On The Hop's 2015 Baseball

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All plays will be listed pitchers unless otherwise noted.

If I play a favorite I am playing that much to win a unit. If I play a dog I am playing a unit to win that amount. All plays are one unit unless noted.

When I have time I will post some type of reasoning for the play to help you follow, fade or ignore.

As always your comments, suggestions and constructive criticism are appreciated.


Made a nice run at the end of the regular season last year and got a big boost from the Royals future/Giants hedge. Results can be found here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=987299&page=10

4/6/2015 (YTD: 0-0, EVEN)

Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers u4 (-115), 1st 5: Price against a weak Twins lineup. Hughes continues to be underrated. Also a little chilly in Detroit.
Philadelphia Phillies (+105): I'm determined not to read too much into pitchers this year but this matchup is a huge mismatch even with the powerful Red Sox lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120): The Rays are an underrated team this season. They were horribly unlucky last year. On the flip side the Orioles were very fortunate.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+105): Favorable number with the better lineup. Too much being made of the pitching matchup especially when Liriano has nice numbers against the Reds.
Miami Marlins -1 (+111): How are the Braves supposed to show up when they just traded away the rest of their team? Alvarez is very underrated and I expect a big year.
Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves u7 (+105): See above for reasoning on Alvarez against a weak Braves lineup. Teheran still solid. Wind is blowing in.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+128): Collmenter solid at home. Not in love with the Giants this season, just not sure where the offense comes from especially with Pence out. Worth a shot at this number.
Texas Rangers (+133), 1st 5: ​Gallardo has great numbers against this lineup. Rangers still have some bats. Worth a shot at this number.
ML Parlay: Milwaukee Brewers/Seattle Mariners (+171)
 

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4/7/2015 (YTD: 2-7, -5.15u)

Baltimore Orioles (-110):
Not sold on the Rays starter. Forced into the lineup due to injuries and they used a lot of their bullpen yesterday as well.
Colorado Rockies (+128): Lyles is underrated and looked great in the Spring. Garza has been on a consistent downward slide and got lit up all Spring. The top of the Rockies order looks stronger than I anticipated and they have a good shot to open up the season 2-0.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+100): The Giants are one of those teams I'm looking to fade and it may cost me in the long run. The change to the NL should help DeLaRosa who has strong stuff. Not trusting Vogelsong who is only in the rotation due to injury, especially on the road. DBacks showed some fight coming back to make it close last night.
Atlanta Braves (+130): I've been a big fan of Latos but he was a mess this Spring. The Braves look to be willing to play small ball and do all the things they need to to stay competitive. Wood is ready for a strong season and I'll gladly back him at a plus number.
​ML Parlay: Los Angeles Dodgers/Oakland A's (+174)
 

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4/8/2015 (YTD: 6-8, -1.57u)

Chicago Cubs (-107), 1st 5:
Love the way Arietta threw the ball last season. Not willing to trust Lynn on the road, especially during the day. The Cubs pen scares me so I'll go first 5 with the feeling that the Cubs lineup isn't swinging at everything in sight like they did when they were amped up on opening night.
 

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Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)
Baltimore Orioles (+106)
Cleveland Indians, -1 (+103)
San Diego Padres (+118)
Atlanta Braves (+124)
New York Yankees (-122)
 

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4/9/2015 (YTD 9-11-1 -1.52u)

Pittsburgh Pirates (-110):
Hoping that the third time is the charm. Pirates have the better lineup and do not see much of a pitching advantage for either side.
New York Mets/Washington Nationals u3 (-115), 1st 5: Anyone that has followed me (not sure why you would do that) knows I like unders on get away day. Even though this one is very obvious and early in the season, I can't avoid playing it.
San Diego Padres -1 (+121): ​Still not a believer in the Giants. Hudson struggled in the second half and I expect that to continue today. Also expecting max effort from the new look Padres in their home opener.
 

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Posting from phone. Having tech issue from tablet. Will update record, etc when I can:

Baltimore -111
Houston +101
Minnesota +102
Detroit +110
New York Yankees -101
Pittsburgh +122
SF/SD o3.5 1st 5 +105
 

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4/11/2015 (YTD 13-17-1 -3.89u)

Detroit Tigers (-107): Kluber is a star but not against the Tigers. Tough to back the Tribe when they just can't hit and it doesn't look to get better against Price.
Toronto Blue Jays (+102): Blue Jays should be undefeated except for a fluke inning against the Yankees. Now they throw an absolute stud in Sanchez. They face Jimenez who was done two years ago and an Orioles bullpen that put in a lot of innings yesterday.
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (+110): If you can use the words struggle and Kershaw in the same sentence, you could kinda sorta say he struggles in Arizona. This is more about Bradley the top pitching prospect in the DBacks organization. First time the Dodgers see him and my hope is he keeps them close enough for this one to stay within a run or two when the Dodgers go to their mess of a pen.
San Diego Padres (-103): Pretty sure I'll never learn to not fade the Giants. However Petco has not been good to Bumgarner and I look for Shields to throw it well in his home debut. The Padres have the more explosive lineup and the stronger bullpen and I'll back them at this small number.
 

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4/12/2015 (YTD 16-18-1 -1.79u)

New York Mets (+100): Like the way the Mets have responded to the Mejia suspension in the clubhouse. Braves a little overvalued right now. Colon has had success in Atlanta.
San Diego Padres -1 (+130): Ross at home with a strong bullpen and a team that is starting to hit.
New York Yankees (-110): Too much value being given to Buchholz's first start and too much concern over Tanaka's velocity dip. The Yankees have to hit at some point. Don't they????
Toronto Blue Jays & Baltimore Orioles u8 (-110): Tough to play an under with two very powerful offenses. However the numbers behind these pitchers tell me it is the correct play. Especially on get away day.
 

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Thanks XS. Appreciate you checking in.

4/13/2015 (YTD 19-19-1 +.41u)

Washington Nationals (+127): Really a situational play. Red Sox coming off a big series in New York. Got home late last night. Have to face a tough pitcher in Zimmerman. Also not a big believer in Porcello.ML Parlay: New York Mets & St. Louis Cardinals (+152)


​Likely more to come later.
 

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Kansas City Royals (-123): Love the pitching advantage, both starters and bullpen. Royals have the stronger bats as of now as well.
 

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New York Yankees (-105): In my mind Pineda is one of the top 10 starters in baseball Yankees do have a solid pen to back him up. If the bats can keep up the momentum from last night they have a decided advantage here.
Atlanta Braves (-110): There is something wrong with Mat Latos. He's just not the same pitcher as he was. Miller could be a guy where a change of scenery really helps. Even though they finally dropped a game the Braves are playing with a ton of confidence right now against a Marlins squad that just hasn't figured it out yet.
ML Parlay: San Diego Padres & Chicago Cubs (+195)
 

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4/15/2015 (YTD 22-22-2 +.41u)

Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox u9 (-110)

Likely more to come later.
 

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Always good when you play an under and it goes over by the third inning. Also great when you miss a play (Angels) that you loved and they're up 7 in the fourth. Woo hoo!!!

Detroit Tigers (+139)
Minnesota Twins (+110)
Oakland A's (-103)
 

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4/16/2015 (YTD 24-24-2 +.77u)

Minnesota Twins (+112)
Milwaukee Brewers & St. Louis Cardinals u3.5, 1st 5 (-105)
Philadelphia Phillies & Washington Nationals u3, 1st 5 (+105)
Tampa Bay Rays & Toronto Blue Jays u8 (+105)
 

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4/17/2015 (YTD 27-25-2 +2.94u)

Chicago Cubs (-110):
Hammel in a day game at Wrigley. He has nice numbers against the Padres lineup and I think the Cubs get an emotional and statistical boost by bringing Bryant up.

Likely more to come later.
 

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Atlanta Braves (+140)
New York Yankees (+104)
Cleveland Indians & Minnesota Twins u8.5 (-105)
 

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4/18/2015 (YTD 30-27-2 +4.28u)

Philadelphia Phillies & Washington Nationals u3.5 1st 5 (+100)
Atlanta Braves (+134)
Chicago White Sox 1st 5 (-105)
Baltimore Orioles +124
 

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