[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Reds-Cards matchup[/h]
MLB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
The second week of the MLB season wraps up on Sunday Night Baseball with theSt. Louis Cardinals making a repeat performance. And the Cardinals are at the same spot they were after their 3-0 opening-night win over the Chicago Cubs: in first place in the NL Central.
St. Louis is 7-3 on the young season and comes into tonight's game against Cincinnati on a four-game winning streak. The Cards also have won four straight against the Reds after dropping the first game of their series last weekend in Cincinnati, then winning the last two games of that series and picking up where they left off with wins in St. Louis on Friday and Saturday. The Cardinals will be no worse than tied for the NL Central lead after tonight, depending on what the Cubs, a game back at 6-4, do during the day.
It's too early to call this a must-win situation for the Cincinnati Reds, but at 5-6, they need a victory to avoid falling 3½ games back.
Let's have Joe Peta and Andrew Lange take opposing views on which side provides more betting value on tonight's matchup, and then I'll make a case for the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals[/h]Westgate lines: Cardinals minus-180/Reds plus-165
Over/under: 7 runs
PickCenter: 51 percent picked Cardinals
Peta: After the first game of the NFL season, the New England Patriots, a team with 11 straight seasons of double-digit regular-season wins and a preseason over/under win total of 11, were 0-1, having lost convincingly to the Miami Dolphins. In the aftermath, the Patriots were derided as old by many who quickly backed off their preseason projections. That, of course, turned out to be a terrible mistake; by season's end, the 12-4 Patriots not only rewarded "over" bettors with winning tickets, they also won their fourth Super Bowl in the Belichick/Brady era.
Why is this relevant to baseball handicappers? Because 10 Major League Baseball games is the equivalent of one NFL game in terms of percentage of the season completed. In other words, it's still too early to back away from preseason projections in handicapping tonight's matchup. And my 2015 projection had the Cardinals materially better than not just the Reds, but every other team in the NL Central, on the road to 92 wins. Look, I'd love to find value in the dog tonight. During tonight's broadcast, you'll certainly hear lots of data suggesting the outlook is bleak for Cincinnati. For instance, a broadcaster might note Billy Hamilton, if he plays, has never put the ball into play versus Adam Wainwright(he's 0-for-7 lifetime with seven K's.) Or they might note that the Reds' bullpen is horrendous, ranking 14th in the NL with an ERA of 4.70. Or possibly that, of late, the Cards have owned the Reds, having already beaten them four out of five games in 2015 and seven of the last eight times they've played in St. Louis.
When I hear a lot of one-sided trends like that, I normally get leery of the favorite, but in truth, tonight's matchup is the most lopsided of the six games this year between the two teams. The difference between Wainwright and Mike Leake gives a far greater edge to the Cardinals than existed in either game the past two nights, when the Reds actually had the edge in starting pitching. While rich at -180, the price to bet the Cardinals tonight probably doesn't account enough for the pitching edge. I have a fair price for both teams around -195/+196. At these prices, a bet against the Cardinals might be a lot more interesting if they were facing a southpaw, but that may be a discussion for another week. For tonight, take the Cardinals, with the expectation that all those trends you hear during the broadcast have a little more life in them.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cardinals minus-180
Lange: After producing a 1.83 ERA the first half of last year, we've seen the human side of Wainwright as the years and innings begin to pile up. Since last year's All-Star break, Wainwright's ERA sits at 3.43 with a well-below-average 6.7 K/9 rate. Wainwright remains an upper-tier NL pitcher, but bettors should be cautious because his current stuff simply doesn't equate to the ace-like prices he often commands in the betting markets.
Leake continues to churn out solid numbers thanks to a steadily rising ground ball rate. Not known for being a hard thrower, Leake, more of a sinkerballer, ranked 12th in MLB with a 53.4 percent GB rate last season. Despite their pedigrees, I don't consider this to be a significant starting pitching mismatch.
As a team, St. Louis is still being priced as the class of the NL Central, and that's unlikely to change anytime soon after its hot 7-3 start (and plus-18 run differential). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is projected to finish below .500, and have received little to no betting market respect to begin the campaign. The Cardinals have some edges, but my numbers make them around a minus-150 favorite, not minus-180.
ESPN Chalk pick: small lean to Reds, plus-165
Tuley: I like's Lange's case for the Reds being undervalued, but also agree with Peta that the Wainwright-Leake matchup goes to the Cards. When I waffle on the side, I look to the total, and I believe the strongest play Sunday night is going under the total of seven runs.
Wainwright is a stud. He hasn't faced the Reds yet this year, and he faced them just once last year -- a 4-0 shutout over Leake, by the way -- but according to our good friends at ESPN Stats & Info, he has dominated several current Reds, including the aforementioned Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto (4-for-30 career against him) and Marlon Byrd (has struck out 12 times in 30 plate appearances).
I'm not expecting the Cardinals to explode, either. They're a solid team, but hardly an offensive juggernaut. They're averaging only 4.1 runs a game so far, and last year they averaged 3.82, the fewest by a division winner since the 1973 Mets (3.78), according to ESPN Stats & Info. This should be a nice defensive battle, with Wainwright dominating and a score of 2-1 or 3-2 in the late innings.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 7 runs
MLB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
The second week of the MLB season wraps up on Sunday Night Baseball with theSt. Louis Cardinals making a repeat performance. And the Cardinals are at the same spot they were after their 3-0 opening-night win over the Chicago Cubs: in first place in the NL Central.
St. Louis is 7-3 on the young season and comes into tonight's game against Cincinnati on a four-game winning streak. The Cards also have won four straight against the Reds after dropping the first game of their series last weekend in Cincinnati, then winning the last two games of that series and picking up where they left off with wins in St. Louis on Friday and Saturday. The Cardinals will be no worse than tied for the NL Central lead after tonight, depending on what the Cubs, a game back at 6-4, do during the day.
It's too early to call this a must-win situation for the Cincinnati Reds, but at 5-6, they need a victory to avoid falling 3½ games back.
Let's have Joe Peta and Andrew Lange take opposing views on which side provides more betting value on tonight's matchup, and then I'll make a case for the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals[/h]Westgate lines: Cardinals minus-180/Reds plus-165
Over/under: 7 runs
PickCenter: 51 percent picked Cardinals
Peta: After the first game of the NFL season, the New England Patriots, a team with 11 straight seasons of double-digit regular-season wins and a preseason over/under win total of 11, were 0-1, having lost convincingly to the Miami Dolphins. In the aftermath, the Patriots were derided as old by many who quickly backed off their preseason projections. That, of course, turned out to be a terrible mistake; by season's end, the 12-4 Patriots not only rewarded "over" bettors with winning tickets, they also won their fourth Super Bowl in the Belichick/Brady era.
Why is this relevant to baseball handicappers? Because 10 Major League Baseball games is the equivalent of one NFL game in terms of percentage of the season completed. In other words, it's still too early to back away from preseason projections in handicapping tonight's matchup. And my 2015 projection had the Cardinals materially better than not just the Reds, but every other team in the NL Central, on the road to 92 wins. Look, I'd love to find value in the dog tonight. During tonight's broadcast, you'll certainly hear lots of data suggesting the outlook is bleak for Cincinnati. For instance, a broadcaster might note Billy Hamilton, if he plays, has never put the ball into play versus Adam Wainwright(he's 0-for-7 lifetime with seven K's.) Or they might note that the Reds' bullpen is horrendous, ranking 14th in the NL with an ERA of 4.70. Or possibly that, of late, the Cards have owned the Reds, having already beaten them four out of five games in 2015 and seven of the last eight times they've played in St. Louis.
When I hear a lot of one-sided trends like that, I normally get leery of the favorite, but in truth, tonight's matchup is the most lopsided of the six games this year between the two teams. The difference between Wainwright and Mike Leake gives a far greater edge to the Cardinals than existed in either game the past two nights, when the Reds actually had the edge in starting pitching. While rich at -180, the price to bet the Cardinals tonight probably doesn't account enough for the pitching edge. I have a fair price for both teams around -195/+196. At these prices, a bet against the Cardinals might be a lot more interesting if they were facing a southpaw, but that may be a discussion for another week. For tonight, take the Cardinals, with the expectation that all those trends you hear during the broadcast have a little more life in them.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cardinals minus-180
Lange: After producing a 1.83 ERA the first half of last year, we've seen the human side of Wainwright as the years and innings begin to pile up. Since last year's All-Star break, Wainwright's ERA sits at 3.43 with a well-below-average 6.7 K/9 rate. Wainwright remains an upper-tier NL pitcher, but bettors should be cautious because his current stuff simply doesn't equate to the ace-like prices he often commands in the betting markets.
Leake continues to churn out solid numbers thanks to a steadily rising ground ball rate. Not known for being a hard thrower, Leake, more of a sinkerballer, ranked 12th in MLB with a 53.4 percent GB rate last season. Despite their pedigrees, I don't consider this to be a significant starting pitching mismatch.
As a team, St. Louis is still being priced as the class of the NL Central, and that's unlikely to change anytime soon after its hot 7-3 start (and plus-18 run differential). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is projected to finish below .500, and have received little to no betting market respect to begin the campaign. The Cardinals have some edges, but my numbers make them around a minus-150 favorite, not minus-180.
ESPN Chalk pick: small lean to Reds, plus-165
Tuley: I like's Lange's case for the Reds being undervalued, but also agree with Peta that the Wainwright-Leake matchup goes to the Cards. When I waffle on the side, I look to the total, and I believe the strongest play Sunday night is going under the total of seven runs.
Wainwright is a stud. He hasn't faced the Reds yet this year, and he faced them just once last year -- a 4-0 shutout over Leake, by the way -- but according to our good friends at ESPN Stats & Info, he has dominated several current Reds, including the aforementioned Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto (4-for-30 career against him) and Marlon Byrd (has struck out 12 times in 30 plate appearances).
I'm not expecting the Cardinals to explode, either. They're a solid team, but hardly an offensive juggernaut. They're averaging only 4.1 runs a game so far, and last year they averaged 3.82, the fewest by a division winner since the 1973 Mets (3.78), according to ESPN Stats & Info. This should be a nice defensive battle, with Wainwright dominating and a score of 2-1 or 3-2 in the late innings.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 7 runs
