Super Bowl Prop Thread - Helping each other out

swirv · Jan 21, 2015

We've got two weeks to find some value in some of these props. Great opportunity to post and share anything anyone comes up with on any angles to some of the props out there.

Here is Menzel singing the national anthem for the 2014 all star game around 1:58. Its currently set at 2:02.5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lEI_b6OMAc

I'll post whatever I come up with in here. Had a great week last week, but you all know that the SB is the biggest game for props, so let's see what you all come up with for value. If you find something post why or some kind of justification for the bet.

HotRocks · Jan 21, 2015

Please add the prop number too, that really helps

I've already played this one, thinking it could be a tight game

3378 Winning margin under 4½ points +169

ML Dog · Jan 21, 2015

yay!!!

odds are not current, just wanted to toss the graphic to sorta like champagne bottle to side of ship anoint the thread...lets rock this.

Anthem is worth a close look. Indina Menzel went, like, 2:05ish at this past all star-game I got it at OV 2:02 with a Local not sure where its at online but will maybe do more if its closer to the 2:01 mark...I guess John Legend will be accompanying, not sure but her early anthems were alot faster, shes evolved to a much slower sultry anthem & my expetation is NFL will want a long patriotic anthem for the pageantry and Idina is certainly capable of 2:07 easily.

John Legend may be accompanying her though which is so is a total wild card.

good luck to all.

TomandJerry · Jan 22, 2015

Idina Menzel - 2015 Super Bowl - How Long Will it Take her to Sing the National Anthem (From first singing note starts until she completes singing Brave)
O 122.5

Patriots vs Seahawks - Will Either Team Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game
NO.

Patriots Total Points - Patriots vs Seahawks
U 25.5

Patriots vs Seahawks - Longest Touchdown of the Game
O45.5

M Lynch Over 125 Receiving + Rushing Yards +160

TomandJerry · Jan 22, 2015

like the Pats win this game, take this instead

R Wilson Over 1.5 Interceptions Thrown +350

R Wilson Over 50 Rushing Yards +145

Also I have a question on this prop
R Wilson to Score a Rushing TD and Seattle Seahawks Wins Game ??? Is it any rushing touchdown count or have to be the last touch down that bring the trophy for the Sea hawks?

ML Dog · Jan 22, 2015

swirv said:
Menzel singing the national anthem for the 2014 all star game around 1:58. Its currently set at 2:02.5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lEI_b6OMAc

Oh, you're right her most recent (MLB All-Star Game) was more near 1:58 than the "2:05"ish I posted above. Over might be less easy than I thought when grabbing that 2:02 lol. I timed her off the DailyMotion vid I'll post below. Looked like solid 2:01 to me...on second look.

Whatever the case, I do like the over 2:02 but like OVer 2:02.5 a whole lot less not enthused about laying that "hook" on an anthem LOL.

I'll look at this further if action comes in on the over bringing this down. Would Love 2:01 but likely won't see it.

John Legend is gonna do "America The Beautiful". Article I read said "accompanying" Idina, made it sound like (which I thought would be cool really) they were gonna do a duet on the Anthem, like, alternating parts....duh.

Hopefully we can find better than 2:02.5....for those that like the OVer anyways. For me OVer or No Play as earlier anthems Idina did were well below 2:00 (or even 1:58) so as said about I feel she has evolved to a slower more sultry anthem + the idea that NFL would want a rapid anthem seems ridiculous to me.

Viewership at all time highs seasonlong....NFL "milking" the hugeness & working the "pageantry" of the whole thing is all that makes sense to me personally.

trytrytry has, for the last couple years, had an Anthem thread here on RX. Perhaps that returns.

bodyforlife · Jan 22, 2015

As Hot Rocks stated, unless you put the prop number, you're going to drive people crazy. There are way too many props to try to look up everyone of these.

Bl0wnAway · Jan 22, 2015

Value props so far
1073 Team to score last wins game No +160
235 Team to have most turnovers Patriots -110
230 Team to have most penalties Seahawks -115
1004 First score field goal or safety +130
6007 Player to score first LeGarrette Blount +1000

Will probably take the under on the anthem since that line is always inflated. The one wild card you can't prepare for is the choreography to lights/planes/choppers that might take valuable seconds away from Menzels shrill f'ing voice

cashducats · Jan 22, 2015

Ba‘al Zəvûv;10954637 said:
Oh, you're right her most recent (MLB All-Star Game) was more near 1:58 than the "2:05"ish I posted above. Over might be less easy than I thought when grabbing that 2:02 lol. I timed her off the DailyMotion vid I'll post below. Looked like solid 2:01 to me...on second look.

Whatever the case, I do like the over 2:02 but like OVer 2:02.5 a whole lot less not enthused about laying that "hook" on an anthem LOL.

I'll look at this further if action comes in on the over bringing this down. Would Love 2:01 but likely won't see it.

John Legend is gonna do "America The Beautiful". Article I read said "accompanying" Idina, made it sound like (which I thought would be cool really) they were gonna do a duet on the Anthem, like, alternating parts....duh.

Hopefully we can find better than 2:02.5....for those that like the OVer anyways. For me OVer or No Play as earlier anthems Idina did were well below 2:00 (or even 1:58) so as said about I feel she has evolved to a slower more sultry anthem + the idea that NFL would want a rapid anthem seems ridiculous to me.

Viewership at all time highs seasonlong....NFL "milking" the hugeness & working the "pageantry" of the whole thing is all that makes sense to me personally.

trytrytry has, for the last couple years, had an Anthem thread here on RX. Perhaps that returns.

LOL! 1:10 that's ugly

3pointdog · Jan 22, 2015

cashducats said:
LOL! 1:10 that's ugly

funny, like a lizard... who can blow me of course...!

ML Dog · Jan 22, 2015

Bl0wnAway said:
Value props so far
1073 Team to score last wins game No +160
235 Team to have most turnovers Patriots -110
230 Team to have most penalties Seahawks -115
1004 First score field goal or safety +130
6007 Player to score first LeGarrette Blount +1000

Will probably take the under on the anthem since that line is always inflated. The one wild card you can't prepare for is the choreography to lights/planes/choppers that might take valuable seconds away from Menzels shrill f'ing voice

Yes. I may be an excellent FADE on this anthem thing, hindsight is leading me to believe LMFAO as I compulsively grabbed that OV 2:02 cuz I thought she came in 2:05ish after first watching the vid (I am "math" challenged lol) so be careful.

I expect us to see discussion here about Value existing with

"more points scored in 2nd half"

I think your: 230 Team to have most penalties Seahawks -115 is +EV

ML Dog · Jan 22, 2015

Tom and Jerry said:
Also I have a question on this prop: R Wilson to Score a Rushing TD and Seattle Seahawks Wins Game

Is it any rushing touchdown count or have to be the last touch down that bring the trophy for the Seahawks?

You'd have to ask whatever book is offering it to know with certainty. That wording could have it being either.

swirv · Jan 22, 2015

Wilson prop mentioned should not be last td. Just that he has to score a rushing td and they win

ML Dog · Jan 22, 2015

swirv said:
Wilson prop mentioned should not be last td. Just that he has to score a rushing td and they win

Thats what I'd think but before I bet it I'd confirm with the book and if an online book do that via a way I could have written record of clarification (email or online help screenshot) because props have been worded like this before so they can grade as LOSS then reverse 'n payout only to those who contact them and complain.

There are Snakes on this damn plane.

swirv · Jan 22, 2015

So hot in Arizona so sleeves cut seems good. Still -150 at some has moved to -190 at others.

swirv · Jan 22, 2015

PLayer props seem pretty tight. Usually easy to bet the NE props based on the match up but Seattle is so good on both sides of the ball. Not certain NE comes out passing like they normally do vs good rushing defensive teams

ML Dog · Jan 23, 2015

swirv said:
So hot in Arizona so sleeves cut seems good. Still -150 at some has moved to -190 at others.

Its not hot in Arizona in February.

Unless a storm brings in unusually cold weather temp at game time will be around 71 degrees. The Stadium has a retractable roof. NFL says it plans to keep the roof open but if there is a sign of inclement weather, the roof will be shut.

After the heat of Controversy Belichick has been embroiled in do you think he is gonna show up sleeves cut like a badass looking like a character out of the movie Deliverance?

Or does it feel more like he might play it Low Key, shoot for a bit more normal look and show up with some sleeves on his hoodie?

Sleeves Cut and especially at -190 or even at -150 for that matter seems to me way too expensive with the possibility the NFL (and even Belichick himself) may feel like a less "in your face" clothing style might be more appropriate this time around.

Gray with Sleeves is what I am personally feeling but I'm not real good at this stuff, beyond the anthem which I've done well with in the past. This year the anthem is gonna be a close call, no clear strong angle there for me yet. The small play I have on it may be all I do with that.

Other types of Props I've been hit and miss so, nothing spectacular really so looking for input to see if we can hammer out a few great serious +EV props.

I'm wondering if the sleeves thing could be one of them. Is he really gonna have the cajones to show up with hacked off sleeves after all this cheating crap this week? "Feel" will be better nearer to game time I suppose, just thots to consider.

In case FIELD CONDITIONS are a consideration to any one on props they see...GOOD TRACK

...the stadium has a movable Natural Grass field that is the only one of its kind in the U.S.

The field slides inside and outside with an intricate set of rails, motors and wheels. It is frequently voted by players around the league as their favorite playing surface. The field remains outside about 350 days a year and is wheeled indoors for games.

swirv · Jan 23, 2015

The hoodie itself already looks like crap. I dont think he cares too much or is suddenly going to change his style because the Pats are under some heat

swirv · Jan 23, 2015

The only thing that stood out in initial look at player props was Blount under 4.5 receiving -115

swirv · Jan 23, 2015

Like Blount again at 10-1 for first TD. Great value on it

Super Bowl Prop Thread - Helping each other out

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