyton should be up to the challenge, but the Bengals have a shot here at a
primetime statement

Here is a game. Sunday night. Two of the best in the NFL and Cardinals look to stop SEA 4 game win streak and
take control of NFC West. Too Close to call but great game to watch.

Watch DeMarco Murray status. Game comes down to two up-and-down QBs either and both capable of
brilliance. Good one to watch? But no bet on this one, There are easier games to bet.

Vegas jumping all over the Ravens. HOU a chance at home to stop a conference rival

SYSTEM SMITTY RYAN NOTES

BAL at HOU Under 411/2

Will Jones play for Atlanta Falcons? Over 55 1/2
Minnesota Vikings covered 4 spreads before Christmas[4-3 ATS -Road] Vikings+7[ Put a fork in Miami for the Wildcard, Buy a ticket for the game[ half empty stadium] The Vikings have been covering the spread in four straight games and seven of their last eight. Miami having the worst home-field advantage in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over Inflated Point Spread at +11 1/2 Not running to window play this game but the Over maybe the ticket 481/2
Dallas at home with shoot-out with the Colts Over 55 1/2
Eagles Money Line Bet -$350
Will Cam Newton play? if plays will be 100%? -3 Derek Anderson if he plays -3 across the board

$ J.J. BASCUS'S PLAYERS $

J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.] CAR -3 //// CAR -$175

System Smitty Ryan [Las Vegas NV .] Vikings+7 // PHI -$350

Benny Rosenthal [Brooklyn Heights N.Y.]Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 48 1/2

HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V.] MIN +7 // PHI -$350

Bee Bee Black widow [Henderson N.V.] 7 POINT TEASER New England -3 1/2 under 54 1/2

Sammy Sea Way [Boston Mass.]Car-$175 & Saints - 6

Guest Handicapper Visiting J.J. In Reno ~Bobby Lancer~ [St.Paul Minn].7 POINT TEASER Baltimore Ravens+2 Under 48 1/2

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK RX FRIENDS & GUESTS AND MEMBERS FROM OUR GROUP

Hårr¥THëHÄT

indiana · Dec 19, 2014

Mr./H.hat...........lov the play..........continued success this week end..........indy

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

indiana said:
Mr./H.hat...........lov the play..........continued success this week end..........indy

Thanks Indy and very good luck to you this week my friend

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

I surround myself with as a professional gambler of NFL. I consider them family all through the NFL season. Very close communications with the old school and the new school. Sometimes as professional NFL gamblers and that's all us. we do not agree on certain games we bet on and this is why? My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/or outcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term I use J.J. Bascus power point rating[ is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record]. This is one of reasons I will bet against his predictions that money line and point spread change around game time, also the biggest factors for Smitty, Benny, Bee Bee and myself watching very carefully is follow the $money$ with wiseguys and sharpies when they make their move? Looking at all different perspectives to win our bets why I choose sometimes going against J.J. predictions on the lines, not so much the stats. However besides our different betting styles and handicapping games. We all do have a lot things in common in our relationship, we all use as a tool in handicapping games J.J. Bascus Power Rating and look at his picks.I post his ratings so you can use it as a tool in your personal handicapping games if so wish. All 6 of us have a common goal as professional gamblers and handicappers that we will all be 70% or better in NFL season entering the Superbowl. To bet against us with our rating win percentage, all I can say is Good Luck, Hope you do it?..... Betting with US?? [J.J. Bascus, Back Room Benny The Jew, System Smitty Ryan, Bee Bee Black Widow ,Sammy Sea Way and my self HarryTheHat],.... As they say at the poker tables downtown Vegas, It's your call partner ???
RespectivelyHårr¥THëHÄT

PS. I would like to say this to all those persons, who call themselves members that replied on my previous post to my personal friends& guests on RX sports forum about J.J. Bascus updated power rating. That have to belittle & use bad language to my friends & guests expressing their point of view reading my post, with replies and also other members that post on this forum. To all these so called members that are now on my ignore list. I would like to say to them coming from a old school gentlemen gambler and handicapper to put this under their hats."There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude."

texansfan · Dec 19, 2014

Good luck this week Harry, let's win some money.

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

From Vegas Insider News Media> The Bears announced Thursday that they will start Jimmy Clausen against the Detroit Lions on Sunday instead of the man who signed a massive, seven-year deal at the end of last season. Coach Marc Trestman said Cutler will be available as the backup at Soldier Field. Who is Jimmy Clausen ? From the Vegas Sporting News> Clausen started 10 games for the Panthers in 2010 for a team that finished 2-14 on the year. He completed just 52.5 percent of his passes for 1,558 yards with three touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also fumbled nine times, losing two. The Panthers went 1-9 with Clausen as their starting quarterback. Clausen had not played in the previous three seasons before getting signed by the Bears this offseason. He’s appeared in three games in limited duty this season for Chicago, completing 3 of 9 passes for 42 yards. Line hasn't moved from -8 1/2 or -9 Detroit. Chicago could be jumping from frying pan into fire on this move against Detroit? any thoughts on this game if you bet it?

Hårr¥THëHÄT

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

texansfan said:
Good luck this week Harry, let's win some money.

Thanks texansfan Good luck this weekend on your picks & bets my friend.

Grindstone30 · Dec 19, 2014

Good luck MrH always a pleasure to read your post. Thanks for all the tools you give us to make our final decisions. Mr H I have Cincy +3 to finish off a 3 team parlay should I hedge? What are your thoughts for the MNF game?

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

Grindstone30 said:
Good luck MrH always a pleasure to read your post. Thanks for all the tools you give us to make our final decisions. Mr H I have Cincy +3 to finish off a 3 team parlay should I hedge? What are your thoughts for the MNF game?

Well that's a tough call Grindstone 30 at +3. Our group stayed away from this game. Manning initially tweaked his thigh also his arm during the first half of last Sunday's over the Chargers. I don't believe he is 100% but will play. Bengals need to win with a 9-4 record with Steelers at 9-5 also Ravens at 9-5 in the NFC North shoot-out. Bengals have to play the Steelers in week #17 on the road. You are looking at two great defenses from J.J. on stat's that you picked with this game my friend. Smitty thinks this game will under 47 1/2 because you will see them running ball & time of possession as a huge factor in this match-up. Denver will be running ball big time to take pressure off of Manning. J.J. has this game with his ECCO% DEN 29.1 to CIN AT 22.2 a 6.9 points in favor of DEN. With a power rating at DEN-2 TO CIN 14. Grindstone 30 CIN -3 is too low of a margin to hedge this game. Money line Price at Denver right now is -$172 to Cincinnati +$158. Does not really reflect the point spread in this match-up with System Smitty Ryan's analysis. Gee-wiz buddy, why? didn't you pick a easier game for 3 team parlay. This my friend is a tough call? also very tough game to handicap with stats coming from Smitty, who is our group analyst. Grindstone 30 I do not bet parlays just presses but that's me. I wish you best of luck in this game win my friend and you always have my support as a friend always.

PS. Benny and Bee Bee and myself will check out that super hamburger Joint you recommend to us next week and also want to thank you for info. Do they serve Cocktails also? just kidding my friend !!!!

Grindstone30 · Dec 19, 2014

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
Well that's a tough call Grindstone 30 at +3. Our group stayed away from this game. Manning initially tweaked his thigh also his arm during the first half of last Sunday's over the Chargers. I don't believe he is 100% but will play. Bengals need to win with a 9-4 record with Steelers at 9-5 also Ravens at 9-5 in the NFC North shoot-out. Bengals have to play the Steelers in week #17 on the road. You are looking at two great defenses from J.J. on stat's that you picked with this game my friend. Smitty thinks this game will under 47 1/2 because you will see them running ball & time of possession as a huge factor in this match-up. Denver will be running ball big time to take pressure off of Manning. J.J. has this game with his ECCO% DEN 29.1 to CIN AT 22.2 a 6.9 points in favor of DEN. With a power rating at DEN-2 TO CIN 14. Grindstone 30 CIN -3 is too low of a margin to hedge this game. Money line Price at Denver right now is -$172 to Cincinnati +$158. Does not really reflect the point spread in this match-up with System Smitty Ryan's analysis. Gee-wiz buddy, why? didn't you pick a easier game for 3 team parlay. This my friend is a tough call? also very tough game to handicap with stats coming from Smitty, who is our group analyst. Grindstone 30 I do not bet parlays just presses but that's me. I wish you best of luck in this game win my friend and you always have my support as a friend always.
PS. Benny and Bee Bee and myself will check out that super hamburger Joint you recommend to us next week and also want to thank you for info. Do they serve Cocktails also? just kidding my friend !!!!

Thanks alot buddy, I just like how Cincy has been playing the last couple of weeks and hopefully they'll keep Manning off the field. Gonna give it a thought but might protect some profit here. Please let me know what you think of Bachi Burger once you go. Enjoy buddy love the Minny pick

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 19, 2014

Correction +3 CIN a typing error at the end of the reply[Sorry] Grindstone

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 20, 2014

Grindstone30 said:
Thanks alot buddy, I just like how Cincy has been playing the last couple of weeks and hopefully they'll keep Manning off the field. Gonna give it a thought but might protect some profit here. Please let me know what you think of Bachi Burger once you go. Enjoy buddy love the Minny pick

~Grindstone~ I hope this theory helps you evaluate your picks to bet, when you are handicapping games. One of best Theory's is the ''Up-Down Theory Grindstone ''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market[ Point spreads & Money lines] usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous [is data that doesn't fit with the rest of analysis] “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation. System Smitty Ryan our group analyst and J.J. Bascus right-hand man who helps him with analytical point view with his power rating. Smitty Ryan cautions our group not to bet these games Grindstone. Good luck on your 3 team parlay my friend and rest of NFL season.Hårr¥THëHÄT

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 20, 2014

I will post this reply to a private message I received from a member friend here on RX. This Certain young lady wants to stay anonymous for whatever reason. The member wanted my opinion on the big game this week "Cardinals Host the Seahawks". I will post my reply so you can all read it if you wish? If you are betting this game? I also posted this reply to the computer group on their thread also.

ARZ-QB-Ryan Lindley-Probable | ARZ-QB-Drew Stanton-OUT | ARZ-QB-Carson Palmer-OUT[ Who will be the next quarterback?. At -7 1/2 to -8[ Vegas], I personally think this point spread is over inflated should be around 6 or 6 1/2. 36 1/2 on the over[ lowest I ever seen on totals here] tells me lots of defense in this game. However ARZ ranks 24Th in offense. I just don't see how ARZ will score against Seattle unless there is a lot loose fumbles and pass interceptions with the hawks. If I was to bet this game, which I am not!! I really don't bet teasers, parlays but only bet straight bets & money lines with a press after a win... I would bet under 36 1/2 [Vegas]. I see this game like 19-3 or something like that? Better yet a 7 point teaser -1 Seattle and 43 1/2 on the under.

TyBounce · Dec 20, 2014

MR.HARRYtheHAT , thanks for all the info , and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you , and JJ , and Sammy Sea Way and all the group.

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Dec 20, 2014

Ty Bounce said:
MR.HARRYtheHAT , thanks for all the info , and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you , and JJ , and Sammy Sea Way and all the group.

Thank you Ty and wish you also a safe Merry Christmas and Happy New Year my friend !!!!

3pointdog · Dec 20, 2014

Happy holidays my old school friend. Good luck.

919 · Dec 20, 2014

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
I surround myself with as a professional gambler of NFL. I consider them family all through the NFL season. Very close communications with the old school and the new school. Sometimes as professional NFL gamblers and that's all us. we do not agree on certain games we bet on and this is why? My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/or outcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term I use J.J. Bascus power point rating[ is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record]. This is one of reasons I will bet against his predictions that money line and point spread change around game time, also the biggest factors for Smitty, Benny, Bee Bee and myself watching very carefully is follow the $money$ with wiseguys and sharpies when they make their move? Looking at all different perspectives to win our bets why I choose sometimes going against J.J. predictions on the lines, not so much the stats. However besides our different betting styles and handicapping games. We all do have a lot things in common in our relationship, we all use as a tool in handicapping games J.J. Bascus Power Rating and look at his picks.I post his ratings so you can use it as a tool in your personal handicapping games if so wish. All 6 of us have a common goal as professional gamblers and handicappers that we will all be 70% or better in NFL season entering the Superbowl. To bet against us with our rating win percentage, all I can say is Good Luck, Hope you do it?..... Betting with US?? [J.J. Bascus, Back Room Benny The Jew, System Smitty Ryan, Bee Bee Black Widow ,Sammy Sea Way and my self HarryTheHat],.... As they say at the poker tables downtown Vegas, It's your call partner ???
RespectivelyHårr¥THëHÄT

PS. I would like to say this to all those persons, who call themselves members that replied on my previous post to my personal friends& guests on RX sports forum about J.J. Bascus updated power rating. That have to belittle & use bad language to my friends & guests expressing their point of view reading my post, with replies and also other members that post on this forum. To all these so called members that are now on my ignore list. I would like to say to them coming from a old school gentlemen gambler and handicapper to put this under their hats."There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude."

You won't see many "professional gamblers" playing -350 and -400 ML favs

stander · Dec 20, 2014

GL Hat Squad! Thanks for the posts this year. Lots of great info.

mason456 · Dec 20, 2014

Harry i love reading your post, i you know a lot more about gambling then i ever will, but laying money lines minus 400-600 is tough
you lose one or two hard to get ahead again

Unabated · Dec 20, 2014

Press it!

~J.J. Bascus Power Rating Week 16: December 18-22, 2014 Analysis & Picks And Our Group Bets~

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