It looks like we're set for a two-horse Premier League title race after Manchester United's 1-0 home defeat to Southampton underlined their limitations last weekend. Chelsea and Manchester City are the Prem's Big Two, and there should be more twists and turns at the top of the table as they take on Swansea and Arsenal, respectively, this weekend.
Here's a look at the best value bets among six of the Prem's weekend fixtures, including Manchester City-Arsenal, Swansea City-Chelsea, QPR-Manchester United, Aston Villa-Liverpool, West Ham-Hull and Burnley-Crystal Palace.
3-way line: Man City -125 / Arsenal +359 / Draw +305
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 77 percent Manchester City
Total: 3 (Over -108, Under -101)
There are several stats that say Manchester City should be shorter than minus-125 to win this weekend. The team from the blue half of Manchester have won 25 of 29 Prem home games since Manuel Pellegrini became manager. Plus, City have won seven of 10 home games this season and nine of their last 12 Prem games. Arsenal have lost four of 11 away games, and when they traveled to Chelsea -- City's main title rivals -- in October, they lost 2-0. Arsenal played well in beating Stoke City 3-0 last weekend but this will be a different proposition altogether. Those looking for a second bet may consider high goals: The last seven head-to-head meetings at the Etihad Stadium have produced 28 goals.
The pick: Manchester City -0.75 Asian handicap (+103)
3-way line: Swansea +626 / Chelsea -186 / Draw +332
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 78 percent Chelsea
Total: 2.5 (Over +104, Under -114)
Swansea's chances of avoiding a heavy defeat are underestimated. Garry Monk's hosts have a 6-2-3 home record, suggesting they can frustrate Chelsea this weekend. It's also significant Swansea have yet to lose by more than a single goal at the Liberty Stadium. Chelsea's form is patchy: The Blues have won just one of their last five Prem fixtures (1-2-2). Their away form is pretty moderate, too, as Jose Mourinho's visitors have won fewer than half their games on the road (5-2-4). All these stats suggest Chelsea's price to win is too short, giving you an opportunity to support Swansea on the Asian handicap. With our pick you'll get your stakes back if Swansea lose by a single goal and make money if the hosts win or draw.
The pick: Swansea City +1 Asian handicap (-101)
3-way line: QPR +498 / Man Utd -157 / Draw +314
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 83 percent Man United
Total: 2.5 (Over -121, Under +110)
These two sides may be competing at opposite ends of the table but the stats say QPR have a reasonable chance of picking up a point. Despite sitting 19th in the table, the hosts have a good home record (5-2-4), avoiding defeat against Manchester City (2-2), among others. QPR's two defeats, against Hull City and Liverpool, were by only a single goal. United's moderate away record includes only two victories (2-2-6), and both of those wins came by a single goal. Statistically, then, there's little downside to supporting QPR on the Asian handicap. You'll lose your stakes only if QPR lose by two goals or more, and will make a profit if the hosts win or draw.
The pick: QPR +1 Asian handicap (-122)
3-way line: Aston Villa +386 / Liverpool -114 / Draw +255
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 72 percent Liverpool
Total: 2.25 (Over -112, Under +103)
Aston Villa's faltering attack is a big factor in this game. Paul Lambert's side have failed to score in their last four Prem matches. Plus, they have scored more than once in just two of their 21 Prem games to date, and their overall tally of 11 goals is the division's lowest. Liverpool are improving. Following three straight defeats in November, the Reds have roused themselves: They have lost just one of their last nine matches (5-1-3) and are unbeaten in five (3-0-2). There is room for improvement in their performances but Liverpool have worked out how to pick up points without necessarily playing well, and will be confident of collecting all three points against shot-shy hosts. Liverpool have an excellent record at Villa Park, too: The Reds are 10-1-5 from their last 16 visits.
The pick: Liverpool (-114)
3-way line: West Ham -137 / Hull +446 / Draw +286
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 62 percent West Ham
Total: 2.25 (Over -115, Under +105)
West Ham may be tired after their FA Cup shootout victory over Everton on Wednesday night but they will also be on a high. Going through on penalties keeps alive their interest in the competition and gives them a boost ahead of this winnable fixture this weekend. West Ham have won only one of their last six Prem matches (1-2-3) but have an excellent recent home record (6-1-2) and should be too strong for Hull. The visitors have lost eight of their last 12 matches, four of their last six away matches and have injury concerns in attack.
The pick: West Ham -0.75 Asian handicap (-103)
3-way line: Burnley +145 / Crystal Palace +233 / Draw +222
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 36 percent draw
Total: 2.25 (Over +111, Under -122)
There has been a significant increase in the number of goals in Burnley's games since a rather meek start to the season. Four of their opening five games featured one goal or no goals at all; since then, however, 10 of 16 games have featured three or more goals, with an average goals-per-game count of 3.13. A buoyant Crystal Palace are capable of contributing to an open, high-scoring game: Their players will be buzzing after they came from behind last weekend to beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 in Alan Pardew's first game in charge.
The pick: Over 2.25 goals (+111)
Here's a look at the best value bets among six of the Prem's weekend fixtures, including Manchester City-Arsenal, Swansea City-Chelsea, QPR-Manchester United, Aston Villa-Liverpool, West Ham-Hull and Burnley-Crystal Palace.
[h=2]Manchester City (home) vs. Arsenal[/h]Asian handicap: Man City -0.75 (+103) vs. Arsenal +0.75 (-110)3-way line: Man City -125 / Arsenal +359 / Draw +305
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 77 percent Manchester City
Total: 3 (Over -108, Under -101)
There are several stats that say Manchester City should be shorter than minus-125 to win this weekend. The team from the blue half of Manchester have won 25 of 29 Prem home games since Manuel Pellegrini became manager. Plus, City have won seven of 10 home games this season and nine of their last 12 Prem games. Arsenal have lost four of 11 away games, and when they traveled to Chelsea -- City's main title rivals -- in October, they lost 2-0. Arsenal played well in beating Stoke City 3-0 last weekend but this will be a different proposition altogether. Those looking for a second bet may consider high goals: The last seven head-to-head meetings at the Etihad Stadium have produced 28 goals.
The pick: Manchester City -0.75 Asian handicap (+103)
[h=2]Swansea City (home) vs. Chelsea[/h]Asian handicap: Swansea +1 (-101) vs. Chelsea -1 (-105)3-way line: Swansea +626 / Chelsea -186 / Draw +332
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 78 percent Chelsea
Total: 2.5 (Over +104, Under -114)
Swansea's chances of avoiding a heavy defeat are underestimated. Garry Monk's hosts have a 6-2-3 home record, suggesting they can frustrate Chelsea this weekend. It's also significant Swansea have yet to lose by more than a single goal at the Liberty Stadium. Chelsea's form is patchy: The Blues have won just one of their last five Prem fixtures (1-2-2). Their away form is pretty moderate, too, as Jose Mourinho's visitors have won fewer than half their games on the road (5-2-4). All these stats suggest Chelsea's price to win is too short, giving you an opportunity to support Swansea on the Asian handicap. With our pick you'll get your stakes back if Swansea lose by a single goal and make money if the hosts win or draw.
The pick: Swansea City +1 Asian handicap (-101)
[h=2]QPR (home) vs. Manchester United[/h]Asian handicap: Queens Park Rangers +1 (-122) vs. Man Utd -1 (+114)3-way line: QPR +498 / Man Utd -157 / Draw +314
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 83 percent Man United
Total: 2.5 (Over -121, Under +110)
These two sides may be competing at opposite ends of the table but the stats say QPR have a reasonable chance of picking up a point. Despite sitting 19th in the table, the hosts have a good home record (5-2-4), avoiding defeat against Manchester City (2-2), among others. QPR's two defeats, against Hull City and Liverpool, were by only a single goal. United's moderate away record includes only two victories (2-2-6), and both of those wins came by a single goal. Statistically, then, there's little downside to supporting QPR on the Asian handicap. You'll lose your stakes only if QPR lose by two goals or more, and will make a profit if the hosts win or draw.
The pick: QPR +1 Asian handicap (-122)
[h=2]Aston Villa (home) vs. Liverpool[/h]Asian handicap: Aston Villa +0.5 (+107) vs. Liverpool -0.5 (-114)3-way line: Aston Villa +386 / Liverpool -114 / Draw +255
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 72 percent Liverpool
Total: 2.25 (Over -112, Under +103)
Aston Villa's faltering attack is a big factor in this game. Paul Lambert's side have failed to score in their last four Prem matches. Plus, they have scored more than once in just two of their 21 Prem games to date, and their overall tally of 11 goals is the division's lowest. Liverpool are improving. Following three straight defeats in November, the Reds have roused themselves: They have lost just one of their last nine matches (5-1-3) and are unbeaten in five (3-0-2). There is room for improvement in their performances but Liverpool have worked out how to pick up points without necessarily playing well, and will be confident of collecting all three points against shot-shy hosts. Liverpool have an excellent record at Villa Park, too: The Reds are 10-1-5 from their last 16 visits.
The pick: Liverpool (-114)
[h=2]West Ham United (home) vs. Hull City[/h]Asian handicap: West Ham -0.75 (-103) vs. Hull +0.75 (-103)3-way line: West Ham -137 / Hull +446 / Draw +286
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 62 percent West Ham
Total: 2.25 (Over -115, Under +105)
West Ham may be tired after their FA Cup shootout victory over Everton on Wednesday night but they will also be on a high. Going through on penalties keeps alive their interest in the competition and gives them a boost ahead of this winnable fixture this weekend. West Ham have won only one of their last six Prem matches (1-2-3) but have an excellent recent home record (6-1-2) and should be too strong for Hull. The visitors have lost eight of their last 12 matches, four of their last six away matches and have injury concerns in attack.
The pick: West Ham -0.75 Asian handicap (-103)
[h=2]Burnley (home) vs. Crystal Palace[/h]Asian handicap: Burnley -0.25 (+108) vs. Crystal Palace +0.25 (-116)3-way line: Burnley +145 / Crystal Palace +233 / Draw +222
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 36 percent draw
Total: 2.25 (Over +111, Under -122)
There has been a significant increase in the number of goals in Burnley's games since a rather meek start to the season. Four of their opening five games featured one goal or no goals at all; since then, however, 10 of 16 games have featured three or more goals, with an average goals-per-game count of 3.13. A buoyant Crystal Palace are capable of contributing to an open, high-scoring game: Their players will be buzzing after they came from behind last weekend to beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 in Alan Pardew's first game in charge.
The pick: Over 2.25 goals (+111)
