Welcome to another week of Sunday Night Baseball on the YES Network, simulcast by ESPN.
We joke, of course, but it's only May 3 and the New York Yankees are looking to extend their 2015 ESPN Sunday Night Baseball record to 3-0.
They're also looking to go 3-0 in this series, having won a pair of low-scoring games in Fenway Park to begin the weekend. Curiously, however, the Yankees are an even bigger underdog tonight than they were in the first two games. What's curious about that is the Boston Red Sox are sending Joe Kelly and his 4.94 ERA to the mound tonight. Nevertheless, that's what we're looking at, as the oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas have Boston minus-128 over the Yankees plus-118 after opening at minus-132/plus-122. (That must not be too strange, because the lines at other sports books are in the same ballpark).
As we do every Sunday at ESPN Chalk, our MLB Vegas experts will give their thoughts on this matchup from a betting perspective. We'll start with Joe Peta and Andrew Lange taking opposing views on which side provides more betting value, then Dave Tuley will make a case for the over/under.
[h=2]New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox[/h]Westgate lines: Red Sox minus-128/Yankees plus-118
Over/under: 9 runs (under minus-125)
PickCenter: 51 percent picked Yankees
Peta: Kelly has not been as bad through his first four starts as his ERA suggests, having struck out an eye-opening 28.9 percent of the batters he has faced (tied for eighth among 124 starters with 20-plus innings pitched), which is in sharp contrast to his career strikeout rate of 16.5 percent. Even phasing in some of that improvement based on the first 100 batters Kelly has faced this year, I can't get close to calling the Red Sox a minus-130 favorite. Not with their defense being almost as below-average as expected, not with New York's lineup designed to feast on right-handed pitching, and not with a Yankees bullpen that has been dominant (though Dellin Betances could be unavailable tonight due to recent usage).
It'd be tough to predict the Yankees would win this matchup more than 50 percent of the time, as the Red Sox do have the superior lineup and Adam Warren is at best a No. 3 starter. But there's value on the underdog tonight; take the Yankees at substantial plus money.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees plus-118
Lange: Similar to New York's Nathan Eovaldi, who we talked about last week, Boston's Kelly possesses a big fastball, swing-and-miss stuff and a lot of upside. In Kelly's last start against Toronto, his fastball and sinker were both clocked north of 95 mph, and it resulted in 10 strikeouts in six innings. Opposing batters have a tendency to "square up" Kelly when he misses his spots, but overall, 28 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings is a positive sign.
Unlike Kelly, I don't think New York's Warren has the stuff to stick as a full-time starter in the American League. He seems far better suited for a middle-relief role, though the Yankees typically do a good job getting their younger pitchers prepared to compete. The bottom line here is Kelly has potential, while Warren appears to be little more than a stopgap. Also, Kelly doesn't show much of a career split (.249 vs. right-handed hitters, .256 vs. lefties), which should help his cause against a Yankees lineup that can go as many as eight deep from the left side.
Despite the Red Sox losing the first two games in the series, I feel they are the right side to pick, though I'd be hesitant to lay more than minus-130. The overall gap between both teams and starting pitchers is minimal. It's a minus-120 game that the betting markets could very easily push to minus-140 and beyond. ESPN Chalk pick: Red Sox minus-130 or better
Tuley: It's very tempting to take the Yankees as an underdog tonight. Oddsmakers (and bettors, for that matter) have been slow to adjust from the preseason expectations that the Red Sox would win the AL East, while the Yankees would be an also-ran. Yet here we are a month into the season and the Yankees are in first place at 15-9 and the Red Sox are a mere .500 team at 12-12. Still, I believe the stronger play tonight is the over. On the heels of my colleagues taking knocks at both team's starting pitchers in building their individual cases, I see both those arguments as an endorsement for the offenses to dominate Sunday night. Despite Friday and Saturday's games both finishing under to drag down these teams' over/under records, they're still clear over teams; the Red Sox are 15-9 to the over, while the Yankees are 13-10-1. And they're both 3-1 when these starters have taken the mound. Some books have the total at 8.5 runs with heavier juice on the over, but I'll take the plus-money at over-9.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (plus-105)
We joke, of course, but it's only May 3 and the New York Yankees are looking to extend their 2015 ESPN Sunday Night Baseball record to 3-0.
They're also looking to go 3-0 in this series, having won a pair of low-scoring games in Fenway Park to begin the weekend. Curiously, however, the Yankees are an even bigger underdog tonight than they were in the first two games. What's curious about that is the Boston Red Sox are sending Joe Kelly and his 4.94 ERA to the mound tonight. Nevertheless, that's what we're looking at, as the oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas have Boston minus-128 over the Yankees plus-118 after opening at minus-132/plus-122. (That must not be too strange, because the lines at other sports books are in the same ballpark).
As we do every Sunday at ESPN Chalk, our MLB Vegas experts will give their thoughts on this matchup from a betting perspective. We'll start with Joe Peta and Andrew Lange taking opposing views on which side provides more betting value, then Dave Tuley will make a case for the over/under.
[h=2]New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox[/h]Westgate lines: Red Sox minus-128/Yankees plus-118
Over/under: 9 runs (under minus-125)
PickCenter: 51 percent picked Yankees
Peta: Kelly has not been as bad through his first four starts as his ERA suggests, having struck out an eye-opening 28.9 percent of the batters he has faced (tied for eighth among 124 starters with 20-plus innings pitched), which is in sharp contrast to his career strikeout rate of 16.5 percent. Even phasing in some of that improvement based on the first 100 batters Kelly has faced this year, I can't get close to calling the Red Sox a minus-130 favorite. Not with their defense being almost as below-average as expected, not with New York's lineup designed to feast on right-handed pitching, and not with a Yankees bullpen that has been dominant (though Dellin Betances could be unavailable tonight due to recent usage).
It'd be tough to predict the Yankees would win this matchup more than 50 percent of the time, as the Red Sox do have the superior lineup and Adam Warren is at best a No. 3 starter. But there's value on the underdog tonight; take the Yankees at substantial plus money.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees plus-118
Lange: Similar to New York's Nathan Eovaldi, who we talked about last week, Boston's Kelly possesses a big fastball, swing-and-miss stuff and a lot of upside. In Kelly's last start against Toronto, his fastball and sinker were both clocked north of 95 mph, and it resulted in 10 strikeouts in six innings. Opposing batters have a tendency to "square up" Kelly when he misses his spots, but overall, 28 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings is a positive sign.
Unlike Kelly, I don't think New York's Warren has the stuff to stick as a full-time starter in the American League. He seems far better suited for a middle-relief role, though the Yankees typically do a good job getting their younger pitchers prepared to compete. The bottom line here is Kelly has potential, while Warren appears to be little more than a stopgap. Also, Kelly doesn't show much of a career split (.249 vs. right-handed hitters, .256 vs. lefties), which should help his cause against a Yankees lineup that can go as many as eight deep from the left side.
Despite the Red Sox losing the first two games in the series, I feel they are the right side to pick, though I'd be hesitant to lay more than minus-130. The overall gap between both teams and starting pitchers is minimal. It's a minus-120 game that the betting markets could very easily push to minus-140 and beyond. ESPN Chalk pick: Red Sox minus-130 or better
Tuley: It's very tempting to take the Yankees as an underdog tonight. Oddsmakers (and bettors, for that matter) have been slow to adjust from the preseason expectations that the Red Sox would win the AL East, while the Yankees would be an also-ran. Yet here we are a month into the season and the Yankees are in first place at 15-9 and the Red Sox are a mere .500 team at 12-12. Still, I believe the stronger play tonight is the over. On the heels of my colleagues taking knocks at both team's starting pitchers in building their individual cases, I see both those arguments as an endorsement for the offenses to dominate Sunday night. Despite Friday and Saturday's games both finishing under to drag down these teams' over/under records, they're still clear over teams; the Red Sox are 15-9 to the over, while the Yankees are 13-10-1. And they're both 3-1 when these starters have taken the mound. Some books have the total at 8.5 runs with heavier juice on the over, but I'll take the plus-money at over-9.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (plus-105)
