[h=1]Conference tourney betting guide[/h][h=3]League tournaments provide some soft spots for savvy bettors to exploit[/h]
By Dave Tuley and David Solar | ESPN Insider
The madness has already begun.
While the vast majority of recreational college basketball bettors are waiting for Selection Sunday, sharp bettors already have been firing away because they know some of the best wagering opportunities of the year happen during the conference basketball tournaments in the two weeks prior to the Big Dance.
For one thing, with every league -- except the Ivy -- having a conference tournament, there are far more games than during the actual NCAA tournament. And it's harder for bookmakers to have sharp lines on every game, so there are some soft spots for bettors to exploit.
I touched on some of the things I like to look for in conference tourney underdogs in my "Tuesdays With Tuley" column last week. To summarize, I like teams that are getting hot at the right time and making one last push for an NCAA bid. These can be "bubble teams," but also teams that are clearly also-rans.
Now don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you should play every team in a "must-win situation," because I've long said that quite often, teams like that aren't consistent enough to "flip the switch" when they need to. If they were, they would have started winning sooner and not be in their current situation. I usually like when I can find a spot when they're facing a team that could lack motivation, such as a team that's already locked up an NCAA bid or not likely to be able to improve its seed much.
We already saw some examples last week:
• Belmont made a run in the Ohio Valley Conference and was a 6-point underdog in the title game against Murray State, which most people saw as an NCAA lock with its 25-game winning streak (and their players must have been feeling the same, even though bracketologists such as Joe Lunardi warned that the Racers weren't a shoo-in). Belmont looked like the more motivated team in pulling off the 88-87 upset.<offer></offer>
• Here in Vegas, the West Coast Conference saw Gonzaga and BYU advance last Saturday, but both failed to cover as big favorites: Gonzaga outlasted San Francisco 81-72 as a 16.5-point favorite, while BYU squeaked by Santa Clara 78-76 as a 12.5-point fave.
• In the Missouri Valley, Illinois State shocked Wichita State (an NCAA lock) 65-62 as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. However, here's where I point out that these situations don't always pan out, as Illinois State fell short in trying to steal a bid, losing 69-60 to Northern Iowa as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Still, it shows that this is a great time to look for live underdogs.
Now it's time to look forward to the major conference tournaments taking place this week. Before I get to my thoughts on specific teams, let's get some input from the folks at Sports Insights.
[h=3]Big underdog system from Sports Insights[/h]While the NCAA tournament might be the proverbial main course, conference tournament week is the tasty hors d'oeuvre that can one-up the entrée.
As Mr. Tuley mentioned, sharp bettors often prefer conference tournament week because they can select from a larger pool of games. While only 68 teams make the Big Dance, nearly all 351 Division I schools can earn a spot in the NCAA tournament by winning their respective conference championship game.
Our past research has revealed that large underdogs are typically undervalued during the regular season. We were curious about whether this trend continued during the postseason, and tested this hypothesis using our Bet Labs software.
We found that underdogs actually have a losing record (1,151-1,165 ATS) in conference tournament games since 2005. However, we noticed a direct correlation between larger spreads and higher winning percentages.
Underdogs of at least 4 points have gone 764-750 ATS (50.46 percent), while underdogs of at least 6 points have gone 558-524 ATS (51.57 percent). Unfortunately, both of these data ranges are below the 52.38 percent threshold bettors need to beat the standard minus-110 juice.
When we focus on 'dogs of 8-plus points, the record improves to 395-355 ATS (52.66 percent). Once we found this profitable data range, we added a variety of filters, which have proved lucrative during regular-season play as well.
First we reviewed games with low totals, our theory being that large underdogs have a higher probability of covering the spread when oddsmakers anticipate low scores. We discovered that by analyzing games with an over/under of less than 132, our return on investment (ROI) nearly tripled, as our system produced a 172-129 ATS record with plus-35.17 units won and an 11.7 percent ROI.
Next, we pinpointed teams that had played within the past week. Our reasoning? Bettors typically overvalue well-rested teams, and long layoffs can result in rusty performances. This simple addition improved our system record to 147-104 ATS (plus-36.32 units, 14.5 percent ROI).
Our final step was to examine a sharp money indicator based on line movement. Whenever a line gets worse (i.e., a line moves from plus-10 to plus-8 or from minus-5 to minus-7), it indicates that one team is receiving more action than its opponent (in the above examples, the favorite).
By focusing on underdogs that saw the line either drop or remain unchanged, we further enhanced our system. This modification led to a record of 77-46 ATS (62.6 percent) with plus-27.8 units won and a 22.6 percent ROI. Although this inclusion leads to a smaller sample size earning fewer units, many bettors prefer systems with a higher expected return, which correlates with our improved ROI.
[h=4]Conference tournament underdogs of 8+, O/U <132 (since 2005)[/h]
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Although there are no current game matches for this system, bettors can track the latest odds and public betting trends by visiting the ESPN live odds page, powered by Sports Insights.
[h=3]Tuley's Take on
Championship Week underdog spot plays[/h]As stated by Sports Insights, it's difficult to project matchups early in the week that fit our separate criteria (though we're sure to have some overlapping plays), so we'll be back during the week to update this file with games that fit. But I do want to expand on one part of the Big Ten bracket that I'll be monitoring closely.
Although there are no current game matches for this system, bettors can track the latest odds and public betting trends by visiting the ESPN live odds page, powered by Sports Insights.
[h=3]Tuley's Take on Championship Week underdog spot plays[/h]As stated by Sports Insights, it's difficult to project matchups early in the week that fit our separate criteria (though we're sure to have some overlapping plays), so we'll be back during the week to update this file with games that fit. But I do want to expand on one part of the Big Ten bracket that I'll be monitoring closely.
If you've been reading ESPN's other conference tourney articles, you're probably well aware that Indiana is on the bubble. Now, if the Hoosiers get past Northwestern on Thursday and face Maryland, I like their chances to knock off the Terrapins or at least cover. (Relevant note: Indiana already beat Maryland 89-70 on Jan. 22 and also covered in a 68-66 loss at Maryland on Feb. 11.)However, even though everyone, or at least Lunardi, is saying Indiana must win Thursday (and the Hoosiers will be a popular play as about a 3.5-point favorite over the Wildcats), I wouldn't bet the Hoosiers in that spot, especially given that they lost 72-65 at NU on Feb. 25 to put themselves in this position. However, definitely give me the Indiana/Northwestern winner against Maryland on Friday.
Again, we'll be back with more later in the week, or feel free to ask about specific games in the comments section.
If you're thinking about betting a team to win its tourney, the most profitable way is usually to bet the money line on the team's first game and then parlay your winnings all the way to the title game. A team's odds are often based on the assumed opponents it will face. The times that a team ends up paying better in its fixed-odds future is when it ends up facing a team that has upset a better-seeded team, so it ends up being favored when it was assumed it would be an underdog if form had held. If you can forecast those upsets ahead of time, you're better off taking the money line in those games and not sweating a team having to cut down the nets.
The most obvious is Auburn getting a whopping 23.5 points against undefeated Kentucky. The caveat is that the Wildcats beat the Tigers 100-75 (covering as a 25-point favorite in their only meeting), so this is a case of whether Auburn can stay close and also whether UK will be inclined to run up the score. This is a situation when I think the stronger play is the underdog in the first half (Auburn plus-14). Wyoming, also needing to run the table, was also blown out in its previous meeting with San Diego State, but the Aztecs are 2-4 ATS down the stretch as they coast to the NCAA tourney -- so they've been letting teams stick around. There are a few other potential plays that I considered, but the lines are too short for my liking (Rhode Island plus-1.5 vs. Dayton, Middle Tennessee St. plus-2 vs. UAB, Temple plus-4 vs. SMU).
So, my best bets for Saturday are:
Auburn plus-14 in first half vs. Kentucky (plus-23.5 for the game)
Wyoming plus-6 vs. San Diego State
Solar:
1. Seattle plus-9.5 vs. New Mexico State (O/U 118.5)
2. Purdue plus-9.5 vs. Wisconsin (O/U 125.5)
By Dave Tuley and David Solar | ESPN Insider
The madness has already begun.
While the vast majority of recreational college basketball bettors are waiting for Selection Sunday, sharp bettors already have been firing away because they know some of the best wagering opportunities of the year happen during the conference basketball tournaments in the two weeks prior to the Big Dance.
For one thing, with every league -- except the Ivy -- having a conference tournament, there are far more games than during the actual NCAA tournament. And it's harder for bookmakers to have sharp lines on every game, so there are some soft spots for bettors to exploit.
I touched on some of the things I like to look for in conference tourney underdogs in my "Tuesdays With Tuley" column last week. To summarize, I like teams that are getting hot at the right time and making one last push for an NCAA bid. These can be "bubble teams," but also teams that are clearly also-rans.
Now don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you should play every team in a "must-win situation," because I've long said that quite often, teams like that aren't consistent enough to "flip the switch" when they need to. If they were, they would have started winning sooner and not be in their current situation. I usually like when I can find a spot when they're facing a team that could lack motivation, such as a team that's already locked up an NCAA bid or not likely to be able to improve its seed much.
We already saw some examples last week:
• Belmont made a run in the Ohio Valley Conference and was a 6-point underdog in the title game against Murray State, which most people saw as an NCAA lock with its 25-game winning streak (and their players must have been feeling the same, even though bracketologists such as Joe Lunardi warned that the Racers weren't a shoo-in). Belmont looked like the more motivated team in pulling off the 88-87 upset.<offer></offer>
• Here in Vegas, the West Coast Conference saw Gonzaga and BYU advance last Saturday, but both failed to cover as big favorites: Gonzaga outlasted San Francisco 81-72 as a 16.5-point favorite, while BYU squeaked by Santa Clara 78-76 as a 12.5-point fave.
• In the Missouri Valley, Illinois State shocked Wichita State (an NCAA lock) 65-62 as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. However, here's where I point out that these situations don't always pan out, as Illinois State fell short in trying to steal a bid, losing 69-60 to Northern Iowa as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Still, it shows that this is a great time to look for live underdogs.
Now it's time to look forward to the major conference tournaments taking place this week. Before I get to my thoughts on specific teams, let's get some input from the folks at Sports Insights.
[h=3]Big underdog system from Sports Insights[/h]While the NCAA tournament might be the proverbial main course, conference tournament week is the tasty hors d'oeuvre that can one-up the entrée.
As Mr. Tuley mentioned, sharp bettors often prefer conference tournament week because they can select from a larger pool of games. While only 68 teams make the Big Dance, nearly all 351 Division I schools can earn a spot in the NCAA tournament by winning their respective conference championship game.
Our past research has revealed that large underdogs are typically undervalued during the regular season. We were curious about whether this trend continued during the postseason, and tested this hypothesis using our Bet Labs software.
We found that underdogs actually have a losing record (1,151-1,165 ATS) in conference tournament games since 2005. However, we noticed a direct correlation between larger spreads and higher winning percentages.
Underdogs of at least 4 points have gone 764-750 ATS (50.46 percent), while underdogs of at least 6 points have gone 558-524 ATS (51.57 percent). Unfortunately, both of these data ranges are below the 52.38 percent threshold bettors need to beat the standard minus-110 juice.
When we focus on 'dogs of 8-plus points, the record improves to 395-355 ATS (52.66 percent). Once we found this profitable data range, we added a variety of filters, which have proved lucrative during regular-season play as well.
First we reviewed games with low totals, our theory being that large underdogs have a higher probability of covering the spread when oddsmakers anticipate low scores. We discovered that by analyzing games with an over/under of less than 132, our return on investment (ROI) nearly tripled, as our system produced a 172-129 ATS record with plus-35.17 units won and an 11.7 percent ROI.
Next, we pinpointed teams that had played within the past week. Our reasoning? Bettors typically overvalue well-rested teams, and long layoffs can result in rusty performances. This simple addition improved our system record to 147-104 ATS (plus-36.32 units, 14.5 percent ROI).
Our final step was to examine a sharp money indicator based on line movement. Whenever a line gets worse (i.e., a line moves from plus-10 to plus-8 or from minus-5 to minus-7), it indicates that one team is receiving more action than its opponent (in the above examples, the favorite).
By focusing on underdogs that saw the line either drop or remain unchanged, we further enhanced our system. This modification led to a record of 77-46 ATS (62.6 percent) with plus-27.8 units won and a 22.6 percent ROI. Although this inclusion leads to a smaller sample size earning fewer units, many bettors prefer systems with a higher expected return, which correlates with our improved ROI.
[h=4]Conference tournament underdogs of 8+, O/U <132 (since 2005)[/h]
| Criteria | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 172-129 (57.1%) | +35.17 | +11.7% |
| Rest between 0-7 days | 147-104 (58.6%) | +36.32 | +14.5% |
| Spread change between 0 and -3 | 77-46 (62.6%) | +27.80 | +22.6% |
| ** Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. | |||
| ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $2,780 ($100 x 27.8 units) following the system. | |||
| *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
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Although there are no current game matches for this system, bettors can track the latest odds and public betting trends by visiting the ESPN live odds page, powered by Sports Insights.
[h=3]Tuley's Take on
Championship Week underdog spot plays[/h]As stated by Sports Insights, it's difficult to project matchups early in the week that fit our separate criteria (though we're sure to have some overlapping plays), so we'll be back during the week to update this file with games that fit. But I do want to expand on one part of the Big Ten bracket that I'll be monitoring closely.
Although there are no current game matches for this system, bettors can track the latest odds and public betting trends by visiting the ESPN live odds page, powered by Sports Insights.
[h=3]Tuley's Take on Championship Week underdog spot plays[/h]As stated by Sports Insights, it's difficult to project matchups early in the week that fit our separate criteria (though we're sure to have some overlapping plays), so we'll be back during the week to update this file with games that fit. But I do want to expand on one part of the Big Ten bracket that I'll be monitoring closely.
If you've been reading ESPN's other conference tourney articles, you're probably well aware that Indiana is on the bubble. Now, if the Hoosiers get past Northwestern on Thursday and face Maryland, I like their chances to knock off the Terrapins or at least cover. (Relevant note: Indiana already beat Maryland 89-70 on Jan. 22 and also covered in a 68-66 loss at Maryland on Feb. 11.)However, even though everyone, or at least Lunardi, is saying Indiana must win Thursday (and the Hoosiers will be a popular play as about a 3.5-point favorite over the Wildcats), I wouldn't bet the Hoosiers in that spot, especially given that they lost 72-65 at NU on Feb. 25 to put themselves in this position. However, definitely give me the Indiana/Northwestern winner against Maryland on Friday.
Again, we'll be back with more later in the week, or feel free to ask about specific games in the comments section.
If you're thinking about betting a team to win its tourney, the most profitable way is usually to bet the money line on the team's first game and then parlay your winnings all the way to the title game. A team's odds are often based on the assumed opponents it will face. The times that a team ends up paying better in its fixed-odds future is when it ends up facing a team that has upset a better-seeded team, so it ends up being favored when it was assumed it would be an underdog if form had held. If you can forecast those upsets ahead of time, you're better off taking the money line in those games and not sweating a team having to cut down the nets.
[h=3]Saturday update[/h]Tuley: I went 2-2 ATS on Friday and had a chance for the second straight night to go 3-1 ATS, but my last play of the night came up short. A lot of Saturday's games feature two teams that are already locks for the NCAA tournament, as a lot of the bubble teams have gone by the wayside. But we do have a few spots where teams that can only get in the Big Dance by stealing their conference tourneys are playing teams that are locks.The most obvious is Auburn getting a whopping 23.5 points against undefeated Kentucky. The caveat is that the Wildcats beat the Tigers 100-75 (covering as a 25-point favorite in their only meeting), so this is a case of whether Auburn can stay close and also whether UK will be inclined to run up the score. This is a situation when I think the stronger play is the underdog in the first half (Auburn plus-14). Wyoming, also needing to run the table, was also blown out in its previous meeting with San Diego State, but the Aztecs are 2-4 ATS down the stretch as they coast to the NCAA tourney -- so they've been letting teams stick around. There are a few other potential plays that I considered, but the lines are too short for my liking (Rhode Island plus-1.5 vs. Dayton, Middle Tennessee St. plus-2 vs. UAB, Temple plus-4 vs. SMU).
So, my best bets for Saturday are:
Auburn plus-14 in first half vs. Kentucky (plus-23.5 for the game)
Wyoming plus-6 vs. San Diego State
Solar:
1. Seattle plus-9.5 vs. New Mexico State (O/U 118.5)
2. Purdue plus-9.5 vs. Wisconsin (O/U 125.5)
