[h=1]Championship game line moves[/h][h=3]Where the early money is going for the NFL championship games[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
New England, Seattle, Green Bay and Indianapolis were the big winners of NFL divisional playoff weekend -- and you can add Las Vegas to that list.The sports books here were reporting a clean sweep Sunday night after the Colts closed out the weekend with their 24-13 upset of the Broncos, the only outright upset of the four games. Sports books often have to cheer for the underdogs, which didn't win any other games but were 3-1 against the spread, with the Seahawks' 31-17 win over the Panthers to cover as 13-point home favorites being the only exception.
The biggest win for the books were the two games in which the favorite won but didn't cover the spread. That's because the books not only win the majority of the spread bets, but they also don't have to pay out the plus-money they would have had to if the 'dog had won outright.
Sunday's big winner was the Packers' 26-21 victory over the Cowboys after closing as a consensus 5.5-point favorite here in Vegas. It was the second straight week that a Dallas game ended in controversy over a referee's decision, with this week's debate coming over Dez Bryant's catch/non-catch on a fourth-and-2 play that originally looked like it was going to give the Cowboys a first-and-goal at the Packers' 1-yard line. Betting support on Dallas had dropped the line from 6.5, but the books always get a lot of money on Green Bay, so the bigger help to the books was not having to pay Cowboys moneyline bettors (it also helped that the game stayed under the total of 53).
"I got a text from my wife right after that game that said, 'That ended perfect for you, right?'" said Jay Kornegay of the Westgate SuperBook. He replied to her (and to this reporter): "Yep."
There was a looming situation for the books <offer>that threatened to wipe out a lot of their weekend profits. The first three games had all finished within 3 points of their closing spreads, so teasers on both teams had been hitting all weekend and a lot were tied to Denver. In addition, the vast majority of late point-spread wagers were coming in on the Broncos, as they were bet from 7- to 9.5-point favorites (even hitting 10 at the South Point before getting bet back down to 9.5).</offer>
But, again, things fell the sports books' way with the Colts' 24-13 victory, and they didn't even mind paying out moneyline wagers in the neighborhood of plus-350 in this case. Again, it also helped that the game stayed under the total of 54. After both Saturday games were overs, both Sunday games were unders.
Here's the breakdown of the NFL playoff betting so far.
Divisional betting recap:
Home: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Favorites: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Over/unders: 2-2
Overall NFL playoff betting stats:
Home: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS
Favorites: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS
Over/unders: 3-4-1
NFL regular-season betting stats:
Home: 148-103-1 SU, 121-126-5 ATS (3 London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 167-83-1 SU, 119-127-5 ATS (5 pick-'em)
Over/unders: 119-135-2
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have affected the upcoming week's lines, and where the money is (and will be) going.
Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET kickoff): Green Bay at Seattle (-7.5)
[h=4]Westgate SuperBook conference openers[/h](Home team on bottom; numbers in parentheses are where the line moved)
Packers
Seahawks -7 (-7.5)
Colts
Patriots -7.5 (-7)
As the Packers were wrapping up their 26-21 win over the Cowboys at 1:13 p.m. PT, the first book that I saw pop up on the Don Best screen with a line on the NFC Championship Game was the Westgate at Seattle minus-7. Over the next few minutes, several more books opened at 7 before the Wynn Las Vegas countered with Seattle minus-6.5. Offshore giant Pinnacle and the William Hill books in Nevada also went with minus-6.5, but those were quickly bet to 7 by the time the Indy-Denver game kicked off.
During the course of that game, money continued to flow in on the favored Seahawks, and by the end of betting on Sunday night, just about every book was up to Seattle minus-7.5, though the Wynn was still holding the line at minus-7 (but with minus-120 juice attached). The Westgate opened the over/under at 46.5 and, while most books opened it at 47, the Westgate didn't budge all night. The MGM books and Treasure Island also went with 46.5, but 10 of the 14 Vegas books on the Don Best screen were at 47 by the end of Sunday night. The Boyd Gaming/Coast Casinos had the highest total in town at 47.5 as of late Sunday night after opening at 47.
As for the line moving forward, we were already seeing some indications that it's coming back down to the key number of 7 at several books. It looks like that should be the most common number the rest of the week, though some books will probably hold the line at 7.5 but have increased juice on the underdog (Green Bay plus-7, minus-120).
Sunday (6:40 p.m. ET kickoff): Indianapolis at New England (-7)
The books didn't wait for the final gun in the Colts' 24-13 upset of the Broncos, as they started posting this line midway through the fourth quarter when Indy was ahead by 11 points. Pinnacle opened New England minus-7 (even money) at 4:36 p.m. PT and Station Casinos was actually the first Vegas book to open at 4:38 p.m. with New England minus-8, with the Westgate also opting to go a little high a minute later at minus-7.5. It took only two minutes for Stations to be bet down to 7.5 and another eight minutes to go to 7 like most other books.
Westgate held the line at 7.5 for more than 40 minutes before dropping to 7 at 5:22 p.m. PT. That's where just about every book sat as of late Sunday night (the lone Vegas exception being the Treasure Island at New England minus-6.5, minus-130). The over/under on this game opened between 53.5 and 54.5, and even though the consensus is 54, it hasn't totally settled yet as of Monday morning.
As for the line moving forward, while it's a pretty solid 7, there are some books that have gone to added juice on the 'dog and we could see some books dip to 6.5, though most likely with added juice for those looking to take the favorite (New England minus-6.5, minus-120).
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
New England, Seattle, Green Bay and Indianapolis were the big winners of NFL divisional playoff weekend -- and you can add Las Vegas to that list.The sports books here were reporting a clean sweep Sunday night after the Colts closed out the weekend with their 24-13 upset of the Broncos, the only outright upset of the four games. Sports books often have to cheer for the underdogs, which didn't win any other games but were 3-1 against the spread, with the Seahawks' 31-17 win over the Panthers to cover as 13-point home favorites being the only exception.
The biggest win for the books were the two games in which the favorite won but didn't cover the spread. That's because the books not only win the majority of the spread bets, but they also don't have to pay out the plus-money they would have had to if the 'dog had won outright.
Sunday's big winner was the Packers' 26-21 victory over the Cowboys after closing as a consensus 5.5-point favorite here in Vegas. It was the second straight week that a Dallas game ended in controversy over a referee's decision, with this week's debate coming over Dez Bryant's catch/non-catch on a fourth-and-2 play that originally looked like it was going to give the Cowboys a first-and-goal at the Packers' 1-yard line. Betting support on Dallas had dropped the line from 6.5, but the books always get a lot of money on Green Bay, so the bigger help to the books was not having to pay Cowboys moneyline bettors (it also helped that the game stayed under the total of 53).
"I got a text from my wife right after that game that said, 'That ended perfect for you, right?'" said Jay Kornegay of the Westgate SuperBook. He replied to her (and to this reporter): "Yep."
There was a looming situation for the books <offer>that threatened to wipe out a lot of their weekend profits. The first three games had all finished within 3 points of their closing spreads, so teasers on both teams had been hitting all weekend and a lot were tied to Denver. In addition, the vast majority of late point-spread wagers were coming in on the Broncos, as they were bet from 7- to 9.5-point favorites (even hitting 10 at the South Point before getting bet back down to 9.5).</offer>
But, again, things fell the sports books' way with the Colts' 24-13 victory, and they didn't even mind paying out moneyline wagers in the neighborhood of plus-350 in this case. Again, it also helped that the game stayed under the total of 54. After both Saturday games were overs, both Sunday games were unders.
Here's the breakdown of the NFL playoff betting so far.
Divisional betting recap:
Home: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Favorites: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Over/unders: 2-2
Overall NFL playoff betting stats:
Home: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS
Favorites: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS
Over/unders: 3-4-1
NFL regular-season betting stats:
Home: 148-103-1 SU, 121-126-5 ATS (3 London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 167-83-1 SU, 119-127-5 ATS (5 pick-'em)
Over/unders: 119-135-2
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have affected the upcoming week's lines, and where the money is (and will be) going.
Here are the consensus lines for this upcoming weekend's conference title games as of early Monday morning. We'll look at how we got to these numbers, including a look at where the Las Vegas books and offshore books opened and how they moved in early betting.Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET kickoff): Green Bay at Seattle (-7.5)
[h=4]Westgate SuperBook conference openers[/h](Home team on bottom; numbers in parentheses are where the line moved)
Packers
Seahawks -7 (-7.5)
Colts
Patriots -7.5 (-7)
As the Packers were wrapping up their 26-21 win over the Cowboys at 1:13 p.m. PT, the first book that I saw pop up on the Don Best screen with a line on the NFC Championship Game was the Westgate at Seattle minus-7. Over the next few minutes, several more books opened at 7 before the Wynn Las Vegas countered with Seattle minus-6.5. Offshore giant Pinnacle and the William Hill books in Nevada also went with minus-6.5, but those were quickly bet to 7 by the time the Indy-Denver game kicked off.
During the course of that game, money continued to flow in on the favored Seahawks, and by the end of betting on Sunday night, just about every book was up to Seattle minus-7.5, though the Wynn was still holding the line at minus-7 (but with minus-120 juice attached). The Westgate opened the over/under at 46.5 and, while most books opened it at 47, the Westgate didn't budge all night. The MGM books and Treasure Island also went with 46.5, but 10 of the 14 Vegas books on the Don Best screen were at 47 by the end of Sunday night. The Boyd Gaming/Coast Casinos had the highest total in town at 47.5 as of late Sunday night after opening at 47.
As for the line moving forward, we were already seeing some indications that it's coming back down to the key number of 7 at several books. It looks like that should be the most common number the rest of the week, though some books will probably hold the line at 7.5 but have increased juice on the underdog (Green Bay plus-7, minus-120).
Sunday (6:40 p.m. ET kickoff): Indianapolis at New England (-7)
The books didn't wait for the final gun in the Colts' 24-13 upset of the Broncos, as they started posting this line midway through the fourth quarter when Indy was ahead by 11 points. Pinnacle opened New England minus-7 (even money) at 4:36 p.m. PT and Station Casinos was actually the first Vegas book to open at 4:38 p.m. with New England minus-8, with the Westgate also opting to go a little high a minute later at minus-7.5. It took only two minutes for Stations to be bet down to 7.5 and another eight minutes to go to 7 like most other books.
Westgate held the line at 7.5 for more than 40 minutes before dropping to 7 at 5:22 p.m. PT. That's where just about every book sat as of late Sunday night (the lone Vegas exception being the Treasure Island at New England minus-6.5, minus-130). The over/under on this game opened between 53.5 and 54.5, and even though the consensus is 54, it hasn't totally settled yet as of Monday morning.
As for the line moving forward, while it's a pretty solid 7, there are some books that have gone to added juice on the 'dog and we could see some books dip to 6.5, though most likely with added juice for those looking to take the favorite (New England minus-6.5, minus-120).
