[h=1]Betting value in wild-card games[/h][h=3]Playing underdogs of 5.5 points or more in games with low point totals[/h]
By David Solar | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDE
As we head into the NFL playoffs, we would like to thank our loyal readers for their support this year. Our system matches have produced a 27-22 record for plus-5.1 units, while our picks in the ESPN Ultimate Bowl Betting Guide have gone 6-2 ATS with four pending plays, making this another profitable season for contrarian betting.
The NFL playoffs begin Saturday and we already are inundated with questions regarding whether many of the trends we have discussed continue to be profitable during the postseason. After all, the playoffs are an entirely different beast, and bettors are forced to deal with a litany of new variables.
For starters, the number of bets on each game rises dramatically compared to the regular season, which should positively impact the value of betting against the public. By digging into our historical archive, we found that the average number of bets nearly doubles from the regular season to postseason, jumping from an average of 47,900 bets to roughly 91,800.
With more uneducated bettors pounding favorites and overs, we would expect to see even more artificially inflated lines offering value to sharp bettors. However, we do not see nearly the same type of lopsided public betting during the playoffs. Dating back to 2004, no playoff team has ever received less than 31 percent of spread bets (Jan. 4, 2004; Seattle plus-7 at Green Bay).
Though we have not observed the same type of lopsided public betting that we have during the regular season, the sheer volume of bets placed more than compensates for this. Using our Bet Labs software we found that teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 62-57 ATS with the record improving to 35-27 ATS when focusing solely on underdogs.
Two other historically profitable trends include large underdogs and underdogs in games with low totals. Here, we define large underdogs as 5.5 points or more and have filtered out the highest over/unders by removing any totals of over 50 points. The table below summarizes these results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]Playoff System[/h]ATS record of underdogs versus favorites in playoff matchups, since 2004
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It's no surprise that casual bettors love big games and marquee matchups, and every NFL playoff game fits those criteria. Every playoff game is given the big-game treatment from the national media and, as a result, sportsbooks see a large influx of money from square/recreational bettors who want to bet on the game because they will be watching -- not necessarily because they have an edge. These recreational bettors tend to take favorites more often than underdogs, which allow oddsmakers to shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. With so much parity in the NFL, sharp bettors will gladly take the underdogs at an artificially inflated number.
[h=3]Other playoff factors to consider[/h]
The adage "defense wins championships" may be more repetitive than a trained parrot, but it's a cliché for a reason. Since 2004, teams that allow less than 18 points per game have gone 34-20 ATS. Only two playoff teams fit these criteria (Seattle 15.9 PPG, Detroit 17.6 PPG), though the Seahawks have earned a first-round bye.
Also worth noting is betting teams to win straight up (a wager for a straight-up win) can be a highly profitable strategy during the NFL playoffs largely because of the parity of the teams. Taking every underdog on the moneyline would have resulted in a losing record (46-74) but a profit of plus-23.3 units. Underdogs of at least seven points have been particularly lucrative with an 11-14 record and plus-23.7 units earned (97.3 percent ROI).
Detroit Lions (plus-7) at Dallas Cowboys
Earlier this week the Lions were slated to play without Ndamukong Suh after the star defensive tackle stepped on the leg of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during Detroit's 30-20 loss to Green Bay (on Tuesday the suspension was rescinded). Perhaps that explains why bettors have avoided the Lions like the plague. At the time of publication, Detroit was receiving just 20 percent of spread bets -- the lowest percentage in our database.
Considering Tony Romo's struggles in big games and Detroit's stout defense, we'll gladly grab the Lions getting a touchdown in this game.
Arizona Cardinals (plus-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Despite finishing the season with a losing record, the NFC South champion Panthers (7-8-1) will host the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) in their divisional matchup. Given the struggles of third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, it's none too surprising that Arizona opened as a 4-point road 'dog at Pinnacle. Since then, the Panthers have received 60 percent of spread bets, which has inflated the line to Carolina minus-5.5. The Panthers are known for their tendency to run the ball and games featuring run-heavy teams tend to lead to fewer possessions and closer games.
Also, with a total of just 38, oddsmakers are clearly expecting a low-scoring game. Games with low totals have disproportionately benefited the underdog, so we are happy to grab the Cardinals as 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup.
By David Solar | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDE
As we head into the NFL playoffs, we would like to thank our loyal readers for their support this year. Our system matches have produced a 27-22 record for plus-5.1 units, while our picks in the ESPN Ultimate Bowl Betting Guide have gone 6-2 ATS with four pending plays, making this another profitable season for contrarian betting.
The NFL playoffs begin Saturday and we already are inundated with questions regarding whether many of the trends we have discussed continue to be profitable during the postseason. After all, the playoffs are an entirely different beast, and bettors are forced to deal with a litany of new variables.
For starters, the number of bets on each game rises dramatically compared to the regular season, which should positively impact the value of betting against the public. By digging into our historical archive, we found that the average number of bets nearly doubles from the regular season to postseason, jumping from an average of 47,900 bets to roughly 91,800.
With more uneducated bettors pounding favorites and overs, we would expect to see even more artificially inflated lines offering value to sharp bettors. However, we do not see nearly the same type of lopsided public betting during the playoffs. Dating back to 2004, no playoff team has ever received less than 31 percent of spread bets (Jan. 4, 2004; Seattle plus-7 at Green Bay).
Though we have not observed the same type of lopsided public betting that we have during the regular season, the sheer volume of bets placed more than compensates for this. Using our Bet Labs software we found that teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 62-57 ATS with the record improving to 35-27 ATS when focusing solely on underdogs.
Two other historically profitable trends include large underdogs and underdogs in games with low totals. Here, we define large underdogs as 5.5 points or more and have filtered out the highest over/unders by removing any totals of over 50 points. The table below summarizes these results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]Playoff System[/h]ATS record of underdogs versus favorites in playoff matchups, since 2004
| Underdogs | ATS record | Units won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. ** Units won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,170 ($100 x 11.70 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. | |||
| All | 65-53 (55.1%) | +9.37 units | +7.9% |
| Contrarian 'dogs | 35-27 (56.5%) | +6.52 units | +10.5% |
| Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts | 22-11 (66.7%) | +9.49 units | +28.8% |
| Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts, total <50 | 20-7 (74.1%) | +11.65 units | +43.1% |
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[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]It's no surprise that casual bettors love big games and marquee matchups, and every NFL playoff game fits those criteria. Every playoff game is given the big-game treatment from the national media and, as a result, sportsbooks see a large influx of money from square/recreational bettors who want to bet on the game because they will be watching -- not necessarily because they have an edge. These recreational bettors tend to take favorites more often than underdogs, which allow oddsmakers to shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. With so much parity in the NFL, sharp bettors will gladly take the underdogs at an artificially inflated number.
[h=3]Other playoff factors to consider[/h]
The adage "defense wins championships" may be more repetitive than a trained parrot, but it's a cliché for a reason. Since 2004, teams that allow less than 18 points per game have gone 34-20 ATS. Only two playoff teams fit these criteria (Seattle 15.9 PPG, Detroit 17.6 PPG), though the Seahawks have earned a first-round bye.
Also worth noting is betting teams to win straight up (a wager for a straight-up win) can be a highly profitable strategy during the NFL playoffs largely because of the parity of the teams. Taking every underdog on the moneyline would have resulted in a losing record (46-74) but a profit of plus-23.3 units. Underdogs of at least seven points have been particularly lucrative with an 11-14 record and plus-23.7 units earned (97.3 percent ROI).
[h=3]Wild-card system matches[/h]Detroit Lions (plus-7) at Dallas Cowboys
Earlier this week the Lions were slated to play without Ndamukong Suh after the star defensive tackle stepped on the leg of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during Detroit's 30-20 loss to Green Bay (on Tuesday the suspension was rescinded). Perhaps that explains why bettors have avoided the Lions like the plague. At the time of publication, Detroit was receiving just 20 percent of spread bets -- the lowest percentage in our database.
Considering Tony Romo's struggles in big games and Detroit's stout defense, we'll gladly grab the Lions getting a touchdown in this game.
Arizona Cardinals (plus-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Despite finishing the season with a losing record, the NFC South champion Panthers (7-8-1) will host the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) in their divisional matchup. Given the struggles of third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, it's none too surprising that Arizona opened as a 4-point road 'dog at Pinnacle. Since then, the Panthers have received 60 percent of spread bets, which has inflated the line to Carolina minus-5.5. The Panthers are known for their tendency to run the ball and games featuring run-heavy teams tend to lead to fewer possessions and closer games.
Also, with a total of just 38, oddsmakers are clearly expecting a low-scoring game. Games with low totals have disproportionately benefited the underdog, so we are happy to grab the Cardinals as 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup.
