3 Sunday w/analysis

San Diego and St. Louis is TO WIN 2 units while Bos is a 2-unit wager.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

San Diego -122 over SAN FRANCISCO
One thing that sticks out to us already this early in the year is that the prices on the favorites are shorter than previous years. We are strong advocates of playing value and usually that value lies in taking back a tag but if the sportsbooks are going to make adjustments to bettors leaning more to money line dogs, we’re happy to take advantage of some short prices. San Fran took two of three against the D-Backs in Arizona to open the year and scored 16 times in the process but things have been entirely different in San Diego. The Giants have scored three runs in the first three games of this series and now those cold bats will have to face Tyson Ross. Ross was solid in notching a pure quality start against the Angels on Tuesday. He carded a 2.69 xERA and a 16% swing and miss rate against current Giants hitters in 13 frames last year and has a decent career line against those same SF batters. In 30 career starts at Petco, Ross has posted a 1.93 ERA while holding foes to a .548 OPS. Last year, Ross posted a sub-3.00 ERA and it came with solid skill support. The past two seasons, a total of 320 innings is a fairly substantial body of work, and enough to suggest that Ross can maintain this level of success. The skills Ross displayed were nearly identical to those he showed during his 2013 breakout, and for the most part, they held up over his 31 starts. Ross’s ERA was fully supported by xERA, as he sustained the previous year's skill gains. He continued to get a lot of swings and misses, particularly on his wicked slider (24% swing and miss rate). With a heavy ground ball tilt, high strikeout rate and a pitcher-friendly home park, look for Ross to be one of the league's top starters again in 2015. More than that, however, is that he and the Padres are underpriced against Jake Peavy.

Peavy pitched for two teams (White Sox and Red Sox) in 2013 and two teams in 2014 (Red Sox and Giants). His ERA over that span was 3.95 with an xERA of 4.17. That Yo-yo ERA symbolizes how much he has bounced around over the last two years. It may be tempting to wager on him in hopes that he pitches like he did in 2012, but that old form isn't coming back. Three years of eroding skills - as shown in xERA (3.82, 4.00, 4.12) and skills trends - confirm consistent sub-4.00 ERA days are behind him. Peavy now enters his 14th major league season at the age of 34. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with more miles on his overworked arm than most. These aging, fly-ball pitchers are good for eating up some innings and nothing more. In San Diego, Tyson Ross should be -150 or higher against Jake Peavy. Peavy is a valueless starter that cannot thrive at this level anymore and if the market is going to give us cheap prices against him, we’re happy to oblige.

St. Louis -117 over CINCINNATI
We find another cheap price on a favorite here and we’re all over it. Rookie Raisel Iglesias will here because Cincinnati desperately needs a fifth starter until they get some healthy bodies back. He is unlikely to get another start if Homer Bailey returns from off-season forearm surgery by April 20, when a fifth starter is needed for a second time. Cuban emigre Iglesias impressed and intrigued scouts in the 2014 Arizona Fall League, though he has yet to appear in a regular-season game since signing with the Reds. His Cactus League performance suggests his control could be erratic but there are more issues than that. Iglesias was tagged for three jacks and 11 runs in 14 spring innings. He was constantly falling behind hitters and they made him pay. This kid is so green with very little experience outside of Cuba. In his last two full seasons playing in the Cuban National Series (we think that’s a league) Iglesias walked 84 batters in 160 innings. Iglesias must be faded here.

The Cardinals are a cheap price here for a couple of reasons. First, as unknown as Raisel Iglesias is, not many know about Carlos Martinez or just how good he is. Martinez has killer swing and miss stuff. His strong strikeout rate showed 'em what 2013's late-season fuss was all about. But while he held RHB to a .301 slugging %, his poor control versus lefties says there is work to do. Initially stymied by a lack of clear role, he shook off several rough starts to shine in the 2nd half of last year, which included seven starts. Martinez was one of the game's most dominant arms against RH bats with 11 K’s/9 against them and a 56% groundball rate. Other than having an extreme groundball tilt against lefties, he has otherwise had some trouble with them. Also of note that Martinez’s strong 9.5 K’s/9 as a starter us an indication that his strikeouts aren't short-stint generated. He's a pitcher that could emerge quickly in 2015 with an adjustment against lefties and this may be the last time you'll get him this cheap. This kid has nasty stuff and should be -170 against a raw rookie that can’t throw strikes. Laying 1½ runs and taking back +143 isn’t a bad option either. Invest.

Boston +102 over N.Y. YANKEES
8:00 PM EST. As long as the market continues to overvalue the dreadful Yankees, we’re going to keep betting against them. Prior to yesterday, the Yanks had scored 13 runs in 46 innings. Yesterday, they were down 8-1 very late when they added three garbage runs in the eighth inning. At one point, Joe Kelly retired 17 Yankees hitters in a row. After five games, the Yanks are batting .193 and now they’ll have to face another strikeout/groundball pitcher. Clay Buchholz opened the year by striking out nine Phillies and allowing just three hits and 0 runs in seven frames. Last year, Buchholz corrected his uncharacteristic 1H groundball/fly-ball (40%/40%) to his usual groundball-heavy ways in the second half. That carried over to his first start against Philly with a groundball/fly-ball split of 53%/20%. 65 of his 94 pitches were strikes and he figures to thrive again here against this useless lineup.

Masahiro Tanaka went just four innings against Toronto before being knocked after giving up five runs. The Yanks defense was shaky in that game but it’s been shaky in almost every game. This team is not good enough to overcome poor defense and allowing the opposition extra outs. Tanaka is a pitcher that could thrive and throw an absolute gem at any time. Tanaka hopes to demonstrate some positives for 2015 after missing over two months last season with a partial UCL tear. Thing is, to win in this league you need some run support and we have no idea where that run support is going to come from. The Red Sox have a better chance of scoring off Tanaka than the Yanks do of scoring off Buccholz and Buccholz also has a better chance of lasting longer. The NYY front office and Yankee fans are hoping that he Tanaka can return to his early 2014 glory, but expect uncertainty to reign throughout the season because of that fragile elbow. In the end, this isn’t about fading Tanaka. It’s all about fading the N.Y. Yankees as the chalk because they really are up against it when facing a high caliber pitcher like Clay Buchholz.

We get the cards 1 down 2 to go thanks sheerwood