| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +6.65 |
| Last 30 Days | 4 | 3 | 0.00 | +3.01 |
| Season to Date | 4 | 3 | 0.00 | +3.01 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
all plays are for 2 units w/exception of Cubs, which is 2.14 units to win 2
CHICAGO -107 over St. Louis
2:00 PM EST. The Cubs were a little too jacked up in their season opener and we trust we’ll see them a little more relaxed at the plate today under the tutelage of Joe Maddon. They’ll face Lance Lynn this time around. Lynn was one of just nine NL starters to post a sub-2.75 ERA in 2014—his 2.74 mark was his personal best by over a full run. Lynn's 48 wins over the last three seasons rank third in the NL over that span as well but we’re not buying of any of it. A favorable strand rate and hr/f were behind Lynn's ERA gains. His xERA last year was actually worse than his 2012-13 seasons. Lynn's strikeout rate fell for the second straight year to a mark barely above league-average in 2014. The skills trend suggests his overall skill set is headed in the wrong direction. In fact, his K-rate and swing and miss rate says he wasn't quite as imposing, with ERA gains primarily a function of strand %. Advanced stats even say his skills dipped below average in today's pitching-rich game. With little to no growth beneath the surface, Lynn’s excellent 2014 season means he'll likely be overvalued most of April and May. His mediocre command suggests that with a few more errant gusts of wind, we're much more likely to see a league-average ERA from Lynn than a repeat performance. Don't buy this stock at its peak.
One NL breakout few saw coming was Jake Arrieta. Here’s a guy that owned a 5.44 ERA in four seasons in Baltimore, but turned in an exceptional season for the lowly Cubs last year while nearly tossing a no-hitter on September 16. So, what changed? Revamped mechanics, with a new emphasis on the slider led to a strikeout rate growth supported by his swing and miss rate. Prospect pedigree always said this was possible but sometimes it just takes a while. That low-90s slider, which opponents struggled to hit (.190 BA against) was used more than twice as often (29%) as it was the previous year and more frequently than any other pitch in his arsenal. While Arrieta's track record of success is short, there's little reason not to think he can't continue to pitch at a high level and perhaps with an improved team behind him. Oh, and by the way, Arietta made four starts against the Cardinals last season, allowing just three ER in 22.1 IP to go along with a 28/9 K/BB. In 12 starts at Wrigley Field last season, he went 6-1 with a 1.46 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP and 9K’s/9. Yeah, we’d say he has a chance to thrive again here.
San Francisco +109 over ARIZONA
We never liked Jeremy Hellickson when he pitched for the Rays because all the advanced stats said he was a fraud. In his first two seasons at this level, Hellickson posted a 2.95 ERA in winning Rookie of the Year honors, followed by a 3.10 ERA in his sophomore season. It was all smoke and mirrors that caught up to him in 2013 when he posted an ERA of 5.17 in 31 starts. Last season, Hellickson went 1-5 with a 4.52 ERA in 64 IP for the Rays. He missed the entire 1st half after arthroscopic elbow surgery and struggled upon his return. Hellickson’s command was fine but a ridiculously poor and unlucky hit rate did him in. However, Hellickson’s declining velocity and inability to generate groundballs sets a low ceiling. A career groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 38%/20%/41% says this park is not a good fit for him. Hellickson’s disaster starts history is extremely troublesome and it’s also worth noting that he allowed 20 hits and eight runs in 12 spring innings. As the chalk, this is one guy to avoid.
The smart and savvy Chris Heston was in the midst of his best pro season when he was promoted to the big leagues for the first time last September. He didn’t exactly thrive with a 5.06 ERA in just 5.1 innings of work but he did get a taste of the bigs and is coming off a decent spring. In 15 spring innings, Heston posted a 2.40 ERA, allowed just 10 hits, struck out 10 and walked just one batter. Heston is a durable innings-eater who repeats his delivery and spots his sinker effectively low in the strike zone. He pitches off his upper-80s mph sinker and gets ahead in the count consistently. To complement his ground ball-inducing two-seamer, he uses a curve, slider, and change-up. None of his offerings is considered plus—or even above average—but he is adept at sequencing and keeping hitters guessing. His change-up is his best pitch. Heston is a guy who throws strikes and induces a ton of groundballs. That profile could keep him at this level for a long time. Give us a tag on a groundball pitcher at this park that throws strikes against a starter that has one foot in the gutter and we’ll bite almost every time.
Atlanta +120 over MIAMI
Suddenly the Marlins are 0-2 and have scored just three runs. During its first two games, Miami has had the based loaded with 0 outs and failed to score a run both times. That first win now becomes even more elusive. Tom Koehler’s ERA says he was "a little better," than previous years while xERA says "not so much." While he benefitted from improvements on both sides of the command equation, it was mostly shifting winds (hr/f) that lifted him. Koehler’s dominant start/disaster start history from last year is a sign that he's working his way out of mediocrity but we're not biting yet because his dominant start/disaster start history prior to last year is awful and it’s a larger sample size. There is nothing in Koehler’s skills set that has changed, he was just much luckier last season and we get the benefit of that right away by taking back a price against him.
The Braves were projected to be weak this season. However, those projections may be a little premature. What we’re seeing is a team that is taking a lot of pitches and being very patient at the plate. Even in the season opener when they scored just twice and had six hits, the Braves were making contact often. That’s a good sign. A strong start to his major league career served to raise expectations for Shelby Miller as the 2014 season approached. Unfortunately, Miller wasn’t able to live up to the rather immense hype and subsequently became expendable. The Braves acquired Miller and Tyrell Jenkins from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden.There are some negatives in Miller’s skill set but if you look closely, there is reason to be optimistic. Overall, Miller’s control was worse than 2013 but 2H gains, which were supported by his first pitch strike %, give reason for hope. The dip in swing and miss rate % is a bit worrisome. However, he rallied with a strong September (7.7 Ks/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.37 xERA, 66% first-pitch strike and a 9% swing and miss rate in 30 IP). Miller, incidentally, began using a new grip on his sinker on August 23. Prior to that day, he had only thrown the sinker a grand total of 14 times during the 2014 season. From then on, 13% of the pitches he threw were sinkers and his overall performance improved (2.08 ERA, 6.7 K’s/9, and 1.9 BB/9l in 43 IP). Miller showed improvement against left-handed batters and perhaps most encouraging is that he held lefties to a miniscule .179/.256/.205 slash line with 0 HR while posting a 30% strikeout percentage against them during the month of September. Obviously, that’s a small sample size, but it’s interesting given the adaptations he made in late August. In addition to the tweak Miller made on August 23 with regard to his sinker, he also started throwing his four-seam fastball less and began utilizing his curveball more (four-seam fastball usage down 15%, curve up 10% and sinker up 13%). Those changes seemed to pay pretty significant dividends down the stretch. He had previously relied on what was essentially a two-pitch arsenal when you consider he threw his fastball 71% of the time and his curve around 18% of the time. Now armed with a sinker to go with a 94 mph four-seam fastball, curve and cutter, Miller may be ready to take the next step. With his stock low, we’re willing to take that gamble
Cleveland -1½ +137 over HOUSTON
A brutal April (6.46 ERA) sent Carlos Carrasco to the pen but he returned with a bang in the 2nd half. Signs of a breakout were all over the place. Carrasco’s strikeout rate surge in the second half of last year was supported by an elite swing and miss rate of 14%. Carrasco also maintained his elite groundball/fly-ball split of 53%/23% and continued to better his control. Overall, Carrasco struck out 140 batters in 134 innings. These skills are seriously legit. It’s also worth noting that current Astros have 47 career AB’s against Carrasco and have just six hits for a combined BA of .128.
If you wagered on Scott Feldman early in 2014, you likely cashed some tickets after he posted a 1.69 ERA in April. If you bet him after that it was probably because you stopped paying attention to how bad he actually is, as he failed to record an ERA under 4.50 in each of the next three months. If you bet on him now, you are seriously rolling the dice. For most of last year, Feldman paired a middling K-rate with similarly middling control (with middling results). Primarily a finesse pitcher, Feldman's swing and miss % remains uninspiring. His changeup, which produced swings and misses 16% of the time in 2012 and 9% in 2013 per PITCHf/x, plummeted to 5% last season. Feldman’s groundball tilt and decent control have limited his disasters and helped him to settle in as a league average starter. However, pedestrian (and declining) K-rate leaves thin margin for error. Unless he can reclaim lost Ks, the most likely outcome is an ERA heading north of 4.00, perhaps by a wide margin. Carlos Carrasco’s stock is about to soar and we don’t want to miss out on the early season value on him. We could spot the -129 price, which is not a bad bet at all but we prefer the take-back laying the runs so that’s how we’ll play it.
