| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 38 | 0.00 | -0.62 |
| Season to Date | 132 | 152 | 0.00 | +26.43 |
All plays are for 2 units
Montreal +133 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes are just not playing well right now and haven’t been since they lost to Columbus 7-1 on February 6th. The Blues are just 4-4 over their past eight games. One of those victories occurred against Boston in which the Bruins outshot St. Louis, 27-15. Another victory occurred over Arizona, 2-1. Against Florida, the Blues Notes were outshot 41-33 and won in OT, 2-1. This is the time of year that teams start bringing it almost every night and while the Blues are a regular season monster, they have proven to be soft in the playoffs and it when it counts most. The shaky goaltending of both Brian Elliott and Jake Allen lately is concerning and so is the extremely inconsistent play of the Blues defense. Without Kevin Shattenkirk, the Blues don’t have another defenseman that can feed the forwards the puck with crisp passes out of the zone consistently. The Blues have played a lot of disturbing games lately and can’t be trusted in this range against the Canadiens.
First off, taking +140 on Montreal here is like taking +½ +140 because if the game goes to a shootout, Montreal is very likely going to win. Carey Price has a save % of 1.000 on the road this year in the SO and in his career, he’s 13-5 on the road in the shootout with a save % 0f .813. Habs have picked up points in eight of its past nine games. The only game they didn’t pick up at least as point in over that span was against Florida when Carey Price was given the night off. Montreal is also creating a ton of scoring chances lately. They have recorded 34 shots on net or more in six of their past 10 games and have scored two goals or more in 11 straight. Now, scoring two goals isn’t great but with Price in net, the other team needs three to beat you and Price has a GAA of 1.91. We’ve also written a great deal about one-goal games this year and how they’re a product of pure luck. Measuring what a team does in two goal games (or more) is a better barometer of how strong or weak a team is. Montreal is an exception because of its superior goaltending but we also can’t ignore that the Habs are 11-2 in two-goal games, which is the best mark in the NHL. In fact, Montreal has 22 wins of two goals or more and that, too, is the highest win total in the NHL. Combine that with C. Price in net and you get nothing but true value taking back a tag like this on the Habs.
Dallas +127 over WINNIPEG
OT included. You’re in the midst of a heated playoff race and follow up an embarrassing 5-1 loss to the Capitals with a 4-3 loss in Toronto. That’s the plight of the Jets right now but it’s actually worse than that. Winnipeg has lost nine of its past 13 games. You would think adding Drew Stafford and Tyler Myers into the mix would have helped immensely but it hasn’t. The loss of center Mathieu Perreault has been more significant than the addition of that aforementioned pair. The Jets have allowed four goals or more in four straight. Andrej Pavelec is always in danger of having a bad game and suddenly Michael Hutchison has taken a dramatic turn for the worse, as he’s allowed four goals or more in three straight and a bunch of those were softies. The Jets have gone from playing hard and being one of the toughest outs in the league to a fragile team that is losing confidence and cracking under the pressure of a playoff race. Furthermore, the Jets have spent more time in the box than any team in the league, which is another huge concern, especially when you’re struggling like they are.
What we know about the Stars is that they are a live dog whenever they play because of their ability to score goals and beat anyone. Dallas has dropped three straight but they had the lead in the third period in its last two games before melting down. Those three losses occurred against San Jose, Detroit and Dallas. Prior to that, the Stars had won four of five with victories in St. Louis, 4-1, in Boston and in New York against the Rangers. Dallas is just six points behind Minnesota for the final playoff spot in the West. They’re not dead yet so we’re likely to see some desperation from them here in a last ditch effort to make one final push to get in. Both teams are risky favorites but Winnipeg’s last 13 games reveal that it is still not ready to take that next step. In a game in which the Stars have as good a chance of winning as the Jets and maybe more so, we’re glad to take back a tag.
Calgary +162 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The more we see the Rangers play, the more we like them. New York is a tough out every night and has been since the second month of the season. The Rags have picked up points in seven straight and in 11 of their past 12 games. However, it is near impossible to maintain that extreme intensity for an extended period of time in this league and this could definitely be a game in which the Rangers take a breather or are just plain lethargic. The Rangers have been travelling extensively for the past three weeks. This is their ninth game in the past 17 days and they had to travel for all of them. New York will play consecutive home games here for the first time since the beginning of the month, which comes after they blew a 3-0 lead against the Blue Jackets on Sunday and won in OT. The Rangers always get up for Columbus because there are a bunch of former players on both teams. Now the Rangers will play a team they seldom see and that they already defeated back in December in Calgary, 5-2. After this game, New York gets Arizona in on Saturday before a big stretch against Philly, Nashville, Detroit, Chicago, the Islanders and Washington. These next two games against Calgary and Arizona are just not that crucial for the Rangers and they’ll see that schedule and figure they can take a bit of a breather in these next two games. Furthermore, Cam Talbot has really not been good in net at all, despite winning all those games. Talbot allowed three to Columbus on Sunday. He also lost 5-4 to the Canucks, beat the Islanders, 6-5, defeated Colorado, 6-3 and defeated the Maple Leafs, 5-4. Talbot has posted save percentages of .900 .857, .884, .897, .882, .880 and .872 in seven of his past eight games with only game above .900 over that span occurring against the Coyotes.
Calgary has serious goaltending issues, which is the only thing that will prevent them from making the playoffs. They should do whatever is necessary to trade for some adequate goaltending, just like Minnesota did a few weeks ago. Both Jonas Hiller and Kari Ramo cannot be trusted to play a good game and that is why the Flames are a bad risk when favored. However, as a pooch in this range, the risk is worth the reward and we’ll hope that Ramo (confirmed) gives the Flames a decent performance here. And it's not like the Flames are reeling either. Despite the shaky goaltending, Calgary is still a tough out because they play with fierce intensity almost every night and they have the talent to back it up. The Flames have picked up points in seven of their past 10 games. Calgary embarks on a seven-game trip with this one being the first up. This trip will ultimately decide their season so it would be very reasonable to expect a performance from them that leaves nothing on the table. Calgary has played just once in New York since the 2010 season so for many players, it’ll be their first game at MSG. In summarizing, Calgary is almost guaranteed to be in a playoff mindset here, as this seven-game trip that begins here is their season and they know it. They actually catch the Rangers in a vulnerable spot and when you combine everything, what you have is a damn live pooch at a very sweet price.
CHICAGO -½ +162 over Florida (1st period)
First period line. Enough is enough already. Chicago has dropped three straight and five of seven. The Blackhawks have scored two or less in four straight. Those last three losses all occurred at the United Center, where Chicago has been outscored 13-5. Chicago didn’t just lose on Sunday to the ice-cold Bruins, they were whacked 6-2 and were down 6-1 after two periods. In that second period, Chicago was outshot 16-7. Like we said, enough is enough. Chicago is powerful. That loss on Sunday demands a big response and you can expect it here right from the opening faceoff to the final bell. Chicago has slipped to third place in the Central and suddenly a couple more teams are breathing down their necks. Sunday’s loss was their wake-up call and they’re about to take it out on the Panthers.
Florida played on Sunday and lost 5-1 in Pittsburgh. That score is misleading because Florida was actually the better team, as they took the play to Pittsburgh practically the entire game. However, Florida will now play the final game of a five-game trip and they’re frustrated. They have scored one goal or less in five of their past seven. The last time they were in here, the Panthers lost 6-2 and were down 2-0 after a period. Now they Panthers have the unenviable task of playing a team and coach that are both in a very foul mood. Yeah, it’s a risk spotting a -½ goal in the first period because if Chicago gets down 1-0, we’re very likely going to rip the ticket up. However, a team this good that figures to come out like a freight train is worth a wager like this at a price like this because they’re about to explode. The Panthers are ripe for that explosion.
