http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/...eated-prop-final-four-las-vegas-betting-lines
Two Vegas books roll the dice despite massive risk on Final Four
<tbody>
</tbody>[h=4][/h]
LAS VEGAS — Two Las Vegas sports books face major risk on the college basketball Final Four. One is cheering for Kentucky to lose its first game of the season; the other is looking at a $1 million loss if Michigan State wins it all. Perhaps these books should borrow a strategy from Vegas’ past to mitigate some of that risk.
William Hill U.S opened a "Will Kentucky go undefeated?" prop back in August, when bettors could have taken 50-to-1 odds on "Yes." The Wildcats, of course, are two wins away from bettors cashing those tickets.
“We took a few bets at 50-to-1, and then at 40-to-1 and all way down the line,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich. “They were even betting it pretty good when it was down to 8-to-1 and lower, but then we finally got some buy-back on the "No" when wise guys started to see there was value.”
Despite the risk, Bogdanovich is treating the prop as an entirely different entity and booking Kentucky’s game vs. Wisconsin straight up, which includes offering the Kentucky at -240 on money line, the cheapest price in town. If Kentucky wins on Saturday, meaning William Hill will be staring at massive risk in Monday’s game, the booking strategy could change.
However big Bogdanovich’s liability, though, it doesn’t come close to what a downtown book is dealing with.
Golden Nugget book director Tony Miller stands to lose $1 million if Michigan State wins its next two games. Miller took a $20,000 future wager on Michigan State at 50-to-1 to win the Tournament back in December.
The Nugget does not appear to be shaving anything off, either, as its Duke -260/+220 price is in line with most books in the city. Nor will Miller try to place a bet on the Spartans at a competing book in order to minimize his risk. That could change if Michigan State wins on Saturday.
“We will not be laying anything off for (Saturday’s) game and it’s doubtful for Monday,” Miller said, “but we’ll see how we look after Saturday night’s game if Michigan State is still alive. Ultimately, It's Tillman's (Golden Nugget owner Tillman Fertitta) call.”
Money can't buy the type of national publicity the Golden Nugget has received for the wager, which was made by The D casino owner Derek Stevens, and even if it could, it may cost over $1 million, anyway.
"The exposure has been incredible, not just for us but also next door (The D), where Derek is having all kinds of fun with the wager and publicity. He's put the actual ticket in a glass case for all to look at and has security guarding it," Miller said.
In Las Vegas’ older days, it wasn’t uncommon for sports books to lay off wagers with each other when risk got too big for their bosses’ stomachs.
In 1995, for example, a major chain of books on the Strip had taken too much action on the Chargers (+18.5) in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers. The bookmakers and their bosses decided to cut their risk in half by betting the Chargers at the Mirage, then run by Jimmy Vaccaro. Of course, the Chargers were blown out and failed to cover the spread, which wasn’t pleasing to the book director who was forced to lay off.
Should Michigan State and Kentucky play in Monday’s championship game, it would seem like a good opportunity for William Hill and the Golden Nugget to help each other out and cut their losses with a "surrender" move. But these books appear to have the mindset of "Let's gamble and let the chips fall where they may" — and you gotta love that.
Two Vegas books roll the dice despite massive risk on Final Four
| [h=4]Micah Roberts[/h] | |
| Updated at 8:04 pm |
<tbody>
</tbody>
LAS VEGAS — Two Las Vegas sports books face major risk on the college basketball Final Four. One is cheering for Kentucky to lose its first game of the season; the other is looking at a $1 million loss if Michigan State wins it all. Perhaps these books should borrow a strategy from Vegas’ past to mitigate some of that risk.
William Hill U.S opened a "Will Kentucky go undefeated?" prop back in August, when bettors could have taken 50-to-1 odds on "Yes." The Wildcats, of course, are two wins away from bettors cashing those tickets.
“We took a few bets at 50-to-1, and then at 40-to-1 and all way down the line,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich. “They were even betting it pretty good when it was down to 8-to-1 and lower, but then we finally got some buy-back on the "No" when wise guys started to see there was value.”
Despite the risk, Bogdanovich is treating the prop as an entirely different entity and booking Kentucky’s game vs. Wisconsin straight up, which includes offering the Kentucky at -240 on money line, the cheapest price in town. If Kentucky wins on Saturday, meaning William Hill will be staring at massive risk in Monday’s game, the booking strategy could change.
However big Bogdanovich’s liability, though, it doesn’t come close to what a downtown book is dealing with.
Golden Nugget book director Tony Miller stands to lose $1 million if Michigan State wins its next two games. Miller took a $20,000 future wager on Michigan State at 50-to-1 to win the Tournament back in December.
The Nugget does not appear to be shaving anything off, either, as its Duke -260/+220 price is in line with most books in the city. Nor will Miller try to place a bet on the Spartans at a competing book in order to minimize his risk. That could change if Michigan State wins on Saturday.
“We will not be laying anything off for (Saturday’s) game and it’s doubtful for Monday,” Miller said, “but we’ll see how we look after Saturday night’s game if Michigan State is still alive. Ultimately, It's Tillman's (Golden Nugget owner Tillman Fertitta) call.”
Money can't buy the type of national publicity the Golden Nugget has received for the wager, which was made by The D casino owner Derek Stevens, and even if it could, it may cost over $1 million, anyway.
"The exposure has been incredible, not just for us but also next door (The D), where Derek is having all kinds of fun with the wager and publicity. He's put the actual ticket in a glass case for all to look at and has security guarding it," Miller said.
In Las Vegas’ older days, it wasn’t uncommon for sports books to lay off wagers with each other when risk got too big for their bosses’ stomachs.
In 1995, for example, a major chain of books on the Strip had taken too much action on the Chargers (+18.5) in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers. The bookmakers and their bosses decided to cut their risk in half by betting the Chargers at the Mirage, then run by Jimmy Vaccaro. Of course, the Chargers were blown out and failed to cover the spread, which wasn’t pleasing to the book director who was forced to lay off.
Should Michigan State and Kentucky play in Monday’s championship game, it would seem like a good opportunity for William Hill and the Golden Nugget to help each other out and cut their losses with a "surrender" move. But these books appear to have the mindset of "Let's gamble and let the chips fall where they may" — and you gotta love that.
