E$PN In$ider: Week's best college hoops bets?

gremlin · Jan 27, 2015

If someone with an insider account could post this article that would be awesome.

http://insider.espn.go.com/chalk/st...-notre-dame-week-top-games-college-basketball

Thankyou)(&

Defying · Jan 27, 2015

With Super Bowl XLIX nearly upon us, the public eye is soon to shift to college basketball. Already, conference play has given handicappers a new beginning, with many adjusting their power ratings as the competition gets tougher and more is learned about every team.
Each Tuesday and Friday on ESPN Insider, I'll give you picks on the biggest games of the week and weekend.
Here's a look at West Virginia-Kansas State, Duke-Notre Dame and other big matchups this week.
Note: Lines and totals for Wednesday and Thursday games are projections.

[h=3]Tuesday[/h]No. 17 West Virginia Mountaineers (+1.5) at Kansas State Wildcats, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
West Virginia (16-3, 4-2 Big 12) is forcing turnovers at a ridiculous rate (30.7 percent) but deficiencies scoring and defending in the half court have surfaced of late. Teams have started to key in on Juwan Staten (33 percent on field goals versus Big 12 teams) which puts the onus on creating turnovers, transition buckets and getting to the free throw line. To their credit, the Mountaineers do those things extremely well, but you can only bank on them so much, particularly on the road against comparable competition. Look what went down at Texas: four fast-break points, Staten was held to three points and the end result was a 27-point blowout loss.<offer></offer>
Kansas State (12-8, 5-2) isn't a one-man show. Three players average double-digits while five others see minutes, but Marcus Foster is the key. He was in Bruce Weber's doghouse at the start of Big 12 play but has since returned to averaging over 15 PPG during the Wildcats' current 5-1 run. Considering its slow pace and offensive deficiencies, Foster's scoring has a huge impact on KSU's results.
Nonconference play is recent enough that it still impacts where teams stand among power raters, oddsmakers and the betting markets. Kansas State looked bad during November and December with losses to Long Beach State, Pittsburgh and Texas Southern. West Virginia, meanwhile, beat who it was supposed to beat in impressive fashion, and suffered perfectly acceptable losses to LSU and Iowa State. That said, it is very apparent that there isn't 40-50 teams worth of difference between these two squads, like the gap we see in KenPom and Sagarin ratings. Bettors appear to have spotted exactly that, taking Kansas State from a pick-'em to minus-1.5/-2. I agree with the move.
ATS pick: Kansas State

No. 20 Baylor Bears (+4) at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPNEWS)
With limited depth and size, Oklahoma State (13-6, 3-4 Big 12) is left needing to "muddy up" games in order to compete, something Travis Ford and his players have openly embraced. With the exception of a blowout loss at Oklahoma, all of OSU's Big 12 games have been slow-paced and low-scoring. The Cowboys commit an awful lot to the defensive end of the floor and take a hope-for-the-best approach offensively. Their best win, 69-58 over Texas, was due in large part to a 9-of-17 (53 percent) effort from 3-point range. That's not something bettors can regularly rely on.
What we can rely on is the Cowboys defending. And at home, you could make a case for them being the more capable offensive team, with Baylor (15-4, 3-3) failing to top a point per possession in any of its three previous conference road games. Like Oklahoma State, the Bears come and go offensively with no real identity other than to chuck it up and go get it off the glass (42 percent offensive rebound rate versus the Big 12); that could be the X factor here. The Cowboys are not very big with Le'Bryan Nash (6-foot-7) and Michael Cobbins (6-8) -- all they have in the paint -- hence the team's league-worst minus-3.6 rebounding margin in Big 12 play. Baylor, meanwhile, is tied with Kansas for the league lead at plus-5.5 in that category. The extra offensive chances for Baylor and one-and-done trips for Oklahoma State suggest there is some value with the road underdog at plus-4.
Pick: Baylor

[h=3]Wednesday[/h]No. 4 Duke Blue Devils at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Projected line: Duke +3.5
Following back-to-back losses to NC State and Miami, Duke (17-2, 4-2 ACC) has fired back with three straight wins. Much was made about the Blue Devils' switch to a 2-3 zone, and while they may continue to use it some moving forward, they won because of better effort and the fact Louisville, Pittsburgh and St. John's are notoriously poor outside shooting teams. Notre Dame (19-2, 7-1) does not fit that description. In fact, practically every metric grades out the Irish's offense as the best in the country. Yes, the schedule comes up a little light, but they have remarkably averaged over a point per possession in all 21 games -- including against Virginia's vaunted stop unit.
Unlike a vast majority of college basketball, both Duke and Notre Dame score at a high clip because they have inside-outside balance. Notre Dame forward Zach Auguste is shooting north of 60 percent from the floor, which allows driving lanes for Jerian Grant and wide-open 3s forPat Connaughton (45 percent) and Demetrius Jackson (44 percent). It's a similar situation for the Blue Devils with Jahlil Okafor (67 percent) commanding double-teams, leaving the rest of the team (37 percent from 3-point range) with open looks.
Bettors should be aware that Notre Dame's offensive numbers aren't sustainable, but it's likely going to take a road trip against a physical defense (see: at Louisville on March 4) for a major hiccup. And like Duke, the Irish aren't exactly a lockdown defensive club (1.05 points per possession allowed versus ACC), which makes it tricky to lay anything beyond minus-4.5 or minus-5 in this spot. Note also that despite Notre Dame's straight-up record (19-2) and incredible offensive output, the Irish sport a rather mediocre 7-6 ATS record. They were catching plus-5.5 in last season's 79-77 home win over Duke but this time around, they'll be in that range as a deserving, but limited value, favorite.
Pick: Pass

[h=3]Thursday[/h]No. 16 Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Projected total: 140
While not completely sold on Ohio State (16-5, 5-3 Big Ten) I give Thad Matta credit for adjusting to his personnel. Aaron Craft was what I consider to be the biggest "under" player in college basketball last season. He was methodical with the ball and made life extremely uncomfortable for opposing point guards. With Craft gone, the Buckeyes have turned into the Big Ten's fastest team tempo-wise, led by super frosh D'Angelo Russell. They also don't play much in the way of defense (1.05 PPP allowed versus Big Ten). While oddsmakers have caught up to some degree, the Buckeyes continue to reward bettors with over-the-total winners, including three straight.
I'm a big fan of Maryland (18-3, 6-2 Big Ten) head coach Mark Turgeon, who, after ridding the program of some of ill-fitting players and inking stellar frosh Melo Trimble, has the Terps contending for a Big Ten crown. They've bought into Turgeon's defense-first ways and it's paid off with wins and covers against Iowa State and Michigan State (twice). And I don't think this squad has even scratched the surface of what it can be offensively. The Terrapins are shooting a ghastly 41 percent from 2-point range through eight Big Ten games and yet trail only Wisconsin in the standings.
After getting run out of the gym at Indiana (89-70) in their last road game, look for the Terps to put extra emphasis on transition defense against the Buckeyes. It can be tough to dictate tempo on the road but Turgeon doesn't want a track meet. We'll look to play this game under the total at 140 or more.
Pick: Under

Defying · Jan 27, 2015

gremlin i don't mind posting but if you always find yourself wanting insider access, do a search for discount ESPN subscription.. i think i got mine for less than 10dollars for the year... and then once you get the magazine it comes with free insider by just typing in your subscription number.

Betallsports · Jan 27, 2015

Defying said:
gremlin i don't mind posting but if you always find yourself wanting insider access, do a search for discount ESPN subscription.. i think i got mine for less than 10dollars for the year... and then once you get the magazine it comes with free insider by just typing in your subscription number.

Regular price is like $35 for the year including the Magazine. Think I paid 50% off, have had for the past 5 years

gremlin · Jan 27, 2015

Defying said:
gremlin i don't mind posting but if you always find yourself wanting insider access, do a search for discount ESPN subscription.. i think i got mine for less than 10dollars for the year... and then once you get the magazine it comes with free insider by just typing in your subscription number.

Yea, I had one for 10+ years since the early 2000's and recently switched from ESPN The Mag to Sports Illustrated and didn't realize how much I'd miss my Insider access online! I plan on re-subscribing soon. I really appreciate you posting Insider articles in the meantime though.

Defying · Jan 28, 2015

gremlin said:
Yea, I had one for 10+ years since the early 2000's and recently switched from ESPN The Mag to Sports Illustrated and didn't realize how much I'd miss my Insider access online! I plan on re-subscribing soon. I really appreciate you posting Insider articles in the meantime though.

no problem.. and my 2 cents ESPN mag >>> SI

I think ESPN magazine best sports magazine out there. great journalism. they needmore stuff like this on the tv

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