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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Last three years, #1 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in the first round.

-- Since 1987, #2 seeds are 105-7 SU in first round, but 9-3 last three years; over last eight years, #2 seeds are 18-14 vs spread in first round.

-- Last eight years, #3 seeds are 20-12 against the spread in first round.

-- Odd fact; over last 15 years, the #4 seed in West is 3-12 vs spread in first round, with five SU losses. The West 4-13 game this year in North Carolina-Harvard.

-- #6 seeds have fared well recently, going 9-2-1 vs spread last three years.

-- If you must bet an 8-9 game, just take the points; over the last eight years, dogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games



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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Early thoughts, notes on the field of 68.....

13) If you look at the last 11 national champs, those teams were a combined 20-2 vs spread on the first weekend of the tournament. Teams that struggle the first weekend have seldom gathered momentum, improved and won it all.

12) Looks like Wyoming winning the Mountain West KO'd Colorado State from the field of 68; would like to be a fly on the wall next winter, when the Rams go visit Utah State, since Utah State's AD is the head of the Selection Committee.

11) Then there is Boise State, which has a play-in game in Dayton, against Dayton. How in the name of Don Donoher is this allowed? Looks like Dayton would've been the team that got KO'd had UConn beat SMU Saturday. Now they get a home game. Very bad draw for Boise State.

10) San Diego State's Dwayne Polee started his college career by playing 33 games for St John's four years ago; now the Aztecs face the Johnnies Friday in Charlotte. Steve Lavin suspended his big man Obekpa for two weeks, so he is out for this game.

9) Georgia State won a tense, ugly Sun Belt final 38-36 over Georgia Southern; after the game, coach Ron Hunter was celebrating with his son Ron Jr, when the coach tore his achilles tendon. Panthers play Thursday, so coach Hunter will be coaching with lot of painkillers in him this week.

8) Albany plays Oklahoma; Great Danes won their fifth America East title Saturday; they won a play-in game but are 0-4 in first round games, losing by 12-27-12-12 points vs marquee teams, covering three of the four games.

Sooners got beat in first round last two years, getting upset by North Dakota State LY; their last tournament win was six years ago.

7) Big East teams were 2-4 overall in tournament LY, the first post-realignment year; last two years, Big East teams are 5-7 SU in first round.

6) Eastern Washington won at Indiana this year; they're #14 in country, making 39.6% of its 3-pointers. Eagles play a Georgetown team that hasn't defended the 3 well this season. Problem is, Big Sky teams are 1-14 in last 15 first round games, and only win was Montana's win over Nevada (not a power 5 team) in '06.

5) Belmont soph Taylor Barnette started his college career at Virginia, where he played 26 games two years ago. He'll see his old friends Friday in Charlotte.

4) I was SHOCKED when I saw Manhattan in a 16-seed play-in game; am told the Jaspers were not happy at all to be in Kentucky's bracket, with the game in Louisville. Last 12 years, MAAC tourney champ has been a 16-seed once ('07), a 15-seed twice ('12 and '13)-- mostly a 13 or 14 seed.

On the other hand, if Manhattan wins the play-in game, Calipari will not ba a happy guy to face the Jaspers as a 16-seed- they lost to Louisville by 7 last year in NCAAs.

3) Duke lost in first round two of last three years and sleptwalked past Albany by 12 two years ago, but last seven times Duke was a 1-seed, Blue Devils are 5-2 vs spread in its first round game those years.

2) North Florida will be fun to watch in the play-in game; seven of its players have scored 20+ points in at least one game this season. Don't forget, Atlantic Sun schools have posted upsets in last two tournaments (Florida Gulf Coast/Belmont).

1) Surprising fact: Last ACC team in Final Four? Duke in 2010, though Louisville and Syracuse were there more recently, just before joining the ACC.
 

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NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Oddsmakers open Oregon-Oklahoma State at pick 'em

OK, the NCAA Tournament bracket is out, and there’s much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about who got seeded where, and who got left out. But let’s get to what’s really important here:

What’s the spread?

The tourney’s round-of-64 on Thursday and Friday – 16 games per day of pure basketball bliss – will have its share of blowouts, nailbiters and shockers. Covers got a trio of oddsmakers to weigh in on the games they found most challenging to set the line on: Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology; John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu; and Mike Jerome, oddsmaker for topbet.eu.


WEST REGION

No. 4 North Carolina (-9) vs. No. 13 Harvard

“These two teams are total polar opposites,” said Simbal, whose operation runs several Las Vegas sportsbooks, including the M, the Palms, Cosmopolitan and
the Venetian. “Harvard wants to score 45 points a game and win, and Carolina wants to score 85 points a game and win.

“The Ivy League does a good job of dictating pace in NCAA Tournament games. We tossed around 7 points (to) 10 points. We had more conversation about
this game than any other game.”

No. 5 Arkansas (-7) vs. No. 12 Wofford

It looks like a mismatch, but Simbal warns against leaping too quickly.

“We have Wofford in the top 30 in all of our defensive metrics, which historically bodes quite well for tournament teams,” he said, noting that puts the Terriers in the top-10 percentile among the 300-plus NCAA Division I teams. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that number creeps toward Wofford as the week goes on.”

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State, pick ‘em

“The big question is what kind of defense will show up for Okie State?” Lester said. “Because we know Joseph Young and the Ducks can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys are quite bipolar, and this could get ugly if Mr. Hyde shows up.”

Jerome chimed in on this game, too.

“If there is a game that looks like a coin toss, it’s this one,” he said. “And it makes sense, as the line is a pick 'em.”

No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 10 Ohio State (-2.5)

“VCU is a bit overrated in our eyes, but people recognize the Rams as a giant-killer come tourney time,” Lester said. “This is a good matchup, but the Buckeyes’ D'Angelo Russell should have his way here, and the absence of VCU’s Briante Weber (torn ACL last month) cannot be underestimated.”
Jerome isn’t counting out the Rams.

“Shaka Smart has his team playing great basketball when it matters,” he said. “The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have been a bit inconsistent, yet are a slight
2.5-point favorite.


SOUTH REGION

No. 4 Georgetown (-8) vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington

This game presents about as long a road trip as possible for the Hoyas, and about as short a trip as possible for the Eagles.

“It’s in Seattle. That’s always tricky, because it’s basically a home game for Eastern Washington,” Simbal said, noting he and his oddsmaking crew prefer the straight math of numbers, and that these quasi-home games skew that formula. “There was a similar situation two years ago when UNLV played California in San Jose. Do you treat that as a home game or not? And even if you don’t treat it as a home game, the public will treat it as a home game.”

Lester had some thoughts on this game, as well.

“It feels like a very similar matchup that Georgetown had a few years ago against Ohio,” he said. “The Eagles run and chuck up a lot of 3-pointers. The squares have no clue about Eastern Washington, but the sharps certainly know who Tyler Harvey is, so we had to be careful with the line.”

No. 5 Utah (-6) vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin

This could be one of those seemingly annual 12-5 upsets.

“Stephen F. Austin won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year, and they’re returning everyone,” Simbal said. “The Lumberjacks were huge favorites in all their (Southland) Conference games, and covered most of them. Utah is a team that struggled late and lost a bunch of games.”

No. 8 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 St. John’s

“The Chris Obekpa suspension complicates things a bit for St. John's. The Red Storm will have to adjust in a big way,” Lester said. “You can't ever really trust San Diego State in this tournament, but the Aztecs will have a big advantage on the boards.”

The game has no shortage of name recognition on the bench, too.

“It’s another game with some big-name coaches: San Diego State’s Steve Fisher, St. John’s Steve Lavin, and Gene Keady, an assistant with the Red Storm,” Jerome said. “Good defense vs. good offense usually equals a win by the defensive-minded team.”

No. 11 UCLA vs No. 6 Southern Methodist (-3)

“SMU’s Larry Brown faces the team he used to coach back in the 1970s,” Jerome said. “Many ‘experts’ didn’t like how UCLA got a favorable seed. SMU will likely be one of the more popular bets on Thursday. SMU opened at -2 and moved to -3 less than an hour later.”


MIDWEST REGION

No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Texas, pick ‘em

Many TV analysts were growling about Texas even getting into the tournament. For oddsmakers, it created some difficulty, too.

“We knew the trickiest team was going to be Texas,” Simbal said. “By all the statistics and the math, the Longhorns are a top-20 team. But they can’t win a close game if their life depended on it. Now, they’re playing Butler, which is a similar team. They both like to grind it out.”

The implication: Grind-it-out games are close games, which don’t typically suit Texas.

No. 4 Maryland (-4) vs. No. 13 Valparaiso

Simbal said the Terrapins are the antithesis of Texas, presenting an altogether different challenge.

“The math and the statistics don’t match up, but they win every close game. They are super good in close games,” he said, noting the Terps went 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less. “We have them at -4 as a No. 4 seed against a 13 seed. That shows how confident – or unconfident – we are in them.”

No. 7 Wichita State (-5) vs. No. 10 Indiana

“Wichita State deserved better than a No. 7 seed, and this is a tough matchup,” Lester said. “Indy will want to run, run, run, while the Shockers will try to slow everything down. We'll probably be split on this game, but the Hoosiers could easily ‘upset’ the Shockers.”

Jerome agreed with Lester.

“It seems like the Shockers got slighted a bit, while Indiana seemed to get seeded a lot higher than many thought,” Jerome said.

No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Purdue (-1)

“This is a tough draw for Purdue, because its bigs should be offset by a Cincy squad that can also bang down low,” Lester said. “It should be a very grind-it-out type of game, and it could come down to which team can hit some shots from outside.”

No. 5 West Virginia (-4) vs. Buffalo

“Coach Bobby Hurley has got the Bulls playing bullish hoops,” Jerome said. “West Virginia is only laying 4 because Juwan Staten (knee) is questionable.”


EAST REGION

No. 5 Northern Iowa (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Wyoming

The Cowboys present a dilemma because they wouldn’t be in the field if they hadn’t won the Mountain West Conference tournament, and they wouldn’t have won the tournament if Larry Nance Jr. hadn’t returned late last month after missing a handful of games with mononucleosis.

“Nance was the Player of the Year in the Mountain West, so Wyoming will have the best player on the court,” Simbal said. “But it’s very hard to handicap because of (the time Nance missed). Who knows how good they would’ve been if he had been there all year?”

Lester keyed in on this game, as well.

“I think Wyoming is a very good squad with two high-caliber players in Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Adams. The Cowboys play defense, grind, and they are healthy,” he said. “Like Wichita State, Northern Iowa got a bad draw and may be underseeded. This could very well be a 5/12 upset.”

Jerome also weighed in on the mid-major dual.

“Two schools lock horns from two of the best mid-major conferences -- the Missouri Valley and the Mountain West,” he said. “Northern Iowa has the best player on the floor in Seth Tuttle, but he could be neutralized by Nance.”

No. 4 Louisville (-9) vs. No. 13 UC Irvine

“Rick Pitino better put together a good game plan, because this is a ripe spot for an upset,” Lester said. “Louisville is overseeded, but the betting public has no clue about UC Irvine, so this is a tough line to set.”

No. 8 North Carolina State (-1) vs. No. 9 Louisiana State

“LSU really should be ashamed of the way it lost to Auburn in its last game,” Jerome said. “There’s big injury news here, with N.C. State's Anthony Barber (head). He is listed as probable to play.”
 

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NCAA East: Villanova, Virginia yin-yang of region

EAST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Villanova, 2) Virginia, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Louisville

How the East is won: What makes the East region so great is that its best teams are really more than the sum of their parts.

Villanova might have its best team in program history, even if the Wildcats can't replicate the 1985 squad that brought a National Title back to suburban Philadelphia. Jay Wright's top six scorers all average between 9.2 and 14.0 ppg, a spectacular balance that makes them incredibly difficult to guard, and he's got them playing tough defense even late in blowout games -- the mark of a team that is incredibly well-coached.

As good as the Wildcats are on the offensive end, No. 2 seed Virginia is equally as good defensively. The Cavaliers held an astounding 15 opponents to fewer than 50 points this year, including doing so against fellow NCAA Tournament teams Louisville, NC State and Harvard, who only managed 27 points in a loss back in December. Tony Bennett has a long, athletic team that plays hard and plays smart, a winning formula no matter what time of the season it is.

Very likely, the path to the Final Four will run through one of the above two teams, who both look like they're on a mission to make it to Indianapolis. Both Louisville and Oklahoma have looked shaky over the last few weeks, and it's not often in late March that teams suddenly flip a switch and become elite.

Upset Watch: There's been a trend of late of No. 15-seeds beating No. 2-seeds, especially if that No. 2-seed happens to be Duke -- which lost to Lehigh in 2012 and Mercer last year. Duke's not in the East regional, but another ACC school has to be very careful, with Virginia drawing Ohio Valley Conference champs Belmont in the first round. The Bruins are one of the top shooting teams in the country, shooting 47.6 percent from the floor -- good enough for 25th in the country. If they can get going, the Cavaliers could be in trouble.

Another team that has to be very careful early on is fifth-seeded Northern Iowa, which gets Mountain West champion Wyoming in the 5-12 matchup. Historically, the 12-5 upset happens about 40 percent of the time, and this could certainly be one of those matchups. UNI is no joke, going 30-3 out of the a very tough Missouri Valley Conference, but Wyoming took down two other NCAA Tournament teams in Boise State and San Diego State to win the MWC tournament this weekend.

Get to Know: Villanova junior point guard Ryan Arcidiacono isn't the flashiest player in the bracket, but the Big East co-MVP just gets the job done. Arcidiacono seems to come up with big plays at the biggest of times, like his feed to Darrun Hilliard to beat Butler on the road or his forced turnover against Syracuse to help 'Nova complete a wild comeback against the Orange.

The Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, Northern Iowa's Seth Tuttle of is a 6-foot-8 senior forward who averaged 15.3 ppg and 6.8 rpg, leading UNI to a spectacular 30-3 record and MWC tournament championship. The Iowa native is a versatile offensive player, with the ability to step out and knock down a 3-pointer (42.9 percent) when he's open.

What a year it's been for Albany senior guard Peter Hooley, who went through a lot over the last few months. The Australia native missed eight games in the middle of the season to be with his mother, who passed away from cancer in late January. He returned to lead the Great Danes to a miracle comeback in the America East championship game, canning the game-winning 3-pointer with less than five seconds to play in a 51-50 victory.

Virginia suffered a big blow in the middle of the season when 6-foot-6 junior wing Justin Anderson suffered a broken finger on his left hand in a Feb. 7 win over Louisville, though they would shake it off to win seven in a row without him. After two scoreless games in the ACC tournament, Anderson (12.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg) needs to get back somewhere to his usual self to help UVa to a deep tournament run.

One to see: If you're going to watch any game from the first round, check out Villanova-Lafayette. Sure, the 1-16 matchup hasn't traditionally been the most competitive in the tournament's history -- no 16-seed has ever pulled the upset -- but there's some more recent data to look at with this particular matchup.

Last year, the Leopards came down to Villanova with a very similar roster, and actually were in a tie game with eight minutes remaining before the Wildcats pulled away for a 75-59 win. Lafayette coach Fran O'Hanlon is a Villanova alum, and you can bet his players are going to be fired up about giving their head coach a chance to make history in the NCAA Tournament against his alma matter.

Rock, Chalk: This is certainly a tough region, with Villanova and Virginia both putting together stellar overall seasons against very difficult schedules. 'Nova looks like they've got the easier path to the Elite 8, given that Louisville has gone 5-5 over its last 10 games heading into March Madness, but Oklahoma isn't quite used to seeing defenses like Virginia's in the Big 12.

If anybody's going to stop Villanova's multi-faceted attack, it would seem likely to be Virginia, who's got the athletes to defend the Wildcats all over the court. In a time of year that's become known for its upsets and Cinderella stories, this is one region where the chalk holding could provide for the most entertaining games.

Numbers Inc.:

32 -- Number of wins for Villanova, a program record and tied for the most in Big 5 history.

3 -- Consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances for Albany under head coach Will Brown.

90 -- Height, in inches, of UC Irvine center Mamadou N'Diaye, a 7-foot-6 sophomore who is the tallest player currently in NCAA Division I.

0 -- The number, in miles, that Dayton will have to travel to play its First Four game against Boise State; the game, as with all First Four games since 2011 will be played at Dayton Arena.

50.7 -- Points allowed per game by the Virginia defense, which was the best in the country this season. Northern Iowa was fourth at 54.3.

See you in Indy: Villanova. The best team Jay Wright's had in his 14 years at the school gets it done, making it to the Final Four for the first time since 2009.
 

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NCAA South: Duke's demons open up region

SOUTH REGION

Top seeds: 1) Duke, 2) Gonzaga, 3) Iowa State, 4) Georgetown

How the South is won: Given Duke's recent one-and-done flameouts the last two years, one can make a case this is the most wide-open region. Arguably the best Gonzaga team in Mark Few's tenure and a resilient Iowa State side can be considered the Blue Devils' equals at this stage, although Georgetown as a No. 4 seed seems somewhat surprising.

One thing in Duke's favor is that none of the top four seeds have really made memorable postseason runs in recent years. Gonzaga went into the tournament as a No. 1 seed two years ago and was ousted by Wichita State in the third round, a loss which looked a bit better when the Shockers reached the Final Four. Iowa State was a Sweet 16 team last year.

While Utah slumped near season's end, the Utes appear to have gotten a reasonable draw as a No. 5 seed. Guard Delon Wright is the type of versatile player who can will a team to a win any time out, and if 7-0 freshman Jakob Poeltl can avoid foul trouble, Utah will have the inside-outside combo to give anyone trouble.

UCLA's inclusion in the field is somewhat surprising, given that it had just two wins in nine tries against ranked teams this year. But the Bruins looked like an NCAA team in Friday night's Pac-12 semifinal loss to Arizona.

Upset Watch: Look out for Eastern Washington against Georgetown in the 4-13 game. Eastern is the nation's second-ranked team offensively, and as Tom Crean's Indiana team found out in non-conference play, it is capable of beating a big boy.

The 10-12 seeds are also capable of blowing up brackets. Stephen F. Austin, which plays Utah in a 12-5 game, bumped off VCU last march in a second round contest.

Get to Know: A classic one-and-done freshman, Duke's Jahlil Okakor will be a lottery pick in June. Okafor may be a below-average defender, but he can score and rebound in concert like few in the college game. His post presence makes the Blue Devils a tough cover in the half court.

It only seems like Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos has been there for 10 years. The Zags' unquestioned floor leader may be the program's best lead guard since John Stockton.

Utah's hoops renaissance owes much to 6-foot-5 senior Delon Wright, the program's first two-time first team all-conference pick in 15 years. Wright routinely stuffs the stat sheet in three categories and provides leadership.

One to see: It's hard to imagine a matchup of more contrasting styles than San Diego State and St. John's in the second. West vs. East, old school coach (Steve Fisher) against the still-hip Steve Lavin, great defensive team against a team full of good athletes. This should go down to a last shot.

Rock, Chalk: With depth at every position, Gonzaga has never been better equipped for a Final Four run than it is this March. In a potential regional final with Duke, it has plenty of bigs to battle Okafor and the versatility to play at any pace.

Numbers Inc.:

1 -- The first-ever NCAA berth for North Florida.

3 -- The number of starters UCLA saw leave for the NBA last spring with eligibility still remaining.

8 -- The number of scholarship players Duke had at one point following a spate of injuries and the dismissal of senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon.

10 -- Davidson's seed this year. When Stephen Curry led it to an Elite Eight berth in 2008, it was as a No. 10 seed.

15 -- The number of wins by 20 or more points this season for Utah, the most in Division I.
 

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NCAA Midwest: Can undefeated Kentucky be stopped?

MIDWEST REGION

TOP SEEDS: 1) Kentucky, 2) Kansas, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Maryland

How the Midwest is won: The one certainty on Selection Sunday was Kentucky being tabbed the tournament's overall top seed.

That never was in jeopardy, like most of the Wildcats' games this season.

Kentucky capped its captivating campaign by romping through the SEC tournament en route to a 34-0 overall record, becoming just the fourth team to enter the Division I men's tournament undefeated since Indiana's run to perfection in 1975-76. The last three, Indiana State (1979), UNLV (1991) and Wichita State (2014).

Those Hoosiers won it all. Can Kentucky?

More than a couple teams could stand in their way.

Second-seeded Kansas, ACC tournament champion and No. 3 seed Notre Dame and fourth-seeded Maryland are obviously the top threats to topple Kentucky.

The Fighting Irish have perhaps the most confidence of anybody, though, having knocked off Duke and North Carolina on consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title.

Upset Watch: Bobby Hurley hasn't been to the Big Dance in more than two decades, but he knows what it takes to win when he is there.

Hurley, named the tournament's MVP in 1992 when he helped Duke win the national title, is heading back as coach of Buffalo after winning 23 games and the MAC tournament title. It's Buffalo's first-ever berth in the NCAA tournament, where the 12th-seeded Bulls will try and shock No. 5 West Virginia.

Twelve seeds are 8-4 against No. 5s the past three years.

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns were in the perilous position of missing the tournament altogether after compiling a 20-13 record and finishing sixth in the Big 12, but snuck in thanks to playing the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They could get past No. 6 Butler with a strong showing from point guard Isaiah Taylor, who averaged 13 points and 4.6 assists per game.

Get to Know: Kentucky forward Willie Cauley-Stein averaged only 9.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but the 7-foot junior affected more than his fair share of games with his defensive prowess.

That's hardly the only Wildcat to watch.

Kentucky guards Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker led the team in scoring at 11.3 and 10.7 points per game, respectively, while forward Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 9.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, teaming with Cauley-Stein to form not only one of the greatest hyphenated tandems in recent memory, but one of the most feared low-post duos in the country.

Notre Dame guard Jerian Grant averaged 16.8 points and 6.6 assists per game, but saved his best for last. Grant scored 24 points and had 10 assists against North Carolina, igniting a 26-3 second-half surge that led the Fighting Irish to the ACC tournament title.

One to see: If seventh-seeded Wichita State can get past Indiana, an intriguing matchup against Kansas looms. Despite an early exit from the MVC tournament, the Shockers boast a core of players who nearly finished off an undefeated season last year. Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton return to the tournament one season after watching their title hopes end in the third round in a gut-wrenching loss to Kentucky.

Luck of the Irish: Notre Dame put together one of the program's best seasons, finishing with the most regular-season wins (26) in school history. The encore was even better, knocking off both Duke and North Carolina in consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title. The Fighting Irish have won eight of their last nine games, thanks to sharpshooting from beyond the arc -- ranking 18th in the country in 3-point percentage (39.2) -- and have perhaps the best shot at beating top-seeded Kentucky.

Numbers, Inc.:

1 -- Kansas' strength of schedule

2 -- Coaches Butler has had this season after Brandon Miller took a leave of absence and never returned

78.8 -- Notre Dame's points per game, the most of any team in the region

11 -- National titles won by the region's top two seeds, Kentucky and Kansas

8 -- Championships won by Kentucky

6 -- Games Kentucky needs to win it all

38 -- Years since a team finished a perfect season with a national title

See you in Indy: Kentucky. Hard to argue with 34-0.
 

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NCAA West: Deja vu for Wisconsin, Arizona?

WEST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Wisconsin, 2) Arizona, 3) Baylor, 4) North Carolina

How the West is won: If the seeds hold, it will be a West regional final rematch from last season, when Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 in an overtime classic, as it was a one-possession game for the final 17 minutes, 9 seconds.

This is the first top seed in Wisconsin history. Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001, losing in a regional final four times since then.

The West's four seeds collectively look to be the most dangerous in the field. Baylor was tested by Big 12 fire this season, and the Bears have length, athleticism, a tricky zone defense and superb offensive rebounding. North Carolina is sometimes enigmatic, but the Tar Heels have size and do-it-all point guard Marcus Paige, who can sprinkle magic all over the bracket.

Upset Watch: The NCAA Tournament often turns into a guard's game, and No. 10 Ohio State has one of the best around in freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell, who averages 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists while dazzling with a high basketball IQ. The Buckeyes open against No. 7 VCU.

No. 13 Harvard, which draws North Carolina in its first game, is making its fourth consecutive appearance in the Big Dance. The experienced Crimson, led by Ivy League Player of the Year Justin Sears, knows all about upsets, having won one game in each of the last two tournaments.

Get to Know: Perhaps the leading candidate for national player of the year, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky is matchup nightmare. He's a 7-footer with deft feet and touch around the rim while hitting 39 percent of his 3-point shots.

Arizona has a balanced offensive attack, but point guard T.J. McConnell fuels the engine with a savvy pass-first approach. He's a pit-bull of a point guard who developed a deadly mid-range game during the Pac-12 season.

BYU guards Kyle Collinsworth and G Tyler Haws are two of the best players in program history, and their scoring power (a combined 35.9 points per game) will be a threat to watch ... if the Cougars can get past Ole Miss in a first-round game that feeds to the No. 11 seed.

Oklahoma State G Le'Bryan Nash and Oregon guard Joseph Young provide a terrific matchup of elite senior scorers in an 8-9 game, with Nash having 20 career 20-point efforts.

One to see: Fifth-seeded Arkansas went 10-3 down the stretch, with two of the losses coming to unbeaten Kentucky. The Razorbacks, led by SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (17.5 points, 8.6 rebounds per game), are in line for another blue-blood matchup in the second round against North Carolina. If you thought college basketball was an unwatchable slog this season, tune in for this one to see two teams that want to run.

Rock, Chalk: Wisconsin slipped by Arizona last season, when the Wildcats bemoaned the fact they did not have anyone to match up with the versatile Kaminsky. The answer this season could be athletic 6-foot-9 Brandon Ashley, who missed the meeting last March because of a midseason foot injury. Ashley, a junior, is playing the best basketball of his career, earning Most Outstanding Player honors at the Pac-12 tournament.

Numbers Inc:

3 -- Losses in a regional final, in three tries, for Arizona coach Sean Miller, considered by some to be the best active coach to not get to the Final Four. One of those regional final losses came at Xavier.

6 -- Triple-double this season for BYU G Kyle Collinsworth, tying an NCAA career record.

19.8 -- Points per game for Georgia State G R.J. Hunter, a potential first-round pick for the 14th-seeded Panthers.

25 -- Points for Wisconsin F Nigel Hayes in the Big Ten title game. He's the athletic X-factor for the Badgers.

41.8 -- Offensive rebounding percentage for Baylor, which grabs its own misses better than all but one team in the country.

77.8, 77.0 -- Free-throw percentages for Ole Miss and BYU, which rank third and fifth nationally, respectively. They meet in a first-round game.

See you in Indy: Arizona. The Wildcats will grind through the bracket with defense, rebounding and the leadership of T.J. McConnell.
 

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Bracket Analysis


March 15, 2015




Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed and even-money favorite in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. The Westgate SuperBook has Wisconsin and Duke with the next-shortest odds at 6/1. The Badgers and Blue Devils are followed by Villanova (8/1), Arizona (15/1), Virginia (15/1), Gonzaga (18/1) and North Carolina (25/1).


UK enters the Tournament with a 34-0 record after winning the SEC Tournament with Sunday's lopsided win over Arkansas. The Wildcats are trying to become the first team to go undefeated since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers coached by Bobby Knight.


John Calipari's team will face the winner of Manhattan-Hampton in Louisville. After presumably advancing to the Round of 32, the Wildcats will face the winner of Cincinnati-Purdue. The most likely Sweet 16 opponents in Cleveland would pit UK against West Va. or Maryland.


The bottom of the Midwest Region has teams like Kansas, Notre Dame, Butler and Wichita St. as potential Elite Eight foes for the 'Cats. I would think the Irish have the best shot at preventing Kentucky from returning to the Final Four. I say that because Mike Brey's team has a great point guard and multiple players that can get hot from 3-point land.


Unlike many other pundits, I don't think of Kentucky as invincible whatsoever. With that said, for any teams outside of Virginia, Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke and Arizona to knock off UK, it will have to produce a special performance.


But that's what March is all about.


KU and Wichita St. might meet in the Round of 32. This would be an intriguing matchup because the Shockers go to great lengths to talk about how the Jayhawks refuse to play them in the regular season. The Shockers face Indiana in the opening round.


The other No. 1 seeds went to Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin. Gonzaga, Virginia, Arizona and Kansas are the No. 2 seeds.


Villanova is the top seed in the East Region and looks to be the No. 1 seed most vulnerable of going out in the first weekend. The Wildcats will have to play the winner of LSU-North Carolina St., both of whom are capable of making deep runs.


Virginia is the East's No. 2 seed and will meet Belmont in Charlotte. The winner of the Cavs and Bruins gets Michigan St. or Georgia. If the Spartans and UVA advance, they'll square off in the second round in a rematch of a hotly-contested Sweet 16 game won by the Spartans at MSG in NYC last year.


The Sweet 16 in the East Region will take place at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. If form holds, we could see Virginia against Oklahoma in a 2/3 matchup. Villanova could be looking at No. Iowa or Louisville as an opponent in the East Region semifinals. The Panthers will face Wyoming in the first round in a game that will almost certainly have the lowest total on the board.


In the South Region, top-seeded Duke will meet the winner of North Florida-Robert Morris. The Blue Devils will face the winner of San Diego St.-St. John's in Charlotte.


I think this region has the potential for upsets galore. Georgetown, the No. 4 seed, could be in trouble against Eastern Washington, the Big Sky champs who won at Indiana and have the nation's leading scorer (Tyler Harvey, 22.9 PPG).


I think 10th-seeded Davidson, which will face Iowa, has the potential to get to the Sweet 16. Gonzaga could go down to the Hawkeyes or the Wildcats in the Round of 32. With the exception of Duke, I think the winner of a 3/6 second-round game between SMU and Iowa St. has the best chance to get to Indianapolis from out of the South.


From the West Region, I feel like Wisconsin and North Carolina will coast into a Sweet 16 showdown in Los Angeles at Staples Center. I don't see Arkansas causing any problems for the Tar Heels in a potential Round of 32 matchup in Jacksonville.


One of the better first-round games is Ohio St. against VCU in Portland. The winner of this 7/10 matchup will likely face Arizona. With that said, the Wildcats draw a tough No. 15 seed in Texas Southern. The Tigers are coached by Mike Davis, who led Indiana to the finals in 2002. They won outright at Michigan St. and at Kansas St. and played a brutal non-conference slate that also included trips to Gonzaga, Florida, Baylor, SMU, Indiana, Eastern Washington, Auburn and Tennessee.


I think form will hold in the West and we'll get UNC-Wisconsin and Baylor-Arizona in the semifinals in L.A. We'll get a rematch of last year's Elite Eight game between the Badgers and the Wildcats, who lost a nail-biter to Bo Ryan's team.


The last bid went to Dayton according to the committee's official 1-68 list. The Flyers shouldn't have to play in a First Four game, but at least they get to play at home against Boise St.


BSU head coach Leon Rice should be livid to have to play a true road game. I feel like Indiana and UCLA should be playing in Dayton rather than the Flyers and the Broncos. The other game in Dayton between bubble teams will pit Ole Miss against BYU.


The winner between Boise St. and Dayton will face sixth-seeded Providence in Columbus. The Ole Miss-BYU survivor will take on Xavier in Jacksonville.


**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**


--In his Selection Show interview on CBS, the committee's chairman revealed that Temple was the first team out of the field. Wyoming stole its bid by beating San Diego St. in the MWC Tournament finals.


--St. John's won't have starting center Chris Obekpa for the NCAA Tournament unless it gets to the Final Four. The school announced Sunday that Obekpa has been suspended for two weeks due to a violation of team rules. Obekpa is fifth in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 3.2 per game. He averages 7.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for the Red Storm, who will face San Diego St. in Charlotte in the first round.


-- After both players missed several games with injuries, West Va. is expecting to get Gary Browne and star guard Juwan Staten back this week.


-- Wisconsin senior point guard Traevon Jackson will return to practice Monday. Jackson hasn't played since breaking his foot in a Jan. 11 loss at Rutgers. He averages 9.4 points and 2.9 assists per game.


-- Georgia's Kenny Gaines is dealing with a sprained foot that kept him out of Saturday's SEC Tournament semifinals loss to Arkansas. Gaines (11.6 PPG) is expected to play in UGA's first-round matchup against Michigan St. This is the Bulldogs' second NCAA Tournament appearance during Mark Fox's tenure.


-- BYU is dealing with several injuries going into Tuesday's First-Four matchup against Ole Miss. Skyler Halford, who averages 8.7 points and 2.3 assists per game, suffered a lower-leg nerve contusion in a loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament finals. Halford has scored in double figures in 12 of the Cougars' last 15 games. According to a tweet Sunday night from BYU beat writer Jay Drew, Halford told the Salt Lake Tribune, "I am good to go. Practiced the last couple of days, felt great." Anson Winder is listed as 'questionable' after sustaining a knee injury on March 7 that forced him to miss the team's last two games. Winder is BYU's third-leading scorer with a 13.1 PPG average.


-- Valpo has lost six straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins since its 1998 run to the Sweet 16. However, we'll note that the '98 team led by Bryce Drew was a No. 13 seed like the Crusaders are this year. They'll take on fourth-seeded Maryland.


-- Double-digit seeds capable of making deep runs: Buffalo, Davidson, Boise St., Dayton, Georgia and Eastern Washington.


-- Buffalo is coached by Duke legendary point guard Bobby Hurley. The Bulls played at Kentucky and at Wisconsin during the regular season. They led the 'Cats by five at intermission at Rupp Arena and had a one-point advantage over the Badgers at halftime in Madison.


--Players capable of carrying their teams to multiple upset victories: Derrick Marks (Boise St.), Larry Nance Jr. (Wyoming), Tyler Harvey (Eastern Washington), Jack Gibbs (Davidson), R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow (Ga. St.).


-- Coastal Carolina is a No. 16 seed again and will meet Wisconsin. Cliff Ellis's team led top-seeded Virginia by double digits in the first half of last year's Tournament and was in front of the Cavs for nearly all of the first 30 minutes.


-- Alabama fired Anthony Grant on Sunday after six seasons. Grant took the Crimson Tide to just one NCAA Tournament, losing a nail-biter to Creighton in 2012, and a pair of NITs. The Tide will host Illinois on Tuesday in the NIT.


-- Florida isn't in the postseason for the first time since 1996-1997.
 

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Kentucky leads the way with top spot


March 15, 2015


The Kentucky Wildcats ended up where everyone expected them on Selection Sunday: Seeded No. 1 on their quest to become the first undefeated team since 1976.


Oh, but there were surprises when the NCAA Tournament bracket came out, too.


Big-conference UCLA and Texas made it. Colorado State and Temple did not.


Wisconsin is a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history. But the Badgers must play in the West Region, where second-seeded Arizona is certain to draw more fans.


As for those play-in games that start Tuesday in Dayton. Well, one of the teams playing is Dayton - a No. 11 seed that will have a distinct home-court advantage Wednesday night against Boise State. Generally, that's not allowed during the tournament, but there's an exception because the committee said the Flyers were the last team in the 68-team field, and thus, had to play in the opening-round game.


''It falls within our policies and procedures,'' selection committee chairman Scott Barnes said. ''It's obviously a home-court advantage but we didn't waver from that decision.''


Fans have a few days to fill out their brackets (Sorry, no billion-dollar prize available for a perfect one this year), then the action starts in full on Thursday, when Kentucky headlines the slate against the winner of a play-in game between No. 16 seeds Manhattan and Hampton. A `1' has never lost to a `16.'


The other No. 1 seeds were Villanova in the East and Duke in the South. Those were pretty easy picks.


And then there was the total no-brainer - placing Kentucky at the top of the Midwest Region, and at the very top of the bracket. The Wildcats defeated Arkansas 78-63 on Sunday to improve to 34-0. If they win six more, they'll become the first team since then 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers to go undefeated.


''I think I have the best team and the best players,'' said coach John Calipari, trying to lead the program to its ninth national title. ''Does that mean we'll win? No, it doesn't.''


The Wildcats are even-money picks in Las Vegas to win it all, and at least one coach, Bill Self of Kansas, thinks that might be a bargain.


''I shouldn't be talking about Vegas, but my point is, I think they're a pretty heavy favorite,'' said Self, whose Jayhawks are seeded No. 2 in the Midwest.


Other No. 2 seeds are Gonzaga in the South and Virginia in the East.


Barnes said Arizona and Virginia were the other teams in the mix for the top seed. He defended placing Duke there, saying the Blue Devils' road wins over Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville carried more weight than their lack of a conference title.


''Those strong, very elite wins, wins on the road - and let's not forget the eye test with Duke - all were considerations,'' he said.


Barnes called placing UCLA in the bracket as a No. 11 seed ''one of the tougher decisions we had to make.'' But he defended putting the Bruins (20-13) in with an RPI of 48, which is 18 spots lower than Colorado State and 14 below Temple.


''We felt they were gaining steam,'' Barnes said. ''They did have a good strength-of-schedule, they were playing better against tough competition. An example is the last game against Arizona (a 70-64 loss in the Pac-12 title game). I think the `eye test' was also a plus in putting them in the field.''


The Big Ten and Big 12 led the way with seven teams each in the bracket.


Other teams that just missed were Old Dominion and Richmond, which lost out to teams like Ole Miss and Texas that have stronger schedules baked into the cake because they play in major conferences.


As is custom, Barnes was short on specifics, though he said Wyoming's surprise victory in the Mountain West Conference stole away an at-large bid that would've gone to Temple - the last team out.


The next team out was Colorado State. Rams coach Larry Eutaschy broke away from his team's ''viewing party'' to make a brief statement.


''They are devastated, and they should be, because they are certainly an NCAA Tournament team,'' Eustachy said.


The bracket includes its usual share of quirks and tear-jerkers.


-UCLA's first game is against SMU, coached by Larry Brown, the 74-year-old turnaround artist who is taking his third team to the NCAA Tournament. The first team? UCLA, of course.


-Harvard, coached by former Duke star Tommy Amaker, faces his old rival, North Carolina, in the first round.


-Georgia State coach Ron Hunter watched the bracket unveiling with his left foot in a cast. He tore his Achilles' tendon while celebrating his program's first trip to the tournament since 2001. The 14th-seeded Panthers open against Baylor.


-Also seeded No. 14 is Albany, which made the tournament on a 3-pointer with 1 second left by Peter Hooley, whose mother died six weeks ago from colon cancer. No. 14 Albany opens against Oklahoma.


-Wichita State is in the same region with Kansas, an in-state program that won't schedule the Shockers, and Kentucky, which ended Wichita State's undefeated season last year in the second round.


This year, it's Kentucky that comes in with a `0' in that loss column.


''Everyone is zero-and-zero now,'' Calipari said. ''That's the key to this. It's a one-game shot. It's not best-of-5.''
 

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Villanova earns No. 1 seed in East Region


March 15, 2015


VILLANOVA, Pa. (AP) - Villanova coach Jay Wright had a history lesson for the hundreds of fans that packed the student union for the Wildcats' coronation as a No. 1 seed.


''Remember, 1939. First Final Four ever, Villanova was in it,'' Wright said. ''That tradition stays strong.''


Wright had shiny reminders on the table in front of him at just how that tradition has thrived. Big East regular season champions trophy. Big East Tournament champions trophy. Awards, posters and even watches for all the coach and player of the year honors earned so far.


The Wildcats can only hope - and believe they are poised - to add to the trophy case.


Villanova waited 20 years to win another Big East Tournament title - and needed less than 24 more to find out it was No. 1 again, this time earning the top seed in the NCAA tournament's East Region.


The Wildcats (32-2) have won 15 games in a row heading into their East Regional opener against Lafayette (20-12) on Thursday in Pittsburgh. Villanova is a No. 1 seed for the second time in program history.


It's the 30th anniversary of the Wildcats' stunning upset of Georgetown in the 1985 national championship game.


''We are not done,'' Wright said to a roaring ovation.


While the Wildcats want to relive the glory days, they'd like to forget about more recent history. They were a No. 2 seed in the East last season but couldn't escape the first weekend, losing to eventual national champion UConn.


Virginia, the No. 1 seed in the East last season, is No. 2 this year and opens against No. 15 Belmont. Virginia won the ACC regular season crown for the second straight year and had the inside track for a top seed in the tournament until it lost to North Carolina in the semifinal.


''You know, ranking, seeding, all those things, that's more for fans,'' coach Tony Bennett said. ''But we've been around this long enough that we don't worry about that stuff at all.''


The Cavaliers won seven straight games after losing then-scoring leader Justin Anderson to a broken pinkie on his (left) shooting hand in a victory against Louisville on Feb. 7, then lost to the Cardinals in their regular season finale.


Anderson returned for the ACC Tournament a week after he had an appendectomy, but he was ineffective the Cavs' semifinal loss to North Carolina.


Darion Atkins, the lone senior, and junior guard Malcolm Brogdon were each named the ACC's defensive player of the year, Atkins by the media and Brogdon sharing the coaches award.


The rest of the East includes tournament regulars Oklahoma, Louisville and Michigan State. Northern Iowa, which stunned Kansas in 2010 to reach the Sweet 16, is back as the No. 5 seed after it won the Missouri Valley Conference championship.


The East Region final is March 29 at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York with the winner advancing to the Final Four.


The Wildcats have not played in the Final Four since 2009.


''We could definitely win it. We can beat anybody in the country,'' Wright said.


Up first, a date with the Patriot League Tournament champion Leopards (20-12). Lafayette head coach Fran O'Hanlon was a former standout guard at Villanova, leading the Wildcats to two wins in the 1970 NCAA tournament as a senior.


With a win, the Wildcats would face the winner of eighth-seeded NC State, another 1980s national champion shocker, against No. 9 LSU.


Other matchups in the region include: Northern Iowa vs. No. 12 Wyoming; No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 UC Irvine; No. 6 Providence vs. the winner of Boise State-Dayton; No. 3 Oklahoma and Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield take on No. 14 Albany; and No. 7 Michigan St. vs. No. 10 Georgia.


Should both teams win, Michigan State could play Virginia in a rematch of last year's Sweet 16. The Spartans won that one and lost in the Elite Eight to UConn.


With the No. 2 overall seed in the tournament, the road to Indianapolis surely goes through Villanova.
 

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Wisconsin is No. 1 in NCAA West


March 15, 2015


Wisconsin had the No. 1 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament before even playing in the Big Ten championship game.


Arizona (31-3) won the Pac-12 regular-season title and dominated Oregon in the tournament championship game, but the Badgers' resume was good enough for a top seed before beating Michigan State 80-69 in overtime of the Big Ten title game.


''We felt strong enough to keep them in that first line no matter what had happened,'' NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Scott Barnes said Sunday after the 68-team bracket was announced.


Regardless of their seeding, the Badgers (31-3) have a hard road back to the Final Four in what may be the toughest region in the NCAA Tournament.


Joining Wisconsin in the West is a gauntlet of tough teams: Arizona, Baylor, North Carolina and Arkansas. The middle seeds will likely be tough outs, too, including Xavier, Virginia Commonwealth, Oregon and Oklahoma State.


Wisconsin, ranked sixth in The Associated Press poll, opens the NCAA Tournament against Coastal Carolina in Omaha on Friday, with the winner between Oregon and Oklahoma State up next.


''You've just got to match up with who they put in front of you,'' Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker said. ''We could have Oregon in the second round again, and we've got to be ready for that. It'll probably be another test. But it's the best time of the year.''


No. 2 seed Arizona will open against Texas Southern in Portland, Oregon.


The fifth-ranked Wildcats have been playing some of their best basketball at the end of the season, closing with an 11-game winning streak that includes the blowout win over the Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game Saturday night in Las Vegas.


''For every great team, there comes a point where you really have to come together as a team and we've done a great job of doing that,'' Arizona forward Brandon Ashley said. ''It's just the right time; everyone seems to be clicking.''


The bracket sets up what could be an epic rematch: Arizona vs. Wisconsin in the region finale.


The Badgers and Wildcats played in the West Region final a year ago, when Wisconsin withstood a last-second shot by Arizona in overtime for a one-point win to earn a trip to the Final Four.


But there's a lot of work to be done by both teams before the region final March 28 in Los Angeles.


Baylor (24-9) was a surprise No. 3 seed to some, but came from the rugged Big 12 Conference, which had seven teams make the field of 68.


The 16th-ranked Bears open the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Jacksonville, Florida, against Georgia State.


The Panthers (24-9) are a strong defensive team who earned their first NCAA berth since 2001 by beating Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt title game, setting off a celebration that left coach Ron Hunter with a possible torn Achilles tendon.


North Carolina (24-11) is the West's No. 4 seed after coming up just short of becoming the first team in ACC Tournament history to win four games in four days. The 19th-ranked Tar Heels, who lost 90-82 to No. 11 Notre Dame in the ACC title game, open the NCAA Tournament against Ivy League champion Harvard on Thursday in Jacksonville.


The Crimson (22-7) earned their fourth straight NCAA appearance by beating Yale 53-51 in a one-game Ivy League playoff on Saturday.


No. 5 seed Arkansas (26-8) was blown out by top overall seed Kentucky in Sunday's SEC title game, but will be headed to its first NCAA Tournament under coach Mike Anderson and first since 2008.


The 21st-ranked Razorbacks also play Thursday in Jacksonville, opening against Wofford. The Terriers (28-6) won the Southern Conference championship for the fourth time in six years by beating Furman 67-64 in the title game.


Xavier (21-13) was considered a bubble team after losing by 17 to fourth-ranked Villanova in the Big East championship game. The Musketeers not only got in, they were rewarded with a No. 6 seed and will face the winner of the game between BYU and Mississippi in Jacksonville.


Virginia Commonwealth (26-9) had some tough times after losing Briante Weber, who suffered a season-ending right knee injury on Jan. 31, but rolled through the Atlantic 10 tournament, beating Dayton in the title game.


The seventh-seeded Rams have a tough opening game, facing No. 10 seed Ohio State (23-10) on Thursday in Portland. The Buckeyes went 4-4 down the stretch and lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but have D'Angelo Russell, a dangerous scorer who can carry a team almost singlehandedly.


No. 8 seed Oregon had a strong finish to the season despite its blowout loss in the Pac-12 title game and Oklahoma State made it off the NCAA Tournament bubble into the field despite losing to rival Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
 

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Duke earns top seed in South Regional


March 15, 2015


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Duke has earned the top seed in the South Region.


The Blue Devils (29-4) will play their NCAA Tournament opener Friday in Charlotte against the winner of a First Four matchup between North Florida and Robert Morris.


Duke is making its 20th straight NCAA Tournament appearance and is chasing its fifth national title and 12th berth in the Final Four under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils finished second in the Atlantic Coast Conference and lost to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament semifinals.


Robert Morris (19-14) earned its eighth Northeast Conference tournament title and is in the tournament for the first time since 2010.


North Florida (23-11) earned its first NCAA Tournament berth by winning the Atlantic Sun Tournament.
 

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Temple, ODU, Richmond top NIT field


March 15, 2015


Temple, Old Dominion, Colorado State and Richmond will have to settle for a No. 1 seed in the National Invitation Tournament.

The first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament were automatically given the top seeds in the NIT field, which was announced Sunday. This is the first year the tournament is doing that.


Temple (23-10), which finished third in the American, was passed over in favor of teams like Dayton and UCLA after losing to SMU in the conference tournament. The Owls will now try to make a run in the NIT, starting with Wednesday's home game against Bucknell.


The field will also include Connecticut, last year's national champions. The Huskies will host Arizona State (17-15) on Wednesday - with a possible date against Richmond looming in the second round.
 

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Dayton has home-court vs. Boise State


March 15, 2015


The NCAA Tournament will have a true home team for the first time in 28 years.


The Flyers were assigned to the First Four on their home floor Thursday night, matched against Boise State. The NCAA Tournament committee decided that's where Dayton belonged even if it means giving the Flyers a big advantage.


''Well, I think our travel's going to be a little harder than theirs,'' Boise State coach Leon Rice said. ''You get to the NCAA Tournament, you're going to play somebody really good. That's what we're going to do. Now we've got to play a road game, too.''


Rice wasn't complaining. Boise State (25-8) was worried that it wouldn't even make the tournament after losing to Wyoming 71-55 in overtime in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament.


''We're grateful, very grateful for this opportunity,'' Rice said.


The Flyers were the last team picked for the field of 68 by the selection committee, meaning it was automatically slotted for a game at the University of Dayton Arena.


''We had decided that if Dayton was an at-large, we would move that way without prejudice,'' said Scott Barnes, head of the committee. ''It is obviously something folks will talk about.''


The winner of the game on Wednesday night will go to Columbus, Ohio to play Providence on Friday.


Since 1989, teams haven't been allowed to play an NCAA Tournament game at their on-campus arena. The last time teams did so was 1987, when Arizona and Syracuse played on their home courts, according to STATS.


The First Four is an exception because there's no alternate site for an opening game. UD Arena has been home to the First Four since it began in 2011. Before that, it hosted the tournament's play-in games - called the Opening Round - from 2001 to 2010.


This is the first time Dayton wound up in one of those games.


The Flyers (25-8) were surprised to be relegated to it after they finished second in the Atlantic 10 during the regular season and lost in the conference tournament's title game to VCU 71-65.


The Flyers went 16-0 at home this season and have won their last 21 games at UD Arena, tied for the seventh-longest active winning streak in Division I.


It's the second year in a row that a local team played in Dayton. Xavier lost to North Carolina State 74-59 in the First Four last year, with Dayton fans in the crowd cheering against the rival Musketeers.


Dayton reached the Elite Eight last year by beating Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford. It'll be the Flyers' 16th appearance in the NCAA Tournament.


Dayton also played an NCAA Tournament game on its home floor in 1985, before the NCAA changed its rules. It didn't help Dayton much that time, as Villanova pulled out a 51-49 win on its way to the national championship.
 

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Tips for NCAA Tournament field on ways to beat Kentucky


March 16, 2015


There's a way to beat Kentucky.


Maybe.


So far, 34 game plans to defeat the Wildcats have been put together. Every one of them fell short. There's no shortage of theories on how to beat them - spread them out, pack the paint, shoot plenty of 3's, attack the rim - which all sound good, but none have actually panned out for an entire game on the floor.


If someone's going to actually throw the upset punch, now's the time. No. 1 Kentucky (34-0) is the top overall seed going into the NCAA Tournament that begins this week, the favorite to win it all and become the first undefeated national champion in the men's game since Indiana in 1976.


''Let me tell you, it's a one-game shot,'' Kentucky coach John Calipari said. ''Foul trouble, struggle, injury, have a bad game, someone else play out of their minds, which we have seen happen with us. ... It's not best-of-five. It's one and done.''


True, if someone makes 10 3-pointers, or scores 40, or the Wildcats all go cold simultaneously, millions of brackets will likely go poof at the same time.


Two teams took the Wildcats to overtime and six others found a way to keep the final margin within 10 points. But the Wildcats are perhaps the NCAA's biggest favorite in years isn't a fluke.


''They know how to win and they figure out how to win,'' Missouri coach Kim Anderson said. ''When they get behind they figure out how to get ahead, and obviously that's good coaching, that's good players, but it's an attitude. I think that is the most impressive thing.''


So here's three tips on how to beat them:


- LIMIT THE 3'S: Excluding the two overtime games, all six of the other teams who stayed within 10 of Kentucky for 40 minutes held the Wildcats to an average of 3.5 3-pointers in those games. That was, on average, about an eight-point savings over all other Kentucky games this season.


- GET GOOD SHOTS: Mississippi, Florida, LSU and Georgia all shot 47 percent or better in a game against Kentucky this season, losing those four games by an average of only 5.0 points. In Kentucky's other 30 games, the average margin at games' end was 23.1 points.


- ATTACK: In the eight ''close'' games, opponents shot 46 percent from 2-point range against Kentucky. In all other games, opponents shot 36.8 percent from inside the arc. And in the last three Wildcats' games decided by 10 or fewer, teams shot a staggering 57.4 percent on 2's.


Then again, they all lost.


''They're pretty doggone physically imposing,'' North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. ''Somebody said that Portland Trail Blazers are the only team in America that was taller.''


Shabazz Napier of the Miami Heat - he led Connecticut past Kentucky in last year's national title game, the Wildcats' last loss - believes defensively elite teams like Wisconsin and Virginia would have a realistic shot.


''During March Madness, it's more about who has the best guards,'' Napier said. ''You have to play their game, get up a couple points and then slow it up. But it's definitely going to be tough. I've seen some of their games - they're super-talented. They're the No. 1 team and undefeated for a reason.''


What makes Kentucky so difficult to stop is there's no absolute key guy on their team.


The Wildcats are the most balanced team in the country. And that depth is lethal.


Aaron Harrison is their leading scorer, his average of 11.3 points per game good for only spot No. 623 on the national rankings. He logs more minutes than any other Wildcat, and there are 1,134 other Division I players who average more minutes than he does. Combined, Kentucky has had players post a total of four 20-point games all season.


They come at teams in waves, and opponents don't know who to guard.


''You only have so many tricks up your sleeve to keep you in it when you are playing a team this good,'' Boston University coach Joe Jones said.


And that's the reality. For someone to keep Kentucky from cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, two things will almost certainly have to ring true.


One, some team is going to have to play close to perfectly.


Two, that team is also going to need some help from the Wildcats.


''I had said this during the course of the season,'' Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said. ''I told my team, I said, `We can beat any team in the league - except Kentucky.'''
 

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Wildcats not the only team with talent heading into NCAAs


March 16, 2015


At Kentucky these days, it's a bigger surprise when a player sticks around than when he leaves.

That's why the coach, John Calipari, is the closest thing to a household name the Wildcats have.


Yes, Kentucky - undefeated and top seeded in the NCAA Tournament - has great players. Center Karl-Anthony Towns could be the second pick in the next NBA draft, and Willie Cauley-Stein might be lottery material, too. But however you cut it, the modern-day Kentucky program is better known for its ability to keep turning over NBA talent than for the individual players themselves.


It's not like that everywhere.


Here are five players who have led the way on their respective teams' road to March Madness:


FRANK KAMINSKY: The Wisconsin big man can do it all - shoot, pass, rebound. He's a skinny 7-footer, and though his frame and game don't automatically translate to the NBA, he'll get his chance there. Before that, though, he's bringing his 18-point, eight-rebound average into the tournament. The Badgers are a No. 1 seed thanks in large part to Kaminsky, who was the Player of the Year in the Big Ten and might be the best all-around college player in America. Wisconsin's first game is Friday against Coastal Carolina.


TYLER HARVEY: This year's Doug McDermott is ... drum roll, please: Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington. Harvey leads the nation in scoring at 22.7 points a game. He scored 12 of his 18 points in the second half to lead the Eagles from 11 points down for a victory over Montana in the Big Sky title game Saturday. Next up, a meeting Thursday with No. 4 seed Georgetown. ''You dream about this moment when you're a kid,'' Harvey said. Last year, McDermott was the nation's leading scorer (and AP Player of the Year) and he led Creighton to the second round.


T.J. MCCONNELL: At 6-foot-1, the Arizona guard isn't imposing. His stat line - 9 points, six assists - won't blow anyone away. But he's a coach's son, the sort of guy who does everything right and makes sure his teammates do, too. He pumps up the crowd, keeps his team focused and is generally the kind of player that opponents can't stand. He may play his last meaningful basketball this month, but he's one of those increasingly rare seniors who will go down as great college players no matter what they do afterward. Arizona plays No. 15 seed Texas Southern on Thursday.


SETH TUTTLE: The 6-foot-8, 240-pound senior forward leads Northern Iowa in scoring (15.3 points) rebounding (6.8) and assists (3.3). He was named the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year. He's versatile - shoots 61 percent from the field but can also make the 3. UNI plays Friday against No. 12 seed Wyoming. Tuttle is a basketball junkie who hopes to coach someday. To get the program back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since its magical run in 2010, ''he's really leaving no stone unturned, as the saying goes, trying to get him better and us better,'' his coach, Ben Jacobson, said in an interview with Sports Illustrated.


JAHLIL OKAFOR: The Duke forward is proof that not every potential one-and-doner automatically migrates to Kentucky. Okafor was considered one of the two or three best high school players throughout his prep career, and has lived up to the hype during his freshman year at Duke. He's averaging 17.7 points and nine rebounds and was the first freshman to be named ACC Player of the Year. Assuming he leaves, he'll almost certainly be the first pick in the draft later this year. First up: An opening game Friday against either Robert Morris or North Florida.
 

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Shockers could finally get shot at Kansas in NCAA Tourney


March 16, 2015


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) -Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall may finally get his wish.


Marshall has been trying for years to schedule a game against Kansas, the basketball powerhouse just a couple hours' drive from the Shockers' campus. The Jayhawks have balked, insisting they have nothing to gain from a series against the Missouri Valley school.


But if the seventh-seeded Shockers take care of Indiana, and the second-seeded Jayhawks beat New Mexico State, the schools will meet in the third round of the NCAA Tournament.


``You get ready to play Indiana,'' Marshall said, when asked for his reaction to the road ahead. ``If we're fortunate enough to play in the third round, if it's Kansas or New Mexico State, we get ready to play them. We take it one round at a time.''


Kansas coach Bill Self follows the same approach. But that doesn't mean he was oblivious to the potential matchup when the bracket flashed on the screen Sunday night.


``How in the world they're a seven seed blows my mind,'' he said, pointing to the Shockers' 28-4 record and regular-season conference championship. ``I thought the Missouri Valley, to be honest, deserved a little more credit than what they got. I thought they'd be a higher seed.''


Depending on how things shake out, the tantalizing matchup between Wichita State and Kansas isn't the only possible third-round game sure to spark some interest next weekend.


---


STEVE FISHER VS. COACH K: If top-seeded Duke handles its opening game against the winner of North Florida-Robert Morris, and No. 8 seed San Diego State beats St. John's, it would set up a rematch of the coaches involved in the 1992 national championship game.


Mike Krzyzewski is still in charge of the Blue Devils, and Steve Fisher is with the Aztecs after he coached Michigan in that title matchup. Duke won that game at the Metrodome, and the Wolverines later had to vacate their runner-up finish following a series of NCAA violations.


Fisher was fired as a result of the scandal. Two years later, he took over San Diego State, and has led the program to six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.


---


NOTRE DAME VS. BUTLER: Sure, the Hoosiers are in the tournament, too. But all eyes in the Hoosier State would be on this matchup between the Fighting Irish, the ACC Tournament champions from South Bend, and the Bulldogs, who call Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis home.


Despite playing numerous times, the schools have never met in the NCAA Tournament.


Notre Dame would merely have to take care of Northeastern to reach the next round, but the Bulldogs face a taller task in Texas - and its imposing front line of Myles Turner, Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh. But hey, the Bulldogs have chopped down plenty giants this time of year.


``We really didn't focus on what our seed was going to be,'' said the Fighting Irish's Jerian Grant. ``It was all about just seeing our name there, and especially last year not being there, we wanted to hear our name and we didn't care who we matched up.''


---


VIRGINIA VS. MICHIGAN STATE: Once again, the Cavaliers did enough in the regular season to earn a top-two seed. Once again, their road to the Final Four could include Michigan State.


The Spartans were a No. 4 seed when they knocked off top-seeded Virginia in the regional semifinals last season. This time, Michigan State is a No. 7 seed and will have to beat Georgia in its opening game for the chance to play the second-seeded Cavaliers.


Virginia would have to beat Belmont to set up the rematch.


---


EASTERN WASHINGTON VS. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN: Both will be underdogs in their openers, but the potential for a high-scoring, up-and-down clash in the South Region is alluring.


The No. 13 seed Eagles, who play Georgetown in the second round, are third nationally in scoring at more than 80 points per game. They're led by Tyler Harvey, a sophomore guard who led the nation in scoring, and Venky Jois, a 6-foot-8 forward who is just as effective.


The 12th-seeded Lumberjacks, meanwhile, were ninth nationally in scoring behind the potent duo of Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker. Stephen F. Austin opens up against Utah.
 

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Names, teams and matchups to watch in the NCAA Tournament


March 16, 2015


March Madness can feel a bit like sensory overload. Games are happening at sites all over the country, often several at a time, and keeping track of everything can be nearly impossible.


Fear not. Here is your NCAA Tournament primer, a look at the movers, shakers and potential noisemakers as the college basketball season heads down the home stretch.


---


THE BIG BOYS: The tournament's top seeds were never really in question, especially after Wisconsin took care of Michigan State in the Big Ten title game Sunday.


The biggest of the big boys is overall No. 1 seed Kentucky, which is trying to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to cap a perfect season with a national title. The Wildcats open against Hampton or Manhattan, then would face the winner of Cincinnati-Purdue. But the road to 40-0 won't be easy - Notre Dame and Kansas are among the schools in the Midwest Region.


''Regardless if we were perfect or not, it's still we're only guaranteed one game,'' Kentucky forward Willie Cauley-Stein said. ''So it's really the slate is clean, whether we're 34-0 or got five losses. From here on out, you're 0-0.''


The Badgers earned the top seed in the West, opening against Coastal Carolina in a region that includes No. 2 seed Arizona. Villanova is tops in the East, and Duke tops in the South.


---


STAR POWER: Sure, there's no superstar like Andrew Wiggins this season. But that hardly means this year's dance is devoid of big-time scorers and dynamic defenders.


Kentucky has a handful of players who could be headed to the NBA, and the Blue Devils' Jahlil Okafor is the potential No. 1 pick. Jerian Grant of Notre Dame proved that seniors can still make headlines in an era of one-and-done prospects, while many believe Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky deserves the national player of the year award.


''We have a lot of goals and aspirations in the NCAA Tournament,'' said Kaminsky, who helped the Badgers to the Final Four a year ago, ''so we're going to prepare for our first game and be ready when we tip the ball up and get ready to go.''


---


CINDERELLA WATCH: These days, with thousands of games televised every season, there are few secrets in college basketball by the time March rolls around. But that doesn't mean there aren't a few players who are envisioning their own Bryce Drew moment, or a few teams that can put together an inspired run like George Mason or Butler of years past.


Want some off-the-radar players to watch? Try someone from Drew's own team, Valparaiso, such as 6-foot-10 Jamaican center Vashil Fernandez or high-scoring forward Alex Peters. Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington led the nation in scoring, while Stephen F. Austin's Jacob Parker is one of the best 3-point shooters in the country.


How about a couple of teams that could make a run? Duke icon Bobby Hurley has coached Buffalo to a No. 12 seed opposite West Virginia in the Midwest region, and everyone knows the history of the 12-5 upset. Harvard, the No. 13 seed in the West, has been to four straight NCAAs and could make fourth-seeded North Carolina a tad uncomfortable.


---


INTRIGUING MATCHUPS: The selection committee lined up several interesting matchups early in the tournament - coaches facing former teams, in-state rivals harboring plenty of hatred.


Take sixth-seeded SMU against No. 11 seed UCLA in the South. Mustangs coach Larry Brown is back in the tournament for the first time since guiding Kansas to the 1988 title, and his opener is against the team he led to the 1980 finals - a runner-up finish later vacated.


Or, take a potential third-round game in the Midwest. If second-seeded Kansas and No. 7 seed Wichita State each win, the schools would meet for the first time since 1993, despite only a few hours of highway separating their campuses. The Shockers have been trying to schedule the Jayhawks for years, but Kansas administrators believe they have nothing to gain from the matchup.


''You get ready to play Indiana,'' Shockers coach Gregg Marshall said of his team's opening game. ''If we're fortunate enough to play in the third round, if it's Kansas or New Mexico State, we get ready to play them. We take it one round at a time.''
 

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Win your pool: Here's some tips on how to fill your bracket


March 15, 2015


President Barack Obama fills one out, so does just about everyone you know.


Yes, the NCAA Tournament begins this week and that means it's bracket-picking time. We're here to help make sense of March Madness.


We want to provide you some insight on the 68 teams that were slotted into four regional brackets for the annual sports spectacle that culminates in Indianapolis on April 7. However, be advised that most people win bracket contests by picking the better mascot or team color, so use the following information with caution.


Good luck.


---


MIDWEST REGION


FAVORITE: Kentucky gets to open with either Manhattan - coached by Steve Masiello, who played for the Wildcats - or Hampton, which got in by winning the Mid-Eastern title with a 16-17 record.


UPSET WATCH: Many will pick 12th-seeded Buffalo over 5th-seeded West Virginia, with good reason. First of all, the Bulls are coached by Bobby Hurley, who went 18-2 in NCAA Tournament games when he starred at Duke. Plus, it's only a five-hour drive from Buffalo to Columbus, Ohio, so Bulls fans will travel well. (Then again, Ohio State made that same drive to Buffalo last year and lost to THE University of Dayton, prompting one of the greatest front-page headlines in Dayton Daily News history.)


THEY MIGHT DO IT: Butler was picked seventh in the Big East, changed coaches unexpectedly and then gave Chris Holtmann the job on a permanent basis. They'll have to beat two big-name programs in Texas and (probably) Notre Dame, but why not?


WORTH NOTING: Wichita State won't be happy about its No. 7 seed. Indiana will be ecstatic to just get in as a 10th-seed. Upset watch here, too.


SEMIFINALISTS: Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland, Butler.


TITLE GAME: Kentucky vs. Kansas. It's a rematch of a game from Nov. 18, when Kentucky won 72-40. This one will be closer, but not much.


TO THE FINAL FOUR: Kentucky.


---


EAST REGION


FAVORITE: Villanova, which opens with Lafayette in an all-Pennsylvania matchup. Villanova and Lafayette are barely an hour apart, and they play in Pittsburgh - basically 4-1/2 hours from both schools.


UPSET WATCH: Take a flyer on 13th-seeded UC-Irvine (and 7-foot-6 Mamadou Ndiaye) against fourth-seeded Louisville. One, it's cool to always pick teams with nicknames like Anteaters. Two, Louisville is only 5-5 in its last 10 games and just doesn't look as good as it did a few weeks ago, for many reasons.


AUSSIE, AUSSIE, AUSSIE: The Great Danes will have fans from Albany (their city) to Australia (which may as well be their adopted country). Peter Hooley left the team for a few weeks to go back to his native Australia and spend as much time as he could with his mother, who died of cancer. He then returned to Albany ... and hits the 3-pointer with about 2 seconds left to put his team in the tournament. It'll be daunting to face third-seeded Oklahoma, but New York's Capital Region loves NCAA magic (see Siena).


WORTH NOTING: Tom Izzo's seventh-seeded Michigan State team could see second-seeded Virginia this weekend. Never count out Izzo in the NCAAs, ever. ... Dayton gets a home game in the play-in against Boise State.


SEMIFINALISTS: Villanova, Virginia, Northern Iowa, Providence.


TO THE FINAL FOUR: Villanova.


---


WEST REGION


FAVORITE: Wisconsin, which could see Oregon in its second game (a rematch of a 2-7 game last season, won by the Badgers 85-77) but should escape the first weekend pretty easily.


UPSET WATCH: 13th-seeded Harvard over fourth-seeded North Carolina is tempting, but we'll go really off the board. Kevin Ware (you remember the young man who broke his leg playing for Louisville) is in the field with Georgia State, a 14th-seed taking on third-seeded Baylor. If you believe in made-for-Hollywood stuff ...


NEVER YIELD: Arkansas is probably the best No. 5 seed in the tourney.


WORTH NOTING: BYU has the triple-double machine in Kyle Collingsworth, with six of them already this season. The rest of Division I basketball - combined - has 11.


SEMIFINALISTS: Wisconsin, Arizona, Arkansas, Xavier.


TO THE FINAL FOUR: Wisconsin.


---


SOUTH REGION


FAVORITE: Duke. The Blue Devils might see North Florida in their first game; North Florida won the Atlantic Sun, the team whose champion (Mercer) ousted Duke last year in Game 1.


UPSET WATCH: UCLA was maybe the most questionable pick of all the at-large teams. Watch the 11th-ranked Bruins now knock out sixth-ranked SMU ... coached by Larry Brown ... who used to coach at UCLA. Of course.


MAGIC MCCAFFERY: Fran McCaffery has done a fine job at Iowa this season, and gets rewarded with a opening game against Davidson in a 7-10 matchup. But if the Hawkeyes survive that one, they figure to have a shot - even in Seattle - of taking down second-seeded Gonzaga. The Zags have been two-and-out in the NCAAs in each of the last five years.


WORTH NOTING: Duke's opening game will be the Devils' 22nd in North Carolina this season.


SEMIFINALISTS: Duke, Iowa State, Utah, Iowa.


TO THE FINAL FOUR: Duke.


---


FINAL FOUR


Yes, we picked four No. 1 seeds.


Kentucky over Wisconsin, Villanova over Duke.


Your national champion: In an all-Wildcat battle ... Kentucky.
 

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Sixty-eight need-to-know betting notes for 68 NCAA tournament teams

It's tough to track all the teams vying for the national title when the NCAA tournaments gets underway this week. If you need a quick crash course in college hoops, here's one defining stat for all 68 teams doing the Big Dance this March.

• Kentucky Wildcats (1) - The Wildcats limited opponents to a minuscule 0.117 assists per possession - easily the best mark in the NCAA.

• Villanova Wildcats (1) - The Wildcats generate just 42.8 percent of their scoring from 2-point shots - the 13th-lowest mark in the country.

• Duke Blue Devils (1) - The Blue Devils lead the NCAA with a whopping +15.6 first-half scoring margin at home, but post a pedestrian +3.5-point first-half differential on the road.

• Wisconsin Badgers (1) - Point guard Traevon Jackson (foot) is on track to return in time for the Badgers' tournament opener. Jackson hasn't played since Jan. 11.

• Virginia Cavaliers (2) - The Cavaliers have held foes to nine made free throws per game - the third-lowest total in the nation.

• Kansas Jayhawks (2) - The Jayhawks are prepared to play without freshman forward Cliff Alexander, who has been sidelined by what is being reported as eligibility issues.

• Arizona Wildcats (2) - The Wildcats use the charity stripe to their advantage, ranking fifth in the NCAA in free throws made per 100 possessions (26.24).

• Gonzaga Bulldogs (2) - The Bulldogs are shooting a sizzling 52.2 percent from the field on the road. Only one other school (UC Davis) is above 50 percent for the season.

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3) - Senior guard Jerian Grant was named MVP of the ACC conference tournament and leads Notre Dame in both scoring (16.8) and assists (6.6).

• Oklahoma Sooners (3) - The Sooners allow opponents to score 29.4 percent of their total points from long range – 213th in the NCAA.

• Baylor Bears (3) - Junior guard/forward Taurean Prince earned Big 12 second-team all-conference and sixth man of the year honors, averaging 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals.

• Iowa State Cyclones (3) - The Cyclones commit a foul on just 19.3 percent of their defensive plays, the fifth-best mark in the country.

• Maryland Terrapins (4) - The Terrapins are the only team ranked in the Top 12 with an assist-to-turnover ratio below 1.000, ranked 232nd at 0.907.

• Louisville Cardinals (4) - The Cardinals are a dismal 11-18-2 ATS for the year - the second-worst mark of any team earning at least 24 SU wins.

• North Carolina Tar Heels (4) - The Tar Heels were without freshman swingman Theo Pinson (foot), though he felt healthy enough to play and should return for the tournament opener.

• Georgetown Hoyas (4) - The Hoyas prepared themselves for the NCAA tournament with the 11th toughest schedule in the country, boasting a SOS of 0.5883. That included non-conference opponents Kansas and Wisconsin.

• West Virginia Mountaineers (5) - Guards Gary Browne (leg) and Juwan Staten (knee) both missed the Mountaineers' last three games and their status for the tournament opener is unknown.

• Northern Iowa Panthers (5) - The Panthers enter the NCAA tournament on a 13-3-3 ATS stretch, with one of those losses coming courtesy an 11-point win over Evansville as a 12-point fave.

• Arkansas Razorbacks (5) - The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists per game (16.5) and fewest turnovers (11.7), good for a 1.41 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 10th in the nation.

• Utah Utes (5) - The Utes have one of the biggest home-road scoring margin discrepancies in college hoops, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points at home but just 4.9 points on the road.

• Butler Bulldogs (6) - Bulldogs forward Andrew Chrabascz has averaged 11 points in three games since returning from surgery to repair a broken hand.

• Providence Friars (6) - The Friars are 18-11-1 ATS and 16-11 O/U for the year - making them one of only seven schools to go plus-5 or better in the win column in both categories.

• Xavier Musketeers (6) - The Musketeers are 2-8 O/U in their previous 10 games, with one of their Overs exceeding the total by just two points.

• SMU Mustangs (6) - The Mustangs record an assist on 24.3 percent of their possessions - good for seventh overall.

• Wichita State Shockers (7) - The Shockers shoot just 62.1 percent from the free-throw line at home compared to 74.8 percent on the road. It's the largest negative home/road discrepancy in the country.

• Michigan State Spartans (7) - The Spartans average 0.257 assists per possession. Only Pittsburgh (0.260) has a better rate among Division I teams.

• VCU Rams (7) - The Rams are the only team in the NCAA with 20 ATS losses (12-20-0) and more than 20 SU victories (26-9).

• Iowa Hawkeyes (7) - The Hawkeyes rank outside the Top 200 in 2-point shooting (46.9 percent) and 3-point shooting (33.2 percent), but are 23rd overall from the free-throw line (74.5 percent).

• Cincinnati Bearcats (8) - The Bearcats have limited opponents to 17.3 defensive rebounds per game. Only New Mexico State (17.1) has permitted fewer.

• North Carolina State Wolfpack (8) - Wolfpack guard Anthony Barber has been cleared to play in the tournament after suffering a spasm in his neck muscles during an ACC tournament loss to Duke.

• Oregon Ducks (8) - The Ducks average better than 75 points but attempt just 0.295 free throws for every field goal attempt - the 15th-worst rate in the land.

• San Diego State Aztecs (8) - The Aztecs surrender just 23.4 first-half points per game, the second-best performance in the country.

• Purdue Boilermakers (9) - The Boilermakers are one of only four programs to register at least 20 ATS wins (20-10-0), but have posted the fewest Overs of the bunch (10-18).

• LSU Tigers (9) - The Tigers are one of the most careless teams in the nation, turning the ball over 14.6 times per game (326th) and on 17.5 percent of their offensive plays (260th).

• Oklahoma State Cowboys (9)- The Cowboys allow opponents to secure 31 percent of their missed shots - the worst mark among Big 12 teams.

• St. John’s Red Storm (9) - Forward Chris Obekpa, ranked fifth in the nation with 3.13 blocks per game, won't be going to the tournament after being suspended for violating team rules.

• Indiana Hoosiers (10) - The Hoosiers will likely be without forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who suffered a scary-looking knee injury in Thursday's 71-56 win over Northwestern.

• Georgia Bulldogs (10) - The Bulldogs are 10-4-2 ATS in 16 games away from Stegeman Coliseum, including a 7-3-2 ATS mark as road/neutral underdogs.

• Ohio State Buckeyes (10) - The Buckeyes' plus-2.2 road scoring differential is the lowest of any team in the Top 20 in overall average scoring margin.

• Davidson Wildcats (10) - The Wildcats are this season's ATS darlings, posting a stunning 22-6-0 ATS mark for the season, including an 11-2-0 ATS record on the road and a 7-0 ATS mark as road underdogs.

• Texas Longhorns (11) - The Longhorns are one of the top Under plays of any team from a major conference (9-17-0 O/U) thanks to a defense ranked fourth in field-goal percentage against (36.8).

• Boise State Broncos (11) - The Broncos were a scorching 15-5-0 ATS against the Mountain West conference, covering the spread by an average of 5.5 points per game.

• Dayton Flyers (11) - The Flyers rank ninth last in the NCAA in offensive rebounding at 5.8 per game, reclaiming a paltry 21.2 percent of their misses.

• BYU Cougars (11) - The Cougars are dealing with a pair of significant injuries, as Anson Winder is sidelined with a sprained knee and Skyler Halford left the WCC championship loss to Gonzaga with a lower leg nerve contusion.

• Ole Miss Rebels (11) - The Rebels lead the NCAA in road free-throw shooting at 79 percent, but attempt just 20.8 per game away from Oxford.

• UCLA Bruins (11) - The Bruins are one of the worst road teams in the tournament, going just 2-8 away from Pauley Pavilion while being outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points.

• Buffalo Bulls (12) - The Bulls draw 21 fouls per game and make those extra shots count - ranking fifth in the nation in made free throws per contest (17.9).

• Wyoming Cowboys (12) - Passing is a critical component of the Cowboys' offense. They average 0.666 assists per made field goal, the third-highest rate in the country.

• Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (12) - The Lumberjacks rank second in the NCAA at 17.6 assists per game, the third straight season they've increased their assist total.

• Wofford Terriers (12) - The Terriers limit the opposition to 8.9 assists per game, good for seventh in the nation, and 0.424 assists per field goal made, which ranks sixth.

• Valparaiso Crusaders (13) - The Crusaders have some key players nursing injuries going into March Madness as Tevonn Walker (knee), Darien Walker (nose) and Keith Carter (toe) are all banged up.

• UC Irvine Anteaters (13) - The Anteaters rank outside the Top 300 in free throws made per game (11.5), free throws attempted (16.7) and free throws per field goal attempt (0.310).

• Harvard Crimson (13) - The Crimson limit opponents to 26.4 first-half points and 30.4 second-half points per game - both marks rank 13th in the NCAA.

• Eastern Washington Eagles (13) - Sophomore guard Tyler Harvey leads the nation in scoring at 22.9 points per game, highlighted by a 42-point performance against Idaho on March 12.

• Northeastern Huskies (14) - The Huskies were 8-1-0 O/U as a home favorite, going Over by an absurd average of 15.6 points.

• Albany Great Danes (14) - The Great Danes did a sensational job of keeping foes off the foul line, ranking 13th in opposing attempts per game (15.2) and 17th in makes (10.6).

• Georgia State Panthers (14) - Sun Belt No. 2 scorer Ryan Harrow made a brief appearance in the conference title game as he recovers from an injured hamstring, though he's expected to play in the NCAA tournament opener.

• UAB Blazers (14) - The Blazers have been a solid bet in conference play, going 15-6-0 ATS versus C-USA foes while covering by an average of five points.

• New Mexico State Aggies (15) - The Aggies boast a 13-1 conference record despite ranking 321st in 3-point makes per game (4.7) and 344th in attempts (12.8).

• Belmont Bruins (15) - The Bruins rank sixth in the nation with a 56.5-percent success rate from 2-point range, but are just 166th overall in shot attempts per game at 54.3.

• Texas Southern Tigers (15) - The Tigers are great at getting to the free throw line, ranking 16th at 24.4 attempts per game, but struggle once there, shooting just 66.2 percent (272nd overall).

• North Dakota State Bison (15) - The Bison grab 79.2 percent of defensive boards, good for second in the NCAA, and limit opponents to 6.2 offensive rebounds per game - fourth-fewest overall.

• Manhattan Jaspers (16) - The Jaspers get to the line like few other teams, ranking in the Top 10 in attempts (25.2), makes (17.5) and free throw attempts per field goal attempts (0.479).

• Hampton Pirates (16) - The Pirates finished the season a perfect 7-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 14.4 points in their limited lined games.

• Lafayette Leopards (16) - The Leopards are one of the most dangerous teams in the country from deep, ranking second in 3-point percentage (41.4) and eighth in shooting efficiency (1.181).

• Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (16) - The Chanticleers are one of the top teams after halftime in the NCAA, ranked 31st overall in second-half scoring (38.6 points per game).

• Robert Morris Colonials (16) - The Colonials struggled to contain opposing big men, allowing foes to grab nearly 35 percent of misses - 338th in the nation.

• North Florida Ospreys (16) - The Ospreys earned their first trip to the NCAA tournament on the strength of a 53.6-percent effective field-goal percentage - 31st in the country.
 

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Handicapping No. 5 vs. No. 12


March 16, 2015




Since 1990, No. 5 seeds are just 59-37 straight up (61.5%) and 44-51-1 (45.8%) against the spread vs. 12-seeds.


There have been just two years since 1990 that a No. 12 seed hasn't upset a No. 5 seed.


Three No. 12 seeds won in the 2014 NCAA Tournament as Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, and North Dakota State all captured victories.


Let's take a closer look at the candidates to continue the trend this season.


West Regional - No. 12 Wofford Terriers (+7.5) vs. No. 5 Arkansas
Date: Thursday, Mar. 19
Venue: Veterans Memorial Arena
Location: Jacksonville, Florida


The Terriers notched the regular season title in the Southern Conference and locked up a Big Dance berth for the fourth time in the past six years under coach Mike Young. Prior to breezing through the Southern Conference slate they played a gauntlet of a non-conference schedule, traveling to Stanford, NC State, West Virginia, and Duke.


That’s solid experience that they can rely on prior to this week’s matchup with Arkansas. Their top four players are upperclassmen who were around when they lost to 2nd-seeded Michigan in last year’s tournament. Defensively they rank 27th in PPG allowed and 31st in opponents three-point field goal percentage – two aspects that will be challenged by the hot shooting, high-octane offense of Arkansas. The Razorbacks have dropped three of their last six games, but two of those were against No. 1 Kentucky.


South Regional - No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Utah
Date: Thursday, Mar. 19
Venue: Moda Center
Location: Portland, Oregon


The Lumberjacks are 26-1 in their last 27 games, easily notching the Southland Conference regular season title and cruising through the conference tournament. They’ve notched their 2nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance after defeating VCU as a 12 seed last season.


Defensively this team can be a nightmare matchup. They force 16.6 turnovers per game (6th nationally) and are able to capitalize on those turnovers (19th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency). Five players average at least 8.4 PPG, including top scorers Walkup and Parker, who led the way in the upset of VCU last year. The Lumberjacks will have their hands full with 5th-seeded Utah, who enter the tournament as one of six teams that rank in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiency.


Midwest Regional - No. 12 Buffalo Bulls (+4.5) vs. No. 5 West Virginia
Date: Friday, Mar. 20
Venue: Nationwide Arena
Location: Columbus, Ohio


Many people took note of the Bulls after two strong non-conference showings. First at Kentucky (led at halftime over the Wildcats) then at Wisconsin (lost by 12 in a competitive game). This Buffalo team can score fast (25th in PPG) and efficiently (49th in adjusted offensive efficiency). They don’t turn the ball over much and they rebound well, both factors will be important against West Virginia in the round of 64.


The Mountaineers thrive when they force turnovers (1st nationally forcing 19.6 TO/G) as it leads to easy buckets off takeaways. Their aggressive play leads to a lot of silly fouls (23.2 fouls per game – first in NCAA) and they struggle to score in the half-court (41.2% from the field). WVU has dropped three of its last four games while Buffalo is riding an eight-game winning streak.


East Regional - No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys (+7) vs. No. 5 Northern Iowa
Date: Friday, Mar. 20
Venue: Key Arena
Location: Seattle, Washington


The Cowboys got to the tournament the old fashioned way: notching the automatic bid by winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament. They knocked off streaking Boise State and outlasted San Diego State in back-to-back nights. Leading scorer Larry Nance Jr. missed a string of games in February, causing Wyoming’s offense to struggle for a long stretch.


Nance appears to be back at full strength (17.8 PPG & 7.0 RPG over the last 5) and it’s no coincidence that Wyoming is playing its best ball of the year. For the first game in the tournament, Wyoming gets Northern Iowa, who many believe is under-seeded after finishing 30-3 and winning the MVC Conference Tournament.
 

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