4 reasons why SEA will win the Super Bowl

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]The Ground Game[/h]This year, the Seahawks had the most efficient rushing attack in the league, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics. Their Adjusted Rushing NEP per carry (0.18) was 0.12 points per play better than the second-best team in the league (Kansas City, 0.06). That edge was actually bigger than the one between Kansas City, at second, and Arizona, who ranked 26th in the league (-0.05).
The Seahawks, in fact, posted the second-highest Adjusted Rushing NEP per play since 2000 behind only the 2011 Carolina Panthers (0.19).
Russell Wilson led the league in Rushing NEP this year (60.50) (Cam Newton was second at 38.74). Marshawn Lynch led all running backs and was fourth in the league at 27.34.
New England ranked just 17th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play (0.00), so it's an exploitable matchup in favor of Seattle who was the second-most run-heavy team in the NFL this regular season.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]The Shut-Down Pass Defense[/h]Everybody knows of Richard Sherman, but the Seattle secondary is much more than just a single cornerback.
The Seahawks ranked third in the league in pass defense, per our metrics, and although some felt they feasted on sub-par competition, they were actually just really, really good this year. The Patriots' pass offense ranked fifth in the league, per our metrics, and slowing down this passing attack will be crucial for Seattle to keep the New England offense off the field.
Even though it took a very improbable comeback to defeat the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks held Aaron Rodgers to just 171 yards on 34 attempts, intercepting him twice, once on a glorious Sherman interception in the end zone, and another by Byron Maxwell on the Seattle 26 yardline.
They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer all season -- including the post-season -- and have allowed just four games with more than 240 yards passing. New England's biggest threat on offense is the pass, and Seattle has the recipe to stifle it. The Pats should be able to complete passes underneath, but big plays might be hard to find.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

[h=3]The Stifling Run Defense[/h]Nothing groundbreaking here: Seattle's defense is both great and well-balanced.
Their per-play run metrics ranked third in the league this year -- same as their pass defense -- and the Patriots' biggest gameplan of attacking a defense's weakness will be diminished, as the Seattle defense is equally tough to beat.
Seattle's Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play (-0.10) is the 11th-best mark of any team in the last five seasons. New England managed only 14 rushing yards on 13 attempts against the Ravens, who ranked second in run defense per our metrics, in the Divisional Round of the playoffs while playing from behind. But in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots rushed for 177 yards with a lead on the 16th-ranked Colts.
Establishing the run -- whether ahead or not -- could prove tricky for the Patriots, and the inability to grind it out (among many, many other things) cost the Packers a trip to the Super Bowl.
Even though the attention will be on the secondary in Seattle, the elite front-seven will be just as big a factor in keeping the game close and possibly swinging it in Seattle's favor.

Defying · Jan 29, 2015

Wilson finished this season ranked 15th in Passing NEP. He was 16th on a per-drop back basis. In his last 10 games, Wilson is averaging just 228.3 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions passing -- passable numbers.
But Wilson isn't just a passer: he's a total threat.
In those last 10 games, Wilson is averaging 50.3 yards on the ground, good for a 6.3 yards-per-carry average.
As you already know, Wilson's rushing metrics were tops in the NFL this season, but Wilson's Total NEP (combining Passing NEP, Rushing NEP, and Reception NEP) was ninth-best among quarterbacks, and he has never finished a season outside the top 10 in Total NEP.
The Seattle season looked to be waning when he struggled mightily against the Packers and was playing about 17 points below his normal expectation, but his turnaround helped mount one of the least probable comebacks in NFL history.
Without stud wide receivers to key on, the 17th-ranked Patriots run defense will be able to focus on Lynch. A second consecutive Super Bowl title might very well be on the arm and legs of Wilson.

Betallsports · Jan 29, 2015

Defying said:
The Shut-Down Pass Defense

Everybody knows of Richard Sherman, but the Seattle secondary is much more than just a single cornerback.
The Seahawks ranked third in the league in pass defense, per our metrics, and although some felt they feasted on sub-par competition, they were actually just really, really good this year. The Patriots' pass offense ranked fifth in the league, per our metrics, and slowing down this passing attack will be crucial for Seattle to keep the New England offense off the field.
Even though it took a very improbable comeback to defeat the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks held Aaron Rodgers to just 171 yards on 34 attempts, intercepting him twice, once on a glorious Sherman interception in the end zone, and another by Byron Maxwell on the Seattle 26 yardline.
They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer all season -- including the post-season -- and have allowed just four games with more than 240 yards passing. New England's biggest threat on offense is the pass, and Seattle has the recipe to stifle it. The Pats should be able to complete passes underneath, but big plays might be hard to find.

Lets see see how good they are when dealing with a lot of Gonk at 6'6" and 265

will be a great match-up with the speed of the pats WR's to watch.

this game is going to be Fun to watch as a whole.

MattyMatt · Jan 29, 2015

I see Seattle having a very rough time passing the ball. It doesn't matter how good Lynch is when that happens...

Patriots in a blowout...

Vlad the Impaler · Jan 29, 2015

Let me see if I have this right. The Seahawks have the best run game in the NFL, the best secondary, the overall best defense, and people want to consider Russell Wilson an elite qb. How are they not 18-0.

wilbur · Jan 29, 2015

Two reasons the Seahawks lose.
1 Bill Bellicheck
2 Tom Brady

wilbur · Jan 29, 2015

If you need a third??? Gronk

Mr_Mark · Jan 29, 2015

Betallsports said:
Lets see see how good they are when dealing with a lot of Gonk at 6'6" and 265

will be a great match-up with the speed of the pats WR's to watch.

this game is going to be Fun to watch as a whole.

wilbur said:
If you need a third??? Gronk

Sea D struggled against TEs this season.. Gronk was #1 TE this year... he maybe a good bet for Super Bowl MVP

GoSooners · Jan 29, 2015

wilbur said:
Two reasons the Seahawks lose.
1 Bill Bellicheck
2 Tom Brady

And a very quick NE locker room attendant...

Betallsports · Jan 29, 2015

Mr_Mark said:
Sea D struggled against TEs this season.. Gronk was #1 TE this year... he maybe a good bet for Super Bowl MVP

Call it whatever you want... Seachickens D was exposed against GB, it's just GB fucked up at the end and fell apart ..
That won't happen vs. NE, which Overall is a better team than the packers.

and Yes Gronk will be all over the place. They will line him up just about anywhere. even at the WR position ..and if they plan on throwing 2 guys on him, that leaves NE's Speedy WR's open.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jan 29, 2015

Seahawks all night long.....

Cheaters never win or prosper.....lol

4 reasons why SEA will win the Super Bowl

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