Soriano12 MLB Picks 2015

About 95% of the lines I post will be taken from pinnacle, the remainder from thegreek because those are the two books where I put in my wagers. Standard play will be 2units, in theory there might be a 10unit play, but usually I don't place any bets above 6units and there is only a handful of bets per season where I go above 4units.

For anybody that's interested in my track record: I posted in the past from time to time, but never even close to a full season. Last year I posted about 40 picks until I kind of lost interest. I was slightly up at that time, but pretty much just broke even and only earned a nice plus with season win totals.

I lost interest last year because I switched to pitcher prop bets and trading MLB in-play for May/June (easier areas to exploit, but like usual that also means a limited timeframe to bet these before you get limited and/or booted) before travelling to and across Europe for about a month shortly after the allstar break.
But I also stopped betting pregame moneyline/runlines/1st 5 innings/totals because I know from experience that I do best over the first like 3-5 weeks every season. After that in my opinion lines put up by the bookies get much better because books start to catch up on trends and over/underrated players (esp. starting pitchers) while at the beginning of the season they often times put too much value in career stats.
This year I haven't posted anything yet, so the record obviously will be 0-0-0 (win/loss/push).
But fwiw I have gone 12-6-3. The last 12 bets ended up being 9-1-2 (last night CLE +0 1st 5inn -105 with T.Bauer was a winner, while MIN@KC under8 -115 was a bad beat push thanks to some terrible errors), so after a bad start I hope that I turned things around, but it doesn't really say anything because it's just been a couple of bets yet.

So I'll try to keep posting daily for most part for now. Feel free to follow or fade or do whatever you want with it.
If anybody wants to discuss games, feel free to post. Always good to get a 2nd point of view on the same game because we all have a certain angle how we look at games/lines and from time to time tend to overlook or disregard certain aspects that should be taken into account.

Oakland As @ LA Angels
under 8 -115 2units
LAA ML -110 2units

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
HOU ML +105 2units

Pomeranz is a solid pitcher, imo he's still a bit underrated. Last start vs HOU the Astros put up 4 runs in 5IP against him, but he still looked decent and right now I'm not too high on the Angels offense. Last year they were able to score 5runs in 5.1IP on just 4H, but Pomeranz since then has improved his control and in his 2nd start vs LAA went 7 scoreless innings.
Santiago is another very solid starter, he absolutely dominated OAK last season with an 0.77 ERA in 4 starts over 23.1IP. OAKs offense is mediocre, they are also missing Zobrist and with Pestano, Smith and Street the Angels have a very nice backend of the bullpen.
Walker has been anemic in his first two starts, HOU had decent results against him last year and their offense slowly is starting to show some signs of life. McHugh on the other hand has delivered two great starts and in his two starts @SEA last year was almost unhittable. The Astros pen also is very decent with Gregerson doing a good job as their closer, while SEAs bullpen has struggled up to this point. I'm also not too high on SEAs offense aside from red-hot Nelson Cruz and the annually good Cano. But no matter how you slice it, even factoring in homefield advantage, Walker right now shouldn't really be favored above anyone, even less vs someone like McHugh.

Will post two more 1st 5 innings bets once pinnacle puts up the lines.

Team Total Toronto Blue Jays over 4 runs -125 1unit
Lay Bud Norris...that guy just doesn't seem to be right, horrible spring, horrific 1st start vs TOR and mediocre at best against a yankee offense, that is nothing special right now. Toronto always putting up good numbers at home, have been hitting rather well and even though Norris put up great numbers against them last season, he's just not the same pitcher right now and even last year they hit him ok @TOR.

Miami Marlins +0 (1st 5 Innings) -120 2units
Haren so far with two strong starts against bad offensive lineups. Today he gets to face PHI, arguably an even worse offense than his last two opponents. H2H looks good, too, and Jerome Williams is past his prime and even back when he was at his best, he still was mediocre. He's just eating innings for PHI and at some point, the Marlins will start hitting. Either way Haren is still the better pitcher and MIAs offense, even though they're struggling so far, is better than Philly.

That's it for today, actually more bets than usual, stuck to 1-2 bets for most days so far. BOL to all and hopefully we get some good discussions about games going.<iframe id="google_osd_static_frame_1380570291075" name="google_osd_static_frame" style="display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px;"></iframe>

Good tosee you posting , thanks and good luck. :toast:

Yes I think the Toronto lineup will be drooling on themselves in anticipation of the Bud Show coming their way this evening. I am not usually a big fan of betting against the Orioles but will go with Buehrle tonight. Will throw someting on the Toronto over 4-125 also. Good luck tonight everyone.

Will already post my picks for tomorrow:
Cincinnati Reds (J.Cueto) ML -111 2units
Baltimore Orioles (U.Jimenez) ML +105 2units
Boston Red Sox (J.Kelly) ML -106 2units

Cueto one of the best SPs out there, Reds bullpen is crap, but with Cueto usually going at least 7+ innings and a rather impatient Brewers lineup, that doesn't work that many deep counts, bridging a lead to Chapman, the leagues best closer, is not that much of a concern. Brewers offense sucks, missing 2 key pieces with CarGo and Lucroy, also without Ginnett and Braun & Ramirez not hitting anything so far. Nelson put up good starts so far, but is not at the same level like Cueto/Chapman, their bullpen is nothing special and offensively the Votto-lead Reds should also have an advantage vs the current Brewers lineup.
Ubaldo with two great starts so far and has had success in the past vs TORs current hitters. Orioles also feature a pretty good bullpen and a stellar defense. Sanchez did great out of the bullpen last year after his callup, but so far hasn't done anything as a starter and already got roughed up once by the Orioles. The Blue Jays bullpen also has struggled, so I just don't see any reason why they should be favored here.
Like what I've seen so far from Kelly, good velocity & movement and Rays offense pretty hapless with the exception of Souza. Not really that high on their bullpen, but like I said TB not really hitting anything and the Rays pen hasn't been any better. Karns had two decent starts, but BOS has a pretty good offense on paper, even though they have struggled at times. But imo Karns is average at best, so once again imo we get the far better SP backed by a better offense for reduced juice. Tampa has homefield advantage here & is the better defensive team, but BOS/Kelly should still be more like a -120 favorite in this matchup.

Thanks for the write ups. Tailed you. Easy Toronto over.

Good Luck this season Buddy :toast:

You married yet ? @)

Betallsports said:

Good Luck this season Buddy :toast:

You married yet ? @)

Click to expand...

Thanks, same to you.

Not yet, working on it though. face)(*^%

Lets go Astros, rally time...

4-1-0 +5.85

Picks for Wednesday are already up, I doubt that I'll add anything else, so best of luck to all.

Will add one more
San Diego Padres -1 +106

Shields rocksolid, 2 typical starts, then another decent performance at Wrigley but ended up with an inflated line due to one bad inning. But his stuff looked good and COL, even though I like their offense, so far hasn't caught fire yet: CarGo and Mourneau hitting around a combined .200, Arenado missed some time lately because of an injured wrist, so lets see if he plays tonight and if that small injury affects him at the plate. Wrist injuries always can be tricky when it comes to batting. SD also plays very good defense so far and with guys like Thayer, Benoit and Kimbrel they own arguably the best bullpen. Shields also decent h2h numbers vs the current Rockies batters and did well in last years start @Coors.
Kendrick was stellar in his 1st start and got absolutely bombed in the next two: In his lone appearance at Coors this year he gave up 3HRs and over those two anemic starts he walked 9 besides giving up 1HR and a shitload of hits. SDs new offense is good, they have power and guys that are patient enough to draw walks and Kendrick always had a tendency to walk guys. Add in Segal and his miniature strike zone behind homeplate tonight and the Padres should have a field day tonight. Rockies a very strong defensive team, but on the downside their bullpen is crap.

Great day thanks for the post

Like all the picks although I am a lttle wary of Toronto. Bautista and Encarnacion bashed 3 taters between them last night and those guys tend to be streaky. Being a Red Sox fan I have watched Kelly and really like what I have seen so far. Red Sox offense scares me lately though. They only scored their run last night because Mookie Betts slid hard into second and the throw to first was an 87 footer. Hanigan plodded home for a freebie. The Reds look like a good price and most bettors are autofading the Brewers right now. Those guys are eating good steak every night. Always like to bet Shields but I have a "no Coors Field" policy. Good luck on your plays.

5-4-0 -0.27

1-3 for the night, could have easily been 3-1. BOS blowing a 5-1 lead in the 6th, Padres blowing a 1run lead in the 8th. Just wasn't meant to be tonight. So far I don't like anything tomorrow, maybe a team total in the TOR game but will have to wait for the line.

Oakland As +0 (1st 5 Inn) +106 2units
LA Dodgers +0 (1st 5 Inn) -115 1unit
Team Total LAD over 3.5 runs -105 1unit
Team Total BAL over 4 runs +100 1unit

Chavez good spring, very strong in his appearances up to now and performed well vs LAA last season, especially early on before his workload expectedly caught up to him. I also think the Angels offense is overrated, Tropeano nothing special, even at AAA his results were mediocre and even though OAK is no offensive juggernaut, I think they match up quite well vs this kind of pitcher and usually take advantage of those spots. Plus guys like Butler are hitting quite well so far.
Bolsinger started great at AAA and I still don't like the Giants offense without Pence, not hitting that well and don't see why that should change against an unproven starter like Bolsinger, but one who seems to be in quite good shape. Vogelsong otoh had a rough spring and so far has been horrific during regular season. LAD scored only two runs in each of the first two games at AT&T park and home plate ump Manny Gonzalez has a quite generous strike zone while AT&T is favoring the under, too, but LA on paper has a strong offensive team, they were hitting well before this series and had success vs Vogelsong even in the past when he was throwing way better than this year.
Orioles hit Hutchison well in their 1st encounter, Hutchison struggled again in his next start at home and Tripp Gibson III has a rather small strike zone, esp. down low he's hesitant to call close pitches. Orioles have some power in their lineup and good highball hitters, so if you have to pitch a bit more up in the zone, that's not a good spot to be in vs them. Bullpen has been shaky and I doubt they will hit in as many double plays as they did last night.

Angels get one hit, a two run homer, and win first 5 and the game. Just another night of gambling I guess...

7-6-0 -2.32

St Louis Cardinals -1 +103
Martinez so far has pitched very good in spring training and his first regular season appearances & this year can focus on his starting routine instead of going back & forth between starting and pitching in relief. He had great performances vs MIL last year, struggled once in the only game he started vs them, but
a) is he a fulltime starter now
b) he has progressed as a pitcher in the 2nd half of last year and continued this trend this year
c) MIL doesn't field the same offense
Brewers still missing 3 key players, some others like Braun/Ramirez aren't hitting yet and their offense currently might be the worst in the majors. Cards Bullpen is topnotch, their defense also is pretty good and they can hit.
Garza sucked so far, imo he's been overrated for years now. Had his best start vs STL this year, giving up only 2R (just 1 of those was an ER). But he still gave up 6H and 5BB in just 5.2IP, so getting away with just 2R is an Houdini act he probably just manages once every 50 games. Also Holliday (11/28 2doubles), Adams (7/12 2doubles 1HR), Peralta (14/34 2doubles 1HR) & Jay (9/16 2doubles 1HR) are crushing him lifetime. Brewers pen also hittable.

Yes, in general betting road chalk in MLB isn't the best idea, but imo this spot warrants a bet because if STL wins, there's a pretty good shot that they do so by 2 or more runs.