[h=1]Warriors could run away with title[/h][h=3]Why the road to winning the 2014-15 NBA crown goes through Golden State[/h]
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
his NBA season has been repeatedly described as "wide open." Of last year's four conference finalists, three sit at .500 or worse and the fourth (the San Antonio Spurs) are in seventh place in their conference. The trendy preseason title pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers, are barely better than the break-even point.
Still, as we reach the middle of the 2014-15 regular season, it's time to acknowledge that there is a clear favorite to win the championship: the Golden State Warriors.
Despite Friday's road loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which snapped an eight-game winning streak, the Warriors still lead the Western Conference by 3½ games. They are 1½ games better than the East's top team, the Atlanta Hawks, who have won their last 12 games. And advanced statistics suggest the true gap between Golden State and every other team might be much larger.<offer></offer>
[h=3]Potent point differential[/h]
Kevin Pelton
The Warriors have the league's best point differential (plus-10.9 PPG). The gap between them and the rest of the league, however, might be surprising. The difference between Golden State's point differential and second-place Atlanta's (plus-6.7 PPG) is larger than the gap between the Hawks and the 10th-ranked Chicago Bulls (plus-2.8 PPG).
Not only is the Warriors' point differential so much better than the rest of the league, but it's historically great. Since the ABA-NBA merger, just four teams have outscored their opposition by double figures on average (the Bulls in 1991-92, 1995-96 and 1996-97 and the 2007-08 Boston Celtics). All four won the championship, and the only team to surpass a plus-10.9 differential was the 1995-96 Bulls, which won an NBA-record 72 games.
Odds are that Golden State's differential will come down during the second half of the season. Besides simple regression to the mean -- particularly inevitable in the case of a team that has so dramatically exceeded preseason expectations -- the Warriors have played a relatively favorable schedule. Factoring in location and opponent, their average game has been 0.4 points easier than average. The rest of the way, Golden State's typical game will be 0.3 points harder than average.
Nonetheless, it's unlikely that anyone will catch the Warriors in terms of scoring margin. Remarkably, during the span that Atlanta has gone 26-2, Golden State still has the superior point differential (plus-10.9 to plus-10.2).
[h=3]Can they win without Bogut?[/h]
To the extent the Warriors have been installed as a favorite, it usually comes with a caveat: whether Andrew Bogut can stay healthy. The center is irreplaceable from a skills standpoint. Golden State has other big men who can facilitate from the high post (David Lee) or protect the rim (Festus Ezeli), but nobody combines both skills like or is as effective defensively as Bogut. That's an issue, given his history of injuries, including a fractured rib that kept him out of last year's opening-round playoff loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Warriors have suffered four of their six losses in the 13 games Bogut has missed this season, most recently Friday's defeat at Oklahoma City. They are an incredible 23-2 when Bogut is in the lineup, a 75-win pace over a full season. Their plus-12.3 point differential in those games would surpass the 1995-96 Bulls (plus-12.2) for the best in modern NBA history.
Yet it's perhaps just as impressive that Golden State remains the NBA's best team by point differential (plus-8.2 PPG) without Bogut. Four of the Warriors' nine wins without their top center have come by 20-plus points, including a 26-point drubbing of the Thunder at Oracle Arena on Jan. 5.
[h=4]Warriors with and without Bogut, 2014-15 season[/h]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>AdjTot incorporates home-court advantage and is not the sum of AdjOff and AdjDef.
Taking a closer look at Golden State's performance with and without Bogut this season shows two very different teams. With Bogut, the Warriors feature the league's best balance: a top-five offense and the NBA's stingiest defense on a per-possession basis. With offensive-minded Lee andMarreese Speights taking most of Bogut's minutes, along with more small ball, Bogut-less Golden State scores 1.5 percentage points more frequently compared to opponents' typical per-possession defense but dips to fourth on defense. That combination is similar to the 2012-13Miami Heat, who went 66-16 and won their second consecutive championship.
Winning four playoff series would be a lot to ask of the Warriors without Bogut, but they have played well enough without him that the injury caveat should probably be softened. Fortunately for the Warriors, Bogut is healthy now. As a result, there should be no question that the clear NBA title favorite plays in the Bay Area.
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</center>[h=3]News and notes[/h]
• The Milwaukee Bucks were dealt a pair of blows late last week. On Friday, the NBA announced that center Larry Sanders was suspended a minimum of 10 games for a violation of the league's anti-drug policy. A day later, an MRI revealed that backup point guard Kendall Marshall tore his ACL during the Bucks' win over the New York Knicks in London. Marshall joins rookie Jabari Parker, who previously tore his ACL, and rookie Damien Inglis as Milwaukee players who are out for the season. That leaves Jason Kidd with just 11 active players during the first five games of Sanders' suspension. The Bucks can move him to the suspended list and add a 16th player after those five games are up.
Milwaukee's strong bench has been about as effective with Jerryd Bayless at point guard instead of Marshall this season, so his injury shouldn't cause a major hit to the team's playoff hopes. But if Bayless or starter Brandon Knight misses time, the Bucks no longer have a third point guard on the roster after waiving Nate Wolters to make room for Kenyon Martin. That could translate toGiannis Antetokounmpo playing point guard on a more regular basis. Milwaukee's thin roster might also squelch any notion of trading veterans before the deadline if the Bucks' playoff bid hasn't done so already.
• Legendary Clippers play-by-play broadcaster Ralph Lawler raised an interesting idea on Saturday's broadcast: Isn't it time to expand All-Star rosters? They remain at 12 players despite the fact that the NBA now permits teams to dress 13 players for each game, a rule change that went into effect after the 2011 lockout. Aligning those numbers seems sensible.
Cynics will decry lowering the standard for All-Star selection, but that's silly in the context of NBA expansion. All-Star rosters first went to 12 in 1968, when there were 12 teams in the league. That season, 15.9 percent of all NBA players were selected as All-Stars. To maintain that same proportion in the 30-team league, we would need to expand All-Star rosters to 38 players -- for each conference.
• With the Los Angeles Lakers visiting Phoenix on Monday night, it's a good time to check in on the top-five-protected first-round pick the Lakers owe the Suns from the Steve Nash trade. If the season ended today, the Lakers would enter the lottery in fourth position. They are reasonably set in that spot -- 1½ games behind the Orlando Magic in fifth and 3½ games ahead of the No. 3Philadelphia 76ers.
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Kevin Pelton</cite>
My simulations of the remainder of the season, summarized in the chart above, suggest that the most likely outcome is the Lakers coming out of the lottery fifth and keeping the pick. In total, the pick ends up in the top five and stays with the Lakers about two-thirds of the time, with a one-third chance Phoenix gets a lottery pick -- most likely sixth overall.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
his NBA season has been repeatedly described as "wide open." Of last year's four conference finalists, three sit at .500 or worse and the fourth (the San Antonio Spurs) are in seventh place in their conference. The trendy preseason title pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers, are barely better than the break-even point.
Still, as we reach the middle of the 2014-15 regular season, it's time to acknowledge that there is a clear favorite to win the championship: the Golden State Warriors.
Despite Friday's road loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which snapped an eight-game winning streak, the Warriors still lead the Western Conference by 3½ games. They are 1½ games better than the East's top team, the Atlanta Hawks, who have won their last 12 games. And advanced statistics suggest the true gap between Golden State and every other team might be much larger.<offer></offer>
[h=3]Potent point differential[/h]
The Warriors have the league's best point differential (plus-10.9 PPG). The gap between them and the rest of the league, however, might be surprising. The difference between Golden State's point differential and second-place Atlanta's (plus-6.7 PPG) is larger than the gap between the Hawks and the 10th-ranked Chicago Bulls (plus-2.8 PPG).
Not only is the Warriors' point differential so much better than the rest of the league, but it's historically great. Since the ABA-NBA merger, just four teams have outscored their opposition by double figures on average (the Bulls in 1991-92, 1995-96 and 1996-97 and the 2007-08 Boston Celtics). All four won the championship, and the only team to surpass a plus-10.9 differential was the 1995-96 Bulls, which won an NBA-record 72 games.
Odds are that Golden State's differential will come down during the second half of the season. Besides simple regression to the mean -- particularly inevitable in the case of a team that has so dramatically exceeded preseason expectations -- the Warriors have played a relatively favorable schedule. Factoring in location and opponent, their average game has been 0.4 points easier than average. The rest of the way, Golden State's typical game will be 0.3 points harder than average.
Nonetheless, it's unlikely that anyone will catch the Warriors in terms of scoring margin. Remarkably, during the span that Atlanta has gone 26-2, Golden State still has the superior point differential (plus-10.9 to plus-10.2).
[h=3]Can they win without Bogut?[/h]
To the extent the Warriors have been installed as a favorite, it usually comes with a caveat: whether Andrew Bogut can stay healthy. The center is irreplaceable from a skills standpoint. Golden State has other big men who can facilitate from the high post (David Lee) or protect the rim (Festus Ezeli), but nobody combines both skills like or is as effective defensively as Bogut. That's an issue, given his history of injuries, including a fractured rib that kept him out of last year's opening-round playoff loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Warriors have suffered four of their six losses in the 13 games Bogut has missed this season, most recently Friday's defeat at Oklahoma City. They are an incredible 23-2 when Bogut is in the lineup, a 75-win pace over a full season. Their plus-12.3 point differential in those games would surpass the 1995-96 Bulls (plus-12.2) for the best in modern NBA history.
Yet it's perhaps just as impressive that Golden State remains the NBA's best team by point differential (plus-8.2 PPG) without Bogut. Four of the Warriors' nine wins without their top center have come by 20-plus points, including a 26-point drubbing of the Thunder at Oracle Arena on Jan. 5.
[h=4]Warriors with and without Bogut, 2014-15 season[/h]
| Bogut in lineup? | AdjOff (rank) | AdjDef (rank) | AdjTot (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +4.5 (4) | +7.4 (1) | +11.6 (1) |
| No | +6.0 (4) | +3.5 (4) | +8.4 (1) |
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</tbody><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
Taking a closer look at Golden State's performance with and without Bogut this season shows two very different teams. With Bogut, the Warriors feature the league's best balance: a top-five offense and the NBA's stingiest defense on a per-possession basis. With offensive-minded Lee andMarreese Speights taking most of Bogut's minutes, along with more small ball, Bogut-less Golden State scores 1.5 percentage points more frequently compared to opponents' typical per-possession defense but dips to fourth on defense. That combination is similar to the 2012-13Miami Heat, who went 66-16 and won their second consecutive championship.
Winning four playoff series would be a lot to ask of the Warriors without Bogut, but they have played well enough without him that the injury caveat should probably be softened. Fortunately for the Warriors, Bogut is healthy now. As a result, there should be no question that the clear NBA title favorite plays in the Bay Area.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]News and notes[/h]
• The Milwaukee Bucks were dealt a pair of blows late last week. On Friday, the NBA announced that center Larry Sanders was suspended a minimum of 10 games for a violation of the league's anti-drug policy. A day later, an MRI revealed that backup point guard Kendall Marshall tore his ACL during the Bucks' win over the New York Knicks in London. Marshall joins rookie Jabari Parker, who previously tore his ACL, and rookie Damien Inglis as Milwaukee players who are out for the season. That leaves Jason Kidd with just 11 active players during the first five games of Sanders' suspension. The Bucks can move him to the suspended list and add a 16th player after those five games are up.
Milwaukee's strong bench has been about as effective with Jerryd Bayless at point guard instead of Marshall this season, so his injury shouldn't cause a major hit to the team's playoff hopes. But if Bayless or starter Brandon Knight misses time, the Bucks no longer have a third point guard on the roster after waiving Nate Wolters to make room for Kenyon Martin. That could translate toGiannis Antetokounmpo playing point guard on a more regular basis. Milwaukee's thin roster might also squelch any notion of trading veterans before the deadline if the Bucks' playoff bid hasn't done so already.
• Legendary Clippers play-by-play broadcaster Ralph Lawler raised an interesting idea on Saturday's broadcast: Isn't it time to expand All-Star rosters? They remain at 12 players despite the fact that the NBA now permits teams to dress 13 players for each game, a rule change that went into effect after the 2011 lockout. Aligning those numbers seems sensible.
Cynics will decry lowering the standard for All-Star selection, but that's silly in the context of NBA expansion. All-Star rosters first went to 12 in 1968, when there were 12 teams in the league. That season, 15.9 percent of all NBA players were selected as All-Stars. To maintain that same proportion in the 30-team league, we would need to expand All-Star rosters to 38 players -- for each conference.
• With the Los Angeles Lakers visiting Phoenix on Monday night, it's a good time to check in on the top-five-protected first-round pick the Lakers owe the Suns from the Steve Nash trade. If the season ended today, the Lakers would enter the lottery in fourth position. They are reasonably set in that spot -- 1½ games behind the Orlando Magic in fifth and 3½ games ahead of the No. 3Philadelphia 76ers.
My simulations of the remainder of the season, summarized in the chart above, suggest that the most likely outcome is the Lakers coming out of the lottery fifth and keeping the pick. In total, the pick ends up in the top five and stays with the Lakers about two-thirds of the time, with a one-third chance Phoenix gets a lottery pick -- most likely sixth overall.
