[h=1]Best bets for the Daytona 500[/h][h=3]Quick tips, winners and futures bets ahead of the big race[/h]
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The Daytona 500 is the biggest race of the Sprint Cup season for drivers, fans, media and even betting interest. In terms of value, the biggest upside to betting on NASCAR is the extremely small handle compared to the major U.S. sports, and as a result sportsbooks aren't dedicating significant resources when setting lines. There are a handful of opportunities throughout the season for educated bettors to pick off soft lines and find value by getting money down at mispriced numbers.
However, when the Sprint Cup Series slaps on restrictor plates at Daytona and Talladega, horsepower is reduced to the point where cars don't have the ability to separate and drive away from each other. This results in large packs of cars racing within feet and even inches of each other for 500 miles, meaning one tiny mistake can wipe out 20 cars within seconds. Experienced NASCAR bettors understand the unpredictability this causes and minimize risk to bankrolls by wagering smaller units than they will at the 33 (including the Sprint Cup All-Star Race) non-restrictor plate races.
With bankroll preservation in mind, I've compiled a couple of quick tips to help bettors handicap the Daytona 500, including three futures bets that I believe have been mispriced by oddsmakers.
If analyzing only average finish, bettors miss out on how well this driver really performed before a parts failure took him/her out of the race. Therefore, it's important to instead review average running position to get a more complete picture of driver performance in a specific race or racetrack.<offer></offer>
The table below ranks the top 15 drivers in ARP over the past 10 points races at Daytona and includes current Daytona 500 futures from 5Dimes.
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
The Daytona 500 is the biggest race of the Sprint Cup season for drivers, fans, media and even betting interest. In terms of value, the biggest upside to betting on NASCAR is the extremely small handle compared to the major U.S. sports, and as a result sportsbooks aren't dedicating significant resources when setting lines. There are a handful of opportunities throughout the season for educated bettors to pick off soft lines and find value by getting money down at mispriced numbers.
However, when the Sprint Cup Series slaps on restrictor plates at Daytona and Talladega, horsepower is reduced to the point where cars don't have the ability to separate and drive away from each other. This results in large packs of cars racing within feet and even inches of each other for 500 miles, meaning one tiny mistake can wipe out 20 cars within seconds. Experienced NASCAR bettors understand the unpredictability this causes and minimize risk to bankrolls by wagering smaller units than they will at the 33 (including the Sprint Cup All-Star Race) non-restrictor plate races.
With bankroll preservation in mind, I've compiled a couple of quick tips to help bettors handicap the Daytona 500, including three futures bets that I believe have been mispriced by oddsmakers.
[h=3]1. Average running position > average finish[/h]Like on-base percentage is the new batting average, average running position (ARP) is the new average finish metric in NASCAR research. While average finish gives insight into how drivers finish races, it does very little to measure performance for an entire race. For example, a driver could spend the first 490 of 500 miles in the top 10, then blow an engine and be relegated to a 30th-place finish.If analyzing only average finish, bettors miss out on how well this driver really performed before a parts failure took him/her out of the race. Therefore, it's important to instead review average running position to get a more complete picture of driver performance in a specific race or racetrack.<offer></offer>
The table below ranks the top 15 drivers in ARP over the past 10 points races at Daytona and includes current Daytona 500 futures from 5Dimes.
Rank | Driver | ARP | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
*The Sprint Unlimited and Duel races were not included in the data above. |