Thursday 4/16/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$15000 - CELIAS COUNSEL - 1ST LEG - 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES. NON WINNERS $30,000 IN 2014.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 ALLIES GIFT 3/1


# 1 HAPE 5/2


# 6 MASS RAIL 8/1


The consensus in this race is that ALLIES GIFT is the one to beat. She has been squaring off competitively and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the most solid in the pack. The group gives this interesting entrant a nice chance to come home a winner, class ratings are tops in the group of horses. Has to be given a look based on the nice TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the last race. HAPE - A specialty of the panel of smart guys is recognizing a trainer with a good ROI percentage when a horse goes up in class. The trainer/horse combo stats point out that this combination are solid in the money finishers when working as a team. MASS RAIL - The group saw this horse's name in a dream. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small play.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$6600 - HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $6500 W/ALLOWANCES KAUFFMAN PICKS 3 OVER 2 NOBLE PICKS 4 OVER 6 HOLLIDAY 7 OVER 5


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ORSE POWER 5/2


# 3 JACK APPLE 3/1


# 4 PANHELLENIC 7/1


Feel pretty confident putting money down on ORSE POWER. May provide us a top prize based on respectable recent speed figures - earning an average of 85. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 84). Selectors love to play the driver of this gelding - tremendous win percent recently. JACK APPLE - Worth considering this time if only for the very nice speed rating earned in the most recent contest. Deserves a shot given the above average win stat he sports. PANHELLENIC - Horoscope said take a chance today, this entrant is as good as any to take a shot with.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 56

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE APRIL 16, 2014 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 MAGIA 1/1


# 7 LA PASTILLA 9/5


# 6 PRINCIPESSA 5/2


MAGIA figures to be the wager in here. Keep this mare in your exotics as Hernandez has given backers some double digit dividends. Players should take a good look at this one as this mare has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. Has been close up on the wire most every time recently. LA PASTILLA - I like the jockey on this mare - solid chance to win the contest. This one has been consistently racing well lately. PRINCIPESSA - Ought to compete strongly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group of animals. Ranked high in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Pimlico

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - SA - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2014 - 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 WINDING ROAD 6/1


# 2 PARODY 4/1


# 4 DONTBOTHERMENOW 3/1


WINDING ROAD looks like the wager in here. Has recorded strong Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. With one of the best jockeys in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 93 speed fig which is one of the best in this field. PARODY - With a +6 ROI, this rider and trainer combo has produced competitive gains lately for players. Could beat this group of animals given the 89 speed figure recorded in his last outing. DONTBOTHERMENOW - Has been moving very well in races of this distance, going 9 - 26 under similar conditions. Competitive jockey and conditioner combo winning 15 percent of their races working together.

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #7 - Rating = 1
#2 Caval - Fair odds 8/5


Exactas: 2 over 1,5,7
Also play the opposite which is 1,5,7 over 2 (but not for as much money as the other exacta, for example $2 2 over 1,5,7 and then $1 1,5,7 over 2)

Caval is the key to profit here and although I wouldn't go as far as saying she's a standout, if you ran the race 100 times she would probably win 35 to 40, which in racing is a pretty high percentage of the time. She won in her career debut last June in California by 5 lengths and with gas left in the tank, earning a 99 Equibase Speed Figure which for 2 year olds fillies at that time of year is stakes quality. She came back in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar in August and was the even money favorite but finished last, basically eased. Whatever the issue was, her recent sensational workouts tell us she's just fine and if she runs as she did last year, particularly as a more mature 3 year old, she's going to win.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 FURIOUS SHOT (ML=7/2)
#3 KEYSTONE COP (ML=7/5)


FURIOUS SHOT - Stalking speed. My pals and I like this animal. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. KEYSTONE COP - I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid contest within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GOLDEN LUCK (ML=6/1),

GOLDEN LUCK - Awfully tough to play this racer when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit lately.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 FURIOUS SHOT is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #3 - Post: 1:44pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 AMINA PERFECT (ML=6/1)
#6 GATHAN'S GIRL (ML=5/1)


AMINA PERFECT - Has discovered a good spot this time around. GATHAN'S GIRL - This jockey and conditioner have a profitable return on investment when they team up. I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed figures under similar conditions are tops in this bunch. Finished fourth at Golden Gate last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 5/1 in this event, she looks like a possible contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HIDDEN REALITY (ML=9/5), #3 BIG ROSIE BROWN (ML=5/2), #1 SILENT REWARD (ML=9/2),

HIDDEN REALITY - 9/5 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when looking at the most recent outings. BIG ROSIE BROWN - 5/2 is just too low of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. SILENT REWARD - On a downward moving series. Speed ratings keep decreasing. Didn't finish in the money on Mar 5th at Golden Gate. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. Most unsatisfactory rating last time out at Golden Gate at 1 mile. Don't feel this runner will improve too much in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 AMINA PERFECT is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 3:16 PM EASTERN POST

6½ FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE

#2 BELLA THE BANDIT
#3 PRINCESS JENNY
#5 ELMRA
#1 ANNIE WALKER

#2 BELLA THE BANDIT is the overall pace profile leader in this claiming field today sprinting at, or about, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, and has won 3 of 5 in her career to date, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" found in her last start, as well as in her 5th race back. Jockey Taylor Rice has been in her irons on three previous occasions, winning twice, and is back today for her 4th ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!" #3 PRINCESS JENNY, a 5-1 shot, takes a BIG class drop (-16), and has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.

Dortmund over AP in latest Top 10

Too close to call?

Take your pick: Dortmund, American Pharoah or American Pharoah, Dortmund.

Both are beyond worthy favorites for the Kentucky Derby in less than three weeks. And who knows? By post time they could wind up as co-favorites.

For now, the here's the verdict: In a photo finish, it's big, bold, unbeaten Dortmund over his swift, smooth-striding stablemate American Pharoah.

Dortmund is No. 1 in the AP's final Run to the Roses Top 10 Derby contenders, and ends up going wire to wire in the weekly rankings. He's 6 for 6, and the fact he's battle tested bodes well for his chances in a 20-horse cavalry charge in the Derby.

Of course, since American Pharoah has won so easily - without breaking a sweat, really - there's no telling what he's capable of if seriously challenged. Then again, he could simply blow away the competition on the first Saturday in May.

Either way, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert is delighted because he trains both standout 3-year-old colts. It's a pretty strong arsenal for a guy seeking his fourth Derby win. He last won with War Emblem in 2002. He'll also send out Santa Anita Derby runner-up One Lucky Dane.

Dortmund has done everything right in winning the Robert B. Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. He arrived at Churchill Downs on Monday, and will have one timed workout before the big race.

American Pharoah, meanwhile, has excelled in his two races this year after being voted 2-year-old champion despite missing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with an injury. He won the Rebel at Oaklawn Park by 6 1/4 lengths even after stumbling at the start and losing a shoe in the slop, and was breathtaking in an eight-length romp in the Arkansas Derby over the weekend.

So impressed after the race, Baffert said this of American Pharoah: ''I've had a lot of nice horses. I think he's the most exceptional 3-year-old.''

We'll find out May 2.

Carpe Diem, the Blue Grass winner, slipped to No. 3 with American Pharoah's move to No. 2.

There were no other changes in the Top 10, although No. 10 Upstart missed a workout last week with a fever.

The 35-race Derby-prep season ended with the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes. A maximum of 20 horses run in the Derby, and the field is selected from point totals earned for designated races.

Louisiana Derby winner International Star has leads the qualifying system with 171 points. Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem 164 and American Pharoah 160. Madefromlucky, fourth in the Arkansas Derby, is 21st with 30 points. For him to get in the field, a horse ranked higher would have to drop out.

Here's our Top 10:

1. Dortmund (Bob Baffert, trainer; Martin Garcia, jockey): Unbeaten colt arrived at Churchill Downs on Monday, with one pre-Derby workout scheduled. ... His 6 for 6 record matches marks of Seattle Slew and Smarty Jones before their Derby wins in 1977, 2004. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs (May 2). ... Final Derby future odds (pool 4): 6-1.

2. American Pharoah (Baffert, Victor Espinoza): Breathtaking performance to win Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. ... Two overpowering wins at 3 after 2-year-old championship season followed by an injury. ... . Has won 4 in a row after finishing fifth in first career start. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 5-1.

3. Carpe Diem (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Blue Grass winner is Pletcher's top contender. ... Previously won Tampa Bay Derby and brings 4 for 5 mark to Derby. Only loss was runner-up finish in Breeders' Cup Juvenile ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 10-1.

4. Firing Line (Simon Callaghan, Gary Stevens): Sunland Derby winner worked 5 furlongs in 59.20 at Santa Anita on April 11. ... Two more workouts planned at Santa Anita before trip to Louisville on April 26. ... Comes in with two wins in five starts (includes two close seconds to Dortmund). ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 13-1.

5. Frosted (Kiaran McLaughlin, Joel Rosario): Wood winner back in Florida to continue training before shipping to Louisville. ... Was 0 for 3 before winning New York's major Derby prep. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 40-1.

6. Materiality (Pletcher, Velazquez): Florida Derby winner worked 4 furlongs in 48.41 at Palm Beach Downs on April 11. .... Bound for Churchill Downs on April 21. ... Comes into Derby undefeated in three races. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 12-1.

7. International Star (Mike Maker, Miguel Mena): Resume is strong: Lecomte, Risen Star, Louisiana Derby wins. ... Can he pull it off in Louisville? ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 17-1.

8. Far Right (Ron Moquett, Mike Smith): Finished strong to gain distant second in Arkansas Derby and earn needed points. ... Previously won Smarty Jones and Southwest. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 39-1.

9. Mubtaahij (Mike De Kock, Christophe Soumillon): After the results of the preps in Arkansas and California, tough to see UAE Derby winner as factor in big race. .... Nonetheless, won his prep impressively, too. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 8-1.

10. Upstart (Rick Violette, Jr., Jose Ortiz): Florida Derby runner-up after finishing first in Fountain of Youth and being DQ'd to second for questionable interference. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 18-1.

Keep an eye on: Bolo, Danzig Moon, El Kabeir, Ocho Ocho Ocho, One Lucky Dane.

Mohawk: Thursday 4/16 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

7/7,8,9/4,1,0/1,3,6=$18


LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,3,6/3,6,8/7/2,4,9,10=$36

MEET STATS: 13 - 42 / $58.70 BEST BETS: 4 - 4 / $13.30

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: BLACK QUEEN (4th)

Spot Play: WORLD CLASS IZZY (8th)


Race 1

(7) LADYONE showed good speed one occasion last season - when she behaved - now gets turned over to trainer Bax who excels with young trotters. Top call in the opener. (4) JLS TOO HOT TAJ showed promise in her debut last year then it looked like something went wrong in her next start. She was put away and returns off a good qualifying mile. (1) TYMAL SIGNATURE continues to earn checks when she stays flat but isn't the greatest win bet you'll find on the card.

Race 2

(5) MAKE WAY drops back to a spot where she's boss if driven correctly. She'll be tough to beat here. (4) DEBBIES MACH gets post relief tonight and should be right in the thick of things throughout here. (6) FROSTY DELIGHT closed powerfully for 2nd last week but often comes too late after the winner has been decided. A minor award appears to be her ceiling here.

Race 3

(1) HAPE won the final of the Autumn Series then took a break. She looks solid here if she minds her manners. (3) MAGIC SHELLEY showed some talent last year and has two clean qualifying lines to build on here. She is a top threat if she stays flat. (2) ALLIES GIFT already has two wins in 3 tries this campaign, most recently a big first-over effort at Flamboro; contender.

Race 4

(7) BLACK QUEEN was beaten by one last week who is undefeated and shows great promise. Tonight should be her graduation party. (8) MISS SANGRIA left hard and closed well again for 2nd over an off track last week. She is improving and dangerous. (4) SHESAGAMEMAJOR has taken action at the windows in both starts but shown little. She could wake up here moving inside.

Race 5

(9) TYMAL COLLOSUS brushed and crushed last week and these don't look much tougher; top call. (7) ARCTIC TALE has beaten better only two months ago so the $12K tag is a bit of a red flag; mixed signals. (8) THUNDERAWAY has been going great guns at London and gets red-hot pilot McNair here; using.

Race 6

(4) JETTINS DRAGON took a big drop and was claimed as expected. He did well that night to close from 10th to 4th on a wet track. His main foes draw farthest outside so he could get the job done here. (10) LOST IN PANSLATION was claimed off a near miss in the same dash and should be all systems go for his new connections even from out there. (9) SHIPPS XPECTANCY beat the top two off a sweet following trip. A repeat of that trip is unlikely here.

Race 7

(1) WINDSUN CHANEL closed rapidly into an accelerating late pace and is clearly much better now then when she was laid up last fall; top billing. (6) TWIN B SWEETHEART finally gets to leave from the middle of the gate and should get put into play early here; using. (3) FRANNY LOVE DAT hasn't been able to breakthrough for her maiden victory and is more likely for a minor share again here.

Race 8

(3) WORLD CLASS IZZY is out of a dam that has produced two winners from two that have raced, one of which took a mark of 1:52 3/5. She closed well over an off track in here lone qualifier and could get it done at a good price here. (6) MUSCLE MACK was an easy winner out of town and should be formidable first time over the big track. (8) BALLYKEEL BOMBER should be there if he stays flat - which looks like a big if for most of these.

Race 9

(7) BAD OUTLAW won so easily first time in Montini's barn that it's hard to see him getting beat here vs. most of the ones he beat last week. Top call at a likely short price. (2) CAPELO tried the top one briefly on the backside but didn't have much fight to offer. Waples may keep him covered up on the inside here and come late. (4) MOTOR SHARK moves into Riley's barn after showing moderate improvement I n his last couple at Rideau. He can round out the tri or super here.

Race 10

(2) BIG MAGICK raced solidly in his debut, closing late to nab 2nd behind a dominant winner. He stands a good chance of graduating here. (4) ADORE HIM showed little from the outside is his debut but should benefit from that start and be much closer here. (9) PL IDAHO shows flashes of crazy wicked speed and if he stays flat will be very hard to beat; that is not a given however. (10) SIERRA MADRE qualified well over an off track and can get a piece of this even from out there. (6) GIVE EM BACK has shown good speed on occasion and sometimes hangs around for a slice.

Yonkers: Thursday 4/16 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 4 - 24 / $17.90 BEST BETS: 0 - 2 / $0.00

Best Bet: IDEAL A LITTLE (5th)

Spot Play: MY SPRING FLING (4th)


Race 1

(1) BAZILLION has speed and inside position against a mostly dull field; Bartlett's choice. (3) TOUCH AND GO comes off a win at this level but loses his driver. (8) LUCKY HOUSE comes off a throw-out line; exotics chance.

Race 2

(2) THUNDER NOISE triple-dropped in class and failed in his attempt to bottom-out the field. He deserves a second chance to make amends. (3) DANISHDUJOUR was claimed right back by Banca. Gelding had three wins and two seconds for this barn in February/March. (4) REAL MARRIAGE draws better and can get a piece.

Race 3

(5) MACH THIS WAY reaches the basement condition level after another subpar effort. She is hard to love, but it is telling that Bartlett chose her. (3) JUST SAYIN faces older but has the form to compete. (6) LOCAL ART has the ability to win if right.

Race 4

(4) MY SPRING FLING has been racing fairly well and moves into a high percentage barn. (2) GET THE LOOK moves inside this week and figures to be firing early. (1) PASSION R VIRGINIE can save ground and get a piece but is not going to reach the top spot on any of my tickets.

Race 5

(1) IDEAL A LITTLE hasn't done much since the claim from outside posts but should perk up with pylon position tonight. (3) DENYITTOTHEEND has speed and form; strong combination. (5) SOOKIE picked up her game in the second start for this barn. (6) ALWAYS LOVE ME comes off a string of good efforts.

Race 6

(4) ROCKIN RAMBARAN moves from a 6% barn to a 26% barn; any questions? (1) CRIMSON CRUISER has been racing fairly well and should keep form for his new trainer. (6) KEEMOSABE steps up off a pair of big efforts and might just be sharp enough to handle the class rise.

Race 7

(3) CLASSY LANE ROSE came up with a nice mile off the bench and should be sitting first or second with a big shot. (1) MACHO CHICK has been racing a bit better lately; drops and draws best. (5) BAHAMA BLUE arrives from Florida for a capable barn.

Race 8

This seems like a competitive event with multiple options. I'll take a shot with (5) JUST THAT, who rallied nicely last time and could get a fast pace to close into. (4) REMISSIONOFSINS & (3) I'M THE REAL MAJOR both have speed and merit consideration. (2) R GAUWITZ HANOVER moves back inside and won his last two from inside posts.

Race 9

There is not much to love in this spot. (1) COCOA BEACH draws inside and drops down; narrow edge. (2) TREVOR BEBE & (3) ROYAL KNOCKOUT ships in from the Meadowlands out of the same race and either could step up.

Race 10

(4) FITZ'S Z TAM drops back in for a claiming tag and actually won his last start for this price. The defection of Dube to (2) UNCLE GOODFELLOW should ensure a good price on a horse with a clear chance. The latter has been racing well and should be forwardly placed. (1) ROADWAY comes off a win; hard to toss.

Race 11

(2) HOOSIER CHATTER has form and moves into a barn that has won nearly 50% of his races during the meet. (1) BO TOX HANOVER has been racing well for much of the year and gets the post one advantage. (4) GROUNDED should be leaving hard and hold for at least a share.

Race 12

(1) NO LIES has speed, form and pylon position. Mare should be looking down the road. (2) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY continues to climb the claiming ladder; sharp. (6) KEENE OLIVIA had no shot from post eight last time. She can play with these and should offer value.

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Piquant, 7-2
(8th) Blue Shark, 7-2


Charles Town (1st) Gitano Boy, 7-2
(6th) Wajir On Me, 9-2


Evangeline Downs (2nd) Barnabas, 8-1
(6th) Elle Blu, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Wildfire Kid, 7-2
(7th) Papa G, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Captain Stan, 3-1
(5th) Goodbyecharlie, 6-1


Keeneland (4th) Peej, 8-1
(7th) Keen Pauline, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Sabbath Bay, 6-1
(5th) Ghostly Games, 9-2


Pimlico (1st) Take Down Two, 7-2
(7th) Harlington Night, 5-1


Santa Anita (3rd) Force, 6-1
(7th) Memphis, 6-1