[h=1]Best bets for the Daytona 500[/h][h=3]Quick tips, winners and futures bets ahead of the big race[/h]
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The Daytona 500 is the biggest race of the Sprint Cup season for drivers, fans, media and even betting interest. In terms of value, the biggest upside to betting on NASCAR is the extremely small handle compared to the major U.S. sports, and as a result sportsbooks aren't dedicating significant resources when setting lines. There are a handful of opportunities throughout the season for educated bettors to pick off soft lines and find value by getting money down at mispriced numbers.
However, when the Sprint Cup Series slaps on restrictor plates at Daytona and Talladega, horsepower is reduced to the point where cars don't have the ability to separate and drive away from each other. This results in large packs of cars racing within feet and even inches of each other for 500 miles, meaning one tiny mistake can wipe out 20 cars within seconds. Experienced NASCAR bettors understand the unpredictability this causes and minimize risk to bankrolls by wagering smaller units than they will at the 33 (including the Sprint Cup All-Star Race) non-restrictor plate races.
With bankroll preservation in mind, I've compiled a couple of quick tips to help bettors handicap the Daytona 500, including three futures bets that I believe have been mispriced by oddsmakers.
If analyzing only average finish, bettors miss out on how well this driver really performed before a parts failure took him/her out of the race. Therefore, it's important to instead review average running position to get a more complete picture of driver performance in a specific race or racetrack.<offer></offer>
The table below ranks the top 15 drivers in ARP over the past 10 points races at Daytona and includes current Daytona 500 futures from 5Dimes.
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In terms of ARP, Greg Biffle has been the top driver over the past 10 Sprint Cup races at Daytona. However, there are currently 16 drivers with better odds to win the 500 than Biffle. This screams value and is worth a small bet at this number.
The bet: Biffle to win the Daytona 500 (+4,400)
Looking at the numbers, the past 10 winners of the Daytona 500 have ranged from a starting position of fourth (Matt Kenseth in 2012) to 39th (Matt Kenseth in 2009). Moreover, three of the past 10 Daytona 500 winners have started 32nd or worse (Kevin Harvick in 2007, Kenseth in 2009 and Trevor Bayne in 2011), indicating just how meaningless starting position can be.
With the starting lineup for the 2015 Daytona 500 officially set, we can compare starting position to futures odds to determine which drivers are undervalued based on starting position alone.
Starting from back to front, it doesn't take long to zero in on the driver starting 42nd (of 43 cars): Denny Hamlin. In 2014 at Daytona, Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited and his Duel qualifying race, finished second in the Daytona 500 and sixth at the July Sprint Cup race.
At plus-1,400, Hamlin is undervalued when compared to the betting favorites and I can't come up with any reason why he's not included in that group except for a poor starting position.
The bet: Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 (+1,400)
The most impressive car in Thursday's Duel was clearly Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt started last in his qualifying race, quickly advanced through the field and ultimately won the race. Oddsmakers have clearly taken note and at plus-675, are forcing bettors to pay a premium to get a piece of the defending Daytona 500 champ. While this doesn't mean a bet on Earnhardt Jr. won't ultimately pay off, it's similar to betting the bad end of a steamed college football line. Sure, a 7-point favorite can still cover the spread after getting bet up from minus-4, but laying seven points in this scenario is taking the worst of the number.
Instead, I'm bypassing Junior and moving on to Kyle Busch, who is currently listed at a more palatable plus-1,350. Busch led the first portion of his Duel race before being slapped with a penalty for driving too fast on pit road. As a result, Kyle was forced to start at the tail end of the field during the following restart and quickly drove his way back to the front, ultimately finishing second in his Duel.
When analyzing the Duel for betting value, I'm always looking for drivers who are able to slice their cars through the field and Busch certainly proved capable of doing that Thursday night.
The bet: Kyle Busch to win the Daytona 500 (+1,350)
• Greg Biffle (+4,400)
• Denny Hamlin (+1,400)
• Kyle Busch (+1,350)
Remember, keep bankroll preservation in mind and play smaller units for a low-risk, high-reward Daytona 500.
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The Daytona 500 is the biggest race of the Sprint Cup season for drivers, fans, media and even betting interest. In terms of value, the biggest upside to betting on NASCAR is the extremely small handle compared to the major U.S. sports, and as a result sportsbooks aren't dedicating significant resources when setting lines. There are a handful of opportunities throughout the season for educated bettors to pick off soft lines and find value by getting money down at mispriced numbers.
However, when the Sprint Cup Series slaps on restrictor plates at Daytona and Talladega, horsepower is reduced to the point where cars don't have the ability to separate and drive away from each other. This results in large packs of cars racing within feet and even inches of each other for 500 miles, meaning one tiny mistake can wipe out 20 cars within seconds. Experienced NASCAR bettors understand the unpredictability this causes and minimize risk to bankrolls by wagering smaller units than they will at the 33 (including the Sprint Cup All-Star Race) non-restrictor plate races.
With bankroll preservation in mind, I've compiled a couple of quick tips to help bettors handicap the Daytona 500, including three futures bets that I believe have been mispriced by oddsmakers.
[h=3]1. Average running position > average finish[/h]Like on-base percentage is the new batting average, average running position (ARP) is the new average finish metric in NASCAR research. While average finish gives insight into how drivers finish races, it does very little to measure performance for an entire race. For example, a driver could spend the first 490 of 500 miles in the top 10, then blow an engine and be relegated to a 30th-place finish.If analyzing only average finish, bettors miss out on how well this driver really performed before a parts failure took him/her out of the race. Therefore, it's important to instead review average running position to get a more complete picture of driver performance in a specific race or racetrack.<offer></offer>
The table below ranks the top 15 drivers in ARP over the past 10 points races at Daytona and includes current Daytona 500 futures from 5Dimes.
| Rank | Driver | ARP | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| *The Sprint Unlimited and Duel races were not included in the data above. | |||
| 1 | Greg Biffle | 13.7 | +4400 |
| 2 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13.9 | +675 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 14.8 | +1350 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | +1400 |
| 5 | Matt Kenseth | 15.2 | +900 |
| 6 | Kasey Kahne | 15.4 | +3000 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 15.9 | +1500 |
| 8 | Kurt Busch | 16.8 | n/a |
| 9 | Jeff Gordon | 17.2 | +1100 |
| 10 | Reed Sorenson | 17.3 | n/a |
| 11 | Martin Truex Jr. | 17.5 | +4400 |
| T-13 | Clint Bowyer | 18.3 | +2800 |
| T-13 | Jamie McMurray | 18.3 | +2300 |
| 14 | Brad Keselowski | 18.6 | +1600 |
| 15 | Aric Almirola | 18.8 | +4400 |
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In terms of ARP, Greg Biffle has been the top driver over the past 10 Sprint Cup races at Daytona. However, there are currently 16 drivers with better odds to win the 500 than Biffle. This screams value and is worth a small bet at this number.
The bet: Biffle to win the Daytona 500 (+4,400)
[h=3]2. Starting position is overvalued at Daytona[/h]The draft makes it much easier to improve track position than at non-restrictor plate races. In fact, there's an argument to be made that starting toward the back can actually be an advantage as it keeps drivers out of harm's way should a big wreck occur among the lead pack of cars.Looking at the numbers, the past 10 winners of the Daytona 500 have ranged from a starting position of fourth (Matt Kenseth in 2012) to 39th (Matt Kenseth in 2009). Moreover, three of the past 10 Daytona 500 winners have started 32nd or worse (Kevin Harvick in 2007, Kenseth in 2009 and Trevor Bayne in 2011), indicating just how meaningless starting position can be.
With the starting lineup for the 2015 Daytona 500 officially set, we can compare starting position to futures odds to determine which drivers are undervalued based on starting position alone.
Starting from back to front, it doesn't take long to zero in on the driver starting 42nd (of 43 cars): Denny Hamlin. In 2014 at Daytona, Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited and his Duel qualifying race, finished second in the Daytona 500 and sixth at the July Sprint Cup race.
At plus-1,400, Hamlin is undervalued when compared to the betting favorites and I can't come up with any reason why he's not included in that group except for a poor starting position.
The bet: Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 (+1,400)
[h=3]3. Dissect the Duel[/h]The Duel represents two qualifying races that set the final starting lineup for the Daytona 500. These qualifying races, unique to the Daytona 500, allow bettors to watch and analyze live racing and are quite valuable when handicapping the Great American Race.The most impressive car in Thursday's Duel was clearly Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt started last in his qualifying race, quickly advanced through the field and ultimately won the race. Oddsmakers have clearly taken note and at plus-675, are forcing bettors to pay a premium to get a piece of the defending Daytona 500 champ. While this doesn't mean a bet on Earnhardt Jr. won't ultimately pay off, it's similar to betting the bad end of a steamed college football line. Sure, a 7-point favorite can still cover the spread after getting bet up from minus-4, but laying seven points in this scenario is taking the worst of the number.
Instead, I'm bypassing Junior and moving on to Kyle Busch, who is currently listed at a more palatable plus-1,350. Busch led the first portion of his Duel race before being slapped with a penalty for driving too fast on pit road. As a result, Kyle was forced to start at the tail end of the field during the following restart and quickly drove his way back to the front, ultimately finishing second in his Duel.
When analyzing the Duel for betting value, I'm always looking for drivers who are able to slice their cars through the field and Busch certainly proved capable of doing that Thursday night.
The bet: Kyle Busch to win the Daytona 500 (+1,350)
To summarize, the examination of historical ARP, overreactions to poor starting position and analysis of the Duel races indicates the following drivers are offering value when playing Daytona 500 futures:• Greg Biffle (+4,400)
• Denny Hamlin (+1,400)
• Kyle Busch (+1,350)
Remember, keep bankroll preservation in mind and play smaller units for a low-risk, high-reward Daytona 500.
