Getting into this daily fantasy NBA stuff. I have a model that predicts every player's fantasy points, takes in the daily salary, and selects an optimal lineup (maximizes fantasy points subject to the salary cap).
Obviously predicting player fantasy points is the key here. I basically use an exponentially weighted moving average of season stats, averaged with the EWMA that the other team's defense allows against that position, and throw in some additional factors.
I'd really like to add prop lines to my calculation. If my model is kicking out that LeBron will score 33 points but his posted prop total is 27.5, I want to factor that in. Of course if my calculation is consistently more accurate at predicting than the prop line, I should just quit fantasy basketball and bet props. That is still TBD though, I'm still playing with the model.
Anyway, all this to say, where should I go that would have the most regular season player props? 5dimes?
Obviously predicting player fantasy points is the key here. I basically use an exponentially weighted moving average of season stats, averaged with the EWMA that the other team's defense allows against that position, and throw in some additional factors.
I'd really like to add prop lines to my calculation. If my model is kicking out that LeBron will score 33 points but his posted prop total is 27.5, I want to factor that in. Of course if my calculation is consistently more accurate at predicting than the prop line, I should just quit fantasy basketball and bet props. That is still TBD though, I'm still playing with the model.
Anyway, all this to say, where should I go that would have the most regular season player props? 5dimes?
