| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.54 |
| Last 30 Days | 19 | 11 | 0.00 | +20.95 |
| Season to Date | 19 | 11 | 0.00 | +20.95 |
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Colorado +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Rockies have won the first two games of this series and they’re now 5-0 on the road with 10 hits or more in every game with the exception of last night in which they belted out nine hits. By contrast, the Giants have lost five straight and they’ve scored one run in the first two games of this series. Hot versus cold is one angle that holds weight here but there’s more reasons to fade the Giants and his name is Tim Lincecum.
Lincecum threw seven shutout innings Friday at San Diego in his season debut but didn't get a decision in a 1-0 loss. He allowed four hits and three walks, while striking out five in the outing. On paper it’s not a bad line but Petco has made many pitchers look good over the years and this was another case of that. Pay no attention to Lincecum’s 0.00 ERA after one start. After year #3 of sub-replacement level value, Lincecum is no longer relevant. His strikeout rate is on a three year decline, which coincides with a loss in velocity. His swing and miss rate is cracking. Lincecum’s disaster starts are piling up and his relief appearances have become frequent. Lincecum does retain his moderate groundball lean and his xERA is still stubbornly average but the chance of a mid-career U-turn back to profit borders on freakish. Current Rockies have over 200 career AB’s versus Lincecum and they’re hitting .274 against him while taking him yard eight times and we certainly like their chances of getting to him again.
Guess which pitcher had the lowest ERA and highest strikeout rate among Colorado’s starters last year. Tyler Matzek is right. Matzek went 6-11 with a 4.05 ERA in 118 innings a year ago. Yeah, it's the Rockies, but that doesn't discount the rookie's 2nd half advances (K-rate, groundball %, ERA/xERA and dominant start/disaster start split). This kid has very decent stuff and is a former first round pick with upside. However, Matzek’s wildness remains his nemesis so the extent of any investment on him hinges on one’s tolerance for it. In this case our tolerance is high because the Giants are struggling at the dish and Matzek is a dog. If he was favored our tolerance would be much lower and if Tim Lincecum wasn’t on the other side, our tolerance would be even lower. In the end, this wager is all about fading Lincecum and backing an inspired Rockies team that has shot out of the gate guns a blazing.
Oakland +102 over HOUSTON
The A’s have won the first two games of this series while outscoring the Astros 12-1. Eight games in and the Astros now bring their puny .197 batting average to face Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is another former top prospect who is showing signs of becoming an impact pitcher, finally translating his raw stuff into strikeouts. Maintaining the flashes of good control that Pomeranz showed in 2014 is key here, and if his first start was any indication then he could be in for a big year. In his first start, Pomeranz faced Seattle and didn’t walk a batter in seven innings. He only surrendered two hits, struck out six and didn’t allow a run. Pomeranz turned in your classic post-hype sleeper season in 2014, as he emerged from the pitching graveyard in Colorado to post a 2.35 ERA with Oakland over 69 innings. As a pooch in Houston, Pomeranz is more than worthy of consideration here.
The Astros are favored here because Collin McHugh is coming off a big year in which he went 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA in 155 innings over 25 starts. With a name right out of a British whodunit, he wrote his own storyline. McHugh shattered every skill he previously held at any level. But lofty heights can make for spectacular falls, so while we'll say "Pursue McHugh when he’s a dog," you simply can't expect 2015 to be a page-turner like the original. Before you invest in McHugh, keep in mind that he rode an elite control rate in the 2H, a mark that had no underlying support (low 56% first-pitch strike rate). Don't expect anything close to a repeat in 2015. McHugh’s strong overall skills from his 2014 breakout make him interesting for now, but his long history of mediocrity suggests there is a possible "second time around the league" correction coming. Wrong side favored.
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