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Golf Valspar Championship Preview and Picks
by Matt Fargo

For the first time since the 2012 PGA Championship, all top 50 players in the world were in attendance last week at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and Dustin Johnson pulled off the victory. The tour now heads to the Westin Innisbrook-Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship, formerly known as the Tampa Bay Championship, and the Transitions Championship before that. The field strength goes down this week coming off a WGC event but there are plenty of big names.

After ranking the fourth hardest par 71 on tour four years ago (out of 11), Copperhead ranked as the fifth easiest on tour three years ago but in 2013, it was ranked as the hardest par 71 on tour. Last year, it finished +1.43 to par, the second highest average since 2007. But as evidenced three years ago, it can be tamed as long as mistakes are kept at a minimum. Keeping the ball in the fairway is a must as the layout is tight so players that are wayward off the tee will be penalized. Driving distance is not essential like last week.

This week, five top ten players in the world are in the field, as well as 11 of the top 30 so we have a healthy field and a lot of experience on top of that. Of the 141 players in the field, only three have played here and made the cut over the last five years, Jim Furyk, Justin Leonard and Jason Dufner. Furyk has the best finishing scores of them all as he has an 8.6 average finish in the five years compared to a 20.2 average for Dufner and 25.4 for Leonard.

John Senden is the defending champion but winning again is unlikely based on history and the fact he is off to a tough start this season. Not only has the tournament never produced a back-to-back champion, just three of 14 defending titleholders have finished in the top 10 a year later. It is also interesting to note that six of the last nine winners were 35 years of age or older, including Senden last year, which shows experience plays a big role in finding success here.

Former No. 1 player in the world Luke Donald (+2,800) has fallen on some hard times as he has not produced a PGA Tour win since 2012 but that victory took place right here. He is playing better after a tough start to this season as a T49 last week was preceded by a T7 at the Honda Classic. Besides his win in 2012, he finished T6 in 2010, T4 in 2013 and T4 last year. He did not make the start in 2011.

Brandt Snedeker (+3,300) already has one win this season and a bunch of other strong finishes in what looks like it is going to be a big bounceback season. His win at Pebble Beach came after a T19 at the Farmers and last week, he finished T17 at Doral setting him up with a similar scenario. While he struggled here last year, it was due to injury and he has played well including a solo fourth in 2011.

We are taking another shot with Justin Rose (+3,500) who is getting solid odds for being No. 9 in the world. He has yet to put together a strong start in 2015 as he has two missed cuts and a 55th last week at Doral but he didn’t play horrible last week until Sunday. This could be the place he rights the ship for four rounds as he has made the weekend here in his last four starts including a T5 and a T8.

Kevin Na (+5,500) has quietly put together a decent season as he is ranked 35th in the FedEx Cup Standings and has risen to 27th in the world following a strong T9 finish last week at Doral. He has never missed the cut at Innisbrook in five career starts which includes a T8 in 2009 and a solo second last year. His only career win came in 2011 but with three second place finishes the last two years, he is ready.

As mentioned, Jason Dufner (+6,600) is one of three players in the field to have survived the cut at Innisbrook each of the last five years. His three best finishes have come the last three years including a T14 last year. He opened 2015 with two missed cuts but has been in better form with a T17 at the Honda Classic and a T49 last week no thanks to an opening 79 but he played the last three days at even par.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Valspar Championship – All for 1 Unit

Luke Donald (+2,800)
Brandt Snedeker (+3,300)
Justin Rose (+3,500)
Kevin Na (+5,500)
Jason Dufner (+6,600)

2015 Record to date after 8 events: +46.5 Units

Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +18 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship +16 Units

AAC Tournament Round 1: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

UCF Knights vs. East Carolina Pirates (-3)

The league’s top freshmen scorers will meet when UCF battles East Carolina in the opening round of the American Athletic Conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn., on Thursday. Pirates freshman B.J. Tyson and Knights freshman B.J. Taylor lead their teams – and all AAC freshmen – in scoring at 12.5 points each while UCF’s Adonys Henriquez adds 10.6 points. The ninth-seeded Knights, who enter the postseason on a four-game skid, lost both meetings to the eighth-seeded Pirates.

The teams rank near the top of the league in 3-point shooting – UCF at 34.8 percent and East Carolina at 34.7 – but the Pirates were third in defending the arc, holding teams to 30.9 percent. The Knights struggled to slow opponents, allowing a league-worst 71.4 points and giving up at least 75 points 10 times. The winner advances to play top-seeded SMU, who beat both teams during the regular season.

TRENDS:

*Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 overall.
*Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 neutral site games.

Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave (-1)

First-year coach Kelvin Sampson knows his Houston team is playing its best basketball as it enters Thursday’s first round of the American Athletic Conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn., against seventh-seeded Tulane. A three-game win streak – including a 68-63 overtime victory at Tulane – has given the 10th-seeded Cougars encouragement for the future. “I wish we could start the season now,” Sampson said after Saturday’s regular-season finale. “I promise you our record wouldn’t be 12-18. It’s not like we felt we were going to make the (NCAA) Tournament. My goal as a head coach coming into a new program … was to establish a culture and establish an identity.”

That new identity includes playing tough despite injuries and departures that have left the Cougars with seven scholarship players for the tournament. Tulane won the first meeting in Houston 68-65 in mid-January but averaged 54.1 points during a 2-10 stretch that followed. The winner plays second-seeded Tulsa, which swept both during the regular season.

TRENDS:

*Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Green Wave are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
*Over is 12-3-1 in Cougars last 16 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 36-16 in Green Wave last 52 overall.

USF Bulls vs. UConn Huskies (-14)

Defending national champion Connecticut has the American Athletic Conference’s top scorer and a home-court advantage as it opens the league tournament against USF on Thursday at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn. The Huskies went 6-1 at the XC Center – including a 4-1 record against the AAC – on the way to a sixth-place finish. Senior Ryan Boatright leads the league with 17.8 points while the 11th-seeded Bulls have the nation’s youngest roster.

The Bulls finished the regular season losing 14 of 16, including a pair of losses to the Huskies by a combined 27 points. They’ve been without leading scorer Corey Allen Jr. (NCAA suspension) for the past three games but freshman Troy Holston Jr. has stepped in to fill the void. UConn leads the series 14-2 and the winner faces third-seeded Cincinnati.

TRENDS:

*Huskies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games.
*Bulls are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
*Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

‘Overs’ cashing when Providence-St. John’s clash
Justin Hartling
Heading into their Big East tournament clash, Providence and St. John’s have gone over in their past five contests.

Those five games, dating back to Jan. 16, 2014, have seen the Friars average 75 points and the Red Storm tally 80.4 ppg. With the teams averaging a combined 155.4 ppg, they have faced an average spread of 134.

Coach Huggins doubts Staten plays Thursday
by Justin Hartling
West Virginia will enter the Big 12 tournament against Baylor Thursday and will likely be without Juwan Staten. The senior guard is dealing with a knee injury that has been affecting him since February.

“[Staten] fully intends on playing. I doubt he plays tomorrow,” WVU coach Bob Huggins said per Brian Hamilton.

Staten is one of just two Mountaineer players to be averaging over 10 points per game, notching 14.5 points per contest.

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Thursday
by Alan Matthews

While Power 5 conference tournaments really started in full on Wednesday, those were mostly the dregs of those leagues. Starting Thursday, we begin to get a look at some bubble teams that absolutely can’t afford to lose their tournament opener. I examine one of those clubs, the Big Ten’s Illinois, below along with two other interesting matchups. Could UConn’s relevance this season end already? It will with a huge upset loss.

Michigan vs. Illinois (-3.5)

This Big Ten Tournament matchup is at noon ET on the Big Ten Network from the United Center in Chicago. Michigan is having a lost season, while Illinois is listed among the “Next Four Out” on ESPN. The winner gets the pleasure of facing Wisconsin. Beat UM and UW and the Illini will get in.

No. 9 Michigan (15-15, 8-10) will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. It was expected to be a moderate Big Ten contender, but its two best players, Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton, were lost to injuries. Walton’s season hasn’t been officially declared over yet due to a broken foot, but he’s doubtful at best for this tournament. The Wolverines will get one guy back for this game in freshman center Ricky Doyle. He missed the regular-season finale, a 79-69 home win over Rutgers, due to illness. Doyle averages 6.1 points and 3.2 rebounds in almost 19 minutes per game. Freshman Aubrey Dawkins, the son of Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins, had a career-high 31 points in that win over Rutgers with eight 3-pointers, one shy of the school record. It was only the second win in the past nine games for UM. No. 8 Illinois (19-12, 9-9) lost a tough bubble game to close the regular season, 63-58 at Purdue on Saturday. The Illini led by as many as 13. Senior Rayvonte Rice had 25 points for Illinois. Since returning to the Illini lineup in mid-February from injury and suspension, he has averaged 16.5 points per game.

Michigan and Illinois split during the regular season. On Dec. 30 in Ann Arbor in the conference opener, UM won 73-65 in OT. LeVert and Walton were still healthy then, but Dawkins led the way with 20 points while Doyle had 13. Walton was actually scoreless in 27 minutes. Michigan erased a 13-point second-half deficit. Malcolm Hill scored 19 as the only player to finish in double digits for Illinois. On Feb. 12 in Champaign the teams went to OT again and the Illini prevailed 64-52. Kendrick Nunn hit a late 3-pointer to force OT. Illinois closed the game on a 21-2 run, including the overtime.

Key trends: Michigan has covered just six of its past 20 after an ATS win. Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its past five on Thursday. UM is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Why take the favorite: It’s basically a home game for Illinois, which also has much more to play for.

South Florida vs. Connecticut (-14)

It’s an American Athletic Conference first-round game on ESPNews at 8 p.m. from Hartford, so obviously that location is a huge boost for the defending national champion Huskies because they are going to have to win the tournament to get a shot at repeating in the Big Dance. The winner faces No. 3 seed Cincinnati on Friday.

No. 6 seed UConn (17-13, 10-8) got an impressive win over ranked SMU on March 1 that might have at least gotten the Huskies into the at-large conversation, but then they closed the year with a close home loss to Memphis and a 75-63 defeat at Temple on Saturday. The Owls erased a five-point halftime deficit with a 15-4 run over the first 7:18 of the second half. UConn’s Amida Brimah was named the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year. His 3.37 blocks per game average ranks third in Division I and leads the AAC. As noted above, this game is in Hartford and UConn is 6-1 there this season (splits between there and Storrs). South Florida (9-22, 3-15) was last in the AAC. All three Bulls’ conference wins came in Tampa. Recently, the team’s leading scorer, senior Corey Allen Jr., was ruled ineligible by the NCAA for six games. The Bulls closed out the regular season with a 67-63 home loss to Tulane on Saturday. USF lost 14 of its final 16 games and ended regular-season conference play last in the league in scoring offense (56.7).

UConn was 2-0 vs. USF this year, winning by 14 in Tampa and 13 in Hartford. The Huskies are 6-0 all-time vs. the Bulls in Hartford.

Key trends: USF is 2-5 ATS in its past seven games. UConn has the same record in its past seven against teams with a losing record. The Huskies are just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 games overall. USF is 4-1 ATS in the past five at UConn.

Why take the favorite: USF is 1-12 on the road. I wish this line were a couple of points lower, but I expect a focused Huskies squad plus no Allen for the Bulls.

Xavier vs. No. 22 Butler (-1.5)

This Big East Tournament game at Madison Square Garden is at 9:30 p.m. Butler will be in the NCAA Tournament no matter what and is currently projected by ESPN as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest. Xavier is a No. 9 in the South, but the Musketeers are going to be sweating Selection Sunday if they lose here — especially big. The winner likely faces Georgetown in the semifinals.

Butler (22-9, 12-6) is the No. 3 seed for this tournament. The Bulldogs closed the season with a 68-68 win at then-No. 24 Providence. One of Butler’s better players is Andrew Chrabascz, who is third on the team in scoring at 10.9 points per game and pulls down 3.7 rebounds. He missed a few weeks with a broken hand but has been back for two games, although Coach Chris Holtmann claims that his player isn’t yet 100 percent. Chrabascz is 7-for-22 from the field since his return. Sixth-seeded Xavier (19-12, 9-9) nearly suffered a bubble-bursting loss in its regular-season finale at a terrible Creighton team but escaped 74-73 to end a two-game losing streak. Dee Davis hit two free throws with four seconds left. He only had four points in the game. Matt Stainbrook scored a career-high 26 points.

Xavier was beaten at Butler 88-76 on Jan. 10 as Chrabascz scored 19 points to lead five players in double figures. He missed the rematch on Feb. 21 in Cincinnati, a 73-56 Musketeers victory that remains Butler’s most-lopsided loss. Xavier never trailed.

Key trends: Xavier is 6-2 ATS in its past eight on Thursday. The Musketeers are 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site games. Butler is 1-4 ATS in its past five after a win. Xavier has covered seven of the past nine meetings.

Why take the underdog: Xavier needs it more.

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAB small conferences
By Doc Sports

Some of the best betting value in college basketball is hiding beyond the power conferences. Each week Doc’s Sports takes a look at the little programs that could help you make big cash.

Team to watch: Yale Bulldogs (22-9 SU, 14-7-1 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Harvard Saturday

First place in the Ivy League and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament will be on the line when Yale plays Harvard (9-13 ATS) in a one-game tiebreaker at The Palestra in Philadelphia Saturday.

Justin Sears, a 6-foot-8 junior forward, is a big reason why Yale is in fine form and came within seconds of already clinching the league title (the Bulldogs lost at Dartmouth 59-58 on a buzzer-beater last weekend). Sears (14.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.5 bpg) was named Ivy League Player of the Week earlier this month thanks in part to a 28-point, 12-rebound performance against Princeton.

“You get your acceptance letter from Yale and one of the first things they tell you is, ‘We hate Harvard,’” Sears reflected. “Everyone gets into it. The number one most important thing at the end of the day is, ‘Did you beat Harvard?’”

The Bulldogs just beat Harvard 62-52 last Friday despite being 10-point road underdogs.

Team to beware: VCU Rams (22-9 SU, 11-19 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Fordham/George Mason Thursday (A-10 Tournament)

A poorly-timed, late-season slump caused VCU to plunge from first place in the Atlantic 10 to fifth—and out of the double-byes that went to the conference’s Top 4 teams.

The Rams, who have lost three of their last four (0-4 ATS) and five of their last nine (2-7 ATS), can chalk up their recent struggles to complete failure in close games. Four of their last five setbacks have come by five points or fewer and two required overtime. By contrast, VCU’s four most recent wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

Shaka Smart’s team simply has not been the same since Briante Weber suffered a torn ACL in a loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. Weber (8.1 ppg) was a senior leader and the instigator of VCU’s trademark “havoc” press defense. He averaged 3.9 steals per game.

The Rams are 11-19 ATS overall.

NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, March 12 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

No question what the game of the night on Thursday’s five-game slate is: Cleveland at San Antonio in what could well be a Finals preview. Of course, LeBron James faced the Spurs while with Miami in the past two Finals, winning the first and losing last year’s. If the Spurs and Cavs don’t play in June, Thursday night might be the last time that future Hall of Famers LeBron and Tim Duncan compete against one another. I fully expect Duncan to hang up the sneakers after this season. Here’s a look at the entire schedule.

Bucks at Pacers (-6.5, 185)

Milwaukee hosted Orlando on Wednesday. The Pacers beat those Magic 118-86 on Tuesday behind 34 points (season high), seven assists and six rebounds from Rodney Stuckey. The Pacers made 17 3-pointers to match the franchise record. Indiana moved into sole possession of seventh in the East — the Hawks and Cavs are hoping to not face the Pacers in Round 1. Milwaukee and Indiana have split two meetings. The Bucks won 87-81 very early in the season in Indianapolis, and the Pacers won 94-91 in Milwaukee on Jan. 2. Both teams are very different now.

Key trends: The Bucks are 1-5 against the spread in their past six road games. Indiana has covered 10 of its past 11 at home. The “over/under” has gone under in four of the past five meetings.

Early lean: Pacers and love, love the under.



Grizzlies at Wizards (pick’em, 184.5)

Memphis played in Boston on Wednesday night. This is the TNT early game, but with an earlier start time of 7 p.m. ET. Washington is looking for its first two-game winning streak in more than a month. The Wizards looked really good Monday with a 95-69 victory in Charlotte behind 15 points and nine assists from John Wall to snap a nine-game road losing streak. The Wizards shot 51.8 percent from the field. Bradley Beal returned to the lineup after sitting out Saturday’s game at Milwaukee with a mild stress reaction in his right leg. This is the first meeting of the season. Last year the Grizzlies swept, 92-89 at home (despite 37 from Beal) and 110-104 in D.C.

Key trends: Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its past seven against teams with a winning record. Washington is 0-7 ATS in its past seven vs. the West. The under is 5-2 in Washington’s past seven.

Early lean: Wizards and under.



Rockets at Jazz (TBA)

Houston was in Portland on Wednesday. Utah won a third straight on Tuesday, 87-82 over the visiting Knicks. Derrick Favors had 29 points and 12 rebounds. Rudy Gobert, now one of my favorite players, added 10 points, 14 rebounds, four blocks and three steals. Leading scorer Gordon Hayward was out with a back injury and is questionable here (thus the TBA). Utah has yet to win four straight this season. Houston leads the series 2-0, winning its season opener 104-93 in Salt Lake City and 97-82 at home on Jan. 10. Dwight Howard was around for both those games.

Key trends: Houston is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven in Utah.

Early lean: Wait on Hayward, but I like Jazz to win if he does play.



Cavaliers at Spurs (TBA)

This is the TNT nightcap with a 9:30 p.m. ET start. Let’s start with the big question first: Will Duncan play? San Antonio won its sixth straight Tuesday, 117-107 at home against Toronto. Kawhi Leonard had 24 points and 11 rebounds and matched a career high with five steals, while Tony Parker continued his recent surge with 23 points and nine assists. As for Duncan, he left with about a minute remaining, hyperextending his left elbow when teammate Tiago Splitter fell into him. The team says he is OK but obviously monitor that (thus the TBA). Cleveland looked awesome on Tuesday in a 127-94 win in Dallas. LeBron James played without his usual headband for some reason and finished with 27 points. Every Cavs starter had at least 17 points in an offensive clinic. San Antonio won in Cleveland 92-90 on Nov. 19, the Spurs’ 10th straight win over the Cavaliers. Duncan and Boris Diaw had 19 to pace the Spurs. LeBron coughed up the ball with 1.9 seconds left while trying to dribble behind his back. He was just 6-for-17 for 15 points. Leonard seems to give LeBron as much trouble on defense as anyone.

Key trends: The Cavs are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 vs. the West. San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in its past four Thursday games. The over is 8-1 in Cleveland’s past nine against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-2 in the Spurs’ past seven.

Early lean: I think Cavs win this somewhat easily, especially if Duncan sits — LeBron remembers what happened last time he was on San Antonio’s floor: his Heat career ended.



Knicks at Lakers (-6, 192.5)

In most years, there’s no way this game isn’t nationally televised — it originally was supposed to be but was pulled because it’s truly unwatchable with both Carmelo and Kobe out for the year. New York lost a fifth straight in Utah on Tuesday, 87-82, the Knicks’ fifth straight game scoring under 90. Someone named Alexey Shved had 21 points, a career-high 10 rebounds and seven assists for the Knicks. New York missed Tim Hardaway Jr. (back) for the second consecutive game, but Coach Derek Fisher thinks he might return here. L.A. ended a five-game skid with Tuesday’s 93-85 home win over Detroit. Jordan Hill led seven Lakers in double figures with 16 points as L.A. swept the season series. The game was Byron Scott’s 1,000th as an NBA head coach during the regular season. The Lakers lost at Madison Square Garden 92-80 on Super Bowl Sunday. Anthony was still playing then and had 31 points and eight rebounds. Carlos Boozer led L.A. with 19 points and 10 rebounds, but the Lakers were missing both Nick Young and Jordan Hill. Young remains out.

Key trends: The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their past four Thursday games. The Lakers have covered five straight vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in each team’s past four overall.

Early lean: Can I pass? Lakers and under.

See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

The Vanderbilt Commodores went through a lot in the final month of the SEC schedule. Vandy climbed out of the conference basement with an 8-2 SU and ATS run to close out the year, including notable wins over Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, and earned the No. 7 seed in the SEC tournament. The Commodores also absorbed a sideline scandal when head coach Kevin Stallings was recorded ripping into freshman Wade Baldwin following the win against the Vols, telling Baldwon “I’m going to f-ing kill you!” after he clapped in the face of a Tennessee player.

Vanderbilt meets none other than the Volunteers in its opening game of the SEC tournament Thursday – which is sure to be a sore spot with UT. The Commodores may have peaked a little too soon and could be sitting a little fat and happy with their turnaround to end the year. The Vols edges Vandy in overtime in their first meeting of the season, so this 4.5-point spread may be a touch optimistic.

Lookahead spot

The Pittsburgh Penguins weren’t supposed to be wallowing in the middle of the Eastern Conference come March. The high-powered Pens have fallen off the pace in the playoff race, sitting in the No. 5 spot after splitting games on a recent four-game Western road trip. Pittsburgh has what should be a “gimmie” against the Edmonton Oilers Thursday, but the upcoming calendar could have the Penguins’ focus elsewhere.

The Oilers open a three-game home stand for Pittsburgh, which welcomes the Boston Bruins – who sit eighth in the conference – and Detroit Red Wings – who are just one point behind the Pens in the No. 6 spot. The Penguins could get caught looking ahead to those Saturday and Sunday games against fellow postseason clubs, opening the door for Edmonton, which has two full days off to prepare for Pittsburgh.

Schedule spot

Are the Atlanta Hawks real NBA title contenders or are they about to turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes 12 with a challenging Western Conference road trip? Atlanta opens a six-game non-conference swing in Denver Wednesday, then travels to Phoenix, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Golden State and Oklahoma City.

That’s a string of six away games in nine days for the Hawks, who have won seven of their last eight overall heading into Wednesday – five of those victories coming at home. Atlanta is a solid 18-4 SU versus Western Conference opponents, going 16-6 ATS in those non-conference games.

Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Spurs

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs (-1, 207)

The Cleveland Cavaliers opened their four-game road trip in impressive fashion on Tuesday and have firmly established themselves as a championship contender. The Cavaliers will try to prove that standing once again when they visit the defending champion San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. The meeting mark LeBron James’ first trip back to San Antonio since a loss in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season with the Miami Heat.

James averaged 28.2 points on 57.1 percent shooting and 7.8 rebounds in the Finals last season but the Spurs easily fended off the Heat in five games, giving James another reason to leave and start over again in Cleveland. The Cavaliers took a few months to get things going with their revamped roster but have gone 22-5 over the last 27 games to move from sub-.500 into second place in the Eastern Conference, capped by a 127-94 thrashing of the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. Cleveland could catch a break on Thursday if San Antonio forward Tim Duncan (elbow) is limited.

LINE HISTORY: Initial lines opened at San Antonio -1 with a total of 207. The line quickly moved to a pick'em with a total of 207.5 at some books.

INJURY REPORT: Cavaliers - F Shawn Marion (Out-Hip) Spurs - F Tim Duncan (Prob-Elbow), G Manu Ginobili (Ques-Illness)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Cleveland and San Antonio are both in solid current form. The Cavaliers are 9-3 SU and 7-4 ATS while the Spurs are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS, however San Antonio has won their last six games with their offense scoring 101 points or more in every game. The Spurs won 92-90 in Cleveland earlier this season as 3.5-point underdogs, so we can be sure that the Cavaliers are looking to avenge that home loss. This should be a terrific game between two teams peaking at the right time." - Covers Expert Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We’ve made the Cavs favorites in every game since mid-January, but that will change [Thursday] night. The Spurs are getting their end-of-season swag going and while you never know what Pop is going to do as far as personnel, we expect they’ll have all hands on deck for this one, including Timmy and Manu. The public will probably back Cleveland but I think the home squad gets it done again." - John Lester, Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (41-25 SU, 32-34 ATS, 24-41-1 O/U): Cleveland got at least 17 points from each of its starters against the Mavericks, led by James’ 27 on 10-of-14 shooting. “I like the way we approached the game,” James told reporters. “We approached the game with a physical aggression mindset both offensively and defensively. We shared the ball and we played with great rhythm, everyone did and it was a great win for us.” The Cavaliers have played only three home games over the last month and will play six of their next eight away from home as they try to hold off Chicago and Toronto for the No. 2 spot in the East.

ABOUT THE SPURS (40-23 SU, 28-33-2 ATS, 29-34 O/U): Duncan suffered a hyperextended left elbow when his arm got caught between Tiago Splitter and Amir Johnson in Tuesday’s 117-107 win over the Raptors, but the 38-year-old reportedly plans to play on Thursday. San Antonio, which is battling for the No. 5 spot in the West, has done the Cavaliers a favor with wins over Chicago and Toronto in the last two games and is enjoying a six-game winning streak as Tony Parker pulls his offense around. The former All-Star averaged 6.8 points on 13-of-50 shooting over a five-game stretch before rebounding to 24.5 points on 40-of-68 in the last four contests.

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Over is 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
*Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

52.94 percent are backing the Cavs +1.

Thursday's Early Action

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (23-8) vs. BAYLOR BEARS (23-8)

Line: Baylor -3

No. 16 Baylor looks for a three-game season sweep over No. 18 West Virginia as the Big 12’s number four and five seeds clash in Kansas City.

Baylor has dominated the series with the Mountaineers this season, winning in Morgantown (87-69) on Feb. 7 and defending their home floor in Waco (78-66) on Feb 28th. The Bears covered both contests as well. That said, all eyes will be on West Virginia star senior G Juwan Staten (14.5 PPG, 4.6 APG), who has missed the Mountaineers last three contests with a knee injury and is questionable for this contest. Updated status on Staten’s injury could have the initial Baylor (-3) line moving before tip-off.

Without Staten, West Virginia has gone 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) losing at Kansas before getting their first non-Staten win at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Baylor has won five of its past six contests and the Bears’ only loss in that stretch came at Texas (61-59) in a fight-marred overtime game on March 2nd. The last four times Baylor has been favored, the team is 2-2 ATS.

Historically, Baylor is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) since West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2011. These two squads have never met in the Big 12 Tournament and West Virginia’s only win in this series was on the road last January. The total has gone Over five of the past seven times Baylor and West Virginia have met, including the past three contests. In addition to Staten’s injury status, Mountaineer G Gary Browne (leg – 7.0 PPG) is also questionable for this contest.

The Oklahoma State win on Saturday should prove big for Coach Bob Huggins’ troops should Staten and Browne be declared out for this conference tournament contest. The Mountaineers are extremely young and inexperienced without those two seniors combining for major minutes (Huggins started two freshman and two sophomores versus the Cowboys). With Staten gone, the onus is on what the Mountaineers do best: Force steals (11.1 SPG, 1st in NCAA) and crash the offensive glass (17.0 ORPG, 1st in NCAA) in order to create easy baskets. Staten is their best player at bailing the Mountaineers out of a stalled half-court possession, hence the need for second shot opportunities and turning defense into offense.

G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.2 PPG) has been a bright spot filling in for Staten, as he’s averaging 16.3 points, on 50% from the field, 45% from 3PT in the three games Staten has missed. G Jevon Carter (8.5 PPG, 1.8 SPG) is also extremely capable of exploding and can do so at a moment’s notice: to wit, his 25-point performance on Feb. 28th in the Mountaineers’ last loss to Baylor.

F Devin Williams (11.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) can be a monster when he wants to be or he can foul out in less than 20 minutes. Often the x-factor in Mountaineer wins, Williams collected a huge double-double in the win over Oklahoma State on Saturday (22 points and 13 rebounds) while dishing out the foul trouble instead of being knee-deep in it (14-for-15 FT). Williams had only four points and six rebounds while collecting four fouls in West Virginia’s most recent loss to Baylor. Baylor’s patient half-court offense and perimeter weapons are a bad matchup for West Virginia, who struggles to prevent great looks from long range when they can’t force turnovers (36.8% 3PT defense, 296th in NCAA).

The common theme in both of Baylor’s wins over the Mountaineers has been successfully navigating around West Virginia’s pressure defense. In the first meeting, they had a few hiccups, committing 19 turnovers, but they broke the press early and often to shoot just under 55% for the game in Morgantown. West Virginia fouls often, but is also equally as good at drawing fouls, so Baylor had to be pleased with the fact that the nation’s third leading rebounder, F Rico Gathers (11.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG) was able to stay on the floor for 29 minutes in the win and contribute 17 points and 16 rebounds. Baylor was able to get to the line 35 times, going +10 in free throw margin over West Virginia.

In Baylor’s most recent victory, the Bears protected the ball beautifully while handing out 18 assists to only eight turnovers. Gathers had another double-double (17 points, 10 rebounds) while getting his bruising counterpart, West Virginia’s Williams, in foul trouble. Meanwhile, versatile F’s Taurean Prince (14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 48% FG) and Royce O’Neale (10.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.5 APG) both enjoyed success against the Mountaineers, especially O’Neale who was a nightmare for West Virginia to contain.

Often being the focal point breaking the press, O’Neale’s averages (16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 10-for-16 FG, 5-for-8 3PT) show just how much he influenced the game in Baylor’s two victories. Prince was no slouch, averaging 17.5 points over the two games on 13-for-27 from the field (6-for-11 from three).

G Kenny Chery (11.3 PPG, 4.0 APG, 1.8 3PT/game) is another weapon that Baylor can hopefully rely on, although his scoring has taken a dip lately (four single-digit scoring efforts in his past seven games).

In G Lester Medford (7.7 PPG, 1.5 3PT/game) the Bears boast a fourth rotation player that hits at least 1.5 threes a game, as the deep ball is a big part of Baylor’s arsenal (38.7% 3PT, 39th in NCAA) and playing against West Virginia’s league-worst three-point defense provides a great opportunity for Prince, O’Neale, Chery and Medford to get open looks and create space for Gathers on the interior.

ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (21-10) vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS (21-10)

Line: Providence -2

Providence looks to stave off a third loss to St. John’s as both teams look to boost their NCAA tournament resumes Thursday.

Prior to St. John’s taking both regular season games off of Providence this season (83-77 in Rhode Island on Jan. 14 and 75-66 in Madison Square Garden on Jan. 31) the last time the Friars beat the Red Storm was a year ago - to the day - in the Big East Tournament. The Friars’ victory would propel them to a magical Big East title run and an automatic bid to the 2014 NCAA tournament.

St. John’s is still licking its wounds from an absolute thrashing (105-68) at the hands of conference leader, Villanova, on Saturday. The Red Storm were without the nation’s fifth leading shot-blocker, C Chris Obekpa (5.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.2 BPG) in that game, and the floodgates opened once Villanova knew that St. John’s had no rim protection. Obekpa is officially questionable for this contest with a gimpy ankle. Given how integral he is to the Red Storm’s chances of winning, all eyes will be on his injury situation leading up to the opening tip. Before the debacle in Philadelphia, St. John’s had won six of its previous seven games, positioning itself to be in the discussion for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Providence has bobbed in and out of the top-25 lately, but a home 68-64 loss to Butler on Saturday has to be very damaging in the eyes of the NCAA committee. Just as St. John’s does, Providence desperately needs a solid win to put itself back in good favor, as the loser of this game will most likely find themselves squarely on the bubble. Providence ended its regular season in mediocre fashion (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) including two losses against Villanova (the Friars’ best chances for a statement win).

Historically, Providence is 13-7 SU (10-10 ATS) in the past 20 meetings between these two schools, however St. John’s holds a 5-3 SU (6-2 ATS) edge over the past eight contests in this series. The total has gone Over each of the past five times that the Red Storm and Friars have played. In addition to Obekpa’s cloudy status for the Red Storm, G Jamal Branch (4.7 PPG, 2.5 APG) is also questionable (groin).

A St. John’s win, will largely hinge on the health status of Obekpa. That said, they have an outstanding core group of perimeter players. Like Providence’s Bryce Cotton from a year ago, senior G D’Angelo Harrison (17.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 3PT/game) has the talent and lack of a conscience to put the Red Storm on his back and carry them to a conference title. He fouls a ton for a guard (3.4 FPG) and these issues can easily take himself off his game, or get him planted on the bench by Coach Steve Lavin.

St. John’s best player this season has arguably been the human swiss army knife otherwise known as F Sir’Dominic Pointer (13.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 53% FG, 2.5 BPG, 2.0 SPG). Pointer has played well against Providence this season, averaging 19 PPG over those two contests. As unique a player as there is in the whole nation, Pointer is amongst the Big East’s top-10 leaders in every category listed above except assists (where he’s 13th). Pointer is the only player in the nation averaging two steals and two blocks per game, as he and Obekpa are the main reasons why the Red Storm are 4th in the nation in blocks (6.6 BPG).

Balancing out Coach Lavin’s short rotation are G Rysheed Jordan (14.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) and G Phil Greene IV (13.3 PPG, 40% 3PT). Greene IV is an iron man, leading the team with 34.8 minutes per game and averaged 16 PPG versus the Friars this season on 50% (13-for-26) from the field. Jordan has come into his own this season as he and Pointer help St. John’s rack up 7.6 steals per game (44th NCAA). A new development for Jordan has been his marksmanship from three point range, as he’s exploded to go 10-for-23 in his past three games, en route to leading the Red Storm in scoring during that stretch to end the season at 19.7 points per game.

St. John’s knows it can score efficiently against the Friars (50.9% and 47.4% FG, respectively), and will have to continue to do so, as the Red Storm are at a distinct size disadvantage. It’s not likely that the Red Storm will hit just shy of 60% from three, as they did in the road victory over Providence, but as long as Obekpa is healthy, the Red Storm has proven that they can subdue the Providence offense, holding the Friars to 39.7% and 41.3% FG respectively.

Providence knows the keys to beating St. John’s: 1) Get St. John’s in foul trouble (which the Friars did in the first game). 2) Outrebound the Red Storm mercilessly (which the Friars did, 44-29 in the second game). 3) Shoot better than 9-for-31 from three point range. Unfortunately, the Friars lack the perimeter defensive fortitude to match up well with St. John’s aforementioned four key offensive players. The Friars aren’t bad statistically on defense (65.8 PPG allowed, 4th in Big East) and while not at St. John’s level, they do protect the rim well (4.7 BPG, 3rd in Big East, 42nd in NCAA).

That said, Providence plays five players over 20 minutes a game and only one of them, star G Kris Dunn (15.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.4 APG) is similar in size, stature, and quickness to the Red Storm quartet of Harrison, Jordan, Greene and Pointer. Dunn has been arguably the Big East’s best player, as the oft-injured guard finally put together a full season displaying breathtaking athleticism and playmaking ability, albeit with a penchant for trying to do too much (4.1 TO/G). When arguing whether Dunn is the league’s best player, one could offer up the efforts of fellow teammate,

F LaDontae Henton (20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG), the Big East’s leading scorer and one of only 15 players in the nation to average 20+ points per game this season. Henton has been a four-year starter since day one as a freshman for Coach Ed Cooley. Henton struggled to go 2-for-14 from the field in his last effort versus the Red Storm. A big issue for Providence in this matchup is that the Friars just really struggle from the three point arc (30.4 % 3PT, 315th in NCAA). Scoring inside against the length of Obekpa and Pointer is tough enough, but if their three point woes continue as they have against the Red Storm, Providence will find itself forcing the action towards St. John’s rim protectors hoping that the referees will show them mercy with fouls.

NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Jason Sharpe

Take #512 Illinois (-4) over Michigan (Noon, Thursday, March 12)
It’s been a long frustrating season for Michigan as a lot more was expected of this team than their current 15-15 mark overall. The biggest reason to blame for the bad year has been the injury situation as the Wolverines lost two of their top three guys half way through the year to season-ending injuries. They have dropped seven of their last nine games coming into this one. They seemed to let a season’s worth of frustrations come pouring out last game in their regular-season home finale as they hammered Rutgers in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. Illinois is on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and needs to make an impression this weekend in the Big Ten tournament. The Illini jumped out to a quick lead last game in Purdue but were steamrolled in the 2nd half of that game. This is a decent squad who lost their last four games to four of the better teams in conference, and three of those on the road. No doubt they will put forth their full attention to Michigan in this one with what’s at stake but also due to fact they needed overtime to beat Michigan in their last game against them a few weeks back.

NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take Tulane over Houston (6 p.m., Thursday, March 12)
Tulane from the C-USA Conference Tournament. The Green Wave finished the regular season with a road win, and I think they start their postseason with a victory as well. Tulane lost to this Houston team at home on Senior Night Just last week, so here’s a good opportunity to keep their season going and exact some revenge for that loss to the Cougars in the process. Houston won just four of its 18 league games this season, so we’ll appropriately fade them in this spot. Also make sure to grab our full host of rated plays as we go for a fifth straight profitable college hoops weekend.

NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Robert Ferringo

Take Delaware State (-1) over Howard (8:30 p.m., Thursday, March 12)
Delaware State cost me on Monday thanks to three missed front ends of one-and-ones against Savannah State. But they really controlled that game, and I think that they will have some momentum going into this one. Howard is not a better team than DSU; they simply were a little better navigating an easier schedule. Delaware State won the only meeting this year, and they have beaten Howard five of the last seven times. Further, they are a lower seed but they are favored over the higher seed. That usually is a red flag. Delaware State has won three straight games, and they have already worked out the nerves of playing in the conference tournament. Howard hasn’t taken the court since March 4, and I expect them to have a little bit of rust when this one starts up. Howard has been a little banged up, and only two of their 16 wins this year have come against teams rated higher than they are (which Delaware State is). This should be a close game, but go with the Hornets in this one.

NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports

Take #586 Long Beach State over Hawaii (5:30 p.m., Thursday, March 12)
The 49ers underachieved in the Big West this season, but they get one last chance to make amends for that in the conference tournament in Anaheim, CA. The Beach also has revenge on their minds as Hawaii beat them by 19 points in the island in late February. But the Warriors are a much different team on the mainland, and playing close to home will benefit Long Beach State in this game and allow them to cover this small number.