[h=1]Best bets for Sunday's CBB games[/h]
[h=3]Analysis of Duke-SDSU and the rest of the slate, including a pick on each game[/h]By Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange | ESPN Insider
Friday's NCAA tournament action was nearly historic as the favorites (and the lower-numbered seeds) won the first 15 games before No. 6 Providence lost to No. 11 Dayton in the nightcap.
But the more impressive thing to me -- and for our purposes here as we concentrate on the betting results of the games -- was that favorites and underdogs split 8-8 against the spread. The games were still close for the most part despite the favorites pulling out win and after win.
In another betting note, after underdogs pulled outright upsets in a whopping four of the first six games on Thursday -- Georgia State, UAB, Butler (despite being a better seed) and UCLA -- the betting favorite here in Las Vegas won 25 games in a row straight up before the Providence loss (note: Oregon closed as a consensus 1-point favorite over Oklahoma State here while offshore books closed it as a consensus pick-'em, with several major books having Oklahoma State minus-1).
So, along with Dayton, all those winners have moved on to Sunday matchups. I'm joined again by Andrew Lange in previewing Sunday's round of 32 games. Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Westgate line: Virginia -5
PickCenter consensus pick
Andrew Lange: I didn't think I'd get to see an "entertaining" Virginia game this postseason but got exactly that on Thursday as Belmont was able to spread the floor, knock down some 3s, and essentially force the Cavaliers into playing normal basketball. The end result was 146 points and 130 possessions, and one of the more fluid games of the tournament thus far. Michigan State was in control for much of its win over Georgia; the key stat was the Spartans' whooping 19 fast-break points. And that's really the key to this game; it's not easy, but you can pick up a fair amount of transition opportunities against UVa. We saw Duke do so in the second half of its come-from-behind win over the Cavs back in January, and the same from North Carolina in the ACC tournament. It's Sparty's best -- and really only -- chance at keeping this one close because the half-court setting heavily favors Virginia. Look for MSU to push when given the opportunity, and with the potential for a few extra possessions and a reasonable total, perhaps we can take a proactive approach and look to play this one over the total.
ATS pick: Over 116.5
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 8 San Diego St. Aztecs
Westgate line: Duke -9.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: I'm always leery of poor offensive teams being able to string together back-to-back above-average performances. San Diego State "erupted" for 76 points (1.13 points per possession) in its 13-point, stress-free win over St. John's. The Red Storm aren't a great defensive team, but I've watched enough Aztecs basketball to know that type of performance is the exception rather than the rule. And while Duke's defensive numbers fail to impress (1.02 points per possession allowed vs. ACC), I look more at current form, and I think the Blue Devils will continue to play to the level of an above-average defense. Duke's defensive struggles will come if and when it faces a Notre Dame or Villanova type of team that can spread the floor and score from all five positions. That's not a concern here, as San Diego State ranks 259th nationally in effective field goal percentage.
However, the Aztecs more than make up for their offensive shortcomings on the defensive end, as only six of their 35 opponents topped one point per possession. Even though it'll be built into the line, it's unfortunate that this contest takes place in Duke's backyard. While not great offensively, San Diego State's physical nature is actually a really good matchup against what at times can be a soft Duke squad. At nearly double digits, despite the venue, I'm more inclined to take the underdog.
ATS pick: San Diego St. +9.5
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 7 Wichita St. Shockers
Westgate line: Kansas -1.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Dave Tuley: You've all heard the hype by now. This is the little school finally getting a chance to play the big school after two decades. Sometimes when these types of meetings happen, we see Goliath crush David, but this is perfect timing for Wichita State, which is a big-time program. And Kansas, despite being a very good team, isn't a dominant force that makes Wichita fans regret wishing for such a matchup. Wichita has the big men to battle Kansas inside and the better backcourt. I'm not a big fan of saying "the bookmakers are trying to tell us something with this line," but the fact that a 2 vs. 7 game has such a low line is a good sign that an upset wouldn't be shocking.
ATS pick: Wichita St. +1.5*
No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 11 Dayton Flyers
Westgate line: Oklahoma -4
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: We'll continue a trend with this matchup as I'm again fading the Big 12. With so many of their conference mates making an early exit, it doesn't flatter KU and OU very much. Dayton is on a roll after its win in Wednesday's First Four game and then its dominant victory over No. 6 seed Providence on Friday night, but it shouldn't be too surprising as this is pretty much the same team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. Oklahoma avoided the upset bug, but the Sooners didn't necessarily run away in their 69-60 win over Albany -- and I have Dayton as a much better team than Albany. And, fair or not, Dayton should continue to capitalize on the advantage of playing behind a home-state crowd.
ATS pick: Dayton +4*
No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes
Westgate line: Gonzaga -6
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: As handicappers, we have to avoid having knee-jerk reactions and putting too much stock in one game or one day's worth of games. I have to admit I regarded Iowa as an above-average team, but I really thought Davidson was going to win Friday. And on all my brackets, I had Gonzaga moving past either team. However, after watching most of the Hawkeyes' 83-52 rout, I couldn't help looking ahead to their game against Gonzaga and seeing they're going to match up very well with the Zags. While Gonzaga has 6-foot-10 Kyle Wiltjer and 7-1 Przemek Karnowski, Iowa has big men as well, including leading scorer Aaron White (26 points against Gonzaga) at 6-9, Jarrod Uthoff at 6-9 and Peter Jok at 6-6. Watching North Dakota State stay within striking distance of Gonzaga convinced me that Iowa could have success inside and outside. I hope my eyes weren't deceiving me.
ATS pick: Iowa +6*
No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Westgate line: Wisconsin -12
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: I'm curious to see who is able to control tempo in this matchup as face-paced Oregon takes on methodical but ultra-efficient Wisconsin. I believe the Badgers will keep the possessions to a minimum since high-percentage, open looks should be abundant late in the shot clock against a so-so Oregon defense. What the Ducks have in their favor is speed and athleticism, something the Badgers didn't see a lot of in the Big Ten. When Oregon has the ball, it won't shy away from pushing the pace and attacking, knowing that Wisconsin is the far superior team in the half court. These two squads hooked up in the second round of last year's tournament, with Wisconsin prevailing 85-77. Oregon led that game 49-37 at the half before being held to 28 points in the second frame. It's one game and took place a year ago, but I find it amazing that UO's Joseph Young scored 29 points, and the Ducks shot nearly 50 percent from the floor, 44 percent on 3s and 91.3 percent (21-of-23) from the free throw line -- and still lost by eight points. The current price tag seems high at minus-12, but I'd sit back and wait to see if you can get a cheaper price with the dominant favorite.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers
Westgate line: PK
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: Maryland and West Virginia managed to avoid being upset on Friday, posting single-digit wins over mid-major foes. As mentioned before, West Virginia will have the element of surprise in its favor. It's very hard to replicate the Mountaineers' frenetic style; we saw them jump out to a 13-point lead over Buffalo in the first half. But the Bulls didn't panic, slowly climbed back into the game, and were tied with less than three minutes remaining. It was a WVU-esque box score as the squads combined for 52 free throws, 23 offensive rebounds and 29 turnovers. The pace, though, was slower than projected -- a common theme this tournament -- with 130 total possessions. That's about the pace I project in this matchup, with Maryland really slowing down the pace and living off its defense of late (59.8 PPG allowed last eight games). If the total holds at 138/137.5, I would look to play under.
ATS pick: Under 137.5*
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 5 Northern Iowa Panthers
Westgate line: Northern Iowa -2.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: The nightcap features the only game with the worse-seeded team favored. And I get it; I'm not very high on Louisville myself, and its struggle to put away Cal-Irvine reinforces that opinion. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa continues to impress, with its 71-54 rout of Wyoming fresh in everyone's mind. However, I believe this line is too much of an overreaction. In the CBB Vegas Rankings before the tournament, our panel had Louisville as a full 3 points better than Northern Iowa. With the oddsmakers flipping the favorite (most books opened Northern Iowa minus-1) and more than 70 percent of the bets coming in on the Panthers and driving it even higher, I have to go contrarian. While Northern Iowa has Seth Tuttle, Louisville -- though not as strong and deep as we're used to seeing -- still might have the two best players on the floor, Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell. And the Cardinals have Rick Pitino on the sideline, too.
[h=3]Analysis of Duke-SDSU and the rest of the slate, including a pick on each game[/h]By Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange | ESPN Insider
Friday's NCAA tournament action was nearly historic as the favorites (and the lower-numbered seeds) won the first 15 games before No. 6 Providence lost to No. 11 Dayton in the nightcap.
But the more impressive thing to me -- and for our purposes here as we concentrate on the betting results of the games -- was that favorites and underdogs split 8-8 against the spread. The games were still close for the most part despite the favorites pulling out win and after win.
In another betting note, after underdogs pulled outright upsets in a whopping four of the first six games on Thursday -- Georgia State, UAB, Butler (despite being a better seed) and UCLA -- the betting favorite here in Las Vegas won 25 games in a row straight up before the Providence loss (note: Oregon closed as a consensus 1-point favorite over Oklahoma State here while offshore books closed it as a consensus pick-'em, with several major books having Oklahoma State minus-1).
So, along with Dayton, all those winners have moved on to Sunday matchups. I'm joined again by Andrew Lange in previewing Sunday's round of 32 games. Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Westgate line: Virginia -5
PickCenter consensus pick
Andrew Lange: I didn't think I'd get to see an "entertaining" Virginia game this postseason but got exactly that on Thursday as Belmont was able to spread the floor, knock down some 3s, and essentially force the Cavaliers into playing normal basketball. The end result was 146 points and 130 possessions, and one of the more fluid games of the tournament thus far. Michigan State was in control for much of its win over Georgia; the key stat was the Spartans' whooping 19 fast-break points. And that's really the key to this game; it's not easy, but you can pick up a fair amount of transition opportunities against UVa. We saw Duke do so in the second half of its come-from-behind win over the Cavs back in January, and the same from North Carolina in the ACC tournament. It's Sparty's best -- and really only -- chance at keeping this one close because the half-court setting heavily favors Virginia. Look for MSU to push when given the opportunity, and with the potential for a few extra possessions and a reasonable total, perhaps we can take a proactive approach and look to play this one over the total.
ATS pick: Over 116.5
Westgate line: Duke -9.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: I'm always leery of poor offensive teams being able to string together back-to-back above-average performances. San Diego State "erupted" for 76 points (1.13 points per possession) in its 13-point, stress-free win over St. John's. The Red Storm aren't a great defensive team, but I've watched enough Aztecs basketball to know that type of performance is the exception rather than the rule. And while Duke's defensive numbers fail to impress (1.02 points per possession allowed vs. ACC), I look more at current form, and I think the Blue Devils will continue to play to the level of an above-average defense. Duke's defensive struggles will come if and when it faces a Notre Dame or Villanova type of team that can spread the floor and score from all five positions. That's not a concern here, as San Diego State ranks 259th nationally in effective field goal percentage.
However, the Aztecs more than make up for their offensive shortcomings on the defensive end, as only six of their 35 opponents topped one point per possession. Even though it'll be built into the line, it's unfortunate that this contest takes place in Duke's backyard. While not great offensively, San Diego State's physical nature is actually a really good matchup against what at times can be a soft Duke squad. At nearly double digits, despite the venue, I'm more inclined to take the underdog.
ATS pick: San Diego St. +9.5
Westgate line: Kansas -1.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Dave Tuley: You've all heard the hype by now. This is the little school finally getting a chance to play the big school after two decades. Sometimes when these types of meetings happen, we see Goliath crush David, but this is perfect timing for Wichita State, which is a big-time program. And Kansas, despite being a very good team, isn't a dominant force that makes Wichita fans regret wishing for such a matchup. Wichita has the big men to battle Kansas inside and the better backcourt. I'm not a big fan of saying "the bookmakers are trying to tell us something with this line," but the fact that a 2 vs. 7 game has such a low line is a good sign that an upset wouldn't be shocking.
ATS pick: Wichita St. +1.5*
Westgate line: Oklahoma -4
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: We'll continue a trend with this matchup as I'm again fading the Big 12. With so many of their conference mates making an early exit, it doesn't flatter KU and OU very much. Dayton is on a roll after its win in Wednesday's First Four game and then its dominant victory over No. 6 seed Providence on Friday night, but it shouldn't be too surprising as this is pretty much the same team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. Oklahoma avoided the upset bug, but the Sooners didn't necessarily run away in their 69-60 win over Albany -- and I have Dayton as a much better team than Albany. And, fair or not, Dayton should continue to capitalize on the advantage of playing behind a home-state crowd.
ATS pick: Dayton +4*
Westgate line: Gonzaga -6
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: As handicappers, we have to avoid having knee-jerk reactions and putting too much stock in one game or one day's worth of games. I have to admit I regarded Iowa as an above-average team, but I really thought Davidson was going to win Friday. And on all my brackets, I had Gonzaga moving past either team. However, after watching most of the Hawkeyes' 83-52 rout, I couldn't help looking ahead to their game against Gonzaga and seeing they're going to match up very well with the Zags. While Gonzaga has 6-foot-10 Kyle Wiltjer and 7-1 Przemek Karnowski, Iowa has big men as well, including leading scorer Aaron White (26 points against Gonzaga) at 6-9, Jarrod Uthoff at 6-9 and Peter Jok at 6-6. Watching North Dakota State stay within striking distance of Gonzaga convinced me that Iowa could have success inside and outside. I hope my eyes weren't deceiving me.
ATS pick: Iowa +6*
Westgate line: Wisconsin -12
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: I'm curious to see who is able to control tempo in this matchup as face-paced Oregon takes on methodical but ultra-efficient Wisconsin. I believe the Badgers will keep the possessions to a minimum since high-percentage, open looks should be abundant late in the shot clock against a so-so Oregon defense. What the Ducks have in their favor is speed and athleticism, something the Badgers didn't see a lot of in the Big Ten. When Oregon has the ball, it won't shy away from pushing the pace and attacking, knowing that Wisconsin is the far superior team in the half court. These two squads hooked up in the second round of last year's tournament, with Wisconsin prevailing 85-77. Oregon led that game 49-37 at the half before being held to 28 points in the second frame. It's one game and took place a year ago, but I find it amazing that UO's Joseph Young scored 29 points, and the Ducks shot nearly 50 percent from the floor, 44 percent on 3s and 91.3 percent (21-of-23) from the free throw line -- and still lost by eight points. The current price tag seems high at minus-12, but I'd sit back and wait to see if you can get a cheaper price with the dominant favorite.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12
Westgate line: PK
PickCenter consensus pick
Lange: Maryland and West Virginia managed to avoid being upset on Friday, posting single-digit wins over mid-major foes. As mentioned before, West Virginia will have the element of surprise in its favor. It's very hard to replicate the Mountaineers' frenetic style; we saw them jump out to a 13-point lead over Buffalo in the first half. But the Bulls didn't panic, slowly climbed back into the game, and were tied with less than three minutes remaining. It was a WVU-esque box score as the squads combined for 52 free throws, 23 offensive rebounds and 29 turnovers. The pace, though, was slower than projected -- a common theme this tournament -- with 130 total possessions. That's about the pace I project in this matchup, with Maryland really slowing down the pace and living off its defense of late (59.8 PPG allowed last eight games). If the total holds at 138/137.5, I would look to play under.
ATS pick: Under 137.5*
Westgate line: Northern Iowa -2.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Tuley: The nightcap features the only game with the worse-seeded team favored. And I get it; I'm not very high on Louisville myself, and its struggle to put away Cal-Irvine reinforces that opinion. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa continues to impress, with its 71-54 rout of Wyoming fresh in everyone's mind. However, I believe this line is too much of an overreaction. In the CBB Vegas Rankings before the tournament, our panel had Louisville as a full 3 points better than Northern Iowa. With the oddsmakers flipping the favorite (most books opened Northern Iowa minus-1) and more than 70 percent of the bets coming in on the Panthers and driving it even higher, I have to go contrarian. While Northern Iowa has Seth Tuttle, Louisville -- though not as strong and deep as we're used to seeing -- still might have the two best players on the floor, Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell. And the Cardinals have Rick Pitino on the sideline, too.
