<header class="article-header">How to bet Sunday night's Mets-Yankees matchup
</header><figure class="article-figure">Getty Images</figure> Each Sunday, ESPN Chalk's experts in Las Vegas will give their takes on the Sunday Night Baseball game, determining where the betting value lies. Here is the analysis for the matchup between the New York Mets and New York Yankees from Joe Peta and Andrew Lange.
New York Mets (Jonathon Niese) at New York Yankees (Nathan Eovaldi)
Westgate lines: Mets plus-125/Yankees minus-135
Over/under: 8 runs, minus-120 to the under
PickCenter: 63 percent picked the Mets
Peta: We're three weeks into the 2015 season, and without a doubt, the Yankees stand out as the sport's biggest surprise. Talk about utterly unpredictable: Not a single player who has batted or pitched for the Yankees this season has been on the disabled list. Maybe you really can't predict baseball.
Of course, the real story Sunday night is that coming off of Matt Harvey's near-complete game as part of a 7-2 victory Saturday afternoon, the Mets have won 12 out of 13 games. At 14-4, they have the best record in baseball. For bettors, the real shock Saturday was that shortly before first pitch, Harvey and the Mets were plus-120 underdogs against a clearly diminishing CC Sabathia.
That makes Sunday night's line -- with the Mets available at plus-125 when lines opened -- curious. Niese is one of the emerging arms in a rotation that is the source of excitement in Queens, but he's no Harvey. There are certainly some who might argue Sabathia has nothing on Nathan Eovaldi at this stage of their careers. However, from a handicapping perspective, there is a key factor on both rosters that makes the Mets nearly as good a value as they were with Harvey on the mound, despite the similar price: The Mets, thanks to the presence of three left-handed batters (Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda) with severe lifetime-handedness splits, actually project to score more runs off a right-handed pitcher (Eovaldi) than a left-handed one (Sabathia).
On the other side of the coin, the Yankees have a lineup that consists almost entirely of batters who hit better against righties than lefties, and tonight's opponent, Niese, is a southpaw. When light-hitting Didi Gregorius is penciled in against lefties (he has started three of the five times New York has faced a left-handed starter in 2015) the Yankees are practically fielding a NL lineup, with Gregorius standing in for the pitcher.
Those handedness splits are the basis for the hidden value on the Mets tonight. It's not quite as favorable a set-up as yesterday (where I contend a "wrong team favored" situation existed), but I've got tonight's game graded at Yankees minus-102, so the pick Sunday night is still clear. Take the Mets and retire all the 50 Shades of Shea jokes; for bettors, it's no longer torture backing the Mets.
ESPN Chalk pick: Mets (plus-125)
Lange: Miami's decision to trade Eovaldi was absolutely baffling. He's a 25-year-old with top-notch velocity and movement and a very high ceiling. Would you rather have that or a player like Mat Latos on the downside of his career? It's no coincidence that under the brief tutelage of Larry Rothschild and the Yankees we've already seen improvement, as Eovaldi currently sports a 3.12 ERA through three starts. And after facing the likes of Boston, Detroit, and Baltimore, Eovaldi should be good to go against a banged-up Mets' lineup.
Niese is reportedly throwing pain-free after limping through much of last season with a bum wing. He has a 1.50 ERA, but he has certainly been on the somewhat fortunate side, with a 91.6 percent left-on-base rate. Matchup-wise, Niese has always been a little tougher on lefties, which is a nice attribute to have against a Yankees lineup that is far better suited to face a right-hander. That said, I have a big "buy" sign on Eovaldi, and I would look his way as well as under the total of 8.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees minus-135; under 8
New York Mets (Jonathon Niese) at New York Yankees (Nathan Eovaldi)
Westgate lines: Mets plus-125/Yankees minus-135
Over/under: 8 runs, minus-120 to the under
PickCenter: 63 percent picked the Mets
Peta: We're three weeks into the 2015 season, and without a doubt, the Yankees stand out as the sport's biggest surprise. Talk about utterly unpredictable: Not a single player who has batted or pitched for the Yankees this season has been on the disabled list. Maybe you really can't predict baseball.
Of course, the real story Sunday night is that coming off of Matt Harvey's near-complete game as part of a 7-2 victory Saturday afternoon, the Mets have won 12 out of 13 games. At 14-4, they have the best record in baseball. For bettors, the real shock Saturday was that shortly before first pitch, Harvey and the Mets were plus-120 underdogs against a clearly diminishing CC Sabathia.
That makes Sunday night's line -- with the Mets available at plus-125 when lines opened -- curious. Niese is one of the emerging arms in a rotation that is the source of excitement in Queens, but he's no Harvey. There are certainly some who might argue Sabathia has nothing on Nathan Eovaldi at this stage of their careers. However, from a handicapping perspective, there is a key factor on both rosters that makes the Mets nearly as good a value as they were with Harvey on the mound, despite the similar price: The Mets, thanks to the presence of three left-handed batters (Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda) with severe lifetime-handedness splits, actually project to score more runs off a right-handed pitcher (Eovaldi) than a left-handed one (Sabathia).
On the other side of the coin, the Yankees have a lineup that consists almost entirely of batters who hit better against righties than lefties, and tonight's opponent, Niese, is a southpaw. When light-hitting Didi Gregorius is penciled in against lefties (he has started three of the five times New York has faced a left-handed starter in 2015) the Yankees are practically fielding a NL lineup, with Gregorius standing in for the pitcher.
Those handedness splits are the basis for the hidden value on the Mets tonight. It's not quite as favorable a set-up as yesterday (where I contend a "wrong team favored" situation existed), but I've got tonight's game graded at Yankees minus-102, so the pick Sunday night is still clear. Take the Mets and retire all the 50 Shades of Shea jokes; for bettors, it's no longer torture backing the Mets.
ESPN Chalk pick: Mets (plus-125)
Lange: Miami's decision to trade Eovaldi was absolutely baffling. He's a 25-year-old with top-notch velocity and movement and a very high ceiling. Would you rather have that or a player like Mat Latos on the downside of his career? It's no coincidence that under the brief tutelage of Larry Rothschild and the Yankees we've already seen improvement, as Eovaldi currently sports a 3.12 ERA through three starts. And after facing the likes of Boston, Detroit, and Baltimore, Eovaldi should be good to go against a banged-up Mets' lineup.
Niese is reportedly throwing pain-free after limping through much of last season with a bum wing. He has a 1.50 ERA, but he has certainly been on the somewhat fortunate side, with a 91.6 percent left-on-base rate. Matchup-wise, Niese has always been a little tougher on lefties, which is a nice attribute to have against a Yankees lineup that is far better suited to face a right-hander. That said, I have a big "buy" sign on Eovaldi, and I would look his way as well as under the total of 8.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees minus-135; under 8
