Weekend Primer
April 17, 2015
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (or vice versa)
Is this an early-season preview for who will be battling it out in the end for the NL West? While I have San Diego winning the division, some people might already be leaning yes to that question, based on Colorado’s impressive start. But just like I pointed out in my MLB Preview, they’ve been doing this seemingly every year under manager Walt Weiss, before ultimately fading when the two cornerstones of the franchise, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, would go down with their inevitable injuries.
In fact, the Rockies started out 23-16 last year and 19-13 in 2013, and being 7-2 at the moment, they’re very much on pace for one of those types of blistering records after the first month-and-change of the campaign. But can they sustain it this time around? Well, if Cargo and Tulo manage to stay healthy over the long haul for once, it’s certainly a valid possibility. At the same time, though, starting pitching is still a concern -- just as it always is in the Rocky Mountains -- but there is some potential in the rotation these days, with Jordan Lyles, Tyler Matzek (one of my top five sleepers, remember), and rookie Eddie Butler standing out in the early going. Maybe there’s something to this start for the Rockies after all.
Speaking of starting pitching concerns, you wouldn’t think the Dodgers would be mired with such an issue, especially as it relates to their reigning MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, but that is exactly the case entering this second weekend of the season. That’s because Kershaw simply has not looked like himself in the early going, as he was a bit shaky on Opening Day versus the Padres, before getting hit hard by the Diamondbacks last Saturday. Is this going to be an on-going problem? Odds are it won’t be, as even the best players across every sport can get out to inauspicious starts in any given year. Kershaw is the unquestionable best pitcher in the game today, a title he’s held for multiple years now, and sometimes, you get a little content mentally when it’s that apparent. It would not be wise to suddenly fade Kershaw from a betting standpoint, as you can bet he’ll get that itch to dominate again and go on one of his trademark brilliant extensive runs sooner than later. The Dodgers also have to be worried about one of their free agent acquisitions for the rotation, Brandon McCarthy, who has a 6.75 ERA through his first two starts. They’re also without Hyun-Jin Ryu for awhile.
As for their offense, the Dodgers are the team right behind Colorado for most runs scored thus far, so they’re hitting has been more than fine. They’ve been led by Adrian Gonzalez, who has probably been the offensive MVP in the early going with his insane .528/.595/1.111 line to go along with a league-leading five homer runs and nine runs batted in. The Dodgers’ lineup is only going to get better once Yasiel Puig gets going, as he’s hitting at only a .222 clip thus far. Regardless, it should be an interesting series between the two highest scoring teams in the National League, and it will be especially compelling for the Rockies, who are trying to see where they measure up in the early going against the class of the division. Interestingly, they also possess the best run differential in the NL at +20. As a result, they might be a sneaky value underdog bet throughout the series, and will probably be given chalk for each game, being that they’re on the road.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
At first glance, this looks like the biggest high-profile series in the AL this weekend. The Red Sox, a last-place resident a year ago in the division, have stormed out of the gate to the tune of a 6-3 start and in first, and will now be pitted against the 2014 division winners, the Orioles, who are 5-4. Unsurprisingly, these are two of the top six teams in all of baseball in runs scored, and that’s a trend that should be very prevalent throughout this critical AL East meeting.
The trend that sticks out most here, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox are an MLB-best 8-1 towards the over (And that one under, which came against Aaron Harang, was a few inches from going over based on Hanley Ramirez just nearly missing a home run late in that game that would’ve won it). They’ve been getting a huge lift from their two prized offseason acquisitions, Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, to go along with an inspired start to the season from young Mookie Betts. Baltimore, meanwhile, has watched its top star, Adam Jones, go off on a torrid start, hitting .406 with four homers and 11 runs batted in. In addition, emerging second baseman Jonathan Schoop has three longballs. With Ubaldo Jimenez vs Joe Kelly slated for game one, we could see the first over of what could be the main theme in this first series of the year between the Orioles and Red Sox.
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
How can you be not intrigued by this series? Both of these clubs haven’t surpassed .500 in several years, but after very active offseasons and solid starts to the 2015 campaign, it’s very possible that both the Padres and Cubs might finish with a winning record when all is said and done. And, perhaps a winning record in the playoffs also. That’s the type of potential each organization has flashed, so the winner of this series could be propelled into quite an expansive run.
San Diego has gotten their best hitting in years -- which is the main area new GM A.J. Preller focused on during the offseason, as they are currently tied for second in the National League in runs scored. Just as notable, they’re 6-4 towards the over thus far after being one of the top unders team in baseball the past handful of seasons. They’re also 3-0 for overs on the road. The Cubs, meanwhile, have received a nice balance of contributions, as they’re flashing power on offense and getting quality pitching, as illustrated by their 3.38 ERA as a team. And it’s only going to get better for them when potential superstar Kris Bryant (I already pegged him as one of the future faces of the game, without question) comes up very soon. This might be a series to generally stay away from in terms of large bets, as these are two even teams at this point in time on similar paths. But it’s definitely worth monitoring to see who pulls it out, and thus will prove further that their early run is legitimate.
Other Weekend Thoughts
-- The Royals have picked up right where they left off a year ago, beginning the 2015 season with a run reminiscent of their genocide of American League opponents last postseason. They had a rematch with the Angels last week and swept them, and now they’ll be squaring off with the team they beat to advance into that ALDS matchup, the Athletics. This will also represent Billy Butler’s return to Kansas City after spending the previous eight years as a Royal. While only 5-5, the A’s have looked better than that, as evident in their impressive +23 run differential. All of those AL West teams are hovering around .500 right now -- and the division lead -- but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Oakland be the first to break from that pack. That’s why this series stands out, as one or both of these teams might be close to a notable streak. It will also be interesting to watch Sonny Gray, who has been fantastic through his first two starts (2-0 towards the over also, ironically), and he carries an attractive -110 price tag for game one against Jeremy Guthrie.
-- Are the Giants already in serious trouble? Since starting 3-1, they’ve lost 7 in a row -- including game one of this important four-game set with the Diamondbacks, a team they need to pick up wins from at home, especially the weekend of their World Series ring ceremony. Or maybe they’re already starting to follow that bizarre pattern where the year after a championship, they struggle or simply miss out on the playoffs. Their starting pitcher has not been good, with Madison Bumgarner being an unlikely culprit. This is also a big series for Arizona, out to a respectable 5-5 start, as they seek to prove last year’s disaster was a fluke. I’m buying the D-backs a little bit overall, with the mindset that they can continue to play quality baseball. Their lineup is underrated (Especially Ender Inciarte) with a notable heart-of-the-order, and now they’ve got Cuban import Yasmany Tomas up in the big leagues. He’ll get going eventually.
-- It looks like the Nationals are snapping out of their early-season funk, now that they have Jayson Worth for their previously dead bat lineup, which was having major problems scoring runs in the first couple of series. They broke out the offense against Boston, and fared well versus Cole Hamels last night in game one of this series against the Phillies. This is also a very nice chance at redemption for Washington, who was embarrassed last weekend by these same Phillies in losing two out of three. After taking the first game, it appears likely the Nats will take at least take two of the next three, if not all of them, beginning with a rematch of former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer facing below-average journeyman Sean O’Sullivan. Philadelphia is seemingly already in the midst of their predicted spiral towards the bottom of the NL.
-- The Tigers have the league’s best record thus far, but I’m curious to see how they do against the White Sox in this weekend set. Detroit is obviously a perennial contender, having won the division four years in a row, and they’ve looked real good these first two weeks thanks in large part to their usual slugging offense. Chicago, however, has a similar blueprint with a powerful lineup of their own, so I’m definitely interested in keeping track of their potential rise this year (I have these teams finishing first and second in the division, actually). The opener will especially be interesting for the White Sox, who are still looking for their first quality start from newcomer Jeff Samardzija. He’ll be tasked with facing Tigers ace David Price.
Fearless Prediction
-- This isn’t so fearless for me, as they were one of my top breakout picks for this year (And their over of 82½ wins was my best bet for the season), but the Mets are going to keep on cruising. They have a four-game series with the Marlins already in progress, and after taking game one, it’s further apparent that they’re for real. Even with David Wright going on the DL, their offense hasn’t missed a beat. Lucas Duda, for example, has developed into a worthy cleanup hitter, and enters the weekend with three consecutive games of having multiple extra-base hits. Their starting pitching, as expected, has also mostly delivered, and this is a good opportunity for them to capitalize on a Miami team that has looked very inconsistent through so far.
