I read A lot of Articles and some are worth keeping...the Plan is to show the Ones that can help your capping
HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?
Submitted by
ron on Wed, 2010-01-06 02:00
"COACH'S CORNER"
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER!
HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?
I've been Coach of the Year in the AFC two times. Once with the Indianapolis Colts. Once with the New England Patriots (both of whom are in the playoffs again this year). I've studied playoff football for as long as I can remember. In my view, coaching matters more in THIS round from the handicapping perspective than at any other time in the playoffs.
Why is that?
You generally have very evenly matched teams playing in the Wildcard round. The best Wildcard teams are often BETTER than the divisional champions they're facing on the road. You see that perception in Las Vegas this week. Home field advantage is worth three points:
- Arizona is laying less than three to Green Bay, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard Green Bay is better than NFC West champion Arizona.
- Cincinnati is laying less than three to the NY Jets, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard New York is better than AFC North champion Cincinnati.
- New England is laying exactly three points to Baltimore, meaning those teams are considered even.
- Dallas opened at -1½ vs. Philadelphia, meaning that oddsmakers thought the market perceived Philadelphia as better...though early money pounded Dallas all the way up to -4.
Needless to say, if nobody's more than a four point favorite in games played on their home fields, then the teams are seen as even!
Coaches are often a "tie breaker" in close games. Sometimes it's for the better, as good coaches find a way to win. Sometimes it's for the worse, as coaches who are inexperienced in playoff action, or who rely too much on their team's talent make mistakes that cause their team to lose.
I'm not going to get too specific in what I think about the eight coaches on the sidelines this week. My analysis will play a big role, probably the BIGGEST role in determining my selections for clients. I can't give that information away for free! I can tell you the general things I look at when evaluating NFL coaches in January.
- Have they been there before? Experience helps a lot when it comes to coaching in the playoffs. You have to make some mistakes before you get it right. Veterans generally know what mistakes to avoid. How many of this week's head coaches, as well as the four bye teams, have been in this position before? Be very careful asking new coaches to thrive. Don't be shocked when veterans do.
- Have they won before? Some coaches just hit a wall when it comes to the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer was like that. His approach worked great during the regular season. He just didn't have an extra gear in the playoffs. In fact, he's often go BACK a gear and play so conservatively that it kept opponents in the game. Look up each guy's career playoff record. Ideally, you should know their ATS records too. Guys who are poor against Vegas expectations should be avoided, particularly as favorites.
- Do they have a reputation for aggression, or a reputation for conservatism? Aggression wins playoff games. Conservatism may help you pull one upset if you're an underdog catching some breaks, but generally keeps you from advancing more than one round. The last thing you want to do in the playoffs is lay points with a conservative coach.
- How has his team executed the fundamentals? Teams with poor turnover differentials can be in real trouble in the postseason because every mistake is so costly. Teams that get called for a lot of offensive penalties are in trouble because every yard matters so much in a short game that determines your fate. Some coaches are sticklers for execution. Others let their guys play and live with the mistakes. The sticklers are better bets, particularly when getting points from the more lenient coaches.
I don't want you to get the idea that nothing else matters besides coaching. A great coach can't make an inexperienced quarterback an immediate star. A bad coach may not do enough to derail his Hall of Fame bound quarterback. Ideally you want a mix of a great coach with a great team. Do we have that this year? It's tough to say because there are several serious Super Bowl contenders. I strongly believe that coaching quality will end up serving as the tie-breaker which determines who advances week by week, and who will lift the trophy over their heads a few weeks from now.
