| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 15 | 10 | 0.00 | +13.89 |
| Season to Date | 15 | 10 | 0.00 | +13.89 |
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Atlanta is 2.2 units to win 2. Rocks are a 2 unit bet.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ATLANTA -110 over Miami
We mentioned yesterday how the prices are much shorter on favorites so far and we see another example of that here. Miami has one win in six games. In their lone victory, the Fish blew an 8-1 lead before winning it in extra frames. They are batting .213 after six games and were already swept by the Braves. Mat Latos was the losing pitcher in one of those games and we don’t see anything changing here, as there are some pretty serious concerns about him. Latos missed a good chunk of the 2014 campaign due to elbow and knee injuries, but managed to own a 3.25 in 102 innings pitched. Latos’s 4.02 xERA in 2014 gives a much better measure of his effectiveness. It’s also worth noting that his skills took quite a nosedive as well. The decrease in strikeout rate is very troubling considering the significant drop in swing and miss % from 11% in ’13 to a run-of-the-mill 8% in ’14. Perhaps even more concerning is that his velocity fell 2 mph to 91 mph and that is what it topped out at in his first start. Though Latos’s control improved to just 2.3BB/9, his first pitch strike % suggests it could creep closer to 3. Mat Latos is a fly-ball pitcher with declining skills right across the board. He walked two batters in his first start in the first inning and never made it out for the second inning after giving up six hits and seven runs. One outing means little but Latos was showing signs of falling hard last year and that first outing, in which the plate was moving all over the place is another troubling sign among many.
Shelby Miller didn’t exactly blow away the Marlins in his season debut against them but he did bring 94 MPH heat and he induced 67% groundballs. Miller threw 97 pitches in just five innings, which is a bit of a concern but we trust he’ll be better the second time out. After August of last year, Miller started throwing his four-seam fastball less and began utilizing his curve ball more (four-seam fastball usage down 15%, curve up 10% and sinker up 13%). Those changes seemed to pay pretty significant dividends down the stretch. He had previously relied on what was essentially a two-pitch arsenal when you consider he threw his fastball 71% of the time and his curve around 18% of the time. Now armed with a sinker to go with a 94 mph four-seam fastball, curve and cutter, Miller’s first start was just a small preview of what he’s capable of. He’s still cheap and undervalued and that makes us buyers on him once again.
Colorado +126 over SAN FRANCISCO
4:00 PM EST. The Rockies opened the year with three straight wins on the road before losing two of three to the Cubbies at Coors this past weekend. Now they’ll take the road again and we liked what we’re seeing from this team. The Rocks have scored five runs or more in all six of their games and they have a chance to keep that going here. The difference between the two starters here is that Chris Heston did not make the team out of spring training while Rockies starter, Eddie Butler did. The Giants placed Matt Cain on the disabled list and recalled Heston to make a spot start on Wednesday, April 8 in Arizona. He made his big league debut as a September call-up in 2014 after he found success at Triple-A. There isn’t much upside in his game and he lacks the power arsenal to be a standout in any role. Heston generally works off of his high-80s sinker that barely scrapes 90 mph. He may not get many swings and misses with it, but he commands it well and can induce ground balls. His other pitches include an average curve, a fringy change-up, and below-average slider. Heston has a long, lean frame and uses his height well to pitch downhill. He also repeats his delivery well, which contributes to his consistent pitch location. He has a career 3.56 ERA, 2.6BB/9 and 6.8K’s/9 in 771 minor league innings. Heston is serviceable and he did win his season debut in Arizona but he was a pooch in that game. He’s not proven enough to warrant being this price in his second career start at this level. At age 27, there's a reason why Heston has spent his career in the minors.
Butler won a rotation spot for the Rockies despite recent shoulder issues, just five innings of experience at the Triple-A level, and a less than stellar 2014 campaign. It’s unclear whether he truly regressed in ’14 or if he was a victim of shoulder soreness with a correction coming. His 92-95 mph fastball, hard slider, and improved change-up give him three plus pitches. He pitches to groundball contact and has historically limited walks with a nice strikeout rate; all of which better his chances for success at Coors Field. Butler comes at hitters from a ¾ arm slot with repeatable mechanics. His lack of innings in the upper minors means he will have some growing pains in the majors, but there is a very high ceiling here. The Rockies signed Butler for $1 million after taking him 46th overall in the 2012 draft as compensation for the loss of free agent Mark Ellis to the Dodgers. He began his career by leading the Rookie-level Pioneer League in ERA (2.13), WHIP (1.06) and opponent average (.230), but his encore was even more impressive. He began 2013 at low Class A Asheville but worked his way through three levels, throwing an eye-opening inning at the Futures Game, and finishing 9-5, with a 1.80 ERA overall, ranking second in the minors in ERA and opponent average (.178). Butler's fastball, slider and changeup are plus pitches with exceptional movement. He touches 99 mph with a fastball that sits at 95-96. With its life and his ability to spot it, Butler earns 70 grades or higher from scouts for his heater. His changeup is extraordinary, a finished pitch he throws at 88 mph that bottoms out like a split and is thrown with great arm speed. Butler's slider is 85-88 mph and features tight, late break. He shows good feel for his craft, as he can add and subtract and vary the break on his secondary stuff. In addition to a power sinker, Butler throws a four-seamer that he worked hard at to make more consistent to his arm side. Over three minor league seasons Butler logged 334 innings while posting a 2.64 ERA, 2.7BB/9, 7.2 K’s/9 and .217 oppBA. Butler is the superior prospect here that offers up so much more value as a dog than fill-in Chris Heston offers up as the chalk.
