Super Bowl Sunday XLIX Service Plays 2/1/15

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SBXLIX Opening Numbers

Super Bowl XLIX
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
February 1, 6:30 p.m. ET

New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)

Line Moves

Las Vegas Line Moves: The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Seahawks as 2 ½-point favorites over the Patriots. The line never went to 3 at the Westgate and quickly went down to pick ‘em. A total of 48 ½ was sent out at the SuperBook and its holding steady.


Offshore Line Moves: The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites at one major offshore sportsbook, Pinnacle. The early action came in early on Seattle and the books quickly pushed the Seahawks to -3. However, as New England continued its domination of Indianapolis, the line went down to pick ‘em. The total at Pinnacle opened at 48 ½ and was bet up to 49 ½. It’s still hovering in that neighborhood.

Path to the Super Bowl

-- Patriots beat the Ravens, 35-31 as seven-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Patriots knocked out the Colts, 45-7 as seven-point favorites in the Conference Championship

-- Seahawks dropped the Panthers, 31-14 as 13 ½-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Seahawks rallied past the Packers, 28-22 as 8 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

Super Bowl History

New England has appeared in seven Super Bowls and have gone 3-4 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. All three of the victories by the Patriots were by three points. The ‘under’ is 4-3.


Patriots Super Bowl History

Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVI Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -2.5 (53) Giants 21 Patriots 17 Underdog-Under
XLII Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -12 (55) Giants 17 Patriots 14 Underdog-Under
XXIX Patriots vs. Eagles Patriots -7 (46.5) Patriots 24 Eagles 21 Underdog-Under
XXXVIII Patriots vs. Panthers Patriots -7 (37.5) Patriots 32 Panthers 29 Underdog-Over
XXXVI Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams -14 (53) Patriots 20 Rams 17 Underdog-Under
XXXI Packers vs. Patriots Packers -14 (49) Packers 35 Patriots 21 Push-Over
XX Bears vs. Patriots Bears -10 (37.5) Bears 46 Patriots 10 Favorite-Over


Seattle has played in two Super Bowls, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The ‘over/under’ is 1-1.

Seattle Super Bowl History

Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVIII Seahawks vs. Broncos Broncos -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over
XL Steelersvs. Seahawks Steelers -4 (47) Steelers 21 Seahawks 10 Favorite-Under


Head-to-Head History (2008-2014)

2012 - Seattle (+4) 24 vs. New England 23 - OVER 42.5
2008 - New England (-7.5) 24 at Seattle 21 - OVER 43

ATS Records

New England: 10-8
Seattle: 11-7

On the Road

New England: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Seattle: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS

Total (O/U) Records

New England: 11-7
Seattle: 10-8

Recent Super Bowl Trends

History

-- Underdogs have covered six of the past seven Super Bowls, including outright victories the last three seasons by the Seahawks, Ravens and Giants.

-- Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 10-3 record against the spread.

-- The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four Super Bowls.

-- This will be the 3rd Super Bowl played in Arizona.
XLII - N.Y. Giants 17 (+13.5) New England 14
XXX – Dallas 27 (-13.5) Pittsburgh 17

Tony Appz

15* Seattle NFL PK (Game Of The Year) (Vegas Insider)

freddy wills


seahawks+2 5.5*


sea + 8/unda 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser

Dave Essler

2* Patriots pk

Stu Feiner Fantasy Casino play

1000 Units Seattle

100 Units Under

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]New England vs. Seattle[/h] The Patriots head to Super Bowl XLIX to face a Seahawks team that is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1)..Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

Philly Godfather

UNDER 1H 24.5

Prop Plays from Mike Anthony

OVER 3.5 TD's for Tom Brady +600

Goodfella

3* Triple Dime Dominator Patriots

​Sportswagers

Super Bowl XLIX
Seattle +100 over New England

In a one-game, winner take all, anything can happen. Unlike the other major sports, where playoffs and championships are won in the best four out of seven, the NFL decides its winner with one game. Again, anything can happen and there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which team will turn it over more, which team fumbles on the 1-yard line or which team gets more calls (penalties) than the other, etc., etc. It’s for that reason that we insist on backing the team that offers up more value and in this case it’s the Seahawks. How do we come to that conclusion? Well, in the third quarter in New England’s victory over Indianapolis there were some off-shore books that put up a Super Bowl line. They opened the Seahawks as a 2½-point favorite but as New England racked up points, that line started coming down. By the end of the game, a 45-7 Patriots blowout, the money started pouring in on the Pats. Again, one game in which anything could have happened and if New England had won by 7 or less, Seattle would still be favored. When you combine New England’s 38-point win over Indy with Seattle’s miracle victory over Green Bay, you have an overreaction on the Patriots. That’s value.

All week you are going to read and hear about Bill Belichick being the best coach in the history of this game. Most are going to insist that you do not bet against Belichick and Tom Brady when they have two weeks to prepare. The Patriots use more formations in more ways than any other team in the NFL and it's a pure guess as to how they will use those formations in the Super Bowl. In the playoff game against the Ravens, Brady passed for 367 yards and three touchdowns on a day New England ran the ball only 13 times for 14 yards. One week later in the AFC Championship Game, LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards on 30 carries, including three touchdowns against the Colts while Brady passed for 226 yards. It’s near impossible to prepare for New England’s offense but that doesn’t concern us because Seattle’s defense is capable of stopping anyone while New England’s is not. Seattle held Philadelphia to 14 points in Week 13. That was Philly’s lowest point total of the season. Last week against Green Bay, Seattle turned the ball over five times and held the Packers to 28 points after most of those turnovers came deep inside their own end. When New England lost to Green Bay back in Week 13, the Pats had zero turnovers and Green Bay scored 26 points. No chance of the Seahawks turning it over five times again. Throw out those five turnovers and 28 points allowed last week and Seattle has held its last seven opponents to 3, 3, 14 (Philly), 7, 6, 6 and 17 points. That’s defense and we all know that defense wins championships.

Seattle’s defense ranked first almost right across the board this season while New England’s ranked in the middle of the pack. The Seahawk’s offense actually played one of their worst games of the season last week so it’s not likely to see them that lethargic again. When we look at New England’s schedule this year, we see a ton of easy games against the Jets (twice), Minnesota, Chicago, Oakland, Miami (twice) and Buffalo (twice). That’s nine games. New England also lost to Kansas City, Miami, Green Bay and Buffalo (in Week 17 in a meaningless game). New England’s most impressive victory was probably a 43-21 win over Peyton Manning and the Broncos, the team Seattle rolled in last year’s Super Bowl, 43-8. It's interesting to note that we saw the same thing a year ago, as Seattle was the favorite on the advance line over Denver before all the early money came in on the AFC champion that won convincingly while the Seahawks had a much harder test.

We’re not underestimating the Patriots in any way. They are going to be way tougher than Denver was last year and that’s not a bold statement by any stretch. That said, the public is either underestimating the Seahawks or overvaluing the Patriots and that’s where we step in. Seattle is capable of winning where it counts most and that’s at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Give us the better defense in the biggest game and that’s a bet we’re going to make almost every time, just like we did in last year’s Super Bowl by playing Seattle outright. If New England wins, it will very likely need all four quarters to subdue an opponent poised to play its best game. The Seahawks enjoy several favorable matchups, though, and there's sufficient likelihood that those edges will take their toll by the end of the game for us to see value in the underdog price.

RECOMMENDATION: Since we’re playing the Seahawks on the money line, it really doesn’t matter if we wait but we may as well take the best price possible. We’re definitely going to wait on this line because the millions of dollars that will be wagered have not been placed yet. Once the money comes pouring in, we’re anticipating the line to move on our favor. By next Sunday, we may even be looking at +2 or +115 so the recommendation is to wait for a better number on Seattle. We’ll update our pick as soon as we bet it.

Wunderdog Sports

Comp Pick
Game: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (101/102)
Time: Sunday 02/01 6:30 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Straight Unanswered = YES -205 at Diamond (risk 1.5 to win 0.73)

it's the Super Bowl. The two teams that made it here are deserving and great. They are probably at least relatively evenly matched. If you asked 10 of your friends whether one of the two teams will score three straight times without the other team scoring, probably eight of them would say "no way!" Your gut tells you that one team scoring back-to-back-to-back unanswered just isn't likely to happen. That's why most people bet the NO on this prop. it's also why the oddsmakers end up shading the line. They likely know that they are offering great odds on the YES bet but since most of their action is on the other side, they are ok with it. That leaves a great opportunity for us to take advantage. The reality is that in 48 Super Bowls, there have been 35 games in which one or both of the teams scored three straight times unanswered during the game. That comes out to 72.9% of the time. Fair odds on a 73% bet are -270. So, getting -205 on this bet has value. Take the YES and look forward to winning this bet three out of every four times you place it.

Fezzik

Double Dime - Seattle +1

Sixth Sense

Seattle +1

Comp Super Bowl props from Northcoast Sports:


1. Will there be a defensive or special teams TD? YES (+160)


2. Will Tom Brady complete OVER 262.5 passing yards? YES (-110)

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20

root SEATTLE

Fezzik 2 * under 24 total 1H