[h=1]Home court's effect on NBA betting[/h][h=3]Which pro basketball teams are better to bet on the road? Plus, other trends[/h]
By Kevin Pelton and Erin Rynning | ESPN Insider
As ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh broke down with Dr. Steve Ilardi, home-court advantage is down in the NBA. While that has ramifications for teams and the league, it's also relevant to gamblers. According to Covers.com, road teams have covered 52.4 percent of the time this season. Is there still value in betting road teams? NBA Insider Kevin Pelton and Insider gambling expert Erin Rynning break down the numbers.
Kevin Pelton: Erin, how does Vegas go about accounting for home-court advantage? Does that number fluctuate over time with unexpected results as we've seen this season?
Erin Rynning: I'm not exactly sure how home-court advantage<offer> is accounted for at the present time by the lines makers. It's obviously evolved over time. Many years ago I would assume more of a standard home-court advantage number was used, but it's evolved to a model or computer number that should fluctuate to a small degree. I certainly stress the marketplace will make the correction in the way games are bet before the lines makers adjust an opening number. Personally, the majority of my side bets have fallen with away teams and I've featured that trend for many years.
</offer>
KP: It looks from the numbers that the trend may be changing. Covers.com indicates that over the past week away teams have won just 34 percent of the time against the spread, and road favorites are a dismal 5-15 (25 percent). Is it possible there's been an overcorrection?
ER: I would say it's simply a correction in randomness. There are always cycles in a season where the home-court edge is more and less pronounced due to short-term randomness. Just as there's short-term randomness in league scoring. There's no question that home-court value is diminishing for argued reasons, however the rate this season was due for a correction to the home court. I would expect at the end of the season, we'll have home teams winning at a higher rate than the current 55.5 percent. The ATS results will correlate to a degree as well.
KP: That does appear to be the case, digging into the numbers. The differences between straight-up and ATS performance for road teams and road favorites isn't really much different than the course of the season. They're just winning fewer of those games -- which, as you said, is mostly noise.
My best guess, based on current league imbalance and the long-term trend toward lower home-court advantage, is that home teams will win about 58 percent of the time the rest of the season, which was last year's final figure. Is that fair?
[h=4]NBA teams' ATS record on road, 2014-15 season[/h]
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ER: If home teams win at a 58 percent clip the rest of the season, that would bring the season-to-date home team win percentage to 56 percent after 1,230 regular-season games. I would certainly bet that after the regular season the home team win percentage will be closer to 56 percent than what we have now (55.5 percent). As away teams have covered the spread roughly 52.5 percent of the time, that number will likely trend slightly lower as well.
Maybe better stated: If you want to make a million dollars blindly betting road teams in the NBA the rest of the season, good luck with that! Again, there's certainly a significant move toward road teams, as I personally feel fewer free throws and more efficient travel are the main factors.
KP: Are there specific teams that you consider good values to bet on the road because of their track record?
ER: This is a tricky question because it's so easy to back-fit what's trended this season. The Milwaukee Bucks are a team that I've done extremely well with betting on the road. They've been such a tremendous defensive team, and with their length and hard double-teams, it would seem their style of defense will play well on any basketball court. I've always thought that defense travels well. In addition, their home court (the BMO Harris Bradley Center) is such a dead place. Low attendance and low energy don't give them much of a home edge, although with an exciting young team and winning basketball this should change moving forward.
A team like the Philadelphia 76ers would fit that profile to a certain extent moving forward this season. No question, this team has improved immensely on defense this season. The Wells Fargo Center plays out pretty much as the Bradley Center does for the Bucks. For a franchise that probably doesn't want to win as many games as possible, the average point spread on the road to at home is about an extra 5-point difference this year, meaning you can catch an average of plus-13 on the road to plus-8 at home.
<offer></offer>
KP: To reinforce your point, generally the differences in how teams play at home and on the road over the first half of the season are simply noise. Over extended periods, the teams that play at altitude (the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz) offer the only true home-court advantages above and beyond the typical difference. But I do think teams with poor attendance are the best bets for having a smaller home-court edge, making them better on the road than their overall performance would indicate.
By Kevin Pelton and Erin Rynning | ESPN Insider
As ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh broke down with Dr. Steve Ilardi, home-court advantage is down in the NBA. While that has ramifications for teams and the league, it's also relevant to gamblers. According to Covers.com, road teams have covered 52.4 percent of the time this season. Is there still value in betting road teams? NBA Insider Kevin Pelton and Insider gambling expert Erin Rynning break down the numbers.
Kevin Pelton: Erin, how does Vegas go about accounting for home-court advantage? Does that number fluctuate over time with unexpected results as we've seen this season?
Erin Rynning: I'm not exactly sure how home-court advantage<offer> is accounted for at the present time by the lines makers. It's obviously evolved over time. Many years ago I would assume more of a standard home-court advantage number was used, but it's evolved to a model or computer number that should fluctuate to a small degree. I certainly stress the marketplace will make the correction in the way games are bet before the lines makers adjust an opening number. Personally, the majority of my side bets have fallen with away teams and I've featured that trend for many years.
</offer>
KP: It looks from the numbers that the trend may be changing. Covers.com indicates that over the past week away teams have won just 34 percent of the time against the spread, and road favorites are a dismal 5-15 (25 percent). Is it possible there's been an overcorrection?
ER: I would say it's simply a correction in randomness. There are always cycles in a season where the home-court edge is more and less pronounced due to short-term randomness. Just as there's short-term randomness in league scoring. There's no question that home-court value is diminishing for argued reasons, however the rate this season was due for a correction to the home court. I would expect at the end of the season, we'll have home teams winning at a higher rate than the current 55.5 percent. The ATS results will correlate to a degree as well.
KP: That does appear to be the case, digging into the numbers. The differences between straight-up and ATS performance for road teams and road favorites isn't really much different than the course of the season. They're just winning fewer of those games -- which, as you said, is mostly noise.
My best guess, based on current league imbalance and the long-term trend toward lower home-court advantage, is that home teams will win about 58 percent of the time the rest of the season, which was last year's final figure. Is that fair?
[h=4]NBA teams' ATS record on road, 2014-15 season[/h]
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Bucks | 21 | 7 |
| Hawks | 19 | 7 |
| Celtics | 16 | 8 |
| Magic | 20 | 11 |
| Hornets | 14 | 8 |
| Pacers | 17 | 10 |
| Jazz | 16 | 11 |
| Raptors | 13 | 9 |
| Mavericks | 17 | 12 |
| Heat | 15 | 12 |
| Nets | 15 | 12 |
| Pelicans | 14 | 12 |
| Pistons | 14 | 12 |
| Bulls | 15 | 13 |
| T'Wolves | 13 | 12 |
| Warriors | 13 | 12 |
| Suns | 13 | 12 |
| Rockets | 13 | 13 |
| Spurs | 13 | 13 |
| Knicks | 12 | 12 |
| Blazers | 12 | 13 |
| Grizzlies | 12 | 13 |
| Kings | 11 | 13 |
| Lakers | 12 | 15 |
| Wizards | 10 | 15 |
| Clippers | 10 | 16 |
| Nuggets | 10 | 16 |
| 76ers | 10 | 16 |
| Cavaliers | 9 | 16 |
| Thunder | 10 | 18 |
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ER: If home teams win at a 58 percent clip the rest of the season, that would bring the season-to-date home team win percentage to 56 percent after 1,230 regular-season games. I would certainly bet that after the regular season the home team win percentage will be closer to 56 percent than what we have now (55.5 percent). As away teams have covered the spread roughly 52.5 percent of the time, that number will likely trend slightly lower as well.
Maybe better stated: If you want to make a million dollars blindly betting road teams in the NBA the rest of the season, good luck with that! Again, there's certainly a significant move toward road teams, as I personally feel fewer free throws and more efficient travel are the main factors.
KP: Are there specific teams that you consider good values to bet on the road because of their track record?
ER: This is a tricky question because it's so easy to back-fit what's trended this season. The Milwaukee Bucks are a team that I've done extremely well with betting on the road. They've been such a tremendous defensive team, and with their length and hard double-teams, it would seem their style of defense will play well on any basketball court. I've always thought that defense travels well. In addition, their home court (the BMO Harris Bradley Center) is such a dead place. Low attendance and low energy don't give them much of a home edge, although with an exciting young team and winning basketball this should change moving forward.
A team like the Philadelphia 76ers would fit that profile to a certain extent moving forward this season. No question, this team has improved immensely on defense this season. The Wells Fargo Center plays out pretty much as the Bradley Center does for the Bucks. For a franchise that probably doesn't want to win as many games as possible, the average point spread on the road to at home is about an extra 5-point difference this year, meaning you can catch an average of plus-13 on the road to plus-8 at home.
<offer></offer>
KP: To reinforce your point, generally the differences in how teams play at home and on the road over the first half of the season are simply noise. Over extended periods, the teams that play at altitude (the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz) offer the only true home-court advantages above and beyond the typical difference. But I do think teams with poor attendance are the best bets for having a smaller home-court edge, making them better on the road than their overall performance would indicate.
