Final Four betting guide
Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider
March Madness once against lived up to its reputation with a lot of drama and some shocking upsets, but we're pretty much where we always are -- with three No. 1 seeds and a Cinderella story.
It all seems so familiar, especially because we have perennial powers Kentucky and Duke playing on the final weekend, as they have done so many times, plus Wisconsin making a return trip to the Final Four. Oh, and seeing Michigan State here isn't as shocking as a No. 7 seed would usually be.
</podcast></p>After four of the first six games on the opening Thursday of the NCAA tournament were outright upsets (No. 14 UAB over No. 3 Iowa St.; No. 14 Georgia St. over No. 3 Baylor; Butler over Texas; and No. 11 UCLA over No. 6 SMU), favorites mostly continued to survive and advance. Underdogs, however, held their own against the spread but lead just 31-29 ATS heading into the weekend against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. (Note: The game most open to debate is Oregon-Oklahoma State, which I graded as Oregon covering as a 1-point favorite, which was the consensus closing line in Vegas, while offshore was a consensus pick 'em, with a few books closing with Oklahoma State favored.) Anyway, there hasn't been much edge to playing favorites or 'dogs. In totals wagering, unders have a slightly better record at 32-26-2 (55.2 percent).
As always, we should look at matchups on a game-by-game basis, so what follows is our Final Four betting guide. I'll give my take on the two matchups and also get the opinions of my fellow ESPN college basketball handicappers Andrew Lange (sportsmemo.com) and Geoff Kulesa (wunderdog.com). We'll also share the power ratings from our CBB Vegas Rankings panel and get some systems and trends analysis from David Solar of Sports Insights. I'll close with a look at some prop bets.
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[h=3]No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans[/h]Westgate line: Duke minus-5; over/under 140
PickCenter: 53 percent picked Duke
Tuley: I have to say I'm impressed with Michigan State's run to the Final Four. The respect goes back to its Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, when it took the Badgers to overtime. Instead of wilting after that defeat, the Spartans have stood tall and are this year's Cinderella story. However, as much as I've tried to make a case for them to continue their storybook run, I'm afraid it'll strike midnight on Cinde-Sparty. It's the same way I felt last week when I tried to make a case for Gonzaga against Duke, but made the right call in passing.
Part of that was the fact the line was only<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Duke minus-2 and that price seemed short, but the Blue Devils have covered in all four of their tourney wins no matter the line. Michigan State should make some runs to keep the game competitive at times (I'm tempted to take the Spartans in the first half, but that number is short at just plus-2.5), but I think Duke will again answer every run with one of its own. The best play on this matchup is the under.</offer>
I'm a little surprised it has been set this high, as most people expect Michigan State to try and slow the tempo to have a better shot of keeping up with Duke. Besides, the Blue Devils have actually stayed under the total in all four of their tourney games. The Spartans are 2-2 with over/unders, but those were totals of 127 against Georgia and 127.5 against Louisville. I think we have plenty of wiggle room with this under. (Please, just no overtime!)
ATS pick: Under 140*
Lange: Unlike NRG Stadium in Houston -- which caused well-documented havoc on outside shooting -- historically speaking, Lucas Oil Stadium hasn't affected offensive production. Dating to 2009, there have been 12 postseason games at Lucas Oil, with seven of the 12 going over the total. The average score in those 12 games was 136.6 PPG, and 3-point shooting was well above the national average at 36.3 percent.
All that being said, topping 140 in this environment won't be easy, especially with what projects to be a moderately paced game. Duke has really grinded its way to the Final Four with four straight unders and an average of 118.3 PPG and about 120 possessions. Michigan State's four tournament games all went well under 140 points in regulation as well (124.3 PPG). Both teams look to get out on the fast break, but it's not easy to rack up quick, easy buckets when the opposing team places emphasis on transition defense. It may start fast and loose, but ultimately this will be a possession-oriented contest.
From a side perspective, the current number is in a good place. The Blue Devils have been the more impressive team throughout the tournament, and 5-on-5 have the better personnel. I think Jahlil Okafor is sitting on a good game as well after being held in check the past two victories. He'll cause problems for an undersized Michigan State frontcourt. With the way the Blue Devils have turned up their defensive intensity (53.5 PPG allowed in the tournament), I'd feel more comfortable with a Blue Devils ticket in my back pocket.
Pick: Under 140* (lean to Duke)
[h=3]No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 1Wisconsin Badgers[/h]Westgate line: Kentucky minus-5; over/under 131
PickCenter: 60 percent picked Wisconsin
Tuley: I hate to continuously refer back to my "betting path for Kentucky's title run" pre-tournament article. Oh, who am I kidding? I love rehashing it, as I had the Wildcats not covering against Hampton, not covering the first half against Cincinnati (and they didn't cover the spread for the game, either), the rout in the Sweet 16, and Notre Dame getting the cover in the regional finals.
I'd like to believe it shows I've really had the pulse of this Kentucky team. This is what I wrote for this matchup: "If I were making odds on which round the Wildcats would lose, I would make this the favorite. Just look at last year when Kentucky barely beat Wisconsin 74-73 in the Final Four. A lot of the same players are back and Wisconsin still matches up well with UK." Nothing has happened to change that opinion in the past two weeks. In fact, after watching Notre Dame take Kentucky to the brink, it made me more confident Wisconsin can get the job done Saturday night.
Now, I don't expect the Badgers to shoot 66.7 percent from 3-point range like they did against Arizona, and Notre Dame showed you don't have to do that to take down UK. The Irish repeatedly moved the ball inside and Wisconsin can do the same. In fact, Zach Auguste scored 20 points in the paint (10 on dunks, and just 0-for-1 from the foul line) against Kentucky. Wisconsin's Frank Kaminskyand Sam Dekker are more skilled than Auguste, and should be able to get to the foul line as well. The Badgers' height should also make Karl-Anthony Townswork harder than he did against the smaller Irish. Overall, it's a very even matchup, and the Final Four experience is pretty even, too, so I don't see any reason why Wisconsin can't pull the upset or at least make Kentucky pull out a narrow win like last year or last week.
ATS pick: Wisconsin plus-5* (and worth a shot at plus-200 on the money line)
Wunderdog Sports: Kentucky is a very young team on the Final Four stage Saturday. Not only that, they have the added pressure of being the first undefeated team to get this far since UNLV in 1991 (and the heavily favored Rebels lost). Kentucky has not been invincible, going to overtime in back-to-back games in the weak SEC and struggling against Notre Dame. All of that will be a concern against a brilliant defensive team in Wisconsin, one with incredible efficiency on offense. Oh, and the Badgers have one of the biggest and deepest frontcourts in college basketball. Kaminsky (18 PPG, 8 RPG), Dekker (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and 6-foot-7 sophomore Nigel Hayes (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG) will be a handful for the Wildcats.
Notre Dame was outstanding all season with offensive efficiency and Kentucky had trouble stopping the Irish. Wisconsin is also brilliant at ball movement and should present another tough challenge. Even in defeat, Notre Dame made it a game by getting to the rim at will. The Irish got 20 of their 26 field goals on dunks or layups. Their 40 points in the paint were tied for the most allowed by Kentucky this season. Wisconsin just hung 79 and 85 points the past two games on strong all-around teams (North Carolina and Arizona). This is an evenly matched game, so grab the talented, veteran-laden and versatile underdog.
ATS Pick: Wisconsin plus-5*
Lange: It's a rare occurrence but Kentucky was outplayed for much of its regional final matchup against Notre Dame. The Irish shot well (46.4 percent FGs), held their own on the glass (minus-1 margin), and allowed only a single fast-break bucket. That should concern Kentucky, as Wisconsin is capable of doing all of those things at just as high a level.
In the win over Arizona, Kaminsky committed four fouls for the first time this season. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Kentucky targets him on the defensive end of the floor. Arizona was set on attacking the paint against the Badgers and got both Kaminsky and Hayes into foul trouble. Arizona ended up shooting 22-of-37, 59.5 percent from 2-point range, and attempted 30 free throws. Down the stretch against Notre Dame, Kentucky ran play after play for Towns, who had 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting. You can bet Towns, and Willie Cauley-Stein, who has been quiet for much of the tournament, will be the focal point of UK's offense as it tries to wear down Kaminsky.
The most intriguing angle to this game, though, isn't game plans or individual matchups, but rather the point spread. We saw Kentucky close as an 11-point favorite over Notre Dame. Yes, the Irish played the Wildcats to a virtual draw, but oddsmakers and the betting markets have adjusted 6.5 points, with UK favored by as few as minus-4.5. Even when you account for Wisconsin's power rating edge over Notre Dame, I believe that Kentucky is being "downgraded" to a certain degree.
I don't try to portray Kentucky as unbeatable, but I'm also not going to change much of my opinion off one so-so performance. And let's not forget that Wisconsin simply isn't going to match the production it pumped out against Arizona. The Badgers averaged 1.33 points per possession and shot 12-of-18 (66.7 percent) from 3. That's arguably their best offensive game of the entire season. If both teams play like they did last week, then it's obviously anyone's ballgame. But "extremes" like that rarely carry over from one game to the next. In the end, I have a difficult time seeing much of any value on the Badgers after seeing them as high as plus-2 against Arizona. Now you're getting only plus-5 against a far superior team. It's not a massive shift in pricing, but it's enough for me to know that the play is either on the favorite or pass.
Pick: Lean on Kentucky minus-5/under 131
[h=3]College Basketball Vegas Rankings[/h]With each of the Final Four teams obviously winning since last week's CBB Vegas Rankings, you wouldn't expect too much movement in the combined power ratings from our panel of Sal Selvaggio (madduxsports.com), Kulesa and yours truly, Dave Tuley. When the opening lines for the Final Four came out on Sunday, those following our numbers could have foreseen that Kentucky minus-6 against Wisconsin was a little too high. It since has been bet closer to our numbers (Kentucky by 4.5).
1. Kentucky Wildcats (Power rating: 102.5)
The Wildcats went 1-1 ATS last week as they routed West Virginia 78-39 to triple the 13-point spread, but then barely escaped with a 68-66 victory over Notre Dame while never coming close to covering the 11-point spread. Our panel almost downgraded them but ended up leaving the power rating the same. Previous rating: 102.5
2 (tie). Wisconsin Badgers (98.5)
The Badgers needed a late run of free throws to cover the 6.5-point spread in their 79-72 victory over North Carolina, and then beat Arizona outright 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog (despite being a No. 1 seed vs. a No. 2). Someone on our panel (ahem) wanted to upgrade Wisconsin a full point, but the consensus landed on half a point. Previous rating: 98
3 (tie). Duke Blue Devils (98.5)
The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament and also get a half-point upgrade beating Utah 63-57 and getting the cover as 5- to 5.5-point favorites on their last-second free throw. Duke then really took care of business in its 66-52 win over Gonzaga as a 1.5-point favorite. Previous rating: 98
4. Michigan State Spartans (93.5)
The Spartans are also 4-0 ATS on their tourney run. They beat Oklahoma 62-58 to cover as 1.5-point favorites and then outlasted Louisville 76-70 in overtime to cover as 2.5-point favorites. One panelist argued for a full-point increase (not me this time) and we settled again on half a point. Previous rating: 93
[h=3]Systems & Trends from David Solar of Sports Insights[/h]Prior to the start of March Madness, a piece we contributed to the NCAA tournament Ultimate Betting Guide detailed the value of betting against the trendy underdog. Entering the tourney this system had posted an 86-65 ATS record and has tallied another winning campaign this year.
In fact, we consistently see profitable returns by taking widely ignored favorites, particularly during the postseason. However, we had not seen this philosophy applied to moneyline favorites.
Although taking the favorite to win straight up may seem a lucrative investment, you ultimately risk a lot of money at little gain. Additionally, the juice on large moneyline favorites is consistently more than the standard 10-cent vig, which often snuffs out any potential value. Public bettors overwhelmingly bet the favorite, typically driving the price up even further.
With so many factors working against it, it would seem that moneyline favorites should be avoided much like any food that needs to put the term "fresh" in quotation marks. But conventional wisdom among bettors is turned on its head during the tournament. When the general public begins anticipating upsets, it leads to a number of changes including:
1) The number of underdogs that receive a majority of public support increases.
2) Sports books no longer need to shade their lines to account for an influx of square bettors on the favorite.
3) Enough money comes in from public bettors to counterbalance incoming bets from sharps and/or betting syndicates.
Due to this monumental change in public perception, our hypothesis is that favorites would be undervalued on the moneyline -- particularly when they don't receive public support. Using Sport Insights' Bet Labs software, we find moneyline favorites that receive less than 50 percent of moneyline bets went 174-63 (73.4 percent) with plus-16.71 units earned since 2005.
Past analysis tells us favorites tend to be undervalued in games with high totals. Put simply, underdogs are more likely to pull off an upset in low-scoring games (with the exception of baseball). Higher totals typically correspond with more possessions, and more opportunities disproportionately benefit the better team (i.e., the favorite) over the course of a 40-minute game.
When we eliminate all games with low totals (defined by closing totals of 125 or less), our system returns a 163-54 record with nearly 20 units won. That includes a 12-3 record (plus-5.21 units won) in the Final Four and championship games.
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</tfoot></aside>At the time of publication, Kentucky (minus-235) was receiving just 47 percent of moneyline bets against Wisconsin, which would make them a current game match. These percentages are subject to change so bettors should utilize the public betting trends available on ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page to track moneyline favorites receiving less than 50 percent of bets.
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[h=3]Tuley's Take on Final Four Prop Bets[/h]Just as with any major sporting events, there are plenty of prop bets available on the Final Four. Obviously, the books do a lot of research on these to try and make sure bettors can't find a big edge. With that in mind, I usually steer away from looking at what players average for the season or against similar opponents, as I assume those have already been factored into the line. Instead, I'm looking for trends that correspond with how I feel the game will play out, so here's a look at a couple:
[h=2]Duke-Michigan St.[/h]First off, because I like the under, I also like both teams Duke (72.5) and Michigan St. (67.5) to stay under their team totals. I would also look at the under for most individual players. Plenty of these players are capable of putting up big numbers, but both teams mostly rely on balanced scoring so I expect more unders than overs. I focus on the two scoring leaders and hope they're both victims of a lower-scoring contest than the total indicates.
Jahlil Okafor: under 18.5 points
Travis Trice: under 16.5 points
Duke: under 72.5 points
Michigan St.: under 67.5 points
[h=2]Kentucky-Wisconsin[/h]As stated in my game prediction, I think the Wisconsin big men will have success against Kentucky. But while Dekker was the star of the Badgers' win over Arizona, I expect Kaminsky to be the one to step up -- UK might focus more on Dekker after last week, plus the fact he scored 15 in last year's Final Four matchup -- and go over his total of 19.5 points. He should hit some 3s but also score on drives in the lane, plus draw some fouls to add at the free throw line. On the other end of the floor, I expect the Badgers to try and limit Towns (where Notre Dame failed) and make Cauley-Stein beat them.
Frank Kaminsky: over 19.5 points
Willie Cauley-Stein: over 8.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns: under 12.5 points
Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider
March Madness once against lived up to its reputation with a lot of drama and some shocking upsets, but we're pretty much where we always are -- with three No. 1 seeds and a Cinderella story.
It all seems so familiar, especially because we have perennial powers Kentucky and Duke playing on the final weekend, as they have done so many times, plus Wisconsin making a return trip to the Final Four. Oh, and seeing Michigan State here isn't as shocking as a No. 7 seed would usually be.
</podcast></p>After four of the first six games on the opening Thursday of the NCAA tournament were outright upsets (No. 14 UAB over No. 3 Iowa St.; No. 14 Georgia St. over No. 3 Baylor; Butler over Texas; and No. 11 UCLA over No. 6 SMU), favorites mostly continued to survive and advance. Underdogs, however, held their own against the spread but lead just 31-29 ATS heading into the weekend against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. (Note: The game most open to debate is Oregon-Oklahoma State, which I graded as Oregon covering as a 1-point favorite, which was the consensus closing line in Vegas, while offshore was a consensus pick 'em, with a few books closing with Oklahoma State favored.) Anyway, there hasn't been much edge to playing favorites or 'dogs. In totals wagering, unders have a slightly better record at 32-26-2 (55.2 percent).
As always, we should look at matchups on a game-by-game basis, so what follows is our Final Four betting guide. I'll give my take on the two matchups and also get the opinions of my fellow ESPN college basketball handicappers Andrew Lange (sportsmemo.com) and Geoff Kulesa (wunderdog.com). We'll also share the power ratings from our CBB Vegas Rankings panel and get some systems and trends analysis from David Solar of Sports Insights. I'll close with a look at some prop bets.
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PickCenter: 53 percent picked Duke
Tuley: I have to say I'm impressed with Michigan State's run to the Final Four. The respect goes back to its Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, when it took the Badgers to overtime. Instead of wilting after that defeat, the Spartans have stood tall and are this year's Cinderella story. However, as much as I've tried to make a case for them to continue their storybook run, I'm afraid it'll strike midnight on Cinde-Sparty. It's the same way I felt last week when I tried to make a case for Gonzaga against Duke, but made the right call in passing.
Part of that was the fact the line was only<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Duke minus-2 and that price seemed short, but the Blue Devils have covered in all four of their tourney wins no matter the line. Michigan State should make some runs to keep the game competitive at times (I'm tempted to take the Spartans in the first half, but that number is short at just plus-2.5), but I think Duke will again answer every run with one of its own. The best play on this matchup is the under.</offer>
I'm a little surprised it has been set this high, as most people expect Michigan State to try and slow the tempo to have a better shot of keeping up with Duke. Besides, the Blue Devils have actually stayed under the total in all four of their tourney games. The Spartans are 2-2 with over/unders, but those were totals of 127 against Georgia and 127.5 against Louisville. I think we have plenty of wiggle room with this under. (Please, just no overtime!)
ATS pick: Under 140*
Lange: Unlike NRG Stadium in Houston -- which caused well-documented havoc on outside shooting -- historically speaking, Lucas Oil Stadium hasn't affected offensive production. Dating to 2009, there have been 12 postseason games at Lucas Oil, with seven of the 12 going over the total. The average score in those 12 games was 136.6 PPG, and 3-point shooting was well above the national average at 36.3 percent.
All that being said, topping 140 in this environment won't be easy, especially with what projects to be a moderately paced game. Duke has really grinded its way to the Final Four with four straight unders and an average of 118.3 PPG and about 120 possessions. Michigan State's four tournament games all went well under 140 points in regulation as well (124.3 PPG). Both teams look to get out on the fast break, but it's not easy to rack up quick, easy buckets when the opposing team places emphasis on transition defense. It may start fast and loose, but ultimately this will be a possession-oriented contest.
From a side perspective, the current number is in a good place. The Blue Devils have been the more impressive team throughout the tournament, and 5-on-5 have the better personnel. I think Jahlil Okafor is sitting on a good game as well after being held in check the past two victories. He'll cause problems for an undersized Michigan State frontcourt. With the way the Blue Devils have turned up their defensive intensity (53.5 PPG allowed in the tournament), I'd feel more comfortable with a Blue Devils ticket in my back pocket.
Pick: Under 140* (lean to Duke)
[h=3]No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 1Wisconsin Badgers[/h]Westgate line: Kentucky minus-5; over/under 131
PickCenter: 60 percent picked Wisconsin
Tuley: I hate to continuously refer back to my "betting path for Kentucky's title run" pre-tournament article. Oh, who am I kidding? I love rehashing it, as I had the Wildcats not covering against Hampton, not covering the first half against Cincinnati (and they didn't cover the spread for the game, either), the rout in the Sweet 16, and Notre Dame getting the cover in the regional finals.
I'd like to believe it shows I've really had the pulse of this Kentucky team. This is what I wrote for this matchup: "If I were making odds on which round the Wildcats would lose, I would make this the favorite. Just look at last year when Kentucky barely beat Wisconsin 74-73 in the Final Four. A lot of the same players are back and Wisconsin still matches up well with UK." Nothing has happened to change that opinion in the past two weeks. In fact, after watching Notre Dame take Kentucky to the brink, it made me more confident Wisconsin can get the job done Saturday night.
Now, I don't expect the Badgers to shoot 66.7 percent from 3-point range like they did against Arizona, and Notre Dame showed you don't have to do that to take down UK. The Irish repeatedly moved the ball inside and Wisconsin can do the same. In fact, Zach Auguste scored 20 points in the paint (10 on dunks, and just 0-for-1 from the foul line) against Kentucky. Wisconsin's Frank Kaminskyand Sam Dekker are more skilled than Auguste, and should be able to get to the foul line as well. The Badgers' height should also make Karl-Anthony Townswork harder than he did against the smaller Irish. Overall, it's a very even matchup, and the Final Four experience is pretty even, too, so I don't see any reason why Wisconsin can't pull the upset or at least make Kentucky pull out a narrow win like last year or last week.
ATS pick: Wisconsin plus-5* (and worth a shot at plus-200 on the money line)
Wunderdog Sports: Kentucky is a very young team on the Final Four stage Saturday. Not only that, they have the added pressure of being the first undefeated team to get this far since UNLV in 1991 (and the heavily favored Rebels lost). Kentucky has not been invincible, going to overtime in back-to-back games in the weak SEC and struggling against Notre Dame. All of that will be a concern against a brilliant defensive team in Wisconsin, one with incredible efficiency on offense. Oh, and the Badgers have one of the biggest and deepest frontcourts in college basketball. Kaminsky (18 PPG, 8 RPG), Dekker (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and 6-foot-7 sophomore Nigel Hayes (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG) will be a handful for the Wildcats.
Notre Dame was outstanding all season with offensive efficiency and Kentucky had trouble stopping the Irish. Wisconsin is also brilliant at ball movement and should present another tough challenge. Even in defeat, Notre Dame made it a game by getting to the rim at will. The Irish got 20 of their 26 field goals on dunks or layups. Their 40 points in the paint were tied for the most allowed by Kentucky this season. Wisconsin just hung 79 and 85 points the past two games on strong all-around teams (North Carolina and Arizona). This is an evenly matched game, so grab the talented, veteran-laden and versatile underdog.
ATS Pick: Wisconsin plus-5*
Lange: It's a rare occurrence but Kentucky was outplayed for much of its regional final matchup against Notre Dame. The Irish shot well (46.4 percent FGs), held their own on the glass (minus-1 margin), and allowed only a single fast-break bucket. That should concern Kentucky, as Wisconsin is capable of doing all of those things at just as high a level.
In the win over Arizona, Kaminsky committed four fouls for the first time this season. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Kentucky targets him on the defensive end of the floor. Arizona was set on attacking the paint against the Badgers and got both Kaminsky and Hayes into foul trouble. Arizona ended up shooting 22-of-37, 59.5 percent from 2-point range, and attempted 30 free throws. Down the stretch against Notre Dame, Kentucky ran play after play for Towns, who had 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting. You can bet Towns, and Willie Cauley-Stein, who has been quiet for much of the tournament, will be the focal point of UK's offense as it tries to wear down Kaminsky.
The most intriguing angle to this game, though, isn't game plans or individual matchups, but rather the point spread. We saw Kentucky close as an 11-point favorite over Notre Dame. Yes, the Irish played the Wildcats to a virtual draw, but oddsmakers and the betting markets have adjusted 6.5 points, with UK favored by as few as minus-4.5. Even when you account for Wisconsin's power rating edge over Notre Dame, I believe that Kentucky is being "downgraded" to a certain degree.
I don't try to portray Kentucky as unbeatable, but I'm also not going to change much of my opinion off one so-so performance. And let's not forget that Wisconsin simply isn't going to match the production it pumped out against Arizona. The Badgers averaged 1.33 points per possession and shot 12-of-18 (66.7 percent) from 3. That's arguably their best offensive game of the entire season. If both teams play like they did last week, then it's obviously anyone's ballgame. But "extremes" like that rarely carry over from one game to the next. In the end, I have a difficult time seeing much of any value on the Badgers after seeing them as high as plus-2 against Arizona. Now you're getting only plus-5 against a far superior team. It's not a massive shift in pricing, but it's enough for me to know that the play is either on the favorite or pass.
Pick: Lean on Kentucky minus-5/under 131
[h=3]College Basketball Vegas Rankings[/h]With each of the Final Four teams obviously winning since last week's CBB Vegas Rankings, you wouldn't expect too much movement in the combined power ratings from our panel of Sal Selvaggio (madduxsports.com), Kulesa and yours truly, Dave Tuley. When the opening lines for the Final Four came out on Sunday, those following our numbers could have foreseen that Kentucky minus-6 against Wisconsin was a little too high. It since has been bet closer to our numbers (Kentucky by 4.5).
1. Kentucky Wildcats (Power rating: 102.5)
2 (tie). Wisconsin Badgers (98.5)
3 (tie). Duke Blue Devils (98.5)
4. Michigan State Spartans (93.5)
[h=3]Systems & Trends from David Solar of Sports Insights[/h]Prior to the start of March Madness, a piece we contributed to the NCAA tournament Ultimate Betting Guide detailed the value of betting against the trendy underdog. Entering the tourney this system had posted an 86-65 ATS record and has tallied another winning campaign this year.
In fact, we consistently see profitable returns by taking widely ignored favorites, particularly during the postseason. However, we had not seen this philosophy applied to moneyline favorites.
Although taking the favorite to win straight up may seem a lucrative investment, you ultimately risk a lot of money at little gain. Additionally, the juice on large moneyline favorites is consistently more than the standard 10-cent vig, which often snuffs out any potential value. Public bettors overwhelmingly bet the favorite, typically driving the price up even further.
With so many factors working against it, it would seem that moneyline favorites should be avoided much like any food that needs to put the term "fresh" in quotation marks. But conventional wisdom among bettors is turned on its head during the tournament. When the general public begins anticipating upsets, it leads to a number of changes including:
1) The number of underdogs that receive a majority of public support increases.
2) Sports books no longer need to shade their lines to account for an influx of square bettors on the favorite.
3) Enough money comes in from public bettors to counterbalance incoming bets from sharps and/or betting syndicates.
Due to this monumental change in public perception, our hypothesis is that favorites would be undervalued on the moneyline -- particularly when they don't receive public support. Using Sport Insights' Bet Labs software, we find moneyline favorites that receive less than 50 percent of moneyline bets went 174-63 (73.4 percent) with plus-16.71 units earned since 2005.
Past analysis tells us favorites tend to be undervalued in games with high totals. Put simply, underdogs are more likely to pull off an upset in low-scoring games (with the exception of baseball). Higher totals typically correspond with more possessions, and more opportunities disproportionately benefit the better team (i.e., the favorite) over the course of a 40-minute game.
When we eliminate all games with low totals (defined by closing totals of 125 or less), our system returns a 163-54 record with nearly 20 units won. That includes a 12-3 record (plus-5.21 units won) in the Final Four and championship games.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Moneyline Favorites | 506-198 (71.9 pct) | -3.11 | -0.4 pct |
| 2. ML Favorites, <50% | 174-63 (73.4 pct) | +16.71 | +7.1 pct |
| 3. ML Favorites, <50%, O/U 125+ | 163-54 (75.1 pct) | +19.72 | +9.1 pct |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. | |||
| ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1972 ($100 x 19.72 units) following the system. | |||
| *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investments. |
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| COACH | TEAM | TOURNAMENT | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Ryan | Wisconsin | 24-20 (+2.90) | 165-153 (+3.70) |
| Tom Izzo | Michigan State | 29-24 (+2.99) | 174-161 (+3.17) |
| Mike Krzyzewski | Duke | 21-30 (-9.94) | 178-167 (+1.92) |
| John Calipari | Kentucky | 39-30 (+7.07) | 179-170 (-0.14) |
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[h=3]Tuley's Take on Final Four Prop Bets[/h]Just as with any major sporting events, there are plenty of prop bets available on the Final Four. Obviously, the books do a lot of research on these to try and make sure bettors can't find a big edge. With that in mind, I usually steer away from looking at what players average for the season or against similar opponents, as I assume those have already been factored into the line. Instead, I'm looking for trends that correspond with how I feel the game will play out, so here's a look at a couple:
[h=2]Duke-Michigan St.[/h]First off, because I like the under, I also like both teams Duke (72.5) and Michigan St. (67.5) to stay under their team totals. I would also look at the under for most individual players. Plenty of these players are capable of putting up big numbers, but both teams mostly rely on balanced scoring so I expect more unders than overs. I focus on the two scoring leaders and hope they're both victims of a lower-scoring contest than the total indicates.
Jahlil Okafor: under 18.5 points
Travis Trice: under 16.5 points
Duke: under 72.5 points
Michigan St.: under 67.5 points
[h=2]Kentucky-Wisconsin[/h]As stated in my game prediction, I think the Wisconsin big men will have success against Kentucky. But while Dekker was the star of the Badgers' win over Arizona, I expect Kaminsky to be the one to step up -- UK might focus more on Dekker after last week, plus the fact he scored 15 in last year's Final Four matchup -- and go over his total of 19.5 points. He should hit some 3s but also score on drives in the lane, plus draw some fouls to add at the free throw line. On the other end of the floor, I expect the Badgers to try and limit Towns (where Notre Dame failed) and make Cauley-Stein beat them.
Frank Kaminsky: over 19.5 points
Willie Cauley-Stein: over 8.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns: under 12.5 points
