E$PN Insider? Premier League's best weekend bets

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Defying

Defying

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After a break last weekend for the FA Cup third round, the Premier League resumes this weekend with Chelsea and Manchester City still neck-and-neck at the top of the table, and debate raging about whether Manchester United have the quality to bridge the gap and make it a three-way title race. United's performance against Southampton on Sunday ought to tell us something about the quality of Louis van Gaal's side.
Here's a look at where the betting value lies among three key matches, including Manchester United-Southampton, Chelsea-Newcastle and Crystal Palace-Tottenham.
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[h=2]Manchester United (home) vs. Southampton[/h]Asian handicap: Man Utd -0.75 (+106) vs. Southampton +0.75 (-113)
3-way line: Man Utd -124 / Southampton +395 / Draw +277
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 78 percent United
Total: 2.5 (Over +102, Under -111)
One factor that links Van Gaal's Manchester United with the sides Sir Alex Ferguson built is a stirring ability to blow away the opposition at Old Trafford. This season, United's home record is a formidable 8-1-1, and in recent weeks there has been a sense that United supporters now expect their side to win at home rather than chewing nervously on their nails during games.
That is bad news for Southampton. Ronald Koeman's visitors are a good team and have the division's best away defensive record (eight goals conceded), but have still managed to lose four of nine road games. Since mid-September, Southampton's only away points have come against Hull City, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, so they will find it difficult to get anything from this trip.
Southampton may have formidable defensive stats but I expect this to be a fairly open game. United's strength is their attack, which should be too strong for the Saints' defense. The visitors may have no choice but to come out and play, making over 2.5 goals the second pick.
The picks: Manchester United (-124) and over 2.5 goals (+102)
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[h=2]Chelsea (home) vs. Newcastle United[/h]Asian handicap: Chelsea -2 (+101) vs. Newcastle +2 (-108)
3-way line: Chelsea -475 / Newcastle +1679 / Draw +627
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 92 percent Chelsea
Total: 3 (Over -103, Under -105)
Chelsea will be highly motivated after their 5-3 defeat at Tottenham on New Year's Day. Manager Jose Mourinho ranted about the match officials after the game, deftly drawing attention away from his players. But he will have picked up on his team's shortcomings and demanded much better from his men this weekend.
There may be confusion at Newcastle United as the players wait to find out who the permanent successor will be to departed manager Alan Pardew, now at Crystal Palace. Newcastle have struggled against better sides recently; they lost 4-1 at Arsenal on Dec. 13 and 3-1 at Manchester United on Dec. 26.
Those two recent defeats bode ill for this trip, especially as Chelsea are dominant at home: They have a 9-0-0 home record, with eight of those nine wins coming by two or more goals.
The pick: Chelsea -2 Asian handicap (+101)
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[h=2]Crystal Palace (home) vs. Tottenham Hotspur[/h]Asian handicap: Crystal Palace +0.25 (+102) vs. Tottenham -0.25 (-109)
3-way line: Crystal Palace +251 / Tottenham +123 / Draw +248
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 77 percent Tottenham
Total: 2.5 (Over +108, Under -117)
For his first Prem game in charge at Palace, Pardew is sure to be granted a rapturous reception and that could make this a rip-roaring London derby. Pardew surprised many by quitting his supposedly safe seat at Newcastle United for relegation-threatened Palace, but if anything that will merely endear him to Eagles supporters even more.
Both teams have reason to be confident. Palace earned a point at Aston Villa (0-0) on New Year's Day before turning in a professional performance at amateurs Dover Athletic (4-0) in the FA Cup last weekend. Tottenham arrive on a six-match unbeaten run (4-0-2) and are unbeaten away from home all season other than against Chelsea and Manchester City.
It is hard to see either side standing off for long periods, so an open game is likely. Twenty-four out of 40 (60 percent) games involving these two sides this season have featured more than 2.5 goals, including five of Palace's nine home games and seven of Spurs' nine away games (67 percent of relevant home and away games).
The pick: Over 2.5 goals (+107)
 
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