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<header class="article-header">Mark Buehrle is quietly building his Hall of Fame case with win No. 200
</header><header class="article-header"></header>
The veteran left-hander won his 200th career game as the Toronto Blue Jays ruined the Baltimore Orioles' home opener with a 12-5 victory. He's fourth on the active win list, behind Tim Hudson (214), CC Sabathia (208) and Bartolo Colon (205), but you get the feeling Buehrle will outlast all of them. He just turned 36 and, similar to Jamie Moyer, can succeed even without a blistering fastball. There's no reason he won't be able to pitch into his 40s if he wants to keep playing.
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<video style="display: none;"><source media="(min-width: 376px)" data-srcset="http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=267, <a href=" target="_blank" i?img='%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=534"' combiner="" a2.espncdn.com="">http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0410/mlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=534 2x"><source media="(max-width: 375px)" data-srcset="http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=375, <a href=" target="_blank" i?img='%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=750"' combiner="" a2.espncdn.com="">http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0410/mlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=750 2x"></video>
<figcaption>Mark Buehrle's pitching style and savvy has gotten him to 200 career wins and could set him up for many more. <cite>AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</cite></figcaption></figure></aside>Buehrle got off to a great start last season, sitting at 10-1 with a 2.10 ERA on June 1. He threw eight scoreless innings to beat the Kansas City Royals that night and the Jays led the AL East by 3.5 games. But he'd win just one of his next 15 starts and the Jays fell out of the playoff race. For a pitcher so consistent, it was an inconsistent season. The key to his early success was keeping the ball in the park; he allowed just two home runs through the first 12 starts. Joshua Howsam of Blue Jays Plus also explains that Buehrle's curveball was key early on, but he then seemed to lose his release point, which explains the summer slump:
What this graphic shows is that, by July, Mark Buehrle was releasing the ball 0.25 feet closer to the center of home plate (horizontally) than he was at the beginning of the season. Now, that number might sound small, but in terms of release point for a pitcher, a quarter of a foot makes a tremendous difference in terms of command.
So we can see evidence that Buehrle’™s release point was a bit off which, on its own, doesn’™t really tell us a whole lot. But as we dive deeper into the numbers, we can see how that actually affected him.
At the start of this piece, I mentioned how Buehrle was using his curveball more as a means to set up his fastball inside. When he lost his release, that curveball abandoned him.
From April-June, hitters were swinging at Buehrle’s hook roughly 48% of the time (36.4% on pitches out of the zone). In July, hitters were only offering at 37% (season low chase percentage of 18.5%) of his curveballs. As a result, his strike (strikes + balls in play) percentage on the pitch dropped from just over 60% to a season-low 53%. So batters weren’t offering at many hooks, but when they did swing, they were absolutely hammering them to the tune of a whopping 1.143 SLG%, up from .288 from April-June. Impressively, not one curveball was hit on the ground against Buehrle in July.
During that 15-start stretch, batters hit .322 off Buehrle with 11 home runs. He allowed a .351 average on balls in play, but the ineffectiveness of his curveball suggests that wasn't just bad luck. He did right himself in September, with a 2.83 ERA and .267 batting average allowed.
That was a positive sign heading into 2015. Marcus Stroman's injury means Toronto will have to rely on Buehrle and 40-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to be more than just innings eaters in the middle of the rotation; they need lots of quality starts. His outing on Friday wasn't dominant, but few Buehrle outings are. He allowed eight hits and two walks in six innings while recording just one strikeout. But he got big outs: Everth Cabrera lined out to right field with the bases loaded to end the second, and he got Delmon Young to ground into a double play with two runners on to end the third.
Buehrle also does the little things to help himself out: He's won four Gold Gloves, and last year he allowed just one stolen base. He's allowed just 59 stolen bases in his career -- while picking off 95 runners. That's a major reason his career ERA is below his FIP.
With 200 wins, does he have a shot at the Hall of Fame? His career 58.2 WAR does lead active pitchers and actually compares favorably to several Hall of Fame pitchers:
Juan Marichal: 61.9
Don Drysdale: 61.2
Jim Bunning: 60.3
Three-Finger Brown: 55.1
Whitey Ford: 53.9
Sandy Koufax: 53.2
Early Wynn: 51.2
The knock against Buehrle -- which is fair, I think -- is that's rarely been one of the elite pitchers in the league in any given season. He did finish third in the AL in ERA in 2005 but has just four top-10 ERA finishes in his league. Obviously, to accumulate 58 career WAR he's had some good seasons, and Baseball-Reference.com credits him with four seasons of 5+ WAR and four more in the 4.0-4.9 range. Those are All-Star level seasons, if not Cy Young level.
Still, if he can average 13 wins per season -- and he's won exactly 13 five of the past six seasons -- the next five years, that's 264 wins. You have to start talking about him as a potential Hall of Famer then, even if it's more in the Don Sutton "compiler" mode. If he lasts as long as Moyer -- who won 16 games at age 45 -- then he has a chance at 300 wins and it's all but impossible to keep him out of Cooperstown.
Aside from that, he remains a pleasure to watch, a reminder that you don't have to throw 95 to succeed in today's game, a reminder that pitching can still be as much art as raw power.
Follow the Blue Jays at Blue Jays Plus and the Orioles at Camden Depot.
<header class="article-header">Mark Buehrle is quietly building his Hall of Fame case with win No. 200
</header><header class="article-header"></header>
-
David Schoenfield, SweetSpot blogger
Close- Senior writer of SweetSpot baseball blog
- Been with ESPN.com
The veteran left-hander won his 200th career game as the Toronto Blue Jays ruined the Baltimore Orioles' home opener with a 12-5 victory. He's fourth on the active win list, behind Tim Hudson (214), CC Sabathia (208) and Bartolo Colon (205), but you get the feeling Buehrle will outlast all of them. He just turned 36 and, similar to Jamie Moyer, can succeed even without a blistering fastball. There's no reason he won't be able to pitch into his 40s if he wants to keep playing.
<aside class="inline inline-photo float-l"><figure>
<video style="display: none;"><source media="(min-width: 376px)" data-srcset="http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=267, <a href=" target="_blank" i?img='%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=534"' combiner="" a2.espncdn.com="">http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0410/mlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=534 2x"><source media="(max-width: 375px)" data-srcset="http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=375, <a href=" target="_blank" i?img='%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0410%2Fmlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=750"' combiner="" a2.espncdn.com="">http://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0410/mlb_buehrle10_md_1296x729.jpg&w=750 2x"></video>
<figcaption>Mark Buehrle's pitching style and savvy has gotten him to 200 career wins and could set him up for many more. <cite>AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</cite></figcaption></figure></aside>Buehrle got off to a great start last season, sitting at 10-1 with a 2.10 ERA on June 1. He threw eight scoreless innings to beat the Kansas City Royals that night and the Jays led the AL East by 3.5 games. But he'd win just one of his next 15 starts and the Jays fell out of the playoff race. For a pitcher so consistent, it was an inconsistent season. The key to his early success was keeping the ball in the park; he allowed just two home runs through the first 12 starts. Joshua Howsam of Blue Jays Plus also explains that Buehrle's curveball was key early on, but he then seemed to lose his release point, which explains the summer slump:
What this graphic shows is that, by July, Mark Buehrle was releasing the ball 0.25 feet closer to the center of home plate (horizontally) than he was at the beginning of the season. Now, that number might sound small, but in terms of release point for a pitcher, a quarter of a foot makes a tremendous difference in terms of command.
So we can see evidence that Buehrle’™s release point was a bit off which, on its own, doesn’™t really tell us a whole lot. But as we dive deeper into the numbers, we can see how that actually affected him.
At the start of this piece, I mentioned how Buehrle was using his curveball more as a means to set up his fastball inside. When he lost his release, that curveball abandoned him.
From April-June, hitters were swinging at Buehrle’s hook roughly 48% of the time (36.4% on pitches out of the zone). In July, hitters were only offering at 37% (season low chase percentage of 18.5%) of his curveballs. As a result, his strike (strikes + balls in play) percentage on the pitch dropped from just over 60% to a season-low 53%. So batters weren’t offering at many hooks, but when they did swing, they were absolutely hammering them to the tune of a whopping 1.143 SLG%, up from .288 from April-June. Impressively, not one curveball was hit on the ground against Buehrle in July.
During that 15-start stretch, batters hit .322 off Buehrle with 11 home runs. He allowed a .351 average on balls in play, but the ineffectiveness of his curveball suggests that wasn't just bad luck. He did right himself in September, with a 2.83 ERA and .267 batting average allowed.
That was a positive sign heading into 2015. Marcus Stroman's injury means Toronto will have to rely on Buehrle and 40-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to be more than just innings eaters in the middle of the rotation; they need lots of quality starts. His outing on Friday wasn't dominant, but few Buehrle outings are. He allowed eight hits and two walks in six innings while recording just one strikeout. But he got big outs: Everth Cabrera lined out to right field with the bases loaded to end the second, and he got Delmon Young to ground into a double play with two runners on to end the third.
Buehrle also does the little things to help himself out: He's won four Gold Gloves, and last year he allowed just one stolen base. He's allowed just 59 stolen bases in his career -- while picking off 95 runners. That's a major reason his career ERA is below his FIP.
With 200 wins, does he have a shot at the Hall of Fame? His career 58.2 WAR does lead active pitchers and actually compares favorably to several Hall of Fame pitchers:
Juan Marichal: 61.9
Don Drysdale: 61.2
Jim Bunning: 60.3
Three-Finger Brown: 55.1
Whitey Ford: 53.9
Sandy Koufax: 53.2
Early Wynn: 51.2
The knock against Buehrle -- which is fair, I think -- is that's rarely been one of the elite pitchers in the league in any given season. He did finish third in the AL in ERA in 2005 but has just four top-10 ERA finishes in his league. Obviously, to accumulate 58 career WAR he's had some good seasons, and Baseball-Reference.com credits him with four seasons of 5+ WAR and four more in the 4.0-4.9 range. Those are All-Star level seasons, if not Cy Young level.
Still, if he can average 13 wins per season -- and he's won exactly 13 five of the past six seasons -- the next five years, that's 264 wins. You have to start talking about him as a potential Hall of Famer then, even if it's more in the Don Sutton "compiler" mode. If he lasts as long as Moyer -- who won 16 games at age 45 -- then he has a chance at 300 wins and it's all but impossible to keep him out of Cooperstown.
Aside from that, he remains a pleasure to watch, a reminder that you don't have to throw 95 to succeed in today's game, a reminder that pitching can still be as much art as raw power.
Follow the Blue Jays at Blue Jays Plus and the Orioles at Camden Depot.
