Top 5 MVP snubs in NBA history
Tom Haberstroh
ESPN INSIDER
The MVP will go to a deserving candidate this season. With award favoritesStephen Curry and James Harden posting incredible seasons by any serious measure, the winner will have earned it.
Other years? Not so much.
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On Monday, I listed the biggest MVP reaches in NBA history -- the guys who won the award with little to no statistical backing. Turns out, Steve Nash's MVP awards were not validated by the numbers, but rather the enduring legacy of what his Phoenix Suns did for the league.
In today's edition, I'll look at the snubs -- the guys who didn't win the award, but who absolutely should have in the eyes of advanced metrics. To create an advanced metric composite, we'll lean on three all-in-one metrics to rate each MVP candidate: Justin Kubatko's win shares (WS), Daniel Myers' VORP (box plus-minus that factors in playing time) and ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton's WARP.
A side note: In Monday's edition, I used box plus-minus instead of its statistical cousin, VORP, but the latter makes more sense to use as an apples-to-apples comparison. Like WARP and WS, VORP is a counting stat that factors in minutes, whereas BPM is a rate stat like PER. Using VORP doesn't drastically overhaul Monday's reach rankings, but it would have moved Nash's 2006 MVP ahead of Allen Iverson's 2001 to give the Suns' point guard the top two spots. Otherwise, the VORP ranking was unchanged.
Enough of the alphabet soup. A bit of a public service announcement: Though not every media member relies on advanced metrics, they should be an essential tool for an MVP vote. After all, it's the storyteller's job to craft a narrative. It's the statistician's job to make a serious valuation, and the MVP vote is, by definition, about measuring value.
Combining those three metrics to make a composite ranking, I found the candidates whom voters overlooked the most from a statistical perspective. So which runner-ups were shafted the most? Let's take a look.
1. Kevin Garnett
2004-05 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 11th.
Actual MVP: Steve Nash
Let's do a little exercise here: Player A: 24.2 points, league-leading 13.9 rebounds. 5.0 assists on 49.9 percent shooting. Player B: 22.2 points, league-leading 13.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists on 50.2 percent shooting. Similar seasons, right? Who is Player A? That's Garnett in 2003-04, when he won the MVP almost unanimously. Player B is Garnett the very next season, when he didn't even crack the top 10 in the MVP vote.
Wait, what? How does that happen? So here's what went down. In 2004-05, the Timberwolves followed up a Western Conference finals appearance by not making the playoffs because All-NBA point guard Sam Cassell's balky back knocked him out for one-third of the season; Latrell Sprewell mailed in the season because he was bitter after what he felt was the Timberwolves' lowball extension offer the previous summer ("I have a family to feed"); Flip Saunders was fired midseason amid the turmoil.
And because his supporting cast failed him, voters blamed Garnett, despite him ranking as the best player by any statistical measure. If you're wondering how current PER leader Anthony Davis will fare in the MVP vote if the Pelicans miss the playoffs, look to Garnett in 2004-05. Let's hope the media does better.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1978-79 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 4th.
Actual MVP: Moses Malone
Abdul-Jabbar didn't place in the top three in the vote even though he bested the actual MVP, Malone, in every all-in-one metric. Malone's Rockets and Abdul-Jabbar's Lakers finished with the exact same record of 47-35, so this wasn't a case of voters being blinded by the team's record. Malone was a monster that season, leading the league in rebounds and averaging 24.8 points per game, but he anchored the second-worst defense in the NBA.
Abdul-Jabbar was just as good if not better in every category, but he probably suffered from voter fatigue. At age 31, the center had already won five MVPs at that point, and Malone was the new kid on the block at 23 years old. Advanced metrics weren't even a thought back then, so it's hard to place too much blame on the voters. But Abdul-Jabbar getting only 7 percent of the vote was egregious. Think of this as the earlier version of the 2011 MVP sham when Derrick Rosesomehow bested LeBron James. Speaking of which ...
3. LeBron James
2010-11 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 3rd.
Actual MVP: Derrick Rose
The metrics loved James in 2010-11, but fallout from the Decision and the "disappointing" 58-24 season from the Miami Heat irked voters. With Derrick Rose, Tom Thibodeau and the Chicago Bulls' surprising rise to the top of the East, the voting committee was disenchanted with James enough to drop him to third behind Rose and Dwight Howard.
In retrospect, voters were probably too emotional when they cast their ballots. James finished first in all three all-in-one metrics while Rose didn't finish higher than third in any, and Howard finished as low as sixth in VORP. James wasn't his best in 2010-11, but it was still good enough to be better than everyone else. If he had won the 2011 MVP, he may have become the first player ever to have five straight MVPs.
4. Michael Jordan
1989-90 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 3rd.
Actual MVP: Magic Johnson
As I wrote in Monday's piece, there's no way that Jordan should have finished with just five MVPs in his career. Looking back statistically, his 1990 non-MVP was probably the biggest snub of all (Interestingly enough, Hakeem Olajuwonactually finished with more WARP than both Jordan and Charles Barkley in 1993, when Barkley won it). The 1990 MVP was essentially a three-way tie between Johnson, Barkley and Jordan, but it should have been Jordan's outright.
That season Jordan lead the league in scoring (33.6 points per game) and did so while being first-team all-defense, a two-way combo that Barkley and Johnson couldn't even dream of accomplishing. Because of his all-around game, Jordan crushed his peers in WS, VORP and WARP, but he trailed in the voting mostly because ... I'm not quite sure. Remember, Jordan was still known as a selfish non-winner at this point in his career despite his defensive accolades and leading the Bulls in assists. Ah, the power of perception.
5. David Robinson
1993-94 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 2nd.
Actual MVP: Hakeem Olajuwon
The 1994 MVP race was blown wide-open once Jordan decided to try his hand at baseball the previous summer. Here was Robinson's stat-line: a league-leading 29.8 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 1.7 steals on 50.7 percent shooting. Pick your jaw off the floor and let me add that was the season he scored 71 points in a single game. Alas, it wasn't enough.
The Dream took home the award because he was also amazing that season, but mostly because the Rockets finished with a superior record (58-24 to the Spurs' 55-27). Robinson finished with 20.3 win shares (Olajuwon had 14.3), 10.6 VORP (Olajuwon had 7.5) and 27.3 WARP (Olajuwon had 21.9). From the advanced metrics perspective, it wasn't close. Robinson ended up winning the 1995 MVP, but Olajuwon would get his revenge by dominating Robinson in the playoffs en route to two titles. Still, Robinson was robbed in 1994.
The other top-ranked runner-ups:
Jordan 1988-89 (Composite Rk 1st, finished 2nd); Karl Malone 1997-98 (1st, 2nd); Michael Jordan 1986-87 (1st, 2nd).
Tom Haberstroh
ESPN INSIDER
The MVP will go to a deserving candidate this season. With award favoritesStephen Curry and James Harden posting incredible seasons by any serious measure, the winner will have earned it.
Other years? Not so much.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
On Monday, I listed the biggest MVP reaches in NBA history -- the guys who won the award with little to no statistical backing. Turns out, Steve Nash's MVP awards were not validated by the numbers, but rather the enduring legacy of what his Phoenix Suns did for the league.
In today's edition, I'll look at the snubs -- the guys who didn't win the award, but who absolutely should have in the eyes of advanced metrics. To create an advanced metric composite, we'll lean on three all-in-one metrics to rate each MVP candidate: Justin Kubatko's win shares (WS), Daniel Myers' VORP (box plus-minus that factors in playing time) and ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton's WARP.
A side note: In Monday's edition, I used box plus-minus instead of its statistical cousin, VORP, but the latter makes more sense to use as an apples-to-apples comparison. Like WARP and WS, VORP is a counting stat that factors in minutes, whereas BPM is a rate stat like PER. Using VORP doesn't drastically overhaul Monday's reach rankings, but it would have moved Nash's 2006 MVP ahead of Allen Iverson's 2001 to give the Suns' point guard the top two spots. Otherwise, the VORP ranking was unchanged.
Enough of the alphabet soup. A bit of a public service announcement: Though not every media member relies on advanced metrics, they should be an essential tool for an MVP vote. After all, it's the storyteller's job to craft a narrative. It's the statistician's job to make a serious valuation, and the MVP vote is, by definition, about measuring value.
Combining those three metrics to make a composite ranking, I found the candidates whom voters overlooked the most from a statistical perspective. So which runner-ups were shafted the most? Let's take a look.
1. Kevin Garnett
2004-05 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 11th.
Actual MVP: Steve Nash
Let's do a little exercise here: Player A: 24.2 points, league-leading 13.9 rebounds. 5.0 assists on 49.9 percent shooting. Player B: 22.2 points, league-leading 13.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists on 50.2 percent shooting. Similar seasons, right? Who is Player A? That's Garnett in 2003-04, when he won the MVP almost unanimously. Player B is Garnett the very next season, when he didn't even crack the top 10 in the MVP vote.
Wait, what? How does that happen? So here's what went down. In 2004-05, the Timberwolves followed up a Western Conference finals appearance by not making the playoffs because All-NBA point guard Sam Cassell's balky back knocked him out for one-third of the season; Latrell Sprewell mailed in the season because he was bitter after what he felt was the Timberwolves' lowball extension offer the previous summer ("I have a family to feed"); Flip Saunders was fired midseason amid the turmoil.
And because his supporting cast failed him, voters blamed Garnett, despite him ranking as the best player by any statistical measure. If you're wondering how current PER leader Anthony Davis will fare in the MVP vote if the Pelicans miss the playoffs, look to Garnett in 2004-05. Let's hope the media does better.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1978-79 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 4th.
Actual MVP: Moses Malone
Abdul-Jabbar didn't place in the top three in the vote even though he bested the actual MVP, Malone, in every all-in-one metric. Malone's Rockets and Abdul-Jabbar's Lakers finished with the exact same record of 47-35, so this wasn't a case of voters being blinded by the team's record. Malone was a monster that season, leading the league in rebounds and averaging 24.8 points per game, but he anchored the second-worst defense in the NBA.
Abdul-Jabbar was just as good if not better in every category, but he probably suffered from voter fatigue. At age 31, the center had already won five MVPs at that point, and Malone was the new kid on the block at 23 years old. Advanced metrics weren't even a thought back then, so it's hard to place too much blame on the voters. But Abdul-Jabbar getting only 7 percent of the vote was egregious. Think of this as the earlier version of the 2011 MVP sham when Derrick Rosesomehow bested LeBron James. Speaking of which ...
3. LeBron James
2010-11 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 3rd.
Actual MVP: Derrick Rose
The metrics loved James in 2010-11, but fallout from the Decision and the "disappointing" 58-24 season from the Miami Heat irked voters. With Derrick Rose, Tom Thibodeau and the Chicago Bulls' surprising rise to the top of the East, the voting committee was disenchanted with James enough to drop him to third behind Rose and Dwight Howard.
In retrospect, voters were probably too emotional when they cast their ballots. James finished first in all three all-in-one metrics while Rose didn't finish higher than third in any, and Howard finished as low as sixth in VORP. James wasn't his best in 2010-11, but it was still good enough to be better than everyone else. If he had won the 2011 MVP, he may have become the first player ever to have five straight MVPs.
4. Michael Jordan
1989-90 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 3rd.
Actual MVP: Magic Johnson
As I wrote in Monday's piece, there's no way that Jordan should have finished with just five MVPs in his career. Looking back statistically, his 1990 non-MVP was probably the biggest snub of all (Interestingly enough, Hakeem Olajuwonactually finished with more WARP than both Jordan and Charles Barkley in 1993, when Barkley won it). The 1990 MVP was essentially a three-way tie between Johnson, Barkley and Jordan, but it should have been Jordan's outright.
That season Jordan lead the league in scoring (33.6 points per game) and did so while being first-team all-defense, a two-way combo that Barkley and Johnson couldn't even dream of accomplishing. Because of his all-around game, Jordan crushed his peers in WS, VORP and WARP, but he trailed in the voting mostly because ... I'm not quite sure. Remember, Jordan was still known as a selfish non-winner at this point in his career despite his defensive accolades and leading the Bulls in assists. Ah, the power of perception.
5. David Robinson
1993-94 WS: 1st | VORP: 1st
WARP: 1st: Composite Rk: 1st. Actual MVP rank: 2nd.
Actual MVP: Hakeem Olajuwon
The 1994 MVP race was blown wide-open once Jordan decided to try his hand at baseball the previous summer. Here was Robinson's stat-line: a league-leading 29.8 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 1.7 steals on 50.7 percent shooting. Pick your jaw off the floor and let me add that was the season he scored 71 points in a single game. Alas, it wasn't enough.
The Dream took home the award because he was also amazing that season, but mostly because the Rockets finished with a superior record (58-24 to the Spurs' 55-27). Robinson finished with 20.3 win shares (Olajuwon had 14.3), 10.6 VORP (Olajuwon had 7.5) and 27.3 WARP (Olajuwon had 21.9). From the advanced metrics perspective, it wasn't close. Robinson ended up winning the 1995 MVP, but Olajuwon would get his revenge by dominating Robinson in the playoffs en route to two titles. Still, Robinson was robbed in 1994.
The other top-ranked runner-ups:
Jordan 1988-89 (Composite Rk 1st, finished 2nd); Karl Malone 1997-98 (1st, 2nd); Michael Jordan 1986-87 (1st, 2nd).
