[h=1]Early divisional round line moves[/h][h=3]Where early money is going for the divisional round, plus wild-card takeaways[/h]
y Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
As Dallas was completing its rally to beat Detroit 24-20 Sunday to complete the NFL's wild-card round, I kept waiting for the Twitterverse to explode with the usual rants:
"The fix was in."
"Vegas got its way again."
"Vegas wanted the Cowboys to win."
We've heard those all before, but Sunday's reaction was different. Instead, the criticisms were aimed at the NFL and the officials and, unless I missed the complaints, no one was blaming Vegas.
That's always been a misconception, so it was refreshing to see that left out of the narrative for once (and hopefully a sign that the public has a better understanding of sports betting) as the calls kept going the Cowboys' way.
Besides, it wasn't like the sports books here benefited much from the Dallas win (except in increased handle moving forward, but it's not like people weren't going to bet the Lions' next games -- these are the playoffs, after all).
Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas said the SuperBook won the first three wild-card games over the weekend ("but nothing substantial," he added) and didn't face as much teaser and parlay liability as the last game of the weekend usually involves.
"We could have used the 'no call' to be a call," Kornegay said. He was referring, of course, to the pass interference call against Dallas linebacker Anthony Hitchens with 8½ minutes left in the game on a third-and-1 play and Detroit leading 20-17. It was looking like the Lions were going to be able to continue their drive for a game-clinching touchdown or at least a field goal to go up by 6, but referee Pete Morelli and his crew decided to pick up the flag and Detroit punted on fourth down. The Cowboys drove down to score the go-ahead touchdown, but still didn't cover after closing as a 6.5-point home favorite.
"The game turned out on the plus side," said John Avello of Wynn Las Vegas, "but it still would have been with the Lions winning. Dallas covering would have been the loser."
Home teams (all of which were favored) ended up winning three of the four wild-card games, but favorites/underdogs and home/away results were split 2-2 ATS thanks to the Cowboys' non-cover. Baltimore's 30-17 win at Pittsburgh was the only outright upset as the Ravens closed as 3-point road underdogs and plus-150 on the money line while Carolina and Indianapolis covered as 5.5- and 4-point home favorites, respectively.
In over/under wagering, the Panthers' 27-16 win over the Cardinals went over the total of 37.5 and the Ravens-Steelers pushed against the consensus closing total of 47 on Saturday, but then both of Sunday's games stayed under.
Wild-card betting recap:
Home: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Favorites: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Over/unders: 1-2-1
NFL regular-season betting stats:
Home: 148-103-1 SU, 121-126-5 ATS (3 London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 167-83-1 SU, 119-127-5 ATS (5 pick 'em)
Over/unders: 119-135-2
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have impacted the upcoming week's lines and where the lines will likely end up.
Early divisional round playoff moves
Here are the consensus lines for this upcoming weekend's divisional playoff games as of early Monday morning. We'll look at how we got to these numbers, including a look at where the offshore openers as well as Las Vegas books and lines moved in early betting. We'll look at them in the order that the lines were posted as the Baltimore-New England line opened Saturday night after the Ravens, the No. 6 seed, beat the Steelers and were locked in to face the No. 1-seeded Patriots. The Indianapolis-Denver line opened during the fourth quarter of the Colts' win over the Bengals, while the NFC lines had to wait until the end of the Detroit-Dallas game.
AFC
Ravens at Patriots (-7, -120), Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET: Offshore giant Pinnacle was the first book open and went with New England minus-7.5, plus-111 (which means there was heavy juice on the underdog). Within five minutes, the Westgate and William Hill books in Nevada also opened at 7.5. CRIS opened later at 7 and was bet to 7.5 fairly quickly, but by Sunday morning most of the books both here and offshore had been bet down to 7 with the lone exception being the MGM/Mirage, which held the line at 7.5 (but with minus-125 on Baltimore plus-7.5).
Westgate SuperBook divisional openers
(Home team on bottom; numbers in parentheses are where the line moved)
Ravens
Patriots -7.5 (-7)
Panthers
Seahawks -11 (-11.5)
Cowboys
Packers -6.5
Colts
Broncos -7.5 (-7)
During Sunday's wagering, books tinkered with the juice with the consensus coming in at Patriots minus-7, minus-120. The over/under opened 49 pretty much across the board but has come down slightly to a consensus 48.5 as of Monday morning.
Colts at Broncos (-7), Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET: This opened during the fourth quarter of Indianapolis' 26-10 rout of Cincinnati as Pinnacle jumped in with Denver minus-7 at 3:39 p.m. ET. Within two minutes, it was bet to 7.5. That's where the Westgate and William Hill books opened less than 10 minutes later. But it didn't stay there: After more books posted 7.5, it took less than half an hour for the line to get bet back down to 7. The over/under opened 52 at Pinny and 52.5 at Westgate, but bettors showed that they feel this will be a high-scoring affair as it was bet up to 54 during the day on Sunday.
NFC
Panthers at Seahawks (-11), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET: The NFC lines had to wait for the Detroit-Dallas game to be completed, but then books put up the sides and totals for both games and the early action was fast and furious. Pinnacle was again first at 7:48 p.m. ET with Seattle minus-10. The Wynn was the first to open in Vegas at Seattle minus-10.5 a minute later and by the time the Westgate opted for minus-11 another minute later, most books were heading in that direction -- and it didn't stop there. Within the next five minutes, the line went to 12 at Pinny and 12.5 at Westgate before finally reversing and settling in back at 11.5 (and then to 11).
As of Monday morning, that was the consensus line, though Pinny was down to 10.5. CRIS was at 11.5, as well as the stand-alone Vegas books at Treasure Island, Golden Nugget and Aliante. The over/under opened around 40.5 with some variance, but this number has been pretty solid across the board with the Wynn the only outlier at 40 as of early Monday morning.
Cowboys at Packers (-6.5), Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET: This game also saw a lot of early action. Pinnacle opened Green Bay minus-5.5 and then so did the Wynn and Station Casinos, but those were already being bet higher when the Westgate, BetOnline and Golden Nugget opened at minus-6.5 a minute or two later. The Wynn stopped at 6 and has held the line there. CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) opened at 6.5 but dropped to 6 later Sunday night and those two remained the only Vegas books not at 6.5 as of 5:30 a.m. PT Monday. The over/under opened at 52 at both Pinnacle and Westgate and that's been bet up to 53.
Now you're set for the divisional playoffs. Happy handicapping!
y Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
As Dallas was completing its rally to beat Detroit 24-20 Sunday to complete the NFL's wild-card round, I kept waiting for the Twitterverse to explode with the usual rants:
"The fix was in."
"Vegas got its way again."
"Vegas wanted the Cowboys to win."
We've heard those all before, but Sunday's reaction was different. Instead, the criticisms were aimed at the NFL and the officials and, unless I missed the complaints, no one was blaming Vegas.
That's always been a misconception, so it was refreshing to see that left out of the narrative for once (and hopefully a sign that the public has a better understanding of sports betting) as the calls kept going the Cowboys' way.
Besides, it wasn't like the sports books here benefited much from the Dallas win (except in increased handle moving forward, but it's not like people weren't going to bet the Lions' next games -- these are the playoffs, after all).
Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas said the SuperBook won the first three wild-card games over the weekend ("but nothing substantial," he added) and didn't face as much teaser and parlay liability as the last game of the weekend usually involves.
"We could have used the 'no call' to be a call," Kornegay said. He was referring, of course, to the pass interference call against Dallas linebacker Anthony Hitchens with 8½ minutes left in the game on a third-and-1 play and Detroit leading 20-17. It was looking like the Lions were going to be able to continue their drive for a game-clinching touchdown or at least a field goal to go up by 6, but referee Pete Morelli and his crew decided to pick up the flag and Detroit punted on fourth down. The Cowboys drove down to score the go-ahead touchdown, but still didn't cover after closing as a 6.5-point home favorite.
"The game turned out on the plus side," said John Avello of Wynn Las Vegas, "but it still would have been with the Lions winning. Dallas covering would have been the loser."
Home teams (all of which were favored) ended up winning three of the four wild-card games, but favorites/underdogs and home/away results were split 2-2 ATS thanks to the Cowboys' non-cover. Baltimore's 30-17 win at Pittsburgh was the only outright upset as the Ravens closed as 3-point road underdogs and plus-150 on the money line while Carolina and Indianapolis covered as 5.5- and 4-point home favorites, respectively.
In over/under wagering, the Panthers' 27-16 win over the Cardinals went over the total of 37.5 and the Ravens-Steelers pushed against the consensus closing total of 47 on Saturday, but then both of Sunday's games stayed under.
Wild-card betting recap:
Home: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Favorites: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Over/unders: 1-2-1
NFL regular-season betting stats:
Home: 148-103-1 SU, 121-126-5 ATS (3 London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 167-83-1 SU, 119-127-5 ATS (5 pick 'em)
Over/unders: 119-135-2
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have impacted the upcoming week's lines and where the lines will likely end up.
Early divisional round playoff moves
Here are the consensus lines for this upcoming weekend's divisional playoff games as of early Monday morning. We'll look at how we got to these numbers, including a look at where the offshore openers as well as Las Vegas books and lines moved in early betting. We'll look at them in the order that the lines were posted as the Baltimore-New England line opened Saturday night after the Ravens, the No. 6 seed, beat the Steelers and were locked in to face the No. 1-seeded Patriots. The Indianapolis-Denver line opened during the fourth quarter of the Colts' win over the Bengals, while the NFC lines had to wait until the end of the Detroit-Dallas game.
AFC
Ravens at Patriots (-7, -120), Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET: Offshore giant Pinnacle was the first book open and went with New England minus-7.5, plus-111 (which means there was heavy juice on the underdog). Within five minutes, the Westgate and William Hill books in Nevada also opened at 7.5. CRIS opened later at 7 and was bet to 7.5 fairly quickly, but by Sunday morning most of the books both here and offshore had been bet down to 7 with the lone exception being the MGM/Mirage, which held the line at 7.5 (but with minus-125 on Baltimore plus-7.5).
Westgate SuperBook divisional openers
(Home team on bottom; numbers in parentheses are where the line moved)
Ravens
Patriots -7.5 (-7)
Panthers
Seahawks -11 (-11.5)
Cowboys
Packers -6.5
Colts
Broncos -7.5 (-7)
During Sunday's wagering, books tinkered with the juice with the consensus coming in at Patriots minus-7, minus-120. The over/under opened 49 pretty much across the board but has come down slightly to a consensus 48.5 as of Monday morning.
Colts at Broncos (-7), Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET: This opened during the fourth quarter of Indianapolis' 26-10 rout of Cincinnati as Pinnacle jumped in with Denver minus-7 at 3:39 p.m. ET. Within two minutes, it was bet to 7.5. That's where the Westgate and William Hill books opened less than 10 minutes later. But it didn't stay there: After more books posted 7.5, it took less than half an hour for the line to get bet back down to 7. The over/under opened 52 at Pinny and 52.5 at Westgate, but bettors showed that they feel this will be a high-scoring affair as it was bet up to 54 during the day on Sunday.
NFC
Panthers at Seahawks (-11), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET: The NFC lines had to wait for the Detroit-Dallas game to be completed, but then books put up the sides and totals for both games and the early action was fast and furious. Pinnacle was again first at 7:48 p.m. ET with Seattle minus-10. The Wynn was the first to open in Vegas at Seattle minus-10.5 a minute later and by the time the Westgate opted for minus-11 another minute later, most books were heading in that direction -- and it didn't stop there. Within the next five minutes, the line went to 12 at Pinny and 12.5 at Westgate before finally reversing and settling in back at 11.5 (and then to 11).
As of Monday morning, that was the consensus line, though Pinny was down to 10.5. CRIS was at 11.5, as well as the stand-alone Vegas books at Treasure Island, Golden Nugget and Aliante. The over/under opened around 40.5 with some variance, but this number has been pretty solid across the board with the Wynn the only outlier at 40 as of early Monday morning.
Cowboys at Packers (-6.5), Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET: This game also saw a lot of early action. Pinnacle opened Green Bay minus-5.5 and then so did the Wynn and Station Casinos, but those were already being bet higher when the Westgate, BetOnline and Golden Nugget opened at minus-6.5 a minute or two later. The Wynn stopped at 6 and has held the line there. CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) opened at 6.5 but dropped to 6 later Sunday night and those two remained the only Vegas books not at 6.5 as of 5:30 a.m. PT Monday. The over/under opened at 52 at both Pinnacle and Westgate and that's been bet up to 53.
Now you're set for the divisional playoffs. Happy handicapping!
