The value of first-half betting
Examining why first-half wagers can often be better than full-game bets
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Happy New Year from "Tuesdays With Tuley" headquarters as we get ready for the NFL divisional playoffs and the college football title game this upcoming weekend.
I have one regret left from 2014: I wish I had written this particular column about first-half betting last week. I had started it but got sidetracked while tracking down the SuperContest champions as well as by the short holiday week. I also was planning to talk about first-half betting on our weekly Spreecast and chat, but those were postponed as well.
I've written many columns over the years about how much I like first-half betting, especially when I have an underdog that I think can stick around with the favorite but I'm afraid might get run over late. This applies to all other sports, too (especially both college and pro basketball, and even baseball when you have an underdog with a pitcher you like with the five-inning line), so I'll go ahead with it here.
Most bettors know that favorites and underdogs went 2-2 ATS in the NFL wild-card round and that they also split in the College Football Playoff, with Oregon covering in its rout of Florida State while Ohio State upset Alabama. But did you know that underdogs went 4-0-2 ATS in first-half wagering?
It's true.
Florida State was a 5-point first-half underdog against Oregon and trailed only 18-13 for the push, while Ohio State was a 4.5-point first-half 'dog and trailed only 21-20 at intermission.
In the NFL, Arizona was plus-3.5 in the first half at Carolina and led 14-13, Baltimore was a 2.5-point first-half 'dog at Pittsburgh and led 10-9, Cincinnati was a 3-point first-half 'dog at Indianapolis and pushed when it trailed 13-10, and Detroit was a 3.5-point first-half 'dog and led 17-7.
Obviously, it doesn't always work this way, but I hope you noticed the key part as we ran through those lines: They were all more than half the points those teams were getting for the full game. And, in the case of Baltimore, which was plus-2.5 while the game line was 3, and Cincinnati, which was plus-3 when the game line was 4, there was even more value on the first-half line.
That's where you gain the edge in betting first halves. You shorten the game in half -- literally -- and get more than half the points, and it often involves key numbers.
To put it in more practical use, let's look at this weekend's games and first-half lines as of noon PT on Tuesday:
<tbody>
</tbody>
As you can see, we again have the underdogs getting more than half of the game spread in every instance, and in the case of Carolina it's more than two-thirds (with the Panthers getting a full touchdown).
This week's games where I think the value is more on the first half than the game are Carolina plus-7 and Dallas plus-3.5, as those are the ones where I would fear that the favorite could pour it on at the end.
As an underdog bettor myself, I'm mostly talking about this from that point of view. But I'd advise chalk bettors to look at first-half bets as well, especially in cases where you think a team will dominate early but you're concerned about the possibility of the 'dog getting a backdoor cover late. In those cases, it makes sense to shorten the game by laying the points in the first half -- but, bettor beware that you're often laying more than half the game points.
Q&A ...
This column was created to be interactive (just like we're having a sports betting conversation among friends), so each week we ask for reader questions, either in the comments below or on Twitter (@ViewFromVegas) as well as on our weekly Spreecasts and chats. We didn't do those last week, so we're a little light on questions, but here's one from the most recent chat at SportsNation.
Adam from Austin (Dec. 26 SportsNation pro football chat)
Q: What are your thoughts on progression betting? It seems like flat betting is a waste of time unless you're hitting at least 58 percent with high volume. But obviously progressions kill you if you go on a skid. Betting is difficult.
Tuley
A: I mostly stick to "a bet is a bet" and not varying too much, although, of course, parlays are a type of progression betting. But here's the thing ... no matter how you're betting, it always works best when picking winners. If you're betting parlays and not hitting a high percentage of those bets, you're not going to be making anything anyway. If you're winning a lot, you'll be hitting more than your share and you'll scoff at those who say parlays are sucker bets.
Sports book news and notes
This last section will be where I clean out my reporter's notebook (and hopefully items relevant to sports betting aficionados):
• While we didn't technically have a "Tuesdays With Tuley" column last week, our interview with the CH Ballers, the team of four friends who hit a record 76 percent to run away with the SuperContest, was pretty close to a "Tuesdays With Tuley" roundtable discussion even though it took place on a Monday night and was posted on a Wednesday. You can read it here.
• Here's an update on the previous "Tuesdays With Tuley" column in which we looked at how each team was faring against its over/under season win total. At the writing of that column (with two weeks left in the regular season), nine teams had already gone over their win totals while 12 had clinched the under. Of those 11 undecided teams, St. Louis was the only one to stay under its win total of 7 as the Rams lost their last two games to finish 6-10. Nine teams went over in the last two weeks: Green Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Houston. Miami split its last two games to go 8-8 and push on its over/under of 8. That was the only team to push on its closing over/under win total, as overs went 18-13-1.
• Be sure to check out all the other sports betting content on ESPN Chalk, a lot of which is free. For instance, my colleague David Purdum wrote the other day about Oregon opening as a 7-point favorite over Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. As you might have noticed in the rundown of the lines for this weekend's big games, Oregon is now down to a 6.5-point favorite after big money came in on Ohio State over the weekend. The over/under, which Purdum had noted opened at 70.5 and was up to 73.5 as of his filing, has continued to rise and is a consensus 75 as of noon PT Tuesday, with Station Casinos already at 76.
Until next Tuesday, happy handicapping!
Examining why first-half wagers can often be better than full-game bets
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Happy New Year from "Tuesdays With Tuley" headquarters as we get ready for the NFL divisional playoffs and the college football title game this upcoming weekend.
I have one regret left from 2014: I wish I had written this particular column about first-half betting last week. I had started it but got sidetracked while tracking down the SuperContest champions as well as by the short holiday week. I also was planning to talk about first-half betting on our weekly Spreecast and chat, but those were postponed as well.
I've written many columns over the years about how much I like first-half betting, especially when I have an underdog that I think can stick around with the favorite but I'm afraid might get run over late. This applies to all other sports, too (especially both college and pro basketball, and even baseball when you have an underdog with a pitcher you like with the five-inning line), so I'll go ahead with it here.
Most bettors know that favorites and underdogs went 2-2 ATS in the NFL wild-card round and that they also split in the College Football Playoff, with Oregon covering in its rout of Florida State while Ohio State upset Alabama. But did you know that underdogs went 4-0-2 ATS in first-half wagering?
It's true.
Florida State was a 5-point first-half underdog against Oregon and trailed only 18-13 for the push, while Ohio State was a 4.5-point first-half 'dog and trailed only 21-20 at intermission.
In the NFL, Arizona was plus-3.5 in the first half at Carolina and led 14-13, Baltimore was a 2.5-point first-half 'dog at Pittsburgh and led 10-9, Cincinnati was a 3-point first-half 'dog at Indianapolis and pushed when it trailed 13-10, and Detroit was a 3.5-point first-half 'dog and led 17-7.
Obviously, it doesn't always work this way, but I hope you noticed the key part as we ran through those lines: They were all more than half the points those teams were getting for the full game. And, in the case of Baltimore, which was plus-2.5 while the game line was 3, and Cincinnati, which was plus-3 when the game line was 4, there was even more value on the first-half line.
That's where you gain the edge in betting first halves. You shorten the game in half -- literally -- and get more than half the points, and it often involves key numbers.
To put it in more practical use, let's look at this weekend's games and first-half lines as of noon PT on Tuesday:
| Favorite | Game line | 1st-half line | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | -7 | -4 | Baltimore |
| Seattle | -11 | -7 | Carolina |
| Green Bay | -6 | -3.5 | Dallas |
| Denver | -7 | -4 | Indianapolis |
| Oregon | -6.5 | -3.5 | Ohio State |
<tbody>
</tbody>
As you can see, we again have the underdogs getting more than half of the game spread in every instance, and in the case of Carolina it's more than two-thirds (with the Panthers getting a full touchdown).
This week's games where I think the value is more on the first half than the game are Carolina plus-7 and Dallas plus-3.5, as those are the ones where I would fear that the favorite could pour it on at the end.
As an underdog bettor myself, I'm mostly talking about this from that point of view. But I'd advise chalk bettors to look at first-half bets as well, especially in cases where you think a team will dominate early but you're concerned about the possibility of the 'dog getting a backdoor cover late. In those cases, it makes sense to shorten the game by laying the points in the first half -- but, bettor beware that you're often laying more than half the game points.
This column was created to be interactive (just like we're having a sports betting conversation among friends), so each week we ask for reader questions, either in the comments below or on Twitter (@ViewFromVegas) as well as on our weekly Spreecasts and chats. We didn't do those last week, so we're a little light on questions, but here's one from the most recent chat at SportsNation.
Adam from Austin (Dec. 26 SportsNation pro football chat)
Q: What are your thoughts on progression betting? It seems like flat betting is a waste of time unless you're hitting at least 58 percent with high volume. But obviously progressions kill you if you go on a skid. Betting is difficult.
Tuley
A: I mostly stick to "a bet is a bet" and not varying too much, although, of course, parlays are a type of progression betting. But here's the thing ... no matter how you're betting, it always works best when picking winners. If you're betting parlays and not hitting a high percentage of those bets, you're not going to be making anything anyway. If you're winning a lot, you'll be hitting more than your share and you'll scoff at those who say parlays are sucker bets.
This last section will be where I clean out my reporter's notebook (and hopefully items relevant to sports betting aficionados):
• While we didn't technically have a "Tuesdays With Tuley" column last week, our interview with the CH Ballers, the team of four friends who hit a record 76 percent to run away with the SuperContest, was pretty close to a "Tuesdays With Tuley" roundtable discussion even though it took place on a Monday night and was posted on a Wednesday. You can read it here.
• Here's an update on the previous "Tuesdays With Tuley" column in which we looked at how each team was faring against its over/under season win total. At the writing of that column (with two weeks left in the regular season), nine teams had already gone over their win totals while 12 had clinched the under. Of those 11 undecided teams, St. Louis was the only one to stay under its win total of 7 as the Rams lost their last two games to finish 6-10. Nine teams went over in the last two weeks: Green Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Houston. Miami split its last two games to go 8-8 and push on its over/under of 8. That was the only team to push on its closing over/under win total, as overs went 18-13-1.
• Be sure to check out all the other sports betting content on ESPN Chalk, a lot of which is free. For instance, my colleague David Purdum wrote the other day about Oregon opening as a 7-point favorite over Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. As you might have noticed in the rundown of the lines for this weekend's big games, Oregon is now down to a 6.5-point favorite after big money came in on Ohio State over the weekend. The over/under, which Purdum had noted opened at 70.5 and was up to 73.5 as of his filing, has continued to rise and is a consensus 75 as of noon PT Tuesday, with Station Casinos already at 76.
Until next Tuesday, happy handicapping!
